2026 Postseason Thread

[HarryDoyle]

Large market teams tanking in the playoffs to gain leverage in CBA negotiations would be one heck of a conspiracy theory. 

[Frisbee Slider]

2 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

Large market teams tanking in the playoffs to gain leverage in CBA negotiations would be one heck of a conspiracy theory. 

There would be hundreds of millions of dollars incentive per large market owner to do it…

I don’t think there is any evidence of conspiracy and I can’t imagine owners or managers would ever say those things out loud 

[MrTPlush]

What large market is tanking?

The Rays and Brewers are the best teams in baseball. The Yankees are clearly an inferior team, as are the Padres.

I doubt owners are that dense and shortsighted to make one postseason throw away their actual thoughts on the CBA.

[Jopal78]

6 hours ago, craigharmann said:

And then we might actually have a glimmer of hope that we’d see baseball in 2027. As of now, I’m not expecting a season. 

There will be at least a 60 game season in 2027. Manfred has set up all of the broadcasting contracts in such a way to take them collectively to the market in 2028; a less than a 60 game season would mean several of the national TV contracts extend for another year at the current rates, blowing up the plans they’ve been making for years . Let’s see when March 2027 rolls around what the owners’ actual appetite for losses is and that is probably when the negotiations will start in earnest. 

[Underachiever]

17 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

There will be at least a 60 game season in 2027. Manfred has set up all of the broadcasting contracts in such a way to take them collectively to the market in 2028; a less than a 60 game season would mean several of the national TV contracts extend for another year at the current rates, blowing up the plans they’ve been making for years . Let’s see when March 2027 rolls around what the owners’ actual appetite for losses is and that is probably when the negotiations will start in earnest. 

A 60-game season seems almost worse than no season at all. At least covid was an excuse the last time. A settlement that saves a 60-game season would show the cynical control the owners have over this process. 

[owbc]

I think they play at least 154 but Opening Day will be delayed. 

The current revenue situation in baseball doesn't scream "work stoppage" to me. Attendance up several years in a row, the biggest stadium/franchise issues now resolved, both players and owners racking in cash. They will punt it forward again. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

5 minutes ago, owbc said:

I think they play at least 154 but Opening Day will be delayed. 

The current revenue situation in baseball doesn't scream "work stoppage" to me. Attendance up several years in a row, the biggest stadium/franchise issues now resolved, both players and owners racking in cash. They will punt it forward again. 

Agree with this. I think negativity bias and a readiness to accept posturing as fact make the consensus tilt too far toward labor crisis.

I could be wrong. I think there's still a significant chance the season gets delayed at least a bit. Prediction markets (find them super troubling, but useful as an indicator of consensus) have full season odds at like 45%. I'd think it's slightly higher than that. 

[craigharmann]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

There will be at least a 60 game season in 2027. Manfred has set up all of the broadcasting contracts in such a way to take them collectively to the market in 2028; a less than a 60 game season would mean several of the national TV contracts extend for another year at the current rates, blowing up the plans they’ve been making for years . Let’s see when March 2027 rolls around what the owners’ actual appetite for losses is and that is probably when the negotiations will start in earnest. 

 

As I learned many years ago when Ray Rhodes was sadly the coach of the Packers for one year, if you set your expectations as low as possible, you more than likely won't be disappointed and possibly, you'll be surprised. If I expect no games, and games happen, SURPRISE!! If I expect a number of games and that number isn't met or no games happen, I'm disappointed. I can't tell you how much that has helped with sports, including the Packers this year. 

[Paul77]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

There will be at least a 60 game season in 2027. Manfred has set up all of the broadcasting contracts in such a way to take them collectively to the market in 2028; a less than a 60 game season would mean several of the national TV contracts extend for another year at the current rates, blowing up the plans they’ve been making for years . Let’s see when March 2027 rolls around what the owners’ actual appetite for losses is and that is probably when the negotiations will start in earnest. 

I understood this differently. I thought I read that if 60 or more games are canceled, the TV contracts extend into 2029. 

[thebruce44]

Of course I would rather have a full season, but a 60 game season would actually be super exciting. Like being in a playoff chase from opening day. And it would benefit the Brewers as their SP is still trying to ramp up innings. The boys would be hitting their stride right into October.

[HarryDoyle]

For all the talk about the brilliance of the Braves to get Sale to pitch in Game 3 in a tie series, Yamamoto has clearly been the better pitcher tonight. The Dodgers are winning this series and most likely threepeating.

[Frisbee Slider]

14 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

For all the talk about the brilliance of the Braves to get Sale to pitch in Game 3 in a tie series, Yamamoto has clearly been the better pitcher tonight. The Dodgers are winning this series and most likely threepeating.

What if Yamamoto begins to tip his pitches? 🙂🤷‍♂️

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, HarryDoyle said:

The Dodgers are winning this series and most likely threepeating.

You're lucky this ain't the optimism thread. ;)

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Dodgers get Game 3. Flip home field advantage right back.

[Jopal78]

5 hours ago, Paul77 said:

I understood this differently. I thought I read that if 60 or more games are canceled, the TV contracts extend into 2029. 

Either way, they intentionally set up all their broadcast contracts to expire at the same time so they can take them to market as a bundle. 
 

I don’t see the owners having an appetite for billions in lost revenue in the short run and then losing intentionally built leverage in selling their broadcast rights 

[BruisedCrew]

15 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

For all the talk about the brilliance of the Braves to get Sale to pitch in Game 3 in a tie series, Yamamoto has clearly been the better pitcher tonight. The Dodgers are winning this series and most likely threepeating.

Last night’s game was a reminder of how big.a disadvantage the Brewers will be at if they are fortunate enough to get to the NLCS,. It will be even worse if they lose tonight (which I guess we should expect in a playoff road game with no reliable SP available) and have to lean on Misiorowski to salvage Game 5  

While the Brewers have to scramble to cover 27 outs the Dodgers can just call on one of their stable of All Star caliber starters to fill 5 innings or more. The Dodgers also showed why you should ignore their regular season statistics the way you would ignore most teams’ spring training numbers. Kike Hernandez can sit out most of the season but all you have to do is plug him in against an elite pitcher in the playoffs and he hits home runs. And Freddie Freeman can play in the regular season like he’s 45 years old but the playoffs come and he sprays big hits and home runs all over the field. 

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Last night’s game was a reminder of how big.a disadvantage the Brewers will be at if they are fortunate enough to get to the NLCS,. It will be even worse if they lose tonight (which I guess we should expect in a playoff road game with no reliable SP available) and have to lean on Misiorowski to salvage Game 5  

While the Brewers have to scramble to cover 27 outs the Dodgers can just call on one of their stable of All Star caliber starters to fill 5 innings or more. The Dodgers also showed why you should ignore their regular season statistics the way you would ignore most teams’ spring training numbers. Kike Hernandez can sit out most of the season but all you have to do is plug him in against an elite pitcher in the playoffs and he hits home runs. And Freddie Freeman can play in the regular season like he’s 45 years old but the playoffs come and he sprays big hits and home runs all over the field. 

They do have a major Ohtani problem right now. They don't win without him having a huge NLCS and WS last year. 

He's currently a shell of himself. 

[owbc]

19 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They do have a major Ohtani problem right now. They don't win without him having a huge NLCS and WS last year. 

He's currently a shell of himself. 

The Dodgers are incredibly vulnerable. I don't see them beating us or the Rays. The Braves don't have enough bats to put sustained pressure on their pitching. 

They would stomp the Padres. I have no idea what the Padres are doing managing the first 3 games of the division series like they are the last game of the playoffs. I get that they had to win the elimination game last night, but their use of King was incredibly irresponsible after they already overused Morejon. You have to have at least some plan for what happens when you win and have to play more games. 

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They do have a major Ohtani problem right now. They don't win without him having a huge NLCS and WS last year. 

He's currently a shell of himself. 

They would have beaten the Brewers without Ohtani last year based on their pitching shutting down the Brewers offense. Sub in Skubal for Ohtani to go with Yamamoto, Snell, and Glasnow and they are just as strong in that department this year.

The open question is whether the Brewers can score enough runs to out score what the Dodgers would get, especially in the games not started by Miz and Henderson.

If the Brewers lose tonight and win Friday Miz wouldn’t be available until game 3.

The Brewers offensive output in the games against the Padres much weaker SP doesn’t give me  confidence about what they could do against the Dodgers  

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

They would have beaten the Brewers without Ohtani last year based on their pitching shutting down the Brewers offense. Sub in Skubal for Ohtani to go with Yamamoto, Snell, and Glasnow and they are just as strong in that department this year.

The open question is whether the Brewers can score enough runs to out score what the Dodgers would get, especially in the games not started by Miz and Henderson.

If the Brewers lose tonight and win Friday Miz wouldn’t be available until game 3.

The Brewers offensive output in the games against the Padres much weaker SP doesn’t give me  confidence about what they could do against the Dodgers  

 

 

Ohtani being a shell of himself is still quite relevant. He carried that offense last postseason. He is not anywhere near that right now. 

Brewers' bats have also been quite unlucky in this series. They have the highest xwOBA of any team in the Division Series. 

 

[BruisedCrew]

BTW does anybody have easy access to the exit velocity and launch angle for Contreras HR last night compared to France’s on Saturday. 

When one of the announcers last night said about Contreras HR that it was a moonshot, but “there was no roof to knock it down “ it was pretty apparent that that incident isn’t going to be forgotten soon and will be thrown out as a stain if the Brewers win the series. 

I’d also like to know if anyone has tried to measure how far that ball was from home plate when it hit the cable. 
 

 

[Underachiever]

9 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

BTW does anybody have easy access to the exit velocity and launch angle for Contreras HR last night compared to France’s on Saturday. 

When one of the announcers last night said about Contreras HR that it was a moonshot, but “there was no roof to knock it down “ it was pretty apparent that that incident isn’t going to be forgotten soon and will be thrown out as a stain if the Brewers win the series. 

I’d also like to know if anyone has tried to measure how far that ball was from home plate when it hit the cable. 
 

 

Contreras: 102.8 mph, 365 ft, 40 degree launch angle.

We don't need to measure France's shot when it hit the cable. Statcast has already told us that it would have only been a homer in Daikin park. I trust Chourio's judgment on fly balls, and he was running toward foul territory, not drifting back to the wall. (I would be curious to hear what Chourio would say about it; I missed it if he addresed it.)

[Jirsch]

To answer on Chourios reaction to the play:

Chourio was credited with staying with the play to get the out. He said he wasn't sure what happened high above him.

"I thought I had a chance on that ball kind of the whole time off the bat," he said through the team interpreter. "Then the only thing I kind of realized, it changed direction a little bit, but I thought I had a beat on it for the majority of the time."

And the StatCast explanation that I found:

The ball left Ty France's bat at 105.3 mph, but with an incredibly steep 49-degree launch angle. In physics and baseball tracking, launch angle is everything.

• A 49-degree angle means the ball was hit almost straight up—a massive "moonshot" pop-up.
• According to actual historical Statcast data, balls hit at 105.3 mph with a 49-degree launch angle result in outs 99.5% of the time.
• There has never been a home run with a launch angle above 46 degrees hit at American Family Field in the entire Statcast era.
• The roof was closed, meaning there was no outfield breeze to carry a ball that was pushed so high into the air.
• Actual trajectory modeling showed that France's hit would have only been a home run in exactly one MLB stadium: Daikin Park in Houston, purely because of its uniquely short 315-foot "Crawford Boxes" in left field.
• If a ball is genuinely projected to travel 410 feet (deep into the stands), the outfielder will immediately turn around and sprint back to the wall.
• On this play, Brewers left fielder Chourio barely moved. He tracked the ball off the bat, drifted slightly, and camped out on the warning track.
• Chourio noted after the game that he felt he "had a chance on that ball the whole time" and only noticed a slight change in direction when it ticked the cable.
• The ball didn't drop out of the sky because it was robbed of 410 feet of distance; it dropped because it was a towering pop-up that was already destined to land right in the left fielder's glove.

[BruisedCrew]

12 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Contreras: 102.8 mph, 365 ft, 40 degree launch angle.

We don't need to measure France's shot when it hit the cable. Statcast has already told us that it would have only been a homer in Daikin park. I trust Chourio's judgment on fly balls, and he was running toward foul territory, not drifting back to the wall. (I would be curious to hear what Chourio would say about it; I missed it if he addresed it.)

He did say something (through his interpreter) that he thought he had a good read on it and that he didn’t know it had hit anything but that it seemed to change direction.

I also thought that it was telling that he was moving toward the foul line, not back toward the foul pole.  

I note that Contreras’  launch angle of 40 degrees, while on the high side for a home run, was significantly less than the 49 degrees for France.

There’s probably a good chance that ball would have hooked foul, but most likely wouldn’t have been a HR. 

[Underachiever]

I can say with as much certainty as anyone else, that Chourio would have leaped and brought the ball back from over the wall. So, instead of robbing France of a homer, the cable robbed Chourio of a moment that would have added to his legend. So, Chourio and the Milwaukee fans were the only people who got robbed. That's my story.