Thought Question of the Day - Pete Crow Armstrong Versus Jackson Chourio

[MrTPlush]

50 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

We have one in Yelich. Made his MLB debut at a young age. Athletic. Solid but not superstar numbers in Florida. Slow build before a minor break out at 24 years old, followed by a superhuman breakout at 26. 

Ahh, that’s a pretty solid example. Yelich was much like Chourio, solid player but just wasn’t AS level.

I still have high hopes for Chourio. His tools and the ability to hit .270+  in today’s environment has got to eventually click. If he was hitting like Jackson Holliday I’d be a lot more concerned.

[Jopal78]

33 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Not a horrible example. But I guess I’d think he broke out at the start of the last year, which was half the time it’s taking Chourio. PCA just didn’t become a literal MVP candidate till he started getting on base consistently.

In retrospect, Chourio had a really nice stretch of success that first year after a cold start. He just has not replicated any form of successful consistency since. Hasn’t had two .750+ OPS months in a row since.

 

 

His SLG% each year in the majors has been almost identical

[Brian]

23 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

His SLG% each year in the majors has been almost identical

I agree but PCA is a much better defender which gives him the edge IMO. 

[owbc]

PCA overall because he's a generational defender at a key position but I would bet on Chourio's raw offensive numbers beating PCA over the remaining length of the contract. 

[Valentín Viña]

4 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

You could probably put Barry Bonds in that same discussion. Came up young, did ok/fine. Massive breakout at 25 years old.   Then for some reason had another breakout/leap at 36 years old

 

Bonds did better than ok. He was well above average by age 22 and never really let up. 

To answer OP's question, I think PCA has the clearer higher probability path to sustained stardom. Elite CF defense alone gives him a higher floor. Average arm strength caps Chourio's ceiling relative to a true elite defender. Historically, elite CF defense and offensive output by age 24 tend to sustain high value for years.

Chourio has youth on his side but he's gonna have to show some real improvement next season to keep pace with PCA. 

[tmwiese55]

7 minutes ago, Valentín Viña said:

 

Bonds did better than ok. He was well above average by age 22 and never really let up. 

To answer OP's question, I think PCA has the clearer higher probability path to sustained stardom. Elite CF defense alone gives him a higher floor. Average arm strength caps Chourio's ceiling relative to a true elite defender. Historically, elite CF defense and offensive output by age 24 tend to sustain high value for years.

Chourio has youth on his side but he's gonna have to show some real improvement next season to keep pace with PCA. 

the year before at age 24 he had a 777 ops with 19 hrs in a full season. had a couple better years before that in the 840 ops ballpark with 25hr.     IDK, seems kind of exactly what we're talking about here.  That's perfectly good/fine for someone up young playing in their low 20s (remember that was a much easier hitting environment than now).  The boom came at age 25

[Valentín Viña]

47 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

the year before at age 24 he had a 777 ops with 19 hrs in a full season. had a couple better years before that in the 840 ops ballpark with 25hr.     IDK, seems kind of exactly what we're talking about here.  That's perfectly good/fine for someone up young playing in their low 20s (remember that was a much easier hitting environment than now).  The boom came at age 25

 

He had an 8.0 WAR that (age 24) season so he was already a superstar by that point. Chourio has produced quality numbers but not quite at Barry's level. 

[tmwiese55]

14 minutes ago, Valentín Viña said:

 

He had an 8.0 WAR that (age 24) season so he was already a superstar by that point. Chourio has produced quality numbers but not quite at Barry's level. 

First, well that wasn't what the discussion was about. It was guys who took a big leap after a few years after having come up early.  Bonds is in the discussion. 

Second, he hit .777ops with 19 hrs.  If he had a high WAR pushed by great D, ok thats great, but he hit 777 with 19 hrs. That is far from superstar.  Those years he batted between .223-280 avg with normal to good walks on top, and didn't have more than 25 HRs. He made zero AS games,  and appears to have received zero MVP votes, again not quite "superstar" but still good. And remember, this was a much more hitter friendly time. Then the next year he exploded to win MVP and increase his OPS 200 pts.  IDK to me, this lines up pretty darn well with what the original discussion point. 

[endaround]

18 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

First, well that wasn't what the discussion was about. It was guys who took a big leap after a few years after having come up early.  Bonds is in the discussion. 

Second, he hit .777ops with 19 hrs.  If he had a high WAR pushed by great D, ok thats great, but he hit 777 with 19 hrs. That is far from superstar.  Those years he batted between .223-280 avg with normal to good walks on top, and didn't have more than 25 HRs. He made zero AS games,  and appears to have received zero MVP votes, again not quite "superstar" but still good. And remember, this was a much more hitter friendly time. Then the next year he exploded to win MVP and increase his OPS 200 pts.  IDK to me, this lines up pretty darn well with what the original discussion point. 

Bonds has a wRC+ of 146 at age 23. He fell to 121 at age 24 before going up to 165 at 25. The offensive environment exploded in the early 90s so you just can't look at late 80s OPS and compare them directly to early 90s OPS.

[Samurai Bucky]

PCA for sure today, except he has a Richard problem if you know what I mean.

[MrTPlush]

5 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

His SLG% each year in the majors has been almost identical

Chourio? Right, but the last four months of 2024 his slugging percentage was .500+ three months straight and the one sub .500 month was a .495 in September.

His second half was incredible.

[sveumrules]

7 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Who are some recent players similar to Chourio that eventually broke out?

Chourio is one of an even fifty players to get at least 1,000 PA during their age 22 or younger seasons during the Thirty Team Era (1998 onward). Some of his current ranks on that leaderboard...

1,525 PA (14th) | 115 wRC+ (21st) | +8.4 BsR (13th) | 8.8 WAR (19th)
74 BB+ (38th) | 98 K+ (27th) | 111 AVG+ (16th) | 121 ISO+ (24th)

By the end of the season he should surpass Ozzie Albies in 13th with 9.7 WAR but would need to go on a pretty insane heater to catch Julio Rodriguez in 12th with 11.6 WAR.

Here are the three hitting profiles from the leaderboard that stood out to me as having the most similarities thru age 22, then how they did from 23 to 29...

thru 22 Xander Bogaerts (1298 PA | 96 wRC+)
76 BB+ | 98 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 76 ISO+
23 to 29 Xander Bogaerts (4091 PA | 124 wRC+)
113 BB+ | 82 K+ | 118 AVG+ | 109 ISO+
[Xander22 is about as close as it gets to Jackson in BB/K/AVG but had considerably less power. Xander29 figured out plate discipline, raising both his hit and damage frequency]

thru 22 Manny Machado (1979 PA | 115 wRC+)
83 BB+ | 85 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 117 ISO+
23 to 29 Manny Machado (4294 PA | 128 wRC+)
104 BB+ | 79 K+ | 112 AVG+ | 134 ISO+
[Manny22 probably has the closest overall line to Jackson stylistically. Manny29 also made plate discipline strides compared to his younger self which he leveraged into a nice ISO increase]

thru 22 Rafael Devers (1432 PA | 114 wRC+)
86 BB+ | 94 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 123 ISO+
23 to 29 Rafael Devers (4000 PA | 130 wRC+)
123 BB+ | 102 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 146 ISO+
[not the best physical comp, but the thru 22 performance is pretty spot on with Jackson before kicking up the BB and ISO through the rest of his twenties]

Going back a little further couple two tree other possible comps could be...

thru 22 Ted Simmons (1516 PA | 111 wRC+)
75 BB+ | 71 K+ | 112 AVG+ | 104 ISO+
23 to 29 Ted Simmons (4352 PA | 129 wRC+)
118 BB+ | 49 K+ | 113 AVG+ | 135 ISO+
[Ted22 pretty close on BB/AVG with better K but not quite as much ISO as Jackson. Ted29 really figured out the plate discipline en route to more power output]

thru 22 Roberto Alomar (1959 PA | 106 wRC+)
88 BB+ | 84 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 77 ISO+
23 to 29 Roberto Alomar (4273 PA | 128 wRC+)
115 BB+ | 62 K+ | 117 AVG+ | 105 ISO+
[kind of a similar case as Xander where the BB/K/AVG are all in the ballpark of Jackson but not nearly as much pop. Roberto29 (stop me if you've heard this one before) leveraged his plate discipline gains to raising both his hit and damage frequency]

thru 22 Robin Yount (2869 PA | 89 wRC+)
61 BB+ | 85 K+ | 104 AVG+ | 75 ISO+
23 to 29 Robin Yount (4279 PA | 126 wRC+)
91 BB+ | 74 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 133 ISO+
[Robin22 was nowhere near the hitter Jackson has been in any regard (over almost twice as many PA) then made major improvements across the board (especially in the power department) through the rest of his twenties]

Essentially it will boil down to how much Chourio can figure out some kind of consistent plate approach and how long it takes him to do so. To his credit, PCA has made those strides this season cutting down his Swing% and raising his BB% exponentially en route to career high BABIP and ISO marks.

[tmwiese55]

58 minutes ago, endaround said:

Bonds has a wRC+ of 146 at age 23. He fell to 121 at age 24 before going up to 165 at 25. The offensive environment exploded in the early 90s so you just can't look at late 80s OPS and compare them directly to early 90s OPS.

Yes, Bonds was good when he came up young (750-850 ops with 16-25hr). Then he took a massive leap at age 25 to best in the world (usually around 1 ops and over 40 hrs) from then on.   That's what the discussion was about, trying to think of people like that.

[Valentín Viña]

45 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Chourio is one of an even fifty players to get at least 1,000 PA during their age 22 or younger seasons during the Thirty Team Era (1998 onward). Some of his current ranks on that leaderboard...

1,525 PA (14th) | 115 wRC+ (21st) | +8.4 BsR (13th) | 8.8 WAR (19th)
74 BB+ (38th) | 98 K+ (27th) | 111 AVG+ (16th) | 121 ISO+ (24th)

By the end of the season he should surpass Ozzie Albies in 13th with 9.7 WAR but would need to go on a pretty insane heater to catch Julio Rodriguez in 12th with 11.6 WAR.

Here are the three hitting profiles from the leaderboard that stood out to me as having the most similarities thru age 22, then how they did from 23 to 29...

thru 22 Xander Bogaerts (1298 PA | 96 wRC+)
76 BB+ | 98 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 76 ISO+
23 to 29 Xander Bogaerts (4091 PA | 124 wRC+)
113 BB+ | 82 K+ | 118 AVG+ | 109 ISO+
[Xander22 is about as close as it gets to Jackson in BB/K/AVG but had considerably less power. Xander29 figured out plate discipline, raising both his hit and damage frequency]

thru 22 Manny Machado (1979 PA | 115 wRC+)
83 BB+ | 85 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 117 ISO+
23 to 29 Manny Machado (4294 PA | 128 wRC+)
104 BB+ | 79 K+ | 112 AVG+ | 134 ISO+
[Manny22 probably has the closest overall line to Jackson stylistically. Manny29 also made plate discipline strides compared to his younger self which he leveraged into a nice ISO increase]

thru 22 Rafael Devers (1432 PA | 114 wRC+)
86 BB+ | 94 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 123 ISO+
23 to 29 Rafael Devers (4000 PA | 130 wRC+)
123 BB+ | 102 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 146 ISO+
[not the best physical comp, but the thru 22 performance is pretty spot on with Jackson before kicking up the BB and ISO through the rest of his twenties]

Going back a little further couple two tree other possible comps could be...

thru 22 Ted Simmons (1516 PA | 111 wRC+)
75 BB+ | 71 K+ | 112 AVG+ | 104 ISO+
23 to 29 Ted Simmons (4352 PA | 129 wRC+)
118 BB+ | 49 K+ | 113 AVG+ | 135 ISO+
[Ted22 pretty close on BB/AVG with better K but not quite as much ISO as Jackson. Ted29 really figured out the plate discipline en route to more power output]

thru 22 Roberto Alomar (1959 PA | 106 wRC+)
88 BB+ | 84 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 77 ISO+
23 to 29 Roberto Alomar (4273 PA | 128 wRC+)
115 BB+ | 62 K+ | 117 AVG+ | 105 ISO+
[kind of a similar case as Xander where the BB/K/AVG are all in the ballpark of Jackson but not nearly as much pop. Roberto29 (stop me if you've heard this one before) leveraged his plate discipline gains to raising both his hit and damage frequency]

thru 22 Robin Yount (2869 PA | 89 wRC+)
61 BB+ | 85 K+ | 104 AVG+ | 75 ISO+
23 to 29 Robin Yount (4279 PA | 126 wRC+)
91 BB+ | 74 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 133 ISO+
[Robin22 was nowhere near the hitter Jackson has been in any regard (over almost twice as many PA) then made major improvements across the board (especially in the power department) through the rest of his twenties]

Essentially it will boil down to how much Chourio can figure out some kind of consistent plate approach and how long it takes him to do so. To his credit, PCA has made those strides this season cutting down his Swing% and raising his BB% exponentially en route to career high BABIP and ISO marks.

 

Great post. Plate discipline/approach is the only thing holding him back imo. He'll be a monster once he figures it out. 

 

44 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Yes, Bonds was good when he came up young (750-850 ops with 16-25hr). Then he took a massive leap at age 25 to best in the world (usually around 1 ops and over 40 hrs) from then on.   That's what the discussion was about, trying to think of people like that.

 

It's a good comparison. Bonds showed more improvement his first three years, but Chourio is in HOF company. 

[endaround]

Chourio's most similar hitter through age 21 is Justin Upton. Upton is a fine player with some All Star level years and a borderline MVP caliber year at age 23. But he's not an Acuna or Soto type hitter. So I think it's more the selling of Chourio as a generational HOF player versus an above average starter.

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Chourio? Right, but the last four months of 2024 his slugging percentage was .500+ three months straight and the one sub .500 month was a .495 in September.

His second half was incredible.

Ok, so what? In large full season samples his slugging percentages have been:

2024: . 464

2025:  .463

2026 (to date): .462

Whats more his BA has been:

’24:  .275

’25: .270

’26; . 276

Like you, I hope he’s got another gear as he gets older and becomes a 30/30 .300 threat. But so far in his career he’s been really consistent in BA and SLG% and the .790 OPS so who knows?

[Zad Fnark]

My only thought...

Chourio isn't a doosh.

[RWeeksFan23]

2 hours ago, endaround said:

Chourio's most similar hitter through age 21 is Justin Upton. Upton is a fine player with some All Star level years and a borderline MVP caliber year at age 23. But he's not an Acuna or Soto type hitter. So I think it's more the selling of Chourio as a generational HOF player versus an above average starter.

Justin Upton.. that's actually a perfect player comp for Chourio. Good call.

[BrewerFan]

PCA is clearly the answer at this point.

I think Chourio is going to break out... but he hasn't done it just yet. If he does that... I guess he'd look like what PCA is right now minus the defense.

PCA seems like he could have a lot more potential downside whereas Chourio... I think this is his baseline. 

I'm perfectly happy taking Chourio from here on out and hoping he can take the next step. 

[homer]

When Crow Armstrong was Chourio's age he had a 670 OPS.

[Fear The Chorizo]

10 minutes ago, homer said:

When Crow Armstrong was Chourio's age he had a 670 OPS.

I am not convinced that if pitchers just didnt throw Armstrong strikes, he wouldnt just revert back to being a liability offensively for half a season.  He has been much better at drawing walks this season compared to being awful at it, but there's still a ton of swing and miss in his game.

He also has a very, very punchable face.

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, Valentín Viña said:

 

Bonds did better than ok. He was well above average by age 22 and never really let up. 

To answer OP's question, I think PCA has the clearer higher probability path to sustained stardom. Elite CF defense alone gives him a higher floor. Average arm strength caps Chourio's ceiling relative to a true elite defender. Historically, elite CF defense and offensive output by age 24 tend to sustain high value for years.

Chourio has youth on his side but he's gonna have to show some real improvement next season to keep pace with PCA. 

At 22, Bonds had a 114 OPS+.
At 24, Bonds had a .248/.351/.426 line... but that .777 OPS was good for a 126 OPS+

What's weird about Bonds is that he had so much dWAR in a couple of those younger years 3.5 one year, 2.5 another. Not the Bonds we remember.

Chourio OPS+
20-118
21-112
22-118

I'd also disagree with his average arm strength. His arm strength is in the 80th percentile. I think Chourio can become an elite LFer or RFer(his arm in right is probably closer to average, though it's stronger than Frelick's and he's been just fine).

BUT... PCA's floor is probably a 5 WAR player with his defense. If he keeps walking like he is and being more selective, he's got 9-10 WAR upside(he'll likely hit that this year). 

I think Chourio CAN have some monster .300 40 HR, 40 SB season in him and hopefully a few, but as of now, it's clearly PCA. 

Even if Chourio does that, PCA's defense is SO good he could regress offensively and be the better overall player. 

 

[Underachiever]

14 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

He also has a very, very punchable face.

That’s the only metric I care about. PCA has a PFI of 179, one of the highest in the live ball era. His weighted xPFI, which factors in that he plays for the Cubs, is an astounding 221. Only players to come close to that number? The entirety of the Cardinals organization. 
 

@sveumrules, check my math.

[Samurai Bucky]

2 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

That’s the only metric I care about. PCA has a PFI of 179, one of the highest in the live ball era. His weighted xPFI, which factors in that he plays for the Cubs, is an astounding 221. Only players to come close to that number? The entirety of the Cardinals organization. 
 

@sveumrules, check my math.

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