sveumrules

There is no decision, Baez just swings. With his ridiculous contact ability it’s certainly been a suitable approach at the lower levels, but the big question will be if he can maintain that at the upper levels or will it lead to increased weak contact as he faces more advanced pitching that can utilize his aggression against him. That Yophery showed some patience and walked at a 12.2% clip gives me some hope that his approach is more sustainable long term even if it comes with a lot more swing and miss.

I like all of Boeve, Wilken, and Adams but I'm curious how much the Brewers really view any of them as 3B at the MLB level with none of them really profiling as plus defenders at the hot corner.

The finish on his swing in that clip gave me some Jean Segura flashbacks. Pretty similar offensive profiles - low walk, low K, high average, some pop relative to stature.

Kim is aging sure but he’s also heading into his age 29 season as a SS versus Hoskins who was heading into his age 31 season as a 1B/DH. Ha-Seong is starting from a much younger and more athletic place than Rhys was. Boras didn’t really stick the Brewers with anything, both sides negotiated and agreed to the contract. The Brewers understood if Hoskins didn’t have a good enough year to warrant opting out that they would be on the hook for the second year and were fine with assuming that risk, or they wouldn’t have put pen to paper.

Kim will be interesting to follow with the shoulder situation. Would be a pretty nice fit for all the reasons you mentioned otherwise. Could be a candidate to accept the QO if the Padres offer it.

Leaguewide OPS was all the way down at .711 this year (3rd lowest in the last 30 years), so only six qualified shortstops cleared an .800 OPS. Willy's .794 OPS was 7th and once adjusted for home park (119 wRC+) was a scooch better than Elly De La Cruz's .808 OPS | 118 wRC+. Even with a down year defensively, his 4.7 WAR ranked 5th among qualified SS. Had a career year, tied Ken Griffey Jr. for most three run bombs in a single season, and was the unquestioned leader on a team that overachieved every reasonable regular season expectation. The next contract very likely won't be justified, but the hype around Willy's performance this year certainly was.

Jacob MisiorowskiCooper PrattJeferson QueroJesus MadeRobert GasserTyler BlackLogan HendersonYophery RodriguezCraig YohoK.C. HuntBraylon PayneJosh KnothLuke AdamsBrock WilkenEric BitontiLuis PenaMike BoeveLuis LaraJose AndersonErnesto Martinez

If they lose tonight that would make them 2 W - 9 L in their last 11 playoff games. Just another team out there faux competing I guess. Might have to really go for it and push payroll to $350M next year. I dunno, maybe Friedman’s stuff just doesn’t work in the playoffs (global pandemic seasons notwithstanding)

Woodruff’s first “full” season as a starter was 2019 with 22 GS. If we were to say an actual full season (no quotes) is 30 GS, then Brandon has “missed” 8, 0, 3, 19 and 30 starts over the last five full seasons for a total of 60. Even with all that missed time, his 595 IP from 2019-24 still ranks 65th in MLB among only 100 pitchers with at least 500 IP, such is the state of pitching injury around the league. During that same stretch Woody’s 69 ERA- is tied for 1st and his 72 FIP- is tied for 2nd among those same 100 pitchers, so while decline is inevitable (even had he not gotten injured) at least he’ll be regressing from the very tippy top. My realistic expectations are zero or worse, but I don’t think it would be too crazy if Brando came out and pitched something like say 120 IP | 90 ERA- | 2.0 rWAR or thereabouts.

I just submitted my ballot without issue.

If Yelich is good for 130 games next year (BIG IF) my guess is it would shake out something like 90 at DH and 40 in LF.

Perdomo is theoretically available because the DBacks have Jordan Lawlar in the pipeline, though it appears he only played 23 games in the minors this year dealing with a variety of injuries. As for Geraldo's game, out of 324 players with at least 500 PAs over the least two years his standout traits are a 132 BB%+ (49th) and a 73 K%+ (51st) leading to a nice 0.69 BB/K rate (19th) on the good side, but only a 66 ISO+ (287th) on the bad side. That excellent plate discipline and underwhelming power output combined with a slightly above average hit tool (104 AVG+) adds up to a 99 wRC+ for the whole hitting package. The aux skills come in at 25 SB / 5 CS the last two years with his +4.6 BSR ranking 44th despite only having 40th percentile 27.0 ft/sec sprint speed, while his fielding at SS has graded out at +6 by DRS and an even zero by both of StatCasts's Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value.

Per Cot's... Guarantees ($78.25M): Yelich ($24M), Hoskins ($18M), Williams ($10.5M), Peralta ($8M), Rea ($5.5M), Woodruff ($5M), Chourio ($4M), Ashby ($3.25M) Buyouts ($3.5M): don't know if they count on the 2024 or 2025 payroll, but Montas ($2M), Miley ($1.5M) Arbitration (???): number is parentheses is 2024's number so some degree of raise will occur based on performance, Civale ($4.9M), Milner ($2.05M), Payamps ($1.65M), Bauers ($1.35M), Wilson (1.025M), Haase ($1M). Out of those guys I would guess only Civale, Payamps and Haase are back for OD 2025. It is also Contreras, Megill and Mears first years of arbitration. Would guess Contreras will probably come in around the $5.25M that Will Smith got in his first Arby's trip. Everyone else is pre-Arby's so essentially $750-800K based on service time.

Urias as a target would probably be a case of how do the Brewers assess his defense? DRS has him +13 career at 3B in 2,184 innings compared to StatCast having him down for -8 FRV at 3B. Another issue could be his lack of walks. Brewers ran the 2nd highest BB% in MLB this year, 3rd highest in 2023, 4th highest in 2022. Urias has a 7.0% walk rate since 2022 which ranks 159th out of 230 batters with at least 1,000 PAs.

Peralta, Myers, Rea, Civale will all be back. Woodruff and Gasser coming off injury. Front office could still view Hall or Ashby as rotation options next year. Misio, Logan Henderson, KC Hunt, Shane Smith, Chad Patrick, Carlos Rodriguez at AAA. I'm sure they'll add some more depth options around the edges, but I don't really foresee any big payroll type additions to the staff.

The same bull headed determination that got him to 4,256 prevented him from owning up to his betting on baseball, and ultimately getting into the Hall. His life was essentially like a Greek Tragedy on AstroTurf.

For additional context on some of the other categories, here are the 2024 Brewers ranks out of 300 individual team seasons over the last decade... 217 stolen bases (2nd) +14.25 bullpen WPA (2nd) -0.54 ERA / FIP (3rd) +19.8 BsR (4th)

Yeah, they have a column for Infield Hits under the batted ball tab on FanGraphs. Brewers were 1st there too at 147 with PIT (141) and PHI (140) a few behind them. Going back to 2014 those 147 Infield Hits rank 13th out of 300 individual team seasons in the last decade.

Believe Wande Torres had some reports of velo in the 95 MPH range this year coming back after surgery.

DRS turns out more extreme results for sure. They had TOR 1st with +106 and the White Sox last with -88. StatCast's FRV also had TOR in 1st and the White Sox in last, but their spread was only from +45 on the top to -57 on the bottom. Brewers were 5th here at +29. Based on how much stock the Brewers have been putting in defense for the last almost a decade now my best guess is their internal model spits out results closer to DRS than to FRV.

With 28 of the 30 teams victory totals in the books for the year I thought I would update the tallies here. Format is...TEAM (24 proj. wins | 24 actual wins | difference) with the fourth column representing the updated 2016-24 full season cumulative difference... MIL (80 | 93 | +13 | +71) CLE (80 | 92 | +12 | +24) KCR (76 | 86 | +10 | -37) SDP (83 | 93 | +10 | -31) PHI (85 | 95 | +10 | +17) NYY (87 | 94 | +7 | +27) BAL (84 | 91 | +7 | +9) DET (79 | 86 | +7 | -43) WAS (65 | 71 | +6 | -19) ARI (84 | 89 | +5 | +12) LAD (94 | 98 | +4 | +54) BOS (79 | 81 | +2 | +7) CHC (82 | 83 | +1 | -4) SEA (85 | 85 | 0 | +36) STL (83 | 83 | 0 | +9) COL (62 | 61 | -1 | +15) OAK (71 | 69 | -2 | -9) PIT (78 | 76 | -2 | -14) CIN (79 | 77 | -2 | -10) HOU (91 | 88 | -3 | +38) MIN (85 | 82 | -3 | -16) SFG (83 | 80 | -3 | -9) TEX (82 | 78 | -4 | -4) TBR (85 | 80 | -5 | +38) TOR (84 | 74 | -10 | -30) LAA (78 | 63 | -15 | -67) MIA (81 | 62 | -19 | -40) CHW (66 | 41 | -25 | -50)

For a more team-centric view, here are a few categories where the Brewers excelled... Walk Percentage 01. NYY 10.8 % 02. MIL 9.7% 03. LAD 9.6% Stolen Bases 01. WAS 223 02. MIL 217 03. CIN 207 Baserunning 01. MIL +19.8 runs 02. CIN +15.7 runs 03. ARI +12.5 runs Defensive Runs Saved 01. TOR 106 02. CLE 81 03. MIL 64 PAs w/ RISP 01. ARI 1,741 02. MIL 1,726 03. LAD 1,700 OPS w/ RISP 01. ARI .852 02. MIL .809 03. NYY .809 Runs Scored w/ 2 Outs 01. MIL 332 02. LAD 325 03. ARI 321 Park/League Adjusted ERA- 01. ATL 84 02. MIL 88 93. KCR 89 ERA / FIP differential 01. MIL -0.54 02. CLE -0.38 03. NYY -0.30 Bullpen WPA 01. CLE +15.62 02. MIL +14.25 03. ATL +7.75 Left on Base Percentage 01. MIL 76.7% 02. CLE 75.7% 03. HOU 75.2%

NEW PITCHERS (+12.1 rWAR) Tobias Myers 24 (138.0 IP | 73 ERA- | 3.5 rWAR) Bryan Hudson 24 (62.1 IP | 42 ERA- | 2.7 rWAR) Aaron Civale 24 (74.0 IP | 85 ERA- | 1.6 rWAR) Jared Koenig 24 (62.0 IP | 60 ERA- | 1.4 rWAR) Robert Gasser 24 (28.0 IP | 62 ERA- | 0.9 rWAR) Joe Ross 24 (74.0 IP | 91 ERA- | 0.7 rWAR) Enoli Paredes 24 (20.2 IP | 42 ERA- | 0.7 rWAR) Jakob Junis 24 (26.0 IP | 59 ERA- | 0.6 rWAR) Frankie Montas 24 (57.1 IP | 110 ERA- | 0.3 rWAR) DL Hall 24 (42.0 IP | 122 ERA- | 0.0 rWAR) Dallas Keuchel 24 (16.2 IP | 131 ERA- | 0.0 rWAR) Nick Mears 24 (12.1 IP | 177 ERA- | -0.3 rWAR) NEW POSITIONALS (+7.2 WAR) Jackson Chourio 24 (573 PAs | 117 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR) Joey Ortiz 24 (511 PAs | 104 wRC+ | 3.1 WAR) Gary Sanchez 24 (280 PAs | 96 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR) Eric Haase 24 (69 PAs | 125 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR) Rhys Hoskins 24 (517 PAs | 100 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR) Oliver Dunn 24 (104 PAs | 68 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR) Jake Bauers 24 (346 PAs | 87 wRC+ | 0.0 WAR) Black/Collins/Capra/Hicklen 24 (90 PAs | bad wRC+ | -0.6 WAR)

HOLDOVER PITCHERS (-7.4 rWAR) Trevor Megill (+0.9 rWAR) 23 (34.2 IP | 83 ERA- | 0.4 rWAR) 24 (46.1 IP | 66 ERA- | 1.3 rWAR) Colin Rea (+0.7 rWAR) 23 (124.2 IP | 104 ERA- | 1.3 rWAR) 24 (167.2 IP | 104 ERA- | 2.0 rWAR) Freddy Peralta (+0.6 rWAR) 23 (165.2 IP | 88 ERA- | 2.9 rWAR) 24 (173.2 IP | 89 ERA- | 3.5 rWAR) Aaron Ashby (+0.4 rWAR) 23 (DID NOT PITCH DUE TO INJURY) 24 (28.1 IP | 69 ERA- | 0.4 rWAR) Bryse Wilson (-0.3 rWAR) 23 (76.2 IP | 59 ERA- | 1.3 rWAR) 24 (104.2 IP | 98 ERA- 1.0 rWAR) Elvis Peguero (-0.4 rWAR) 23 (61.1 IP | 77 ERA- | 1.0 rWAR) 24 (51.1 IP | 72 ERA- | 0.6 rWAR) Joel Payamps (-0.8 rWAR) 23 (70.2 IP | 58 ERA- | 1.8 rWAR) 24 (59.0 IP | 74 ERA- | 1.0 rWAR) Abner Uribe (-1.3 rWAR) 23 (30.2 IP | 40 ERA- | 0.9 rWAR) 24 (14.1 IP | 167 ERA- | -0.4 rWAR) Devin Williams (-1.5 rWAR) 23 (58.2 IP | 35 ERA- | 2.9 rWAR) 24 (21.2 IP | 30 ERA- | 1.4 rWAR) Hoby Milner (-2.3 rWAR) 23 (64.1 IP | 42 ERA- | 1.9 rWAR) 24 (64.2 IP | 115 ERA- | -0.4 rWAR) Wade Miley (-3.4 rWAR) 23 (120.1 IP | 79 ERA- | 3.3 rWAR) 24 (7.0 IP | 156 ERA- | -0.1 rWAR) HOLDOVER POSITIONALS (+2.3 WAR) Brice Turang (+2.7 WAR) 23 (448 PAs | 61 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR) 24 (619 PAs | 87 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR) Garrett Mitchell (+1.5 WAR) 23 (73 PAs | 103 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR) 24 (224 PAs | 126 wRC+ | 1.8 WAR) Willy Adames (+1.4 WAR) 23 (638 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 3.3 WAR) 24 (688 PAs | 119 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR) Blake Perkins (+0.6 WAR) 23 (168 PAs | 89 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR) 24 (434 PAs | 83 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR) Sal Frelick (+0.5 WAR) 23 (223 PAs | 93 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR) 24 (524 PAs | 86 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR) William Contreras (-0.3 WAR) 23: (611 PAs | 125 wRC+ | 5.7 WAR) 24: (679 PAs | 131 wRC+ | 5.4 WAR) Andruw Monasterio (-0.7 WAR) 23 (315 PAs | 88 wRC+ | 0.5 WAR) 24 (142 PAs | 68 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR) Christian Yelich (-0.8 WAR) 23 (632 PAs | 122 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR) 24 (315 PAs | 153 wRC+ | 3.0 WAR) Owen Miller (-1.1 WAR) 23 (314 PAs | 81 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR) 24 (27 PAs | 8 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR) Joey Wiemer (-1.5 WAR) 23 (410 PAs | 75 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR) 24 (27 PAs | -6 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR)

DEPARTING PITCHERS (6.0 rWAR lost) Corbin Burnes 23 (193.2 IP | 78 ERA- | 4.8 rWAR) Brandon Woodruff 23 (67.0 IP | 52 ERA- | 2.8 rWAR) Adrian Houser 23 (111.1 IP | 94 ERA- | 1.4 rWAR) Julio Teheran 23 (71.1 IP | 101 ERA- | 0.8 rWAR) Peter Strzelecki 23 (35.2 IP | 104 ERA- | 0.1 rWAR) Andrew Chafin 23 (17.0 IP | 133 ERA- | -0.4 rWAR) Eric Lauer 23 (46.2 IP | 150 ERA- | -0.8 rWAR) Everybody Else 23 (about a 100 ugly IP | -2.7 rWAR) DEPARTING POSTIONALS (0.9 WAR lost) Victor Caratini 23 (226 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR) Tyrone Taylor 23 (243 PAs | 88 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR) Mark Canha 23 (204 PAs | 120 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR) Carlos Santana 23 (226 PAs | 107 wRC+ | 0.7 WAR) Brian Anderson 23 (361 PAs | 86 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR) Mike Brosseau 23 (78 PAs | 74 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR) Luke Voit 23 (74 PAs | 53 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR) Rowdy Tellez 23 (351 PAs | 78 wRC+ | -0.7 WAR) Jesse Winker 23 (197 PAs | 66 wRC+ | -0.8 WAR) Dnldsn/Urias/Tapia/Jon/Ruf/Toro 23 (281 PAs | bad wRC+ | -0.8 WAR)