Cubs vs. Brewers Position Battles

[jay87shot]

C= Brewers edge      Carson Kelly has been really good this year but William Contreras has been a top 3 mlb catcher for a while now.

1B=Very slight edge Cubs     Andrew Vaughn has been a godsend but Michael Busch had an amazing year and as much as I want to call this a wash I can't

2B=Wash                 Turang and Hoerner are very similar players, Turang's 2nd half power burst gives him a bit more upside in a playoff series, but too close to call.

SS= Cubs edge         Swanson had a 20/20 season despite the a .244 aveage and .300 obp. Both play good defense but Swanson is getting the big bucks for a reason (4.5 WAR)

3B=Wash            Durbin and Shaw both had 3 WAR rookie years, Durbin's triple slash is a bit better but Shaw has a little higher potential

OF=Cubs Edge     PCA, Tucker, and Happ is about as good of an OF as there is I would say Frelick and Chourio can be at PCA and Happ's level but the gap from Collins to Tucker is pretty big

DH=Brewers Edge             Susuki started off really strong and has faded some, Yeli had the opposite season rough 1st 50-60 games and strong after that.

SP=Edge Brewers         There are some big variables here with the health of Woody, Quintana, and Cade Horton (I think out the series), however Freddy and Priester should have a healthy advantage over Boyd and Imagana and it is a wash after that for me

RP=Edge Brewers          Again the health/rustiness of Megill will play a big factor in this series. The Cubs bullpen of Palencia, Keller, Theilbar, and Pomeranz has been really good for them but I am not really worried about that group taking over the series where as Megill, Uribe, Koenig, and Ashby can with Misi as an extra wild card.

[Brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, jay87shot said:

C= Brewers edge      Carson Kelly has been really good this year but William Contreras has been a top 3 mlb catcher for a while now.

1B=Very slight edge Cubs     Andrew Vaughn has been a godsend but Michael Busch had an amazing year and as much as I want to call this a wash I can't

2B=Wash                 Turang and Hoerner are very similar players, Turang's 2nd half power burst gives him a bit more upside in a playoff series, but too close to call.

SS= Cubs edge         Swanson had a 20/20 season despite the a .244 aveage and .300 obp. Both play good defense but Swanson is getting the big bucks for a reason (4.5 WAR)

3B=Wash            Durbin and Shaw both had 3 WAR rookie years, Durbin's triple slash is a bit better but Shaw has a little higher potential

OF=Cubs Edge     PCA, Tucker, and Happ is about as good of an OF as there is I would say Frelick and Chourio can be at PCA and Happ's level but the gap from Collins to Tucker is pretty big

DH=Brewers Edge             Susuki started off really strong and has faded some, Yeli had the opposite season rough 1st 50-60 games and strong after that.

SP=Edge Brewers         There are some big variables here with the health of Woody, Quintana, and Cade Horton (I think out the series), however Freddy and Priester should have a healthy advantage over Boyd and Imagana and it is a wash after that for me

RP=Edge Brewers          Again the health/rustiness of Megill will play a big factor in this series. The Cubs bullpen of Palencia, Keller, Theilbar, and Pomeranz has been really good for them but I am not really worried about that group taking over the series where as Megill, Uribe, Koenig, and Ashby can with Misi as an extra wild card.

FWIW, Suzuki has moved to the OF and Tucker is at DH since Tucker came off the IL.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Hoerner isn't bad, but Turang is a better player all around. Younger, significantly more power, better OPS. Both are good defensively, but Turang is probably more athletic. I think he has the edge. 

[Jopal78]

Ever look at PCAs stats through 1076 PAs and Chourio’s through 1162? Eery similarities:

PCA:  50 2B, 10 3B, 41 HR, 64 SB, 53 BB, 260 K 

Chourio: 64 2B, 8 3B, 42 HR, 42 SB, 69 BB, 242K.

It’s really the defense that separates PCA as the better player of the 2.

Moreover, PCA is not quite 2 years older (3/25/02) than Chourio (3/11/04).

[Brewcrew82]

26 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Ever look at PCAs stats through 1076 PAs and Chourio’s through 1162? Eery similarities:

PCA:  50 2B, 10 3B, 41 HR, 64 SB, 53 BB, 260 K 

Chourio: 64 2B, 8 3B, 42 HR, 42 SB, 69 BB, 242K.

It’s really the defense that separates PCA as the better player of the 2.

Moreover, PCA is not quite 2 years older (3/25/02) than Chourio (3/11/04).

I mean one has a career wRC+ of 98. The other has a career wRC+ of 115....

So, one is clearly a better hitter and is 2 years younger. 

PCA probably needs to continue to play platinum level defense to stay ahead of Chourio . Which he didn't in the second half to go with his tailspin at the plate.

[Jopal78]

25 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I mean one has a career wRC+ of 98. The other has a career wRC+ of 115....

So, one is clearly a better hitter and is 2 years younger. 

PCA probably needs to continue to play platinum level defense to stay ahead of Chourio . Which he didn't in the second half to go with his tailspin at the plate.

I don’t really care about weighted runs created plus because there is seemingly a complicated metrics formula to support any argument that one wants to make (For example, PCA’s career bWAR (8.2) is more than 25% greater than Chourio’s (6.0) in nearly the same amount of games played). 

I’m looking at the raw counting numbers, they’re nearly identical.

Chourio: 293 hits in 1162 PAs. 110 XBH

PCA: 234 hits in 1076 PAs. 101 XBH.

The real difference is PCA is an elite defender and Chourio is not. 

 

[sveumrules]

19 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

One has a career wRC+ of 98. The other has a career wRC+ of 115....

One is clearly a better hitter and is 2 years younger. 

Yeah, 179 singles for Jackson versus only 133 for Crow-Armstrong is a huge drag on PCA's offense.

Chourio's 110 AVG+ puts him inside the Top 50 hitters since 2023 (min. 1000 PA) versus a 97 AVG+ for PCA that places him around 175th on that same list.

Jackson also has a much more well balanced batted ball profile...

96 LD+ | 106 GB+ | 95 FB+ | 88 Pull+ | 113 Center+ | 101 Oppo+

...compared to PCA who is trying to lift and pull everything...

97 LD+ | 79 GB+  | 129 FB+ | 120 Pull+ | 85 Cent+ | 88 Oppo+

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t really care about weighted runs created plus because there is seemingly a complicated metrics formula to support any argument that one wants to make (For example, PCA’s career bWAR (8.2) is more than 25% greater than Chourio’s (6.0) in nearly the same amount of games played). 

I’m looking at the raw counting numbers they’re nearly identical.

Chourio: 293 hits in 1162 PAs. 110 XBH

PCA: 234 hits in 1076 PAs. 101 XBH.

The real difference is PCA is an elite defender and Chourio is not. 

 

Okay, how about OPS+ where Chourio (115) also has PCA (104) beat?

These are not "complicated metrics formulas". lol These are the two most fundamental, wholesale measures of a hitter's quality in the modern game.

Chourio has proven to be a better hitter and is two years younger than PCA. This is beyond dispute. 

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The real difference is PCA is an elite defender and Chourio is not. 

PCA has more WAR than Chourio so far because he is a better defender yes, Chourio will likely accrue more WAR going forward because he is two years younger, is already a better hitter, and possesses more offensive upside.

One of the main riffs on WAR is that "defense and offense count the same" which is true, they each get one column in the formula.

At the same time, this last year on BRef the range in qualified player fielding values went from +22 down to -23, but batting values ranged from +82 down to -24 so there is a lot more room for Chourio to make headway than there is for PCA, whose fielding is pretty much already maxed out.

[Jopal78]

16 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Okay, how about OPS+ where Chourio (115) also has PCA (104) beat?

These are not "complicated metrics formulas". lol These are the two most fundamental, wholesale measures of a hitter's quality in the modern game.

Chourio has proven to be a better hitter and is two years younger than PCA. This is beyond dispute. 

I’ll give you a pad, pencil and stat sheet for the 2025 Brewers and 20 bucks if you can calculate wRC+ or OPS+ for the players on the Brewers. 

Even giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming you knew the actual formulas as opposed to merely what the result of the equation means, it’s still a sucker bet because not one of us could do the calculations without being provided variables computed by someone else.
 

Further those variables and how they’re calculated differs between the sources that publish them such as Fan Graphs, Statcast, and Baseball Reference. Thus there is inherent subjectivity in all those metrics based on the source one uses for park factor, league averages, run environment adjustments etc. 

Which is why I initially said I don’t care about wRC+ because there’s a metric to support nearly any argument one wants to make.

However, when you look at plate appearances, hits, extra base hits. Chourio and Crow-Armstrong have been quite similar to date in their careers. 

[Jopal78]

16 hours ago, sveumrules said:

PCA has more WAR than Chourio so far because he is a better defender yes, Chourio will likely accrue more WAR going forward because he is two years younger, is already a better hitter, and possesses more offensive upside.

One of the main riffs on WAR is that "defense and offense count the same" which is true, they each get one column in the formula.

At the same time, this last year on BRef the range in qualified player fielding values went from +22 down to -23, but batting values ranged from +82 down to -24 so there is a lot more room for Chourio to make headway than there is for PCA, whose fielding is pretty much already maxed out.

Where do you get the offensive upside from? PCA was the better hitter in the minor leagues, and true he is almost 2 years older than Chourio. But you’re comparing a 21 year old and a 23 year old. 

Maybe you’ll ultimately be right and in 8 years Chourio will be the far better player, but you’re just guessing right now.
 

I’m not hailing PCA as the next super star player, just pointing out the raw numbers indicate that they’re pretty even offensively to this point in their major league careers, and certainly Chourio isn’t regarded as the defender Crow-Armstrong is.

[duewizard]

27 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I’ll give you a pad, pencil and stat sheet for the 2025 Brewers and 20 bucks if you can calculate wRC+ or OPS+ for the players on the Brewers. 

Even giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming you knew the actual formulas as opposed to merely what the result of the equation means, it’s still a sucker bet because not one of us could do the calculations without being provided variables computed by someone else.
 

Further those variables and how they’re calculated differs between the sources that publish them such as Fan Graphs, Statcast, and Baseball Reference. Thus there is inherent subjectivity in all those metrics based on the source one uses for park factor, league averages, run environment adjustments etc. 

Which is why I initially said I don’t care about wRC+ because there’s a metric to support nearly any argument one wants to make.

However, when you look at plate appearances, hits, extra base hits. Chourio and Crow-Armstrong have been quite similar to date in their careers. 

wRC+ is a bit complicated but seriously man OPS+???

Its basically  (player OPS x 100)/league average OPS. 

 

[sveumrules]

51 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Where do you get the offensive upside from? PCA was the better hitter in the minor leagues,

Their minor league numbers are increasingly irrelevant when they both have over 1,000 PA against MLB pitching (& one guy was facing much more age appropriate competition on his way up).

PCA has hit 240/285/437 (98 wRC+) with a 4.9 BB% and 24.2 K% in MLB.

Chourio has hit 272/317/483 (115 wRC+) with a 5.9 BB% and 20.8 K%.

Age, scouting reports, batted ball profiles and MLB performance all lead me to believe Jackson has a higher offensive upside than PCA.

[Playing Catch]

I'm no scout, but my eye-test tells me that if pitchers execute, they are able to neutralize much of PCA's strengths, whereas Chourio's natural hitting ability allows him to beat pitchers with more regularity, even when they make good pitches.

Basically, it looks to me like Chourio can beat a pitcher's pitch, and PCA can't.

They both need to improve their discipline, but I think PCA MUST be disciplined, or he'll suffer greatly. With Chourio, if he improves his discipline, he's going to the moon.

[dlk9s]

It's crazy how bad of a hitter PCA is right now. As soon as you get two strikes on him, just bounce one and he'll swing. 

Excellent center fielder, though. That catch he made in the gap was tough and he made it look so easy. 

I'm sure he'll figure it out at the plate - he was too good in the first half not to still have that in him. Just needs plate discipline (I say "just" like it's simple).

[da swedish german]

man....what a cr*ppy way to "enjoy" the game of baseball

[Playing Catch]

5 minutes ago, da swedish german said:

man....what a cr*ppy way to "enjoy" the game of baseball

Why?

Can one not only enjoy the meal, but the process in making it as well?

[Jopal78]

41 minutes ago, duewizard said:

wRC+ is a bit complicated but seriously man OPS+???

Its basically  (player OPS x 100)/league average OPS. 

 

Again, I know what the result of the variables numerically is supposed to represent.
 

OPS+ includes park factor.  Nobody here knows how to calculate a park factor so it’s relying on some website that publishes them and the methodology that each site uses to do it is not uniform. 

[Brian]

Oops. 

[Team Canada]

11 minutes ago, Brian said:

With 104 mph heat and a howl, Miz makes his mark in playoff debut. 

That's not really relevant to this thread. Put it in the game thread if you want.

[gregmag]

6 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Where do you get the offensive upside from? PCA was the better hitter in the minor leagues, and true he is almost 2 years older than Chourio. But you’re comparing a 21 year old and a 23 year old. 

Maybe you’ll ultimately be right and in 8 years Chourio will be the far better player, but you’re just guessing right now.
 

I’m not hailing PCA as the next super star player, just pointing out the raw numbers indicate that they’re pretty even offensively to this point in their major league careers, and certainly Chourio isn’t regarded as the defender Crow-Armstrong is.

Please don’t say people are “just guessing” when you don’t understand or (much more likely) simply refuse to credit the perfectly valid information they’re referring to. It’s incredibly condescending.

Two years of age is massively important in projecting young players’ value. This isn’t new information or especially hard to demonstrate. I remember Bill James wrote something about it in his 1987 Baseball Abstract. IIRC he both did a study of rookies by age and explained the importance of aging curves — basically, a 21 year old has more time to improve before physical decline starts to set in than a 23 year old does and thus is likely to have a higher peak. Before you ask — no, I haven’t run the studies myself. Do you really refuse to believe anyone who claims expertise or labor beyond your own?  Like, for example, people who develop formulas to improve over the analytic and predictive value of counting stats?

[sveumrules]

52 minutes ago, gregmag said:

Two years of age is massively important in projecting young players’ value.

Yeah, like PCA had a great age 20 season hitting 312/376/520 (146 wRC+) against pitchers a year or two older than him on average between A/A+.

When Chourio was 20 he was hitting 275/327/464 (118 wRC+) against MLB pitchers who were eight years older than him on average.

One of those is considerably more impressive than the other.

In the 79 seasons since MLB integrated there have been just 47 players to reach at least 1,000 PA thru their age 21 season like Jackson has.

Move that age limit up to 23 for PCA and the player pool blows up to 333 guys.

[CheezWizHed]

6 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Again, I know what the result of the variables numerically is supposed to represent.
 

OPS+ includes park factor.  Nobody here knows how to calculate a park factor so it’s relying on some website that publishes them and the methodology that each site uses to do it is not uniform. 

I'm failing to understand why this matters.... If you understand the meaning of the advanced metrics and their strengths & weaknesses, does it really matter if you can calculate it with pen and paper? 

Frankly, if it really mattered, I'm pretty sure many people here could do it with a little coaching.  It is just algebra.  

[CheezWizHed]

6 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm failing to understand why this matters.... If you understand the meaning of the advanced metrics and their strengths & weaknesses, does it really matter if you can calculate it with pen and paper? 

Frankly, if it really mattered, I'm pretty sure many people here could do it with a little coaching.  It is just algebra.  

Took me 3 seconds of research.

OPS+ = 100 * ( OBP/lgOBP + SLG/lgSLG - 1)/PF

 

Be ready for Finals... this will be on the test. 

[duewizard]

6 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Again, I know what the result of the variables numerically is supposed to represent.
 

OPS+ includes park factor.  Nobody here knows how to calculate a park factor so it’s relying on some website that publishes them and the methodology that each site uses to do it is not uniform. 

If you know what they represent then you should be able to recognise malignant use of statistics.

OPS is complicated yes (park factor, separate calculation of OBP+ and SLG+) but the simple formula is good enough to give one a general idea when doing "back of the napkin math" and not engaging in a more complex conversation