Brewers at Cubs; Thursday, August 21 @ 1:20 p.m.: Quinn Priester (3.48 ERA, 4.32 FIP) vs. Shota Imanaga (3.06 ERA, 4.32 FIP)

[treego14]

[treego14]

The FIP's are even ... first place we are still cleavin' ...

We're bobbin' and weavin' !!!

And if we lose, I will be wheezin!

Come on, Brewers ... enough with the teasin' !!!!!

NL Central championship is the reason for the season!

Win, and we'll be breezin' !!!

No more Counsell pleasin' !!!!!

[torts]

I mean, this has been a really good series, at no point in any of the last 3 games have I felt like the brewers can't still win!  Some tough luck last night, but ready to see them bounce back today!  

Lessasgooooo!!!!!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Cubs are a solid team. No doubt about that.

The Brewers are better, though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Get a win!

[duewizard]

We need to win today. 2-3 in a 5 game series is not terrible. 1-4 is a lot worse.

Get this win and go trounce the scuffling Giants!

[HarryDoyle]

I’m going to go ahead and call this game a must win for both teams. Win and the odds of a division title are in the 90 percentile. Lose and it’s a coin flip.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

30 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

I’m going to go ahead and call this game a must win for both teams. Win and the odds of a division title are in the 90 percentile. Lose and it’s a coin flip.

That sounds...off. The difference between 7GB and 5GB with 34 games left, is 40%?

The Brewers will remain a heavy favorite if they lose 10-0 today. There is a lot of losing left in the Cubs yet. 5GB with 34 games is completely within the realm of falling into 2nd place, but I would guess the odds are more like 80%. Most of us would feel the same about any other 2 teams, we're just emotional because it's us.

Even with the Brewers finishing those 34 games something like 15-19, time is working against the Cubs.

[torts]

29 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

That sounds...off. The difference between 7GB and 5GB with 34 games left, is 40%?

The Brewers will remain a heavy favorite if they lose 10-0 today. There is a lot of losing left in the Cubs yet. 5GB with 34 games is completely within the realm of falling into 2nd place, but I would guess the odds are more like 80%. Most of us would feel the same about any other 2 teams, we're just emotional because it's us.

Even with the Brewers finishing those 34 games something like 15-19, time is working against the Cubs.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

So, for perspective. A Cubs victory today would put them on a trajectory to finish 93-69 (maybe 94-68 but the rounding is right between those two numbers). That's finishing the season at the same pace they've shown over 129 games, good for the 4th best record in baseball this morning. So it's not like they've been bad.

A 15-19 finish would keep the Brewers in first place. The Cubs could certainly finish ahead of that pace, but it just illustrates the Brewers still have a healthy margin for error. They can still mess up and leg this out. The Cubs most likely have to play above pace, and if the Brewers even play under their pace considerably, but just don't melt, they probably still hang on. 

[HarryDoyle]

31 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

That sounds...off. The difference between 7GB and 5GB with 34 games left, is 40%?

The Brewers will remain a heavy favorite if they lose 10-0 today. There is a lot of losing left in the Cubs yet. 5GB with 34 games is completely within the realm of falling into 2nd place, but I would guess the odds are more like 80%. Most of us would feel the same about any other 2 teams, we're just emotional because it's us.

Even with the Brewers finishing those 34 games something like 15-19, time is working against the Cubs.

Sure, if you just take mathematics into account. What about intangibles like momentum, confidence and strength of schedule? Coming into this series, the Brewers had the opportunity to step on the necks of the Cubs,but a loss today effectively resurrects their season to where they were pre All Star break. Arguably the best team in the NL. The players can say all the right things to the press but human nature suggests there’s reason to be concerned. One thing we can hang our hat on is they have a three city West Coast trip after today and those are always tough no matter the opponent.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

6 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

,but a loss today effectively resurrects their season to where they were pre All Star break. Arguably the best team in the NL. The players can say all the right things to the press but human nature suggests there’s reason to be concerned.

At the All Star Game, the Cubs were 1 game ahead 66 games left. Today, they are not even close to that circumstance so that just isn't true.

I will be concerned if the lead shrinks to 2 or 3 within the next week. I am genuinely not worried at the moment, not with how these games have looked, with who we've chosen to throw, and who we are still missing. It's actually comical to me, the freakout session happening, still 6 up after going like 26-4. Did people think we weren't going to lose consecutive games again? It's simply just not panic time.

[Nola Beery]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

...There is a lot of losing left in the Cubs yet....

I like that thought! Let's hope we start their newest losing streak today.

[tmwiese55]

Yes, if MKE wins today they will have lost a whopping .5 games in the standings over the last week.  Sure, it wasn't a good week as you could've essentially ended it  and have instead let them linger.  But its far from panic time.  As of now, there's no reason to think the team is going to have a meltdown type finish to blow it. And really, with the abundance of pitching on the team it would be shocking if that happens.

[Brian]

45 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Yes, if MKE wins today they will have lost a whopping .5 games in the standings over the last week.  Sure, it wasn't a good week as you could've essentially ended it  and have instead let them linger.  But its far from panic time.  As of now, there's no reason to think the team is going to have a meltdown type finish to blow it. And really, with the abundance of pitching on the team it would be shocking if that happens.

But if they lose they will have lost 2 1/2 correct? 

[Jake McKibbin]

 

 

[RobertCrawley]

I agree with folks here. We need this win. It feels like a tipping point in the season.

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

So, for perspective. A Cubs victory today would put them on a trajectory to finish 93-69 (maybe 94-68 but the rounding is right between those two numbers). That's finishing the season at the same pace they've shown over 129 games, good for the 4th best record in baseball this morning. So it's not like they've been bad.

A 15-19 finish would keep the Brewers in first place. The Cubs could certainly finish ahead of that pace, but it just illustrates the Brewers still have a healthy margin for error. They can still mess up and leg this out. The Cubs most likely have to play above pace, and if the Brewers even play under their pace considerably, but just don't melt, they probably still hang on. 

Well, that’s assuming the Cubs playing the same. I think the concern is the Cubs getting hot at the right (wrong) time, not necessarily playing at the same pace they have. 

It’s not they couldn’t go 25-9 to finish the season. Sounds extreme, but as you said we just went 26-4.

In the same amount of time as there is between now and the end of the season, they’ve lost 8.5 games on us, just for perspective. 

Winning today would go a long ways.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

5 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

 

Winning today would go a long ways.

I mean...kinda? I think it means a lot more to this forum than reality. With the tiebreaker out the window this isn't really any different from beating the Giants and the Cubs dropping a game on any other day. Time is on the Brewers side though, so I would think that the odds shift pretty drastically each day the Cubs don't pick up a game. 

It's an important game; all of them from this point on are important, but the point stands that the odds are on our side even with a loss today, likely overwhelmingly so. We're just seeing recency bias collide with emotion.

[Underachiever]

Let's put this in proper perspective: I really want them to win today. 

Most things are about me. Ask my wife.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

1 hour ago, HarryDoyle said:

Sure, if you just take mathematics into account. What about intangibles like momentum, confidence and strength of schedule? Coming into this series, the Brewers had the opportunity to step on the necks of the Cubs,but a loss today effectively resurrects their season to where they were pre All Star break. Arguably the best team in the NL. The players can say all the right things to the press but human nature suggests there’s reason to be concerned. One thing we can hang our hat on is they have a three city West Coast trip after today and those are always tough no matter the opponent.

I think intangibles are meaningful, but I'd still bet on math.

I do agree about the Cubs schedule being tougher in actuality than in theory. 

My take is: there's SO much baseball that most of it is meaningless. In order to make it meaningful, we pile all kinds of emotional narratives on top of it. Sometimes, this makes things joyful and borderline mystical (the 14-game streak, Uecker magic, etc.). Sometimes, it makes things stressful and gut-wrenching (the last three days). In both cases, the emotional narrative is valid and meaningful but missing significant parts of the underlying reality.

This is why I find baseball to be a good teacher. It is constantly forcing you to evaluate your subjective experience against things more objective. That back and forth is very human.

[Turning2]

Contreras is due for some of his solid contact to not fly directly at someone.. A couple other guys as well. The past few games would have ended differently had some of those lasers been hit 30 feet to either side of the defender. 

[young guns]

A win today put this series at what I had as acceptable before it started.  It's just a bummer having lost 3 in a row and the possibility of today.

 

I brewieve in priester!

[BruisedCrew]

Maybe we should ask Brock for his comments about how comfortable a team should feel with a 5 game lead over another team on August 21. A Twins fan would have an interesting perspective on that. 

At the time they may have been more focused on the division race and not so much the wild card race bubbling behind them. But they provided the most recent example of how much can happen in 5 weeks and how having one of the best records in MLB for a few months after a bad start does not preclude a rough finish. 

[BruisedCrew]

On the subject of the 2024 Twins I came across this  item that adds to my skepticism about the significance (if not the validity) of Deserved Wins.
 

Unlucky 2024 Twins

IMHO, measures like this and xBA that look at exit velocity and launch angle but ignore where a ball is hit relative to defensive  positioning are seriously flawed.

But, if they provide an excuse and consolation for some fans when their team loses I guess they have some value