2025 Rookies Potential

[jay87shot]

How would you evaluate the potential of Chad Patrick, Issac Collins, and Caleb Durbin????

I think if I asked about Misi and Henderson it would be pretty unanimous that Misi has ace potential and Henderson has potential to be a Freddy Peralta style starter.

However Collins and Patrick weren't really even top 30 prospect and Durbin really wasn't until last year's AFL. I guess my question is can these 3 take another step forward?

If you take Durbin and Collins bad month out (Durbin's first and Collins last) both were well above average hitters with 15 HR potential over 500 abs and 20-30 sb. Add in solid to plus defense and the upside is pretty tantalizing. However both could be due for some regression just based on prospect status and not necessarily strong avg. velo. 

If they improve like you would expect most rookie does anyone think 20/30 seasons with like 5 WAR are possible. With Patrick I was really impressed with him all season, even when unfairly demoted to AAA because of the overcrowded roster and he had options. He did average over a k an inning and showed some extra gas in the playoffs out of the pen. Is he someone who can get to the low 3s era wise or does he become more of an Adriam Houser type which was probably what most of us thought of him as a prospect?

[jay87shot]

In my opinion, I think Durbin and Collins have a little more potential just by maintaining consistency. However I doubt either evers hits 20HR. If they could get 35ish 2B's in a year that would be the best way to take the next step. I do like the idea of getting a high end OF'er and then moving Collins to 2B and Turang to SS. Ortiz would make a good potential utility IF with 2 lefties.

I was a bit lower on Patrick but he really proved something to me in the playoffs. There are some Woody vibes (not the same stuff) but I can see him have some low 3 era seasons with 180-200 innings and 200 ks.

[SF70]

Patrick, with his new slurve has #2 starter upside. He’s also the rare pitcher that gets better with runners on base. Under pressure situations he rises to the occasion like few others. Future game 1-2 or 3 playoff starter.

 

[Playing Catch]

I think all three are already experiencing/demonstrating their peak as baseball players. Which is good! They are good, average, everyday players, and I think they all had enough innings to prove to themselves that their skills translate to the big leagues.

The Brewers have proven adept at squeezing every ounce of talent out of their players, and getting them to perform effectively in their roles.

I think Durbin (26 years old next year in '26), has 20 HR upside that would come with a full-season's worth of starts and a couple of hot stretches during the year. He has just enough power/speed/toughness (no elbow pad?!) that pitchers have to execute good pitches to beat him. I have to think that after his rookie year, and his post-season performance, that he will be oozing with confidence next season, but will maintain his humble approach to the game. His defense was above-average as well. I think he'll put together another +2.5 WAR season with a wRC+ in the 115 range.

I love players like Collins. I love rooting for him to succeed, and I feel confident when he's at the plate. But Collins is 29 next August. There isn't any "potential" left. He is what he is. A really nice bench piece that can fill-in for long stretches of the season without hurting your team.

Patrick, though, is a dog. As SF70 alluded, he showed up in some really difficult circumstances and performed. I just love his arsenal. He commands all three fastballs in all four quadrants. He's all business. He's unflappable. He can do anything the manager asks him to do as a pitcher. He can throw strikes against lefties and righties, pitching to contact, and eating innings. Or he can come in in a 7th inning jam with runners on and get a big strikeout/popup against righties or lefties. He might be the Brewers most trustworthy arm.

[igor67]

I think Durbin potentially has a little bit more he can do, like a peak 4.0 WAR season. Collins can probably learn to keep it up for a full season and hit 3.0 but is almost certainly at his peak, and Patrick could definitely become a #2 rotation guy, but it's hard to predict how likely that is to happen.

[Thurston Fluff]

I see Collins like a Scott Podsednik type. A late bloomer who has a career year early then hangs around for a while because he has the right skillset to play a role but never has another season like his first full year again. He's a great story and I'd love to be wrong but I just don't see him putting up many seasons like the one he just had. 

Durbin is a solid if unspectacular player who's shown he can hold his own as a starter on any team. I don't know how much room a person his size has to grow but he seems to know himself enough to remain productive. His low hard hit rate and lack of power are going to limit his ceiling. 

Patrick has the ability to take a step forward. He may not have the electric stuff of Peralta or dominant stuff Miz has but it's better than average and he knows how to use it. He looks to me like a poor mans Woodruff. He gets overshadowed yet at the end of the year has the same amount of success.

[sveumrules]

5 hours ago, SF70 said:

He’s also the rare pitcher that gets better with runners on base.

Pretty interesting splits for Patrick indeed.

League average this year was 703 OPS bases empty | 740 OPS runners on | 745 OPS RISP

Patrick went 698 OPS bases empty | 701 OPS runners on | 498 OPS RISP

Chad also had pretty divergent strikeout & walk rates with bases empty (21.9 K% | 10.3 BB% | 2.13 K/BB) versus with runners on (29.9 K% | 4.7 BB% | 6.30 K/BB).

Will be interesting to see if he can keep that up in year two.

[trwi7]

I think Patrick could be a real weapon as a multi-inning reliever.  Much like he was used in the playoffs.  Don't think he has the arsenal to be a starter.

I like Collins as a versatile bench player.

I really hope they look to upgrade Durbin.  He was bottom 2% this year in exit velocity, XwOBA on contact and hard hit %.  The entire left side of our infield are obvious spots to upgrade.

[Roderick]

15 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I was a bit lower on Patrick but he really proved something to me in the playoffs. There are some Woody vibes (not the same stuff) but I can see him have some low 3 era seasons with 180-200 innings and 200 ks.

If you go by pitching at least 160 innings, a 3.21 ERA is the 15th best pitcher in all of baseball.

[Turning2]

It seems we all share the same general opinion of Collins - older guy who probably hit his ceiling, had a career year. Solid piece, if probably not a preferred OF starter. Would love to be wrong though. I'd be content if he became a .260ish, 12-15 HR type guy. Overall, I don't think they can afford to be fielding both Collins and Perkins on a regular basis though. One or the other, possibly both, has to be a back up. Of course, some of that hinges upon the great unknown of Mitchell's availability for the entire season. That's a gamble I don't think they should take. That means either Collis or Perk probably get bounced.  

[torts]

Hopefully durbin hangs out with Frelick and finds whatever magic he found to unlock the potential!  We need more durbombs!!!!!

[Lathund]

I don't think Durbin and Collins have very high ceilings. But they did put up close to 3 fWAR seasons in their rookie seasons, and would've gone above that with more regular playing time. Simply more playing time and slight improvements would make them 4 WAR players. I think Durbin has the most potential to improve, while I suspect Collins will never beat his 2025 season. They do have pretty high floors the way I see it, so fairly likely to be regulars or 10 man bench types, but not the tools to be stars. 

Patrick is trickier. But the fact remains that he put up a 3.53 ERA over 120 IP in the majors (With an overall workload of 160 IP including AAA), the peripherals mostly match that; FIP is identical, xERA/xFIP still sub-4. That would improve almost any rotation in the game, as is. And it looked sustainable to me. Pitchers are hard to predict, they can find a new pitch that changes their outlook. Or find more velo. Or more movement. Or improve command. And that's all hard to predict. I don't think he has the stuff to be an ace. But if that sweeper and/or changeup improves a tick and becomes more of a weapon? That can work wonders for his mostly FB-based arsenal, and could elevate him further. 

[long ball]

Given they’re all on the older side already, I don’t see a ton of improvement and we may have seen their best seasons already.
 

Everyone else has basically nailed my opinion on Collins. I don’t have much to add here. 
 

Patrick was really good in 2025 and I think he showed that his floor is probably an excellent reliever. 
 

Durbin is the most interesting guy to me to speculate on. He relies so much on soft contact and HBP that his results could fluctuate quite a bit while still being essentially the same player. I maybe he could increase his walk rate a few points along to what he did in the minors, that could raise his floor if some of the hits/hbp disappear. 

[Jopal78]

33 minutes ago, long ball said:

Given they’re all on the older side already, I don’t see a ton of improvement and we may have seen their best seasons already.
 

Everyone else has basically nailed my opinion on Collins. I don’t have much to add here. 
 

Patrick was really good in 2025 and I think he showed that his floor is probably an excellent reliever. 
 

Durbin is the most interesting guy to me to speculate on. He relies so much on soft contact and HBP that his results could fluctuate quite a bit while still being essentially the same player. I maybe he could increase his walk rate a few points along to what he did in the minors, that could raise his floor if some of the hits/hbp disappear. 

This is the Brewers’ MO the last 6-8 years playing out. They identify and draft/acquire high floor/questionable ceiling players: Collins, Perkins, Frelick. Ortiz, Durbin, Patrick, Myers, etc. 

However, Durbin, Frelick, Collins, didn’t show a lot of power in the minor leagues so without remodeling their bodies in the gym during the offseason, I wouldn’t expect 10+ homer players to become 20 homerun players, especially when those 3 will all be 26 or older next season.
 

Having gotten his feet wet in ‘25, Durbin may be able to get his BABiP up to league average in ‘26 boosting which theoretically could add 30 points to his OPS. I don’t see a lot of room for realistic improvement for ‘26 on Frelick or Collins’ OBP of .351 and .368 respectively. 

[wiguy94]

8 hours ago, Lathund said:

I don't think Durbin and Collins have very high ceilings. But they did put up close to 3 fWAR seasons in their rookie seasons, and would've gone above that with more regular playing time. Simply more playing time and slight improvements would make them 4 WAR players. I think Durbin has the most potential to improve, while I suspect Collins will never beat his 2025 season. They do have pretty high floors the way I see it, so fairly likely to be regulars or 10 man bench types, but not the tools to be stars. 

Patrick is trickier. But the fact remains that he put up a 3.53 ERA over 120 IP in the majors (With an overall workload of 160 IP including AAA), the peripherals mostly match that; FIP is identical, xERA/xFIP still sub-4. That would improve almost any rotation in the game, as is. And it looked sustainable to me. Pitchers are hard to predict, they can find a new pitch that changes their outlook. Or find more velo. Or more movement. Or improve command. And that's all hard to predict. I don't think he has the stuff to be an ace. But if that sweeper and/or changeup improves a tick and becomes more of a weapon? That can work wonders for his mostly FB-based arsenal, and could elevate him further. 

One thing on Durbin that has me slightly hesitant is his absurd HBP rate this year. Looking at his minor league career and he did have a lot of HBP but the rate was much lower than it was this year.

MiLB - 1274 PA, 43 HBP for a 3.4% HBP rate

MLB - 506 PA, 24 HBP for a 4.7% HBP rate

I don't think it's likely that he can maintain a near 5% HBP rate going forward so he's probably going to need to see his BA/SLG or BB-rate to tick up a bit if he's going to maintain his offensive production.

[Jim French Stepstool]

On 11/15/2025 at 1:14 PM, wiguy94 said:

One thing on Durbin that has me slightly hesitant is his absurd HBP rate this year. Looking at his minor league career and he did have a lot of HBP but the rate was much lower than it was this year.

MiLB - 1274 PA, 43 HBP for a 3.4% HBP rate

MLB - 506 PA, 24 HBP for a 4.7% HBP rate

I don't think it's likely that he can maintain a near 5% HBP rate going forward so he's probably going to need to see his BA/SLG or BB-rate to tick up a bit if he's going to maintain his offensive production.

My unscientific theory is that the early book on Durbin vs MLB pitching is that his strength was middle-out & he should be pitched inside, which played into some balls going too far in and his being plunked. But he showed an ability, especially late in the year, to turn on balls w/some power. If it results in some reluctance to go inside that in itself would cut into his HBP rate. Either way I agree getting hit at a 4.7% rate isn't sustainable. I'm guessing he'll be a solid OBP guy regardless. For a rookie the swing decisions were mostly good & his K rate was very impressive.