NL Central Discussion 2026

[RWeeksFan23]

14 hours ago, AdvantageSchneider said:

Elly De La Cruz to the IL with a bad hammy.  Going to miss at least 3 weeks.  They are a game above .500 right now.  I assume this is the end of the competitive portion of their season.

to be fair they will get hunter greene back at some point though which will be a huge boost to their rotation.

[umphrey]

Cubs at 48% chance to make the playoffs on fangraphs. Thought it was noteworthy they fell under 50% after their strong start to the season. 

[igor67]

I expect the Pirates stay in 2nd place to be short lived. They have Atlanta and LA back to back starting this weekend

[Fear The Chorizo]

Rest of the NL Central once again has to be having this sort of feel - thanks for putting it so eloquently, Randy!

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, igor67 said:

I expect the Pirates stay in 2nd place to be short lived. They have Atlanta and LA back to back starting this weekend

Very possible but I think the Pirates might be our best competition for the division. Their rotation is legit and they actually have a pretty good lineup as well. I feel like they are a playoff team this year.

[RWeeksFan23]

Grand slam Matt Chapman! Cubs trail 6-0. 

Hopefully these Giants bats stay hot!

[Brian]

On 6/3/2026 at 6:41 AM, umphrey said:

Cubs at 48% chance to make the playoffs on fangraphs. Thought it was noteworthy they fell under 50% after their strong start to the season. 

Current Vegas Odds. 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/playoff-prop/

[Brian]

Also, Cubs getting absolutely demolished by the Giants today, 16 to 0 in the 6th. 

Holy Cow! 

[torts]

PCA give up any homers?

[LouisEly]

Odds of Counsell filling out an unemployment claim tomorrow?

[sveumrules]

How bad has the Pirates defense been so far this year?

Team FIP
PIT (3.76 | 8th)
STL (4.20 | 17th)
CHI (4.48 | 24th)

Team ERA
PIT (4.00 | 13th)
STL (4.14 | 17th)
CHI (4.17 | 18th)

Runs Allowed per Game
CHI (4.41 | 15th)
STL (4.48 | 16th)
PIT (4.57 | 20th)

[da swedish german]

5 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Odds of Counsell filling out an unemployment claim tomorrow?

how does that work for rich people? 

I imagine like ol' dirty bas&ard rolling up in a limo for his food stamps lol

[Dragonbait]

Reds, under .500.

[Frisbee Slider]

Jamison Taillon has allowed 20 HR this season and is on pace to equal the all time single season record for HR allowed (50 by Bert Blyleven in 1986).

For context, Roger Maris hit his 17th HR on June 7, 1961. We could be witnessing something truly historic this summer.

[HarryDoyle]

10 hours ago, Dragonbait said:

Reds, under .500.

Yep, the NL Central officially has at least one team with a losing record, and it looks like the bad times for the Reds are just beginning.

[yfinn6]

Jameson Taillon just came out of the game after a few non-competitive pitches in the 2nd. Looked like as soon as he threw the pitch he was signaling to the dugout. 

[Brian]

13 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Jamison Taillon has allowed 20 HR this season and is on pace to equal the all time single season record for HR allowed (50 by Bert Blyleven in 1986).

For context, Roger Maris hit his 17th HR on June 7, 1961. We could be witnessing something truly historic this summer.

From Cubs chat room on Taillon injury:  I’d be upset over this but this Taillon stinks. Leads the league in homers given up.  He eats innings but other than that dude is so washed.  Wish we could use him for spare parts. 

[Brian]

Cubs lose 2-1 in th3 10th.  Cubs tied with Pirates now.  Stl in 2nd place 5 games behind Brewers. 

[markedman5]

Meanwhile in Chicago 

 

[formerlybis]

19 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Meanwhile in Chicago 

 

Well, the first instinct to feel a sense of schadenfreude, but it also goes to show you that things can go sideways relatively quickly. 

[HarryDoyle]

3 hours ago, markedman5 said:

Meanwhile in Chicago 

 

[Brian]

Jed Hoyer punishes Craig Counsell.  

[BruisedCrew]

Over the last 10 days the Cardinals have moved solidly into second place.

Is everyone still as sure as they were that the Cardinals are a bad team that will collapse as the season moves on. 

[Frisbee Slider]

22 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Over the last 10 days the Cardinals have moved solidly into second place.

Is everyone still as sure as they were that the Cardinals are a bad team that will collapse as the season moves on. 

Cardinals are just +5 on run differential. That seems a lot like a .500 baseball team to me.

If Jordan Walker comes back to Earth, I’m not sure they have the rotation or bullpen to make the playoffs.

[sveumrules]

27 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Over the last 10 days the Cardinals have moved solidly into second place.

Is everyone still as sure as they were that the Cardinals are a bad team that will collapse as the season moves on. 

Outside of the current Division Leaders it looks like the Phillies (75.1% on FanGraphs | 86.0% on PECOTA) have the best playoff odds among the other NL Contenders.

PECOTA still believes in the Cubs (71.5%) more than FanGraphs does (40.0%).

Cardinals are kind of the inverse with their 47.3% Playoff Odds the 5th highest among NL teams on FanGraphs, but their 24.3% on PECOTA is 9th in the NL.

Pirates have the best run differential of the bunch at +21 while the Nationals (+8) are a few ahead of STL before getting into the less than zero contenders like CHI (-1), ARI (-14), SDP (-16), or even PHI (-17) still reeling from their slow start.

For me personally I think the Braves, Dodgers, Brewers and Phillies look like they will take four spots one way or another. That leaves two spots up for grabs amongst six teams that are currently over .500 so I'd probably put them all between 30% and 35% since I don't see too much difference between them. STL prolly closer to 35% just because they've played themselves into a three game cushion over the other five teams to this point.