Rays throw a curveball

[markedman5]

 

[wildcat83]

I think this has more to do with getting Rasmussen matched up with someone that is not Misorowski.  He's still available to throw the same number of times in the series, and they don't risk wasting a good start if Miz has a great one.  I always liked this strategy if the opponent had a true ace.  Throw a wildcard against their ace, and throw your ace against their number 2.  They are probably viewing a split in Milwaukee as a victory overall.

 

Martinez has pretty strong road splits as well, much better on the road than at home, and this gets Freddy away from starting in Milwaukee.  There are a lot of positives from the TB point of view.

[thammondwis]

Interesting strategy.  Would the Brewers swapping Gasser and Henderson be a good counter strategy?

[sobomp3]

1 minute ago, thammondwis said:

Interesting strategy.  Would the Brewers swapping Gasser and Henderson be a good counter strategy?

First thing that popped in my mind!

[Jim French Stepstool]

14 minutes ago, wildcat83 said:

I think this has more to do with getting Rasmussen matched up with someone that is not Misorowski.  He's still available to throw the same number of times in the series, and they don't risk wasting a good start if Miz has a great one.  I always liked this strategy if the opponent had a true ace.  Throw a wildcard against their ace, and throw your ace against their number 2.  They are probably viewing a split in Milwaukee as a victory overall.

 

Martinez has pretty strong road splits as well, much better on the road than at home, and this gets Freddy away from starting in Milwaukee.  There are a lot of positives from the TB point of view.

I thought something might be up when they resisted naming a starter despite Rasmussen being available. And I think your theories as to the reasons behind it are spot-on.

[Team Canada]

4 minutes ago, thammondwis said:

Interesting strategy.  Would the Brewers swapping Gasser and Henderson be a good counter strategy?

Other than rest reasons, I can't imagine wanting to do anything other than pitch your best pitchers as much as possible. I'm getting Miz and Henderson their 2 games apiece (if necessary) and throwing them for however many their arms are good for in G7 if needed.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 minutes ago, thammondwis said:

Interesting strategy.  Would the Brewers swapping Gasser and Henderson be a good counter strategy?

Maybe, but that guarantees Henderson one start, and most likely only one other & then only if there's a 7th game. I think they stick with Misiorowski & Henderson for the first two.

[thammondwis]

2 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

Other than rest reasons, I can't imagine wanting to do anything other than pitch your best pitchers as much as possible. If Freddy only ends up pitching 1 game because the series ends in 6, I think they'll regret it.

True, If they don't win both GM's 2 AND 3 they have put themselves in a BIG hole.

[thammondwis]

7 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

Other than rest reasons, I can't imagine wanting to do anything other than pitch your best pitchers as much as possible. I'm getting Miz and Henderson their 2 games apiece (if necessary) and throwing them for however many their arms are good for in G7 if needed.

The more I think about it, the more it looks like a desperation move for a team that thinks the're outmatched.

[MrTPlush]

Miz hasn’t even pitched that good, what a weird move…and kinda insulting to Rasmussen.

[82brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, thammondwis said:

The more I think about it, the more it looks like a desperation move for a team that thinks the're outmatched.

This was my thought.  They are reacting to a team they know is better than they are.  Only two reasons you do this if you are the Rays.  Either Rasmussen and Peralta actually need more rest or you are trying to manufacture an advantage.

[Frisbee Slider]

Miz and Henderson in game 1 and 2. We are fortunate to have Gasser for game 3. And plenty of LHP in the bullpen for middle innings.

Gasser matches up just fine against the Rays. 

[markedman5]

 

[formerlybis]

I don't see any desperation - seems like a solid move to me. The point is to win more games than the other team, and this kind of makes them a favorite to win 2 of the first 3, I would think, Unconventional, perhaps, but thoughtful.  

[Frisbee Slider]

I hear wanting Peralta to pitch in Tampa, not Milwaukee 

[owbc]

Rasmussen is 42 IP above his previous yearly high (season + postseason), it makes sense that you would try to get him 5 days rest. 

I don't read this as a desperation move, I read it as them expecting a 6-7 game series so in a long series you may as well optimize your rest schedule. 

Where it backfires is if you fall behind in the series and you're sending Martinez out in an elimination game 5 against Miz. Or if it results in a lot of bullpen usage early in the series.

 

[ToolShed55]

I think the last thing the Rays wanted to do was throw an emotional Freddy on his return to Milwaukee. I guarantee there will be an ovation of sorts for him, and rightly so. 

I think the Rays would rather he play at the Trop first rather than have the distraction of a "prodigal son returns" story.

Cash, of course, can't come out and say that, but it's a hunch that makes sense in my excited for game one head!

[82brewcrew82]

You can still lead with Rasmussen and not have Freddy pitch in Milwaukee.

[markedman5]

 

[liveforoctober]

This is exactly what I would have done if I were Tampa. This gives them a paper pitching advantage in 2 of the first 3 games and then gives them Raz and Freddy for 6 & 7 if it gets there.

If you are the Brewers - you are the better team and have home field. You play your game and make them come get you. 

If you are the Rays, you need to tip the scales somehow. This is what I would have done to give myself the best chance. If the Rays steal Gm1 the Crew suddenly has a big uphill climb.

[baseball101]

1 hour ago, formerlybis said:

I don't see any desperation - seems like a solid move to me. The point is to win more games than the other team, and this kind of makes them a favorite to win 2 of the first 3, I would think, Unconventional, perhaps, but thoughtful.  

If you think inserting a different pitcher gives the Rays an advantage in games two and three, you must think the Brewers are in trouble.

[baseball101]

16 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

This is exactly what I would have done if I were Tampa. This gives them a paper pitching advantage in 2 of the first 3 games and then gives them Raz and Freddy for 6 & 7 if it gets there.

If you are the Brewers - you are the better team and have home field. You play your game and make them come get you. 

If you are the Rays, you need to tip the scales somehow. This is what I would have done to give myself the best chance. If the Rays steal Gm1 the Crew suddenly has a big uphill climb.

I don’t buy it. This is the post season. It’s the bullpen. You think game one starter and Freddy Peralta are going more than 3-5 innings? 

[RobertCrawley]

2 hours ago, formerlybis said:

I don't see any desperation - seems like a solid move to me. The point is to win more games than the other team, and this kind of makes them a favorite to win 2 of the first 3, I would think, Unconventional, perhaps, but thoughtful.  

I agree. It makes sense given the tough series they just won. If they somehow manage to win game 1, then they're in a really good position.

[Frisbee Slider]

15 minutes ago, baseball101 said:

I don’t buy it. This is the post season. It’s the bullpen. You think game one starter and Freddy Peralta are going more than 3-5 innings? 

Martinez pitched into the sixth inning during his last start. Same with Peralta, his previous two starts. Rasmussen has averaged seven innings over his past three starts.

That said, I don’t see a meaningful mismatch between any of the first three pitching matchups beside Milwaukee in game one.
 

[liveforoctober]

14 minutes ago, baseball101 said:

I don’t buy it. This is the post season. It’s the bullpen. You think game one starter and Freddy Peralta are going more than 3-5 innings? 

I didn't say either of those things. 

I think there are a bunch of factors in play. Protecting Freddy against being overly emotional in a Gm2 in Milwaukee isn't the worst idea. Rolling the dice that the Brewers bats are a little rusty and trying to sneak 9-12 outs from Martinez using that possibility isn't the worst strategy.