No thanks, I’d rather lose

[Sixtolezcano]

If you get a chance, please read Baseball Prospectus article by Roger Cormier, “No thanks, I’d rather lose.” A definite eyeopener.

[markedman5]

Sorry it’s paywalled…….not one of the sites I pay for. 🤷‍♂️

[owbc]

The basic premise is trying to figure out why players are not challenging in obvious challenge situations, such as Chourio in the 9th the other day. 

The most logical explanation is that he just forgot to challenge:

“I was looking for a breaking ball. I got a two-seamer, so I was a little bit surprised.”

The second most logical explanation is that Chourio thought it was a strike, and not a particularly close one at that. 

Underlying all this is that batters aren't very good at knowing what is a ball vs. a strike, especially when they are looking for one pitch and get something else. 

[titanrick]

That quote is from Ketel Marte, not Chourio, if that matters.

This issue of our hitters' use of ABS is frustrating for me.  The Brewers pride themselves on getting an edge in every imaginable way since we will never be able to outspend teams like the Dodgers and Yankees.  So why can't we be better at this aspect of it, given we're 100 games into the new system now?

To be clear, the split-second judgment of "Was it an incorrect call?" is very difficult.  If players don't trust their own judgment, most of the time they should just accept the call and not challenge.  I'm reminded of a Bunty at-bat early in the season where he looks at a called third strike that wasn't particularly close to being a ball, then compounds his problem by wasting a challenge on it.  It was early in the game, too.

But there is no excuse at all for Chourio's miss on the last strike of regulation.  Even if he's wrong, we still have one left in extra innings.  It is no longer a question of "Are you certain?" and more a question of "What have you got to lose by being wrong?"  In this case, he wasn't losing much and would have gotten the challenge correct.  But these are things that should be taught to our hitters - that the timing of the challenge matters greatly! And the rules are strict that you can't coach from the dugout in those situations, you can absolutely remind someone in the on-deck circle that we have two challenges left in the bottom of the 9th and if it's close at all, don't be afraid to try it!  And yet, our boys seem lost on when to challenge and when not to. Chourio clearly discussed it with someone after that game, because he incorrectly challenged in his first at-bat the next game!

Coaches... Murph... tighten up the ship here!

[hoosier]

I think it's more complicated than he forgot or his zone judgment isn't good. By the looks of his chase tendencies, his knowledge of the zone probably isn't as good as many good hitters. But for the batter everything happens so fast, you're tunnelling in on the ball as it leaves the pitcher's hand trying to pick up spin and all that stuff. When you misidentify a pitch or get fooled, as Chourio clearly did, it throws everything off--including your ability to judge where the pitch landed. The pitch bamboozled him, ended up doing something completely different from what he was expecting it to do, so why shouldn't he assume the ump got the call right? The whole thing was awful to watch, made Chourio look like an idiot, but I think that's more a reflection of a failure in pitch recognition and its downstream ripple effects. 

[Playing Catch]

Batters have challenged strikes that were two-balls inside the zone. I guess that means they could just as easily see what the ump saw, and miss a ball that 6 inches out of the zone.

The situational awareness, I think, will improve across baseball, and will improve for most players the more and more times they get burned by their decisions.

 

[areacodes]

2 hours ago, titanrick said:

This issue of our hitters' use of ABS is frustrating for me.  The Brewers pride themselves on getting an edge in every imaginable way since we will never be able to outspend teams like the Dodgers and Yankees.  So why can't we be better at this aspect of it, given we're 100 games into the new system now?

I think that is a big reason is we’re still only 100 games into the new system.  Yes there was some variation of ABS in the minors recently, but not all players were exposed so there is a learning curve.

The Brewers also tried to implement a system earlier this year to tell the players when they could challenge a pitch in the at bat (making more sense analytically for the situation) and MLB said no.