NL Central Discussion 2026

[Frisbee Slider]

I like having a place to observe the Cubs and discuss just how "electric" the Reds and Pirates are this season. Not sure how the Cardinals won their opening series.

Cubs offense has been less explosive so far this season with OPS below .600 at five positions in the lineup. PCA with four singles through three games and .665 OPS. Busch, Bregman and Happ were the only bigger producers through three games. Carson Kelly was 1-7 but Miguel Amaya hit a HR on Saturday.

35-year old Matthew Boyd hasn't been very sharp since August 2025. I will be interested to see how Edward Cabrera performs tonight. 

 

[adambr2]

I’m excited for at the fast start, while at the same time I think I’ll wait a few weeks to let things settle in before I even attempt to make any observations. Last year we looked like one of the worst teams in baseball after 4 games.

That said, I’m eager to see what we get out of Harrison tonight. Also think we need to give Sprout at least 3-4 starts before we entertain AAA talk. I think he will rebound in his next start.

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs preseason NL Central projections...

CHC: 84.8 W | 35.7% Div
PIT: 83.5 W | 27.6% Div
MIL: 83.0 W | 24.8% Div
CIN: 78.4 W | 8.2% Div
STL: 75.4 W | 3.7% Div

& now after the first three games...

MIL: 84.0 W | 31.6% Div
CHC: 83.9 W | 31.5% Div
PIT: 82.3 W | 22.5% Div
CIN: 79.1 W | 10.4% Div
STL: 75.4 W | 3.9% Div

Of course we know that the Brewers have beaten the FG Depth Chart preseason projected win totals by 87 W for the nine complete full seasons in their database since Stearns/Arnold got here back in 2016 (and by 29 W for the last two seasons managed by Murphy).

Between that, and the Brewers winning at least 86 games for each of the last eight full seasons running, those 83/84 W projections above and the 83.5 W currently up at PECOTA feel a lot closer to a floor than a median to me.

Should be another fun summer.

[adambr2]

Is there anywhere that you can bet money on a teams’ over/under PECOTA projection? Seems like a near lock to take the over on the Brewers every year.

[sveumrules]

17 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Is there anywhere that you can bet money on a teams’ over/under PECOTA projection? Seems like a near lock to take the over on the Brewers every year.

Believe Vegas has typically been a couple two tree wins higher on the Brewers than the projection systems during this competitive run, but I'd imagine the over still would have hit for pretty much every season except 2022 which was the lone year they underperformed their FG preseason projection.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Regarding the Cubs, I think some of their early season slugging issues have to be due to Wrigley playing in the early spring, wind blowing in version most of that series.  Ian Happ disintegrated a ball that would've normally wound up on Waveland but it blew back to routine flyout territory in left field.

 

that being said, I think the more alarming early season issue for that club is they gave up 18 runs to the Nats over 3 games in pitcher-friendly conditions (16 of them in 2 games).  I think the Cubs have a solid back end of the pen, but someone is going to need to get Hoby Milner off that roster before Coun$ell turns him into a Cub fan's worst nightmare coming into the mid innings of far too many winnable games.  

[Dragonbait]

That doesn't sound like a problem 

[tmwiese55]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Regarding the Cubs, I think some of their early season slugging issues have to be due to Wrigley playing in the early spring, wind blowing in version most of that series.  Ian Happ disintegrated a ball that would've normally wound up on Waveland but it blew back to routine flyout territory in left field.

 

that being said, I think the more alarming early season issue for that club is they gave up 18 runs to the Nats over 3 games in pitcher-friendly conditions (16 of them in 2 games).  I think the Cubs have a solid back end of the pen, but someone is going to need to get Hoby Milner off that roster before Coun$ell turns him into a Cub fan's worst nightmare coming into the mid innings of far too many winnable games.  

Generally agree and all, cold weather just seems to make hitting harder.

However, the last two games of that series the wind was blowing out significantly.  I think I saw earlier today that tonight's game is as well.   I had fantasy players for both teams, so I checked the wind every day.    I saw one of Happ's HR over the weekend and it probably becomes borderline if not for the wind.   That said, Happ looks to be in a much better spot with his swing than he has been the last two years. I think he's a FA after this year so probably wants one more good payday.  That would hurt if he plays a level better than he's been lately.      Busch looks like he isn't going anywhere either, man I wish we'd have gotten him from LA instead of them

[Thurston Fluff]

10 hours ago, sveumrules said:

FanGraphs preseason NL Central projections...

CHC: 84.8 W | 35.7% Div
PIT: 83.5 W | 27.6% Div
MIL: 83.0 W | 24.8% Div
CIN: 78.4 W | 8.2% Div
STL: 75.4 W | 3.7% Div

& now after the first three games...

MIL: 84.0 W | 31.6% Div
CHC: 83.9 W | 31.5% Div
PIT: 82.3 W | 22.5% Div
CIN: 79.1 W | 10.4% Div
STL: 75.4 W | 3.9% Div

Of course we know that the Brewers have beaten the FG Depth Chart preseason projected win totals by 87 W for the nine complete full seasons in their database since Stearns/Arnold got here back in 2016 (and by 29 W for the last two seasons managed by Murphy).

Between that, and the Brewers winning at least 86 games for each of the last eight full seasons running, those 83/84 W projections above and the 83.5 W currently up at PECOTA feel a lot closer to a floor than a median to me.

Should be another fun summer.

Nice to see we picked up a whole game!!!

I wonder how long it would take the Brewers continuously out performing the projections before the projectors decide maybe it's time to update their formulas for their projections instead of insisting reality has it wrong.

[CheeseheadInQC]

56 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Nice to see we picked up a whole game!!!

I wonder how long it would take the Brewers continuously out performing the projections before the projectors decide maybe it's time to update their formulas for their projections instead of insisting reality has it wrong.

I think if I remember correctly, they have speculated that some of the things the Brewers are good at in concert create some sort of force multiplier. 

[StearnsFTW]

Cade Horton having UCL surgery in the least surprising injury ever:

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/headlines/cade-horton-injury-set-for-season-ending-ucl-surgery-996332

 

 

[Frisbee Slider]

Imanaga, Cabrera, Taillon, Rea and Assad now?

[StearnsFTW]

I'm sure I've posted on this site about how badly the Cubs abused Horton last year.  Absolute malpractice.

 

I actually feel bad for the kid.

 

[Frisbee Slider]

I'm excited to see how Pittsburgh does at Wrigley this weekend. No Skenes this series, though.

[wiguy94]

Cubs fans are incredible. Counsell is getting a ton of backlash online for pulling Imanaga who had a no hitter after 6 innings. They already have 3 SP on the IL with 1 done for the year and fans are pissed that Counsell pulls the guy who had 100 pitches through 6 innings and no chance of finishing the game. 

[Frisbee Slider]

Cubs with 10 base runners and zero runs

[TURBO]

[Frisbee Slider]

Jake Bauers is having a slow start to the season. His OPS is still higher than Alex Bregman, Pete Crow Armstrong, Michael Busch, Dansby Swanson.

[Frisbee Slider]

Difficult loss for last-place Chicago Cubs. Throwing error scores go-ahead run. Three opportunities to cash in a runner on third, line out, pop out, pop out. Raise the Jolly Roger / L flag.

Who is the best team in the NL Central, outside of Milwaukee?

https://www.mlb.com/video/brandon-lowe-s-go-ahead-single

[valpocrewsader]

Glass houses?

[Frisbee Slider]

7 hours ago, valpocrewsader said:

Glass houses?

Yes, that is fair. I also should not have reveled in Chicago's opening series difficulty with Washington.

[adambr2]

This is why I wanted to let things settle in for a few weeks before planning any parades.

[Frisbee Slider]

All NL Central teams over .500. Best division in baseball?

[sveumrules]

Looks like as of this morning five of the top twelve records in all of MLB reside in the NL Central, take that coastal elites. Seems like as good a time as any to check back in on what the computers think it all might mean...

FanGraphs

PIT: 85.1 W | 32.7% Div
CHC: 84.6 W | 29.0% Div
MIL: 84.7 W | 24.6% Div
CIN: 79.8 W | 8.8% Div
STL: 77.6 W | 4.9% Div

PECOTA

CHC: 88.5 W | 54.6% Div
MIL: 83.7 W | 22.0% Div
PIT: 81.7 W | 11.9% Div
CIN: 80.9 W | 10.6% Div
STL: 71.3 W | 0.9% Div

Reds and Brewers are pretty close in both systems with a little larger disagreement on the Pirates, Cubs and Cardinals here in the still early going. The above FanGraphs projections are based off a 50/50 split of the Steamer and ZiPS projections for each player, but as we know the Brewers are pretty good at beating those. If we instead click the FanGraphs projections over to Season To Date results instead that shakes things up a bit...

FanGraphs (Season To Date)

MIL: 94.0 W | 37.6% Div
CHC: 92.7 W | 32.7% Div
PIT: 86.1 W | 17.1% Div
CIN: 79.8 W | 8.6% Div
STL: 74.0 W | 4.0% Div