Brewers acquire Daniel Norris from Tigers

[Eye Black]

Reese Olson seems like a steep price to pay for Norris…

 

I've seen several people say this.

 

Olson hasn't shown much other than he walks a lot of guys.

 

Am I missing something with him?

Below is the FanGraphs write-up on Olson from last month. They ranked him the #6 prospect in the Brewers system, and since he’s only 21 they pointed out if he was in this past year’s draft they think he would’ve been as high as a mid-first round talent.

 

[umphrey]

Reese Olson seems like a steep price to pay for Norris…

 

I've seen several people say this.

 

Olson hasn't shown much other than he walks a lot of guys.

 

Am I missing something with him?

Has been trending in the right direction with a good start to the year, a velo bump up to 97 and with 3-4 pitches looks likely to stick as a starter. Though had a few poor starts in 2nd half of 2021.

[Outlander]

Got one right for once. Do think it helps the bullpen and a better option than Milner even though his results have not been good.

 

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[TURBO]

It's a meh move, but I'm not really happy about giving up Olson for him... To me, this is a "thumbs down" move based on what we gave up.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Got one right for once. Do think it helps the bullpen and a better option than Milner even though his results have not been good.

 

viewtopic.php?p=1364175#p1364175

 

Without a doubt. Velo is at least 3-4 mph higher than Milner on the FB, and Norris's slider is much better than any of Milner's secondary stuff. Plus he's not a junkballing side-armer. I hate junk-balling sidearmers.

[SRB]

Below is the FanGraphs write-up on Olson from last month. They ranked him the #6 prospect in the Brewers system, and since he’s only 21 they pointed out if he was in this past year’s draft they think he would’ve been as high as a mid-first round talent.

 

By contrast, he didn't even make the top 30 on MLB.com in our relatively weak system. So a wide range of opinions (though Fangraphs seems like the outlier...) and I feel confident guessing on which end of that Stearns and company fall.

 

Norris is a former elite prospect, is somehow still only 28, has a 3.54 xFIP this season, and can be relied on to eat a lot of innings without getting fatigued. If you want a candidate for this year's Drew Pomeranz, this is it.

[Simba2020]

As a former 13th round pick who has a career 4.50ish ERA and 1.50ish WHIP in the minors, only marginally better in 2021, and is still in A ball, is not somebody I'm going to lose any sleep over.

[brooks_quichenick]

 

“Similarly: Fascinated to see what the Brewers pitching machine does with Daniel Norris, who is throwing harder after years of injuries, and already has elite changeup drop. Milwaukee knows a little about changeups.”

[Eye Black]

As a former 13th round pick who has a career 4.50ish ERA and 1.50ish WHIP in the minors, only marginally better in 2021, and is still in A ball, is not somebody I'm going to lose any sleep over.

The 13th round thing is misleading. The Brewers spent big ($440,000) to sign Olson in the 2018 draft, and he’s still very young with good velocity. By comparison, Drew Rasmussen was a 6th rounder and signed for only $135k (yes, he had less leverage as a college arm). Olson was the 5th highest paid Brewers draft pick in 2018 behind only Turang, Gray, Bello, and Ashby.

 

I am not going to lose sleep over it, and I am fine with the trade, but it’s worth understanding that developing into a very good major league pitcher is still well within the range of outcomes for Reese Olson.

[endaround]

Is his Fangraphs page correct that Olsen needed to added to 40 man this year or face the Rule 5 draft? If that is the case, the Brewers easily may not have wanted to tie a 40 man spot on guy not ready but also could see another team stashing a guy who can hit 97 in the bullpen all year. So he may have been available because of that.

[Eye Black]

Is his Fangraphs page correct that Olsen needed to added to 40 man this year or face the Rule 5 draft? If that is the case, the Brewers easily may not have wanted to tie a 40 man spot on guy not ready but also could see another team stashing a guy who can hit 97 in the bullpen all year. So he may have been available because of that.

Yes, he was Rule 5 eligible this offseason which is one reason he’s a bit more expendable.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Is his Fangraphs page correct that Olsen needed to added to 40 man this year or face the Rule 5 draft? If that is the case, the Brewers easily may not have wanted to tie a 40 man spot on guy not ready but also could see another team stashing a guy who can hit 97 in the bullpen all year. So he may have been available because of that.

 

I believe that's very much the case with Olson...and I can see plenty of room on the Tigers' 40 man roster for him. Hell, the Tigers might actually just throw him in their own pen in Detroit next year.

 

Looking at it that way, the Brewers traded away a promising arm they probably had little chance of retaining through this offseason because of the rule 5 draft issue for someone that bolsters their MLB pen. Falls right in line with some of the other recent deadline trades involving Brewer pitching prospects (Ortiz, Medeiros, etc).

Edited July 30, 2021 by Fear The Chorizo

[PinaMadness]

We have our loogy!!!

[StearnsFTW]

Meh. Not worried about Olson.

 

Not a huge fan of this, but he seems like he'll help some.

 

Need another pen arm.

 

Raisel Iglesias please.

[LouisEly]

Is his Fangraphs page correct that Olsen needed to added to 40 man this year or face the Rule 5 draft? If that is the case, the Brewers easily may not have wanted to tie a 40 man spot on guy not ready but also could see another team stashing a guy who can hit 97 in the bullpen all year. So he may have been available because of that.

No, it's not correct. His birthday is 7/31/99 and he signed on 7/2/18, so he was only 18 when he signed. If a player signs when 18 or younger, they aren't eligible for the Rule 5 draft until after their 5th pro season which would be after the 2022 season.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I'm not even sure that the value is off, but I wish that a comparable value hitter would have been dealt instead. We don't have nearly the same depth of pitching prospects in the lower levels of the minors as we have hitting prospects. Olson was one of the guys that I was kind of hoping wouldn't get dealt unless it was slam dunk value for that reason.

 

And yes, I thought this year's high school Rule 5 group was the Lutz, Lazar, Bullock group with Olson, Turang, Gray, Bello, etc. after next year.

[RollieTime]

Not a fan of Norris at all. Not high on Olson, but I feel like we could have done better.

[NievesNoNO]

Meh, a lefty reliever that can generate a decent GB%, who has started in the past- so maybe an handle multiple innings. Seems exactly like what we should expect.

 

Hopefully they have something a bit more inspiring in mind in the next 20 min

[Guest]

I honestly thought the team was already good enough that anyone we traded for had to at least be an obvious improvement for the trade to be worth it. I don't see it here. Great chance they see something I don't though as I'm just a guy and they get paid $$$$ to make these decisions.

 

This uninformed fan isn't all that excited though.

[djoctagone]

daniel norris appears to one one minor league option remaining, and has never been outrighted to the minor leagues. he does have enough major league service time to refuse an optional assignment.

[MadScientist]

I wonder if they got Norris to use in modified loogy situations, like a lefty up with two outs, when they don't want to burn Suter.

[KeithStone53151]

I wonder if they got Norris to use in modified loogy situations, like a lefty up with two outs, when they don't want to burn Suter.

 

Suter isn't specifically good against lefties anyways...while Norris is exactly that.

[Matt Breen]

Back in the prospect days, I was a big fan of Norris. Thought he could be a really good starter. I saw a few games of his, and when he was on, he looked great. Obviously, things haven't panned out of the guy. He's had some injuries, and not to mention thyroid cancer a few years.

 

He looked pretty good last year - strictly pitching out of the pen. This year's numbers haven't been good - but as noted, his FIP is decent - so he's probably had some bad luck.

[wntrtxn21]

Drew Pomeranz vibes from this move...

 

Except Pomeranz sucked as a starter and then improved when he went to the pen.

 

Norris sucked in the bullpen and we are...keeping him in the bullpen.

 

Except Norris hasn't really sucked in the bullpen.

 

His ERA- of 104 out of the pen is slightly below average, but his FIP- of 75 & xFIP- of 76 (which hold much more predictive power over a sample of only 62 IP than ERA does) place him within the top 20-35 relievers in MLB over the last two years.

 

Any good number for Norris comes from facing LH. CC has to hope he can severly limit Norris' exposure to RH batters. He sucks against RH (.333/.412/.520). Nobody in baseball would ever confuse Norris with being anything but a low level reliever. He's better than Perdomo or Milner, so it is a plus for the team.

[PeaveyFury]

Any good number for Norris comes from facing LH. CC has to hope he can severly limit Norris' exposure to RH batters. He sucks against RH (.333/.412/.520). Nobody in baseball would ever confuse Norris with being anything but a low level reliever. He's better than Perdomo or Milner, so it is a plus for the team.

 

Why are we solely citing 2021 numbers?