Giants at Brewers; Saturday, August 23 @ 6:10 p.m.: Freddy Peralta (2.78 ERA, 3.70 FIP) vs. Logan Webb (3.19 ERA, 2.56 FIP)

[willie key]

31 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

I don’t think Miz is a major league starter (at least - not yet)

He’s had a few great games, a few okay games, and several bad games

His greatest strength - he throws the ball really fast

I hope he’s not in the playoff rotation UNLESS he shows drastic improvement in consistency between now & then

His wildness (too many walks) has been on display at every level of pro ball

Miz needs to grow up a little.    Plus if he can only pitch 3-4 innings at most I’m not even a big fan of him starting the rest of the year.  We have too many dudes like that

[BruisedCrew]

4 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Strength of schedule is such a phony thing in baseball. The best teams lose 70 games. A bunch of them to "weak" teams. I've never put any stock into how a schedule looks in baseball. 

I would still rather be playing the Rockies and Nationals than the Blue Jays and Phillies.

The advantage the Cubs have over the Brewers in schedule strength is most pronounced in the next two weeks as the Brewers finish with the Giants (vs Webb and Ray) and then play the DBacks, Blue Jays, and Phillies. Meanwhile the Cubs finish with the Angels, then face the Giants (no Webb or Ray), Rockies, and Braves. 
 

Contreras said after the game last night that the team is a little tired. With no off days until the day after Labor Day (in the middle of the Phillies series) this is going to be a big test.

[Brian]

1 hour ago, edfunderburk said:

I don’t think Miz is a major league starter (at least - not yet)

He’s had a few great games, a few okay games, and several bad games

His greatest strength - he throws the ball really fast

I hope he’s not in the playoff rotation UNLESS he shows drastic improvement in consistency between now & then

His wildness (too many walks) has been on display at every level of pro ball

Yes and he has progressively gotten worse month after month at the MLB level. Plus his AS appearance may have given him an exaggerated sense of his abilities.  

[markedman5]

 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

20 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I would still rather be playing the Rockies and Nationals than the Blue Jays and Phillies.

The advantage the Cubs have over the Brewers in schedule strength is most pronounced in the next two weeks as the Brewers finish with the Giants (vs Webb and Ray) and then play the DBacks, Blue Jays, and Phillies. Meanwhile the Cubs finish with the Angels, then face the Giants (no Webb or Ray), Rockies, and Braves. 
 

Contreras said after the game last night that the team is a little tired. With no off days until the day after Labor Day (in the middle of the Phillies series) this is going to be a big test.

There are a million websites out there now, but Fangraphs has the Mets catching the Phillies as more likely than the Cubs catching the Brewers. They are putting us at 93%. 

The Cubs aren't going to catch the Brewers. The Cubs never really hit a terrible stretch and yet they kept losing ground. The 26-4 stretch killed them. It's not going to happen. The Brewers can revert to average, they can very likely finish the reminder under .500 and it won't matter. But they won't, because they are the best team this year. 

[82brewcrew82]

23 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I would still rather be playing the Rockies and Nationals than the Blue Jays and Phillies.

The advantage the Cubs have over the Brewers in schedule strength is most pronounced in the next two weeks as the Brewers finish with the Giants (vs Webb and Ray) and then play the DBacks, Blue Jays, and Phillies. Meanwhile the Cubs finish with the Angels, then face the Giants (no Webb or Ray), Rockies, and Braves. 
 

Contreras said after the game last night that the team is a little tired. With no off days until the day after Labor Day (in the middle of the Phillies series) this is going to be a big test.

Obviously I'd rather have the Cubs schedule but if the FO and coaching are as good as this board thinks theey are, my assumption would be that they have a plan, are prepared for multiple scenarios and will navigate it just fine.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

I wouldn’t really say strength of schedule is  “phony”. The records don’t lie, over the course of 162 games the good teams are winning a lot, maybe 100 games for the best, and then progressively less as you go down the line until you get to the worst teams at 50-60.

So logic follows that over the course of a seasons’ time, you’re going to have a higher percentage chance of beating poor teams, which will lose more overall, than the very good team who will lose less. 

Is it overblown? Sometimes, because it’s just one factor. How your team is playing at one particular time matters, how hot, how healthy, etc.  And obviously there are individual exceptions, some contenders have certain poor teams that they struggle with while some poor teams may have the number of a high end team. 

It's phony (ok, overblown) because a standalone baseball game is MUCH more left to chance than football and basketball. 

Best part is, if you look at the >.500 standings, nobody is even good at it except for...the Brewers. They are 16 games over. 

The Cubs, Dodgers and Phillies are a combined 4 over, and that's all Philly. The other 2 are .500. 

What's more, most of these bad teams are something like 31-35 against >.500.  They're beating them all the time. 

[folly412]

26 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

 

• Rodriguez is on the roster but hasn't been good in AAA since the rain delay game and subsequent injury
• It would be normal rest for Patrick
• Myers would be the best pick, but will require a phantom IL placement to bring up
• Gasser would be the dark horse, but he only just went 4 IP for the first time on Tuesday so it would be a short start.  

Edit: Seems to be a fairly credible source saying it's the dark horse 

 

[DesertBrew52]

6 hours ago, Brian said:

You have got to be kidding?  With an ERA 2.05 last 30 games and 1.26 last fifteen games is concerning?  You talk as if these guys are some type of repetitive precision robotc machine 1000 out of 1000 pitches. 

Well said. And certainly better to have a bad luck hit and spiked pitch now than when it matters most. 
 

I think my 2024 NLWC sad self took over for a bit…

 

 

[adambr2]

15 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

It's phony (ok, overblown) because a standalone baseball game is MUCH more left to chance than football and basketball. 

Best part is, if you look at the >.500 standings, nobody is even good at it except for...the Brewers. They are 16 games over. 

The Cubs, Dodgers and Phillies are a combined 4 over, and that's all Philly. The other 2 are .500. 

What's more, most of these bad teams are something like 31-35 against >.500.  They're beating them all the time. 

Yeah, I would mostly agree with that, the difference between teams is less than people realize. If the Cubs had a months’ worth of games against the Rockies, that would be a little concerning but that’s obviously not the case.

I guess our common ground consensus here is that strength of schedule especially over a 1 month span is pretty marginal.

[markedman5]

.It certainly could be Gasser I guess but I wouldn’t call Wright a credible source.

He posts a lot of BS 

[markedman5]

 

[BruisedCrew]

Maybe the thinking for tomorrow is to start a lefty and hope he can go 3 or 4 innings and then follow up with Meyers instead of starting with a RHP

if those 2 guys can cover 6 then you can see what kind of game you have and go from there. 

[edfunderburk]

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

 

Gasser? Followed by CRod?

[BruisedCrew]

14 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

 

I was wondering if Turang, Monasterio, and Megill would be having any after affects from their meetings with balls  last night.

I wouldn’t expect to be seeing Megill for a third straight day anyway  .

 

With Webb on the mound our perfect record for the season will be facing a stern test  

[BruisedCrew]

Not surprised to see Bauers at 1B tonight.

Maybe.he can bring out the home run bat (3 in 19 AB) he had in rehab. 

[markedman5]

1 hour ago, edfunderburk said:

Gasser? Followed by CRod?

CRod is almost certainly to be sent down for whoever starts the game……

[markedman5]

3 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Not surprised to see Bauers at 1B tonight.

Maybe.he can bring out the home run bat (3 in 19 AB) he had in rehab. 

Vaughn can use a day off…….he's been playing a ton.

[edfunderburk]

Would love to see Freddy help the bullpen by going 7 innings tonight

Based on recent history - that may be unrealistic 

[BruisedCrew]

Turang is also out.

B lineup tonight. 

[willie key]

20 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Not surprised to see Bauers at 1B tonight.

Maybe.he can bring out the home run bat (3 in 19 AB) he had in rehab. 

Just make contact when we have a runner in third.    That’s all I ask 

[willie key]

Just now, BruisedCrew said:

Turang is also out.

B lineup tonight. 

Freddy needs to get out of the first couple innings unscathed.   Can get behind early today

[folly412]

Gonna give the obligatory "that bottom of the order is brutal" in hopes it leads to a pile of runs tonight.

 

[Samurai Bucky]

13 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

Would love to see Freddy help the bullpen by going 7 innings tonight

Based on recent history - that may be unrealistic 

Mrs. Samurai and I play a game each time Freddy pitches -- how many pitches will he throw in the first inning.  We typically are in the mid 20's.

I'm sure Willy will tell the Giants -- don't fish after two strikes because he may walk you.  If Freddy can fill up the zone AND make competitive pitches with two strikes, you might get your wish.

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, folly412 said:

Edit: Seems to be a fairly credible source saying it's the dark horse 

As I have said twice now in other threads, that is a BS X account that has zero credibility.  Whoever is behind it just throws crap up against the wall to see if anything sticks, and when they are wrong (which is 95% of the time) they just delete the Tweet.

Pro tip - look at the account, see how long it has been around, and then look at how many followers.  That account has been around for something like 8-10 years and only has something like 2,000 followers.  And what the hell would someone with "NBA" in their title know about baseball?