3B Caleb Durbin, SS Andrew Monasterio, Util Anthony Seigler and Comp B pick traded to Red Sox for LHP Kyle Harrison, LHP Shane Drohan and 2B/SS David Hamilton

[StearnsFTW]

2 hours ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

I cannot even imagine what the trade value would be for Harrison right now. A 24 year lefty with 4 more years of control after this year.  3 top 100 prospects? I'd expect a much better return than Peralta

I would think you're in the ballpark. 

I still can't believe Boston made that trade.

 

[liveforoctober]

It is interesting to go back and read the knee jerk reactions from folks when trades like this happen. The usual glass half full vs glass half empty bickering going on.

[homer]

https://pitcherlist.com/kyle-harrison-is-raising-his-sights/

Quote

If you were to watch a Kyle Harrison outing from his rookie season, as opposed to now, three years later, what would you see that’s different?

 

[trwi7]

7 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

I would think you're in the ballpark. 

I still can't believe Boston made that trade.

 

The weird thing is Boston didn't even seem confident making the trade.  Okay if Durbin sucks, we can go to Monasterio.  If Monasterio and Durbin suck we can try Seigler.

[StearnsFTW]

1 hour ago, trwi7 said:

The weird thing is Boston didn't even seem confident making the trade.  Okay if Durbin sucks, we can go to Monasterio.  If Monasterio and Durbin suck we can try Seigler.

The whole thing is weird..

As was suggested earlier in this thread, my guess is this was Boston's idea.  That they wanted Durbin.

Weird trade all around. 

[Jopal78]

17 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

The whole thing is weird..

As was suggested earlier in this thread, my guess is this was Boston's idea.  That they wanted Durbin.

Weird trade all around. 

Take a peek at their rotation. Top 100 prospects Early, Tolle, then Crochet, Saurez, Gray, and Bello. That’s six, Harrison was probably no higher than 7 on their depth chart (In hindsight you can say they had the ordering wrong)  They wanted infield 3B depth more than they wanted starting pitching depth .

[mudbutt]

14 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Take a peek at their rotation. Top 100 prospects Early, Tolle, then Crochet, Saurez, Gray, and Bello. That’s six, Harrison was probably no higher than 7 on their depth chart (In hindsight you can say they had the ordering wrong)  They wanted infield 3B depth more than they wanted starting pitching depth .

Red Sox fans like to say that, but then why did they trade for two SPs before the Durbin trade in the offseason in Gray and Oviedo?

[tmwiese55]

And sign Saurez for a bunch of money rather than keep this guy for league min. 

[Jopal78]

2 minutes ago, mudbutt said:

Red Sox fans like to say that, but then why did they trade for two SPs before the Durbin trade in the offseason in Gray and Oviedo?

They liked them better than Harrison?
 

It’s not a binary situation where one team is smart and the other is unwise. The Red Sox built up a lot of SP depth then used some of it to fill a hole on their roster- infield depth.
 

 

[Jopal78]

5 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

And sign Saurez for a bunch of money rather than keep this guy for league min. 

Be serious. Suarez and Gray are both veteran all stars.  Harrison is a talented player but prior to this season his career era+ was  91 and his career whip was 1.31. Boston was adding pitchers to help them win immediately
 

 

[Outlander]

Which is exactly what teams like the Brewers take advantage of. Other teams trade and sign has beens that are beyond their best years and Brewers get a more talented guy that is cheaper. It's kind of necessary in the current structure of MLB with players taking so long to get paid what they are worth but leaves opportunity for other more frugal teams.

[tmwiese55]

45 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Be serious. Suarez and Gray are both veteran all stars.  Harrison is a talented player but prior to this season his career era+ was  91 and his career whip was 1.31. Boston was adding pitchers to help them win immediately
 

 

I'm being serious.  The point was "they had so much depth so he was expendable".    Well, if they had so much depth then why did they need to trade for two and sign a starter if they had soooo much depth  is a serious and logical response.    They literally had to fill 3 rotation spots this offseason, thus not really a ton of depth already there.

One of them spots could've been filled by this guy at league min. So after that, yea it comes down to them being very wrong in their assessment and ability to develop him. 

[Jopal78]

27 minutes ago, Outlander said:

Which is exactly what teams like the Brewers take advantage of. Other teams trade and sign has beens that are beyond their best years and Brewers get a more talented guy that is cheaper. It's kind of necessary in the current structure of MLB with players taking so long to get paid what they are worth but leaves opportunity for other more frugal teams.

It’s also a byproduct of being in the smallest market in the league. There is more patience for players like Harrison and Sproat to hone their skills, because even if the Brewers lost 90 games, nobody in leadership is getting fired.

Then you have Boston who won 89 games last year, made the playoffs yet was considered a disappointing season. This year they started off on the wrong foot in April and their manager is already fired and the media is wondering if the GM should next. 
 

Harrison is a talented guy, but I think it’s safe to say the Red Sox believed they were better off with Gray, Suarez Oviedo Bello , Tolle, Early and traded Harrison to get  infield depth. 

Like I wrote before it’s not a binary system where because Harrison has pitched well for Milwaukee Boston automatically made a poor decision, trading him away. 

 

 

 

[tmwiese55]

Yes that's fine, fair, and generally true.  But that's not the same argument as "they already so much depth so he was expendable" which is all folks like me are saying. Three of those guys were not already in their depth to start the offseason.  They were lacking so much depth they needed to acquire 3 players at high cost while not realizing they had a guy sitting right there for league min if they assessed properly or had confidence in their development of him.   

But yea, your points on big market, urgency, lower risk, etc are all true as to why they would take such a route with vets instead of banking on him.   In addition, there is a legit chance if he was in Bos he would not be performing anywhere near the level he has for MKE due to how well they do with coaching and development here.   So in a way that also make Boston correct as there is a very legit chance he'd have kept floundering there.   But that's kind of what we're getting at, its because of poor assessment or coaching they made this mistake moreso than that they already such great depth.   

I work with a Boson sports obsessed guy, and all year its basically been complaining about how awful their pitching outside of Crochet. Which have to take with a grain of salt because in spite of winning like 25 titles the last 30ish years they never stop being negative/pessimists.  But of course then remind him how they gave us Priester/Harrison.

[Jopal78]

10 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Yes that's fine, fair, and generally true.  But that's not the same argument as "they already so much depth so he was expendable" which is all folks like me are saying. Three of those guys were not already in their depth to start the offseason.  They were lacking so much depth they needed to acquire 3 players at high cost while not realizing they had a guy sitting right there for league min if they assessed properly or had confidence in their development of him.   

But yea, your points on big market, urgency, lower risk, etc are all true as to why they would take such a route with vets instead of banking on him.   In addition, there is a legit chance if he was in Bos he would not be performing anywhere near the level he has for MKE due to how well they do with coaching and development here.   So in a way that also make Boston correct as there is a very legit chance he'd have kept floundering there.   But that's kind of what we're getting at, its because of poor assessment or coaching they made this mistake moreso than that they already such great depth.   

I work with a Boson sports obsessed guy, and all year its basically been complaining about how awful their pitching outside of Crochet. Which have to take with a grain of salt because in spite of winning like 25 titles the last 30ish years they never stop being negative/pessimists.  But of course then remind him how they gave us Priester/Harrison.

The depth thing is true as well though. We will never really know why Boston acquired Harrison in the first place . On possibility is  when the Devers situation ruptured and the Red Sox needed to move him immediately, there were limited teams willing to take on that big of a contract, and Harrison and Co.  may have been the best of a group of weak offers.

I do think it’s safe to say the Red Sox were never really enamored with Harrison. That would certainly explain why he spent most of his time in Worcester while the big league club cycled through starters at the back of their rotation.  
 

Also, it is true by the time camp opened Boston had assembled five pitchers who were likely going to start in front of Harrison  (Crochet, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, Suarez) they also had Early and Tolle consensus Top 100 prospects who were major league ready.

Depending how you want to rank them Harrison was somewhere between 6th and 8th on the depth chart.

They were presented with an opportunity to get a starting 3B, a utility infielder and whatever Siegler is for Harrison and Drohan and they took it. 
 

It makes perfect sense unless you view these things as a binary: because Harrison has performed well, Boston must have made a mistake. 

[gregmag]

You keep repeating that line about binaries, but I don’t read people as making an argument that Boston was stupid because the Brewers were smart. My argument, anyway, is that Boston’s paying for Sonny Gray last offseason when they already had Kyle Harrison in hand was short-sighted based on available information at the time. The Brewers don’t have some magical pitching crystal ball. The Red Sox should have had at least some sense of Harrison’s talent. Gray is 36, coming off seasons of 1.6 and 1.4 fWAR at 34 and 35. Why would anyone pay a premium for that rather than rolling with the healthy, prospect-pedigreed 24 year-old?

Your answer seems to be “that’s what big market teams do.” I agree with your premise, but I’d call that kind of big market behavior a pathology rather than a capacity. Spending trade capital and/or real money for talented players in decline is objectively less smart than spending much less money for talented players in ascent whose contracts you already own. If you can’t do at least a pretty good job of identifying and acquiring players in ascent who will likely outplay obviously declining vets, then you shouldn’t be running a MLB franchise.

On a completely different note: Durbin has been one of the worst hitters in baseball, but he’s on pace for 2+ wins because of his excellent fielding at 3b, just more than a year after learning the position. You’ve gotta give him credit, as I’m sure the ever-patient Red Sox fan base will. 

[Jopal78]

47 minutes ago, gregmag said:

You keep repeating that line about binaries, but I don’t read people as making an argument that Boston was stupid because the Brewers were smart. My argument, anyway, is that Boston’s paying for Sonny Gray last offseason when they already had Kyle Harrison in hand was short-sighted based on available information at the time. The Brewers don’t have some magical pitching crystal ball. The Red Sox should have had at least some sense of Harrison’s talent. Gray is 36, coming off seasons of 1.6 and 1.4 fWAR at 34 and 35. Why would anyone pay a premium for that rather than rolling with the healthy, prospect-pedigreed 24 year-old?

Your answer seems to be “that’s what big market teams do.” I agree with your premise, but I’d call that kind of big market behavior a pathology rather than a capacity. Spending trade capital and/or real money for talented players in decline is objectively less smart than spending much less money for talented players in ascent whose contracts you already own. If you can’t do at least a pretty good job of identifying and acquiring players in ascent who will likely outplay obviously declining vets, then you shouldn’t be running a MLB franchise.

On a completely different note: Durbin has been one of the worst hitters in baseball, but he’s on pace for 2+ wins because of his excellent fielding at 3b, just more than a year after learning the position. You’ve gotta give him credit, as I’m sure the ever-patient Red Sox fan base will. 

Ok. Rewind to February 2026, if your goal is to win the AL East you’re picking Kyle Harrison to pitch you there over Sonny Gray? (Despite poo pooing him with metrics, Gray lead the NL in K:BB ratio last season and his WHIP would have been right behind Peralta on the ‘25 Brewers) If you’re being honest, of course you’re not choosing Harrison. And you’re right, big market clubs like Boston aren’t really don’t care of Harrison is the better pitcher going forward, whereas it’s lifeblood in Milwaukee. 

Back to the point, Boston is rolling with Sonny Gray,  as you put it, because they know what they are likely going to get in the here and now with Gray more than they did with Harrison. The Red Sox are also paying Gray just $11M this season and a $10M buy out on a mutual option for ‘28, with the Cardinals paying the remaining $20M.
 

Harrison has been great for the Brewers. But that does t change the fact he was down in the pecking order in Boston for objective quantifiable reasons (they had multiple players who would help them win more now, and had young ascending players who they believed would help them more to win in the future), and that’s why they moved Harrison to solidify a different area on the roster. 
 

 

[gregmag]

I’m perplexed by your underlying assumption that everything Boston thought about Harrison before they traded him must obviously have been right. That’s been the core of everything you’ve said here, and it doesn’t make much sense. For someone who incessantly rips people for opining that the Brewers know what they’re doing, you take a very different attitude when the question is whether the Brewers’ trading partner knew what they were doing.

Yeah, if I want to win the division in 2026, I’m picking the guy whose career is in front of him rather than the guy whose career is behind him. Is that the safe-looking move to casual fans? Probably not. But I don’t think GMs win by trying to placate casual fans. I think GMs win by taking smart risks that casual fans a year later claim that of course they supported at the time (see, e.g., Priester, Quinn). You can cherry-pick the few stats that make Gray look good, but if you actually consider his value — you know, how much he contributed to winning baseball games, which I thought was what we were talking about — there’s no reason to think he’ll ever help a team accomplish anything substantial again.

[tmwiese55]

And it overlooks that they went out to get those guys this offseason to block him.  Its not like they were all already there creating a logjam you had to sort out.  You willingly chose to get these guys this offseason to put in front of him because you didn't think he was good enough. 

Yea, after doing all that sure it then make sense to trade him because you've chosen to block him because you don't think he was good enough or that you were good enough to coach him up.   That is different than a situation being described as 'they just had so much depth so no spot for him' like its being discussed.  

In general, Boston's management has made a ton of terrible moves since the last WS and so far this looks like another one.  There's a reason their fans are starting chants to sell the team. 

[umphrey]

The new trend seems to be that at the beginning of the season you write out your SP depth chart about 10 deep and you assume all of those guys are going to pitch significant innings for you that year. That’s what the Brewers and Dodgers seem to do and probably some other teams too. Guess the Red Sox may be behind on that one. 

[Jopal78]

15 hours ago, gregmag said:

I’m perplexed by your underlying assumption that everything Boston thought about Harrison before they traded him must obviously have been right. That’s been the core of everything you’ve said here, and it doesn’t make much sense. For someone who incessantly rips people for opining that the Brewers know what they’re doing, you take a very different attitude when the question is whether the Brewers’ trading partner knew what they were doing.

Yeah, if I want to win the division in 2026, I’m picking the guy whose career is in front of him rather than the guy whose career is behind him. Is that the safe-looking move to casual fans? Probably not. But I don’t think GMs win by trying to placate casual fans. I think GMs win by taking smart risks that casual fans a year later claim that of course they supported at the time (see, e.g., Priester, Quinn). You can cherry-pick the few stats that make Gray look good, but if you actually consider his value — you know, how much he contributed to winning baseball games, which I thought was what we were talking about — there’s no reason to think he’ll ever help a team accomplish anything substantial again.

Gray won 14 games with St. Louis in 2025 and 13 games in 2024, lead the league in FIP with Minnesota in 2023 and finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting that year, but okay you’re right wins are meaningless and I’m cherry picking stats, he has no value…..

sheesh. 

[sveumrules]

Gray has had a pretty interesting career. RHP under six feet tall are a rarity, but since his first full season in 2014 Sonny has managed to throw the third most IP in MLB anyway.

His K rate has jumped around all over the place though and it's kinda coincided with him moving between the American League and NL Central teams...

2014-18 OAK/NYY (836 IP)
99 K+ | 104 BB+ | 79 HR+
122 GB+ | 78 FB+
93 ERA- | 94 FIP-
[pretty blah K/BB rates with good HR suppression on account of a strong ground ball rate]

2019-21 CIN (366 IP)
122 K+ | 108 BB+ | 76 HR+
114 GB+ | 86 FB+
77 ERA- | 78 FIP-
[big spike in K rate levels Gray up a couple notches, trades some ground balls for fly balls]

2022-23 MIN (303 IP)
106 K+ | 88 BB+ | 50 HR+
110 GB+ | 85 FB+
71 ERA- | 74 FIP-
[reduced strikeouts but big improvements in limiting walks and HR]

He had done it a few different ways, but up to this point Gray had posted a 3.51 ERA and 3.61 FIP with his ERA beating his FIP in six of those ten seasons. His most consistent attributes besides being healthy were a high ground ball rate helping him to limit home runs.

But things changed in more way than one when he got to the Cardinals...

2024-25 STL (347 IP)
128 K+ | 66 BB+ | 105 HR+
102 GB+ | 92 FB+
100 ERA- | 82 FIP-
[best K and BB rates of his career, but a big spike in HRs as his ground ball rate continues to fall off. Where he previously had a history of mild FIP beating, his +0.81 wrong way differential was the fourth highest over those two seasons among 114 pitchers with at least 200 IP]

In his small sample of 28 IP to start this year he has flipped the script yet again with a 3.54 ERA versus a 4.30 FIP, but StatCast thinks he's really lost it with a 5.45 xERA so far after being between 3.24 and 3.89 each season for a cumulative 3.64 xERA from 2019 to 2025. His ground ball rate has spiked back up (118 GB+) but his K rate has absolutely cratered (57 K+).