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Posted
5 hours ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

Fangraphs is not fans of Adams and Wilkens. 24th and 26th on the list. Basically they consider them bench bats.  A little surprising considering their strong wRC+ numbers in AA.  I guess they never have been fans of those two.  Even Dinges is 21st.  Still, hard to complain about ranking 30 players with a FV of 40 or higher.

With Dinges, the write-up felt like the drop from some of the other rankings had more to do with questions about whether his build is conducive to the grind of being an everyday catcher than being lower on his play or talent.

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Posted
29 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

With Dinges, the write-up felt like the drop from some of the other rankings had more to do with questions about whether his build is conducive to the grind of being an everyday catcher than being lower on his play or talent.

Honestly my reading of him being lower rated is mostly because he's lower on Dinges bat than most. Seems he really doesn't like how long Dinges swing is. He projects 40 hit, 45 power. Baseball America has 45 hit, 60 power for Dinges. 

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Posted

I can see some evaluators being low on Adams and Wilken just based on batting average. As both get to AAA some of those borderline walks turn into k's and the obp won't carry them. I still like Adams as a top 10 but he does still need to mash early in the count when pitchers make mistakes. But Bitonti at 36 at least makes his method consistent, not that I agree.

Dinges at 21 is a little questionable, but he does have lots of question marks.

I still find it strange to see Gasser in people's top 10, he will almost be 27 at the start of the season. I still like the potential to be a #3 but age and health hurt prospect status for me.

 

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Posted
51 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Honestly my reading of him being lower rated is mostly because he's lower on Dinges bat than most. Seems he really doesn't like how long Dinges swing is. He projects 40 hit, 45 power. Baseball America has 45 hit, 60 power for Dinges. 

In general FG does not like guys who are opposite field only or basically fully inside out only guys in the minors.  They can put up great numbers in the minors with it, but you are near borderline overwhelmed by that level pitching and success is unlikely as you move up.  In Dinges case yea sounds like his power is opposite field so makes sense you’d be concerned about higher velocity in the future.

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Posted
6 hours ago, Fungo said:

From Baseball America's Top 40 AFL Prospects write-up.  Screenshots as there's a paywall.

Hi. Appreciate the thought to pass along info, but the paywall is exactly why we can’t allow the screenshots of the exact text. Had to edit the post.

That being said, now is a great time to jump on board:

 

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Posted
18 hours ago, mudbutt said:

I never put much stock in wRC+ when looking at minor leaguers.

I like wRC+ for direct comparison with peers in said league as well as a way to weed-out guys (in my own mind). If one looks at big league players, there just aren't many guys that didn't routinely put up 100+ wRC+ in their minor league stops. Which stands to reason. If one proves to be one of the more effective hitters in his league as a 22-year-old, it's reasonable to expect he'll be decent as a 28-year-old in a different, higher league, even if he's got flaws.

Imperfect, and quick and dirty. But it allows me to keep dreaming on a guy like Adams, whom scouts have had a lot of questions. Just keep proving scouts wrong.

Performance nearly always trumps the eye-test, except for aging prospects that are blocked by better players in MLB (or at least more well-rounded players that have better roster fit/role).

 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I like wRC+ for direct comparison with peers in said league as well as a way to weed-out guys (in my own mind). If one looks at big league players, there just aren't many guys that didn't routinely put up 100+ wRC+ in their minor league stops. Which stands to reason. If one proves to be one of the more effective hitters in his league as a 22-year-old, it's reasonable to expect he'll be decent as a 28-year-old in a different, higher league, even if he's got flaws.

Imperfect, and quick and dirty. But it allows me to keep dreaming on a guy like Adams, whom scouts have had a lot of questions. Just keep proving scouts wrong.

Performance nearly always trumps the eye-test, except for aging prospects that are blocked by better players in MLB (or at least more well-rounded players that have better roster fit/role).

 

Agreed, especially since some leagues end up being extremely hitter friendly or pitcher friendly. WRC+ helps figure out if a .250 average is bad or good. In the Southern League (AA) the batting line was .230/.321/.660 are as the Pacific Coast League (AAA) the average batting line was .271/361/.803. Those extremes make comparing 2 prospects by stats very difficult unless you use wRC+ or other similar metrics in the minors.

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Posted

It's nice to see Lara getting some respect as the teams 4th best prospect. I really expect him, Pratt, Adams, and Wilken to all set AAA on fire after getting out of the tough confines in AA Biloxi. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, jay87shot said:

It's nice to see Lara getting some respect as the teams 4th best prospect. I really expect him, Pratt, Adams, and Wilken to all set AAA on fire after getting out of the tough confines in AA Biloxi. 

Having a bunch of legit prospects waiting in AAA is also a pretty nice testament to how much the depth of the system has been improving over the last few years too.

Think 2022 when Turang, Frelick and Mitchell (okay, and Wiemer too) were all in Nashville was the last time we had that many guys on the cusp.

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Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Posted
45 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Having a bunch of legit prospects waiting in AAA is also a pretty nice testament to how much the depth of the system has been improving over the last few years too.

Think 2022 when Turang, Frelick and Mitchell (okay, and Wiemer too) were all in Nashville was the last time we had that many guys on the cusp.

Which also wasn't all that long ago. Amazing time to be a fan of the Brewers organization - definitively, for me at least, just not really solely focused on the MLB team. That's the eye candy high-paying fruit for fans - we all obviously love the MLB Brewers and hope for that World Series opportunity (or opportunities) - but what they are doing on an organizational level is absurdly impressive and simply deserves our admiration and appreciation. They just lost some pitching coaches and coaches who brought their career journeys elsewhere for new opportunities. Will they promote within? Promote within and hire from elsewhere? I expect Arnold and his greater staff to keep humming along with their incredible systems in place - finding more talent to add in to their current and extant mix of managerial and coaching talent. We are in the Golden era as nerds. It is incredible.

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Posted

Lara needs to do whatever training Turang did to add muscle. If he gets some power, my outlook on him changes completely. Right now he is a reserve outfielder on a good team at best. 

Posted
38 minutes ago, wallus said:

Lara needs to do whatever training Turang did to add muscle. If he gets some power, my outlook on him changes completely. Right now he is a reserve outfielder on a good team at best. 

Is Frelick a reserve outfielder?  I think Lara could develop into his profile of a high-average (maybe not quite .300), 5-10 HR profile and that is perfectly fine for an above average starter on a good team.  Oh, and Lara is a better defender than Frelick who already has a GG to his name.

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Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Posted
1 hour ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

Is Frelick a reserve outfielder?  I think Lara could develop into his profile of a high-average (maybe not quite .300), 5-10 HR profile and that is perfectly fine for an above average starter on a good team.  Oh, and Lara is a better defender than Frelick who already has a GG to his name.

Agreed. Lara's defense is Turang 2B level but for a much more premium position. He is legitimately a highlight reel on a game-by-game basis. He has just as good an arm as Frelick too. He just turned 21 (11/17) swiped 44 bags. Has a very good OPS for a 20-year-old in the OPS maligned Southern League. Has a very disciplined BB:K ratio. Switch Hits. There is no Brewers world I live in where I don't view Him as, in the very least, a meaningful rotational OF member on the MLB club. AND, we know Pat Murphy absolutely loves Him - and for very good reason. He positively impacts the game in many many ways. With an org placing such an emphasis on plus defense, we could quite easily argue he is the best pure defender in the entire system.

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Posted
2 hours ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

Is Frelick a reserve outfielder?  I think Lara could develop into his profile of a high-average (maybe not quite .300), 5-10 HR profile and that is perfectly fine for an above average starter on a good team.  Oh, and Lara is a better defender than Frelick who already has a GG to his name.

Frelick has vastly higher hitting ability. While age is obviously important, Frelick OPS'ed .883 while mostly being in Biloxi and Nashville during the 2022 season. He also hit 11 homers in that season. 

Lara hasn't shown anything like that. He would need to gain a lot of power to ever sniff 10 homers in a season which is exactly what I said. 

I also never said anything bad about his defense which is not the problem. Without the defense, he isn't a MLB player at all.

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Posted
15 minutes ago, wallus said:

Frelick has vastly higher hitting ability. While age is obviously important, Frelick OPS'ed .883 while mostly being in Biloxi and Nashville during the 2022 season. He also hit 11 homers in that season. 

Lara hasn't shown anything like that. He would need to gain a lot of power to ever sniff 10 homers in a season which is exactly what I said. 

I also never said anything bad about his defense which is not the problem. Without the defense, he isn't a MLB player at all.

I mean there’s an age component here. Frelick was 21 when he was drafted and didn’t play a game in AA until he was 22 years old. Lara was 20 the entire season in AA. Lara also has better EV than his power numbers indicate. His lack of power is currently more a matter of his swing than how hard he can hit the ball. Lara put up slightly better EV than Cooper Pratt did in Biloxi last year according to Baseball America but I don’t see nearly as many if any people showing concern about Pratt’s lack of power. 

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Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Posted
20 minutes ago, wallus said:

Frelick has vastly higher hitting ability. While age is obviously important, Frelick OPS'ed .883 while mostly being in Biloxi and Nashville during the 2022 season. He also hit 11 homers in that season. 

Lara hasn't shown anything like that. He would need to gain a lot of power to ever sniff 10 homers in a season which is exactly what I said. 

I also never said anything bad about his defense which is not the problem. Without the defense, he isn't a MLB player at all.

5 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I mean there’s an age component here. Frelick was 21 when he was drafted and didn’t play a game in AA until he was 22 years old. Lara was 20 the entire season in AA. Lara also has better EV than his power numbers indicate. His lack of power is currently more a matter of his swing than how hard he can hit the ball. Lara put up slightly better EV than Cooper Pratt did in Biloxi last year according to Baseball America but I don’t see nearly as many if any people showing concern about Pratt’s lack of power. 

Also, the Southern League was a much different hitting environment in 2022. League average OPS in the Southern League in 2022 was .752, but it was only .660 in 2025. 

Frelick's OPS was .844, but his wRC+ was 121 as a 22-year-old in Biloxi. Lara's OPS was .712 but his wRC+ was 116 as a 20-year-old.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I mean there’s an age component here. 

Age was literally addressed in the second sentence. 

Posted
15 minutes ago, Spencer Michaelis said:

Also, the Southern League was a much different hitting environment in 2022. League average OPS in the Southern League in 2022 was .752, but it was only .660 in 2025. 

Frelick's OPS was .844, but his wRC+ was 121 as a 22-year-old in Biloxi. Lara's OPS was .712 but his wRC+ was 116 as a 20-year-old.

Yeah great point as well

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Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Posted
35 minutes ago, Spencer Michaelis said:

Also, the Southern League was a much different hitting environment in 2022. League average OPS in the Southern League in 2022 was .752, but it was only .660 in 2025. 

Frelick's OPS was .844, but his wRC+ was 121 as a 22-year-old in Biloxi. Lara's OPS was .712 but his wRC+ was 116 as a 20-year-old.

I would love to know what the SLG and general HR numbers were at Knoxville. First year for the Smokies in that new stadium and recall the announcers repeatedly saying how power hitter unfriendly their new Home stadium was proving to be. Made Burke's power surge there all that more impressive.

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Posted

Currently listening to Jim Doyle’s Over-Slot Baseball podcast with Tod Johnson (Brewers VP of Player Acquisition) that was posted yesterday. Will add some notes later.

EDIT

Good stuff.

A lot of table slapping around the league when Miz was drafted. Many teams were trying to hide him in the process.

Very high on Rylan Mills (late round 2025 high school catcher). Said he attended a try out as a nobody from nowhere and every instructor they sent him to ended up saying “he’s awesome at this so he must be bad at _______”. Turns out he was really good at everything. Very hard hitter.

Loves all the kids equally, but singled out Dubanewicz and Holden in their draft classes.

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