Padres (Pivetta) vs Brewers (May): 10/6/26, 8:30pm

[torts]

59 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

This one should end around midnight central time?

So... 1 am eastern?  No one's going to like me tomorrow 

[MrTPlush]

I’m guessing the leash on May is so short there isn’t any way he would blow the game for us.

May has experience against the Padres, experience at Petco Park, and experience starting a game at Petco Park in the postseason. After watching two inexperienced guys struggle to start games, I don’t hate a veteran taking the ball to start on the road. May very well may be out there to just pitch an inning so Gasser isn’t opening the game pitching under the bright lights. We shall see.

It should be noted, while May has three postseason starts they all appear to have been to just be an opener…or the leash was just that short on stacked Dodgers teams. 

[Turning2]

11 minutes ago, Menotti80 said:

How amazing would it be to have "April-June" Kyle Harrison starting tonight?

Alas...

Or 2025 Priester. Or a healthy Woody. 

[RobertCrawley]

Let’s take no chances. Get it done tonight!

[thammondwis]

16 minutes ago, Menotti80 said:

How amazing would it be to have "April-June" Kyle Harrison starting tonight?

Alas...

I do wonder if the Brewers knew how bad Kyle would be post trade deadline, would they have tried a better minor league player offer for Skubal.

[TURBO]

I am not on board with starting May tonight, not at all.

I don’t want to start him just because we traded for him.  Gasser has more than outpitched him down the stretch, and at this point, we need to play our best players.

So, I hope he goes out there and goes 7 innings of no run baseball, but I just don’t see it happening.

Pancakes better have a very short leash, and Gasser on standby.

 

[torts]

2 minutes ago, thammondwis said:

I do wonder if the Brewers knew how bad Kyle would be post trade deadline, would they have tried a better minor league player offer for Skubal.

And yet, they managed to win only 103 games with Kyle still in the rotation 

[tmwiese55]

I'm generally fine with May going in this with SD being more of a RH hitting lineup.  I also think they're plan is probably one time through the order with him, unless he's just cruising easily. At which point they'll still yank as soon as there is trouble.     I'd guess if this was Philly/LA with all the lefties it would be Gasser

[thammondwis]

3 minutes ago, torts said:

And yet, they managed to win only 103 games with Kyle still in the rotation 

I get that, but if Skubal was a Brewer instead of a Dodger, then I think the consensus would be Milwaukee is world series favorite.  I believe most people think the Dodgers are the world series favorite now.

[gregmag]

13 minutes ago, thammondwis said:

I do wonder if the Brewers knew how bad Kyle would be post trade deadline, would they have tried a better minor league player offer for Skubal.

If, as reported, the Tigers were insisting on Henderson, then Harrison’s status was irrelevant. The “upgrade” from Henderson to Skubal was negligible either way. Maybe the postseason upgrade would have been worth five years of Henderson . . . but then maybe Harrison is back to being useful now. 

[thammondwis]

5 minutes ago, gregmag said:

If, as reported, the Tigers were insisting on Henderson, then Harrison’s status was irrelevant. The “upgrade” from Henderson to Skubal was negligible either way. Maybe the postseason upgrade would have been worth five years of Henderson . . . but then maybe Harrison is back to being useful now. 

Agree 100% that any potential trade couldn't involve Henderson.  Just not sure how aggressive Brewers were in a strictly minor league player offer thinking they were set with Harrision.

[HarveysWBs]

16 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I am not on board with starting May tonight, not at all.

I don’t want to start him just because we traded for him.  Gasser has more than outpitched him down the stretch, and at this point, we need to play our best players.

So, I hope he goes out there and goes 7 innings of no run baseball, but I just don’t see it happening.

Pancakes better have a very short leash, and Gasser on standby.

 

I can virtually guarantee you that the Brewers brass are aware of the sunk cost fallacy and are not trotting May out there because they put sizable resources into his acquisition. You are mixing up the causal links here: the Brewers are starting May because they believe in his stuff, which is what caused them to trade for him in the first place.

Now, that being said, I'll acknowledge that their belief may prove to be misplaced. The issue has been litigated enough around here that I have nothing really to add to that discussion apart from to say that I think tonight (and any subsequent playoff appearance May is able to see) will be the real test of the wisdom or folly of that trade.

I also think the leash will be short. Nobody is going to be asked to simply wear a clunker and eat innings in the playoffs, so if May struggles, I think we can count on Murphy for the hook.

[thammondwis]

19 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I am not on board with starting May tonight, not at all.

I don’t want to start him just because we traded for him.  Gasser has more than outpitched him down the stretch, and at this point, we need to play our best players.

So, I hope he goes out there and goes 7 innings of no run baseball, but I just don’t see it happening.

Pancakes better have a very short leash, and Gasser on standby.

 

That scenario kind of scares me.  If May/Gasser goes tonight and they lose, then what do they do tomorrow?  I think I would prefer May/Harrison or Drohan and keep Gasser for game 4.

[gregmag]

2 minutes ago, thammondwis said:

Agree 100% that any potential trade couldn't involve Henderson.  Just not sure how aggressive Brewers were in a strictly minor league player offer thinking they were set with Harrision.

As I understood the reports at the time, the Tigers wanted a package built around a pitcher and a position player. The Brewers offered Pena as the position player, and the Tigers wanted Henderson as the pitcher. Literally the only pitcher the Brewers own with more value than Henderson is Miz, so you can’t improve the package on that side. The Brewers’ only minor league position player with more value than Pena is Made. I don’t think even the most extreme “prospects have no value except to other teams“ people argued for trading Made, who has a very real chance to be better than Chourio. Maybe I’m missing something – maybe the Tigers would’ve settled for Fischer and the Brewers refused to part with him — but it seems unlikely that both of those things were true. I’ve heard no indication that the Tigers were interested in quantity over what they perceived as quality. So I literally can’t see any way to get the deal done without Henderson.

[ReverendBrewmeister]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

This one should end around midnight central time?

Going to be a short night/early morning for us in the East Coast contingent of Brewers fans. Hope the team makes it totally worth it with a win.

[thammondwis]

5 minutes ago, gregmag said:

As I understood the reports at the time, the Tigers wanted a package built around a pitcher and a position player. The Brewers offered Pena as the position player, and the Tigers wanted Henderson as the pitcher. Literally the only pitcher the Brewers own with more value than Henderson is Miz, so you can’t improve the package on that side. The Brewers’ only minor league position player with more value than Pena is Made. I don’t think even the most extreme “prospects have no value except to other teams“ people argued for trading Made, who has a very real chance to be better than Chourio. Maybe I’m missing something – maybe the Tigers would’ve settled for Fischer and the Brewers refused to part with him — but it seems unlikely that both of those things were true. I’ve heard no indication that the Tigers were interested in quantity over what they perceived as quality. So I literally can’t see any way to get the deal done without Henderson.

Thank you for that explanation.  I wasn't into the minutia of the details at the time. 

I just recall the general consensus I had heard at the time, was that what the Dodgers gave up wasn't all that much (and I'm not all that knowledgeable on what they did give up TBH).  So, putting aside what the Tiger's were supposedly requesting.  Could the Brewers have matched quality of the Dodger's offer without including Henderson?

[Playing Catch]

10 minutes ago, thammondwis said:

Could the Brewers have matched quality of the Dodger's offer without including Henderson?

The short answer is 'yes'. The Brewers could have offered Made, Pena, Frias, Ragsdale, and 10 minor league pitchers for Skubal. The question then, is do the Dodgers offer still MORE?

As tmwiese55 mentions above, I think the Padres lineup is an especially difficult task for the Brewers and their left-handed dominant staff. Tatis, Machado, France. It's hard to get through them all with a lefty. I think Gasser's sweeper can neutralize them, but as we saw during the regular season, if he can't land that pitch in just the right spot, things can unravel on him quickly.

The Friars are back in their happy-place at Petco, sure. But regular season losses aren't to be feared, so it's a party in Padreland every night. But elimination games bring on an awful lot of nerves.

If the Crew get out to any kind of lead, I suspect the Padres crowd to sound different tonight, and for those Padres sticks to get gripped real tight. Conversely, I think the Brewers will play one of their finest games of the season. The Padres could end up beating them, but I'd be surprised if the Brewers lay another stinker playing away from home with a 2-0 lead in the series. I expect the Brewers to beat them in a rout, playing free, playing focused, and playing for fun.

[MrTPlush]

17 minutes ago, thammondwis said:

Thank you for that explanation.  I wasn't into the minutia of the details at the time. 

I just recall the general consensus I had heard at the time, was that what the Dodgers gave up wasn't all that much (and I'm not all that knowledgeable on what they did give up TBH).  So, putting aside what the Tiger's were supposedly requesting.  Could the Brewers have matched quality of the Dodger's offer without including Henderson?

You can make all the hypothetical trades with more value. It doesn’t mean the Dodgers value those guys the same or they were valid replacements in the offer.

The A’s specifically wanted that one OFer from us in the trade that brought us Contreras. No player was an alternative offer. The Dodgers may have flat out wanted Henderson.