Brewers (Sproat) vs Pirates (Ashcraft): 7/10/26, 5:40pm

[wallus]

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

“I’d haveto spend some time getting the precise numbers, but that block seems toinclude the two 13 run games against at the end of April and the high scoringgames in early June against the Giants, Rockies and A’s. Those games whitewash the whole month of May in which the Brewers offense was middle of the pack (something like 4.3 RPG)  “

My guess is if you took the highest 3 scoring games out for any team during a similar stretch you would get a similar adjustment for those teams.

Every team has peaks and valleys ……..overall the brewers offense has been very good at generating runs even without many homers…..or high slugging pct.

I am 100% convinced it's a schtick. He does multiple posts like this every year trying to explain that the offense is not as good as the numbers say. 

[torts]

2 minutes ago, willie key said:

I don’t think it’s unreasonable 

No, true, depending where you're at, happy hour could have started hours ago 

[wiguy94]

Watching Jake Woodford pitch for the Cubs is a lot more fun than watching him pitch for the Brewers haha

[markedman5]

Old friend Jake Woodford was summoned to pitch the 7th in a game the Cubs trailed 1-0……..it’s now 4-0 Reds.

[LouisEly]

47 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

If I had to guess, I'd guess they don't think he's the best option but rather the most expendable. When Hamilton is ready to come off the IL post ASB Jones will be DFA'd and they don't care about losing him while they might not want to lose Leonard or burn an option year for Williams.

And if they plan on trading for multiple positions (SP, RP, 3B/SS) in a couple of weeks they may need to DFA more guys, and thus not want to put real prospects on the 40.

[jay87shot]

48 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

We have the best FO in baseball. I can’t comprehend how anyone in that FO believes Jones is the best option for the MLB infield bench role. He should have never been re-signed after he was DFAd. I feel the same way about Kuhnel. I hope Jones & Kuhnel (once he is off the IL) are off the team shortly never to return. They make Blake Perkins (who I really appreciate) look like a HOF player. 

My guess is that they know Hamilton will be back after the minimum 10 days. If Jett isn't ready (iffy) Jones makes more sense then Leonard if a different team claims them when sent back to AAA and they lose the 40 man spot. Leonard in AAA might be more valuable in case someone gets hurt. I get that's pretty iffy logic.

[Bulldogboy]

Woodford for Wilson is going to be good deal for Brewers. 

[sobomp3]

I don’t understand. Looking at the radar loop it looks like it cleared up right around game time and never rained again. 

[Dragonbait]

St Louis is now in a rain delay. 4th inning. 

[adambr2]

28 minutes ago, sobomp3 said:

I don’t understand. Looking at the radar loop it looks like it cleared up right around game time and never rained again. 

I also thought they had a window tonight. Not sure. 

[edfunderburk]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

If I had to guess, I'd guess they don't think he's the best option but rather the most expendable. When Hamilton is ready to come off the IL post ASB Jones will be DFA'd and they don't care about losing him while they might not want to lose Leonard or burn an option year for Williams.

I understand & agree. It’s quite sad for Leonard as it prevents him from making his MLB debut. He would also be far more helpful if called upon. 

[Malik Willis]

59 minutes ago, sobomp3 said:

I don’t understand. Looking at the radar loop it looks like it cleared up right around game time and never rained again. 

It would have been a fairly easy call for anyone with meteorological knowledge that the rain would end relatively shortly after scheduled first pitch. That said, sometimes other things besides weather factor into the decision.

[HarryDoyle]

5 hours ago, Malik Willis said:

It would have been a fairly easy call for anyone with meteorological knowledge that the rain would end relatively shortly after scheduled first pitch. That said, sometimes other things besides weather factor into the decision.

As Joe Maddon has shown us.

[Outlander]

6 hours ago, Malik Willis said:

It would have been a fairly easy call for anyone with meteorological knowledge that the rain would end relatively shortly after scheduled first pitch. That said, sometimes other things besides weather factor into the decision.

Like a very bad fireworks show that nobody could see because it was sunny.

[BruisedCrew]

10 hours ago, wallus said:

I am 100% convinced it's a schtick. He does multiple posts like this every year trying to explain that the offense is not as good as the numbers say. 

My opinion and observations are based on numbers.

Is there a set of rules that determines what THE NUMBERS are that are approved for use in forming opinions.

The numbers I am using have led me to the conclusion that since the Brewers returned from Vegas their offense has been below league average and that the Brewers have been winning because of exceptional run prevention.

I apologize if that opinion conflicts with THE NUMBERS, whatever they are 

[wallus]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

My opinion and observations are based on numbers.

Is there a set of rules that determines what THE NUMBERS are that are approved for use in forming opinions.

The numbers I am using have led me to the conclusion that since the Brewers returned from Vegas their offense has been below league average and that the Brewers have been winning because of exceptional run prevention.

I apologize if that opinion conflicts with THE NUMBERS, whatever they are 

Every year it's explained to you that you can't just take out big offensive games for one team and compare them to numbers from other teams where you don't do that.

No serious person looks at numbers that way.

[BruisedCrew]

9 minutes ago, wallus said:

Every year it's explained to you that you can't just take out big offensive games for one team and compare them to numbers from other teams where you don't do that.

No serious person looks at numbers that way.

Has THE NUMBERS COMMISSION ruled that it is improper to look at the last month of games for all teams, including all of their runs, to make an observation that for that period the Brewers offense has been below league average in runs per game?

Seems to me that people, including Sveum, do things like that all the time. I’ve stated exactly what I’ve been doing very clearly. If you don’t agree with me, that’s fine.

[willie key]

24 minutes ago, wallus said:

Every year it's explained to you that you can't just take out big offensive games for one team and compare them to numbers from other teams where you don't do that.

No serious person looks at numbers that way.

To me this always made for interesting debate

team a -   All season they score 16 runs in game one and then zero on the next two and it repeats all three games for the rest of the season

team b - scores 5 runs every game for the season. No more.  No less

the numbers say that team a is a better offense.    But I would take team b’s offense over team a

also should Chourio have hit a homer off the position player instead of batting left handed to make numbers look better or do some numbers don’t matter ultimately in the grand scheme of things.  

[wallus]

2 hours ago, willie key said:

To me this always made for interesting debate

team a -   All season they score 16 runs in game one and then zero on the next two and it repeats all three games for the rest of the season

team b - scores 5 runs every game for the season. No more.  No less

the numbers say that team a is a better offense.    But I would take team b’s offense over team a

also should Chourio have hit a homer off the position player instead of batting left handed to make numbers look better or do some numbers don’t matter ultimately in the grand scheme of things.  

There are no teams like this. Generally all teams have big offensive games throughout the season

[wallus]

2 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

Has THE NUMBERS COMMISSION ruled that it is improper to look at the last month of games for all teams, including all of their runs, to make an observation that for that period the Brewers offense has been below league average in runs per game?

Seems to me that people, including Sveum, do things like that all the time. I’ve stated exactly what I’ve been doing very clearly. If you don’t agree with me, that’s fine.

Sveum doesn't take out all big offensive production from the Brewers and compare it to other teams where he doesn't do that. He understands that it would be misleading to do that.

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, willie key said:

To me this always made for interesting debate

team a -   All season they score 16 runs in game one and then zero on the next two and it repeats all three games for the rest of the season

team b - scores 5 runs every game for the season. No more.  No less

the numbers say that team a is a better offense.    But I would take team b’s offense over team a

Of course everybody would take team b, team a could never win more than 54 games. Instead of impossible hypotheticals we could look at how actual runs have been distributed so far for the Top Ten teams in MLB by runs per game (excluding the Coors inflated Rockies) then see how the Brewers compared to that cohort...

Nationals (108 wrC+ | 4th)
3 R or less (35) 4 or 5 (18) 6 plus (42)
5.28 R/G (1st) | 5.12 BaseRuns (3rd)
with RISP (+72.25 RE24 | 2nd)
996 PA (4th) | 105 wRC+ (13th) | 367 R (3rd)

Dodgers (116 wRC+ | 1st)
3 R or less (37) 4 or 5 (23) 6 plus (35)
5.27 R/G (1st) | 5.21 BaseRuns (2nd)
with RISP (+92.87 RE24 | 1st)
972 PA (6th) | 114 wRC+ (4th) | 372 R (2nd)

Pirates (110 wRC+ | 2nd)
3 R or less (35) 4 or 5 (16) 6 plus (43)
5.23 R/G (3rd) | 5.26 BaseRuns (1st)
with RISP (+49.77 RE24 | 5th)
1,062 PA (3rd) | 104 wRC+ (14th) | 362 R (4th)

Brewers (104 wRC+ | 8th)
3 R or less (37) 4 or 5 (19) 6 plus (37)
5.12 R/G (4th) | 4.85 BaseRuns (6th)
with RISP (+50.26 RE24 | 4th)
1,072 PA (1st) | 115 wRC+ (3rd) | 385 R (1st)

Cubs (108 wRC+ | 3rd)
3 R or less (38) 4 or 5 (16) 6 plus (40)
5.01 R/G (5th) | 5.06 BaseRuns (4th)
with RISP (+56.00 RE24 | 3rd)
1,065 PA (2nd) | 103 wRC+ (16th) | 352 R (6th)

Braves (98 wRC+ | 19th)
3 R or less (33) 4 or 5 (26) 6 plus (34)
4.89 R/G (6th) | 4.62 BaseRuns (11th)
with RISP (+32.80 RE24 | 8th)
851 PA (22nd) | 109 wRC+ (9th) | 321 R (9th)

Twins (105 wRC+ | 7th)
3 R or less (34) 4 or 5 (29) 6 plus (32)
4.86 R/G (7th) | 4.69 BaseRuns (9th)
with RISP (+36.78 RE24 | 7th)
949 PA (7th) | 125 wRC+ (1st) | 344 R (7th)

Yankees (107 wRC+ | 5th)
3 R or less (36) 4 or 5 (29) 6 plus (29)
4.82 R/G (8th) | 4.72 BaseRuns (8th)
with RISP (+39.52 RE24 | 6th)
845 PA (24th) | 109 wRC+ (8th) | 296 R (19th)

White Sox (104 wRC+ | 9th)
3 R or less (40) 4 or 5 (17) 6 plus (36)
4.77 R/G (10th) | 4.63 BaseRuns (10th)
with RISP (+23.29 RE24 | 9th)
905 PA (13th) | 102 wRC+ (17th) | 305 R (15th)

Marlins (104 wRC+ | 10th)
3 R or less (39) 4 or 5 (26) 6 plus (30)
4.59 R/G (11th) | 4.82 BaseRuns (7th)
with RISP (+5.12 RE24 | 12th)
938 PA (9th) | 101 wRC+ (19th) | 324 R (8th)

Range of high to low for 3 or less run games is White Sox (40) down to Braves (33), Brewers (37) in the middle.

Range of high to low for 4 or 5 run games is Yankees/Twins (29) down to Cubs/Pirates (16), Brewers (19) towards the bottom.

Range of high to low for 6 plus run games is Pirates (43) to Yankees (29), Brewers (37) closer to the top.

Regardless of the largely random distribution of runs on a game to game basis, I think the totality of what has happened to this point would put the Dodgers and Nationals in a tier of their own, then I would have the Cubs and Brewers in the next tier down.

Pirates have had a better offense so far, but their horrid defense drops them down into the third tier for me.

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, wallus said:

Sveum doesn't take out all big offensive production from the Brewers and compare it to other teams where he doesn't do that. He understands that it would be misleading to do that.

And I didn’t do that either. The fact that you keep repeating this shows that you haven’t actually read what I’ve been saying. 

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Impressive outing for Yoho!  Way to pick up the tough start by Sproat