2022 Brewers Offense

[BruisedCrew]

15 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yes, a lot of advanced stats actually do take external factors like the quality of opposition into account. You should try studying them. Looking solely at one measure, like runs per game, to assess the overall quality of a team's offense is so extraordinarily flawed I can't believe I'm having to debate it. And you can't just eliminate the American League from your analysis either, considering the whole interleague play thing. But yes, if you look at things exactly the way you are, you can make the argument that the Brewers offense is below average. 

Whether I include the American League or not, the Brewers have still scored fewer runs per game than all of the teams that they are competing with for playoff positions. 

If you don’t want to debate with someone whose opinions are extraordinarily flawed because he doesn’t share your devotion to the intricacies of advanced statistics, then don’t. But, it seems to me that whether you use runs per game or wRC+, or look at all of MLB or just the NL, the conclusion is the same. The Brewers offense is generally average and generally less productive than other NL playoff contenders. 

You said that some advanced statistics consider quality of opposition, but didn’t answer my question about whether wRC does. Do you know the answer?

While we’re on the subject, after tonight’s game the Brewers have scored 368 runs, or 4.65 per game. Scoring 4 games worth of runs in one game does bump up the average, but unfortunately only counts for one win. 210 of these runs have come in the 33 games against the Reds, Nats, Pirates, and Cubs, an average of 6.36 per game. In the other 46 games they have scored 158 runs, or an average of 3.43 per game. That’s a pretty exceptional spread; make of it what you want.
 

[BruisedCrew]

47 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

I just don't understand where this conversation is going at this point. Seems like everyone's just defending against a perceived extreme view point that I don't think anyone actually believes in. I think everyone agrees that this Brewers team is a good team, but is faulted when it comes to its offense. That said, the offense isn't awful, it's about league average and has the ability to get hot for periods of time. It'd be great to improve the offense somehow, but we may not have the resources to make a major splash before the trade deadline. So realistically our best hope may be in relying on our elite pitching and the offense getting on a hot streak at the right time. If MA/DA can obtain a nice bat or two to compliment the offense this month I'm sure everyone would welcome it.

I don’t think my viewpoint is extreme either. Put simply, it is that the Brewers have an offense that is close to NL average that will make it less likely that they will advance in the playoffs (if they get there) than teams that have better offenses and pitching that is as good or better, especially in a playoff setting facing only an opponent’s top pitchers.

[Robocaller]

so all the guys who were saying run differential is hugely important now think our chances (to get into and win games) in the playoffs are much better, right? 

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

so all the guys who were saying run differential is hugely important now think our chances (to get into and win games) in the playoffs are much better, right? 

Run differential at this point in the season is not a great statistic, so those who were looking to run differential to definitively establish our prospects were largely mistaken. Besides, over the last several seasons, the Brewers have consistently outperformed their run differential and X-W/L due to shutdown relievers like Hader and Williams being able to win us tons of 1-2 run games. 

[Robocaller]

34 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Run differential at this point in the season is not a great statistic, so those who were looking to run differential to definitively establish our prospects were largely mistaken. Besides, over the last several seasons, the Brewers have consistently outperformed their run differential and X-W/L due to shutdown relievers like Hader and Williams being able to win us tons of 1-2 run games. 

Brewers have outperformed their pythagorean W/L for the last 7 years. It's what they do, largely because of the back of the bullpen.

 

[nate82]

7 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Brewers have outperformed their pythagorean W/L for the last 7 years. It's what they do, largely because of the back of the bullpen.

 

Sure but it hasn't been by all that much 2019 is the only year where they significantly went over their expected win loss record and that was by 8 more wins.  Every other year they have been with 2-5 wins over or under not counting the 2020 season.  I just don't count that season as it is not enough games to be significant of anything really.  

[Robocaller]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

Sure but it hasn't been by all that much 2019 is the only year where they significantly went over their expected win loss record and that was by 8 more wins.  Every other year they have been with 2-5 wins over or under not counting the 2020 season.  I just don't count that season as it is not enough games to be significant of anything really.  

3 games better right now. Double it for the full season. That's enough for them to be at 90+ wins, even if they don't improve. That gets them in the playoffs (and division champion). Then they just need two SP to dominate.

[brewerfan82]

9 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

I don’t think my viewpoint is extreme either. Put simply, it is that the Brewers have an offense that is close to NL average that will make it less likely that they will advance in the playoffs (if they get there) than teams that have better offenses and pitching that is as good or better, especially in a playoff setting facing only an opponent’s top pitchers.

I think I misworded my intention when I said "Seems like everyone's just defending against a perceived extreme view point that I don't think anyone actually believes in." I meant basically you think Brewcrew82 has a more extreme view of thinking the offense is good than he actually does and he thinks you have a more extreme view of how bad the offense than you actually do. You both seem to agree that the offense is basically league average, but keep throwing stats back and forth arguing if they are slightly above or below that.

The actual disagreement seems to be that you think it's highly unlikely they can do well in the playoffs with this offense whereas he thinks there's a chance the hitters get hot at the right time (which doesn't really contradict eachother's beliefs either). I think you both probably also agree that it'd be ideal to add to the offense.

This "argument" has been going on for quite awhile now and leaking into other threads. My confusion is that I think you both actually believe the same thing, lol. Maybe it's time to shift gears to discussing how we can actually improve the offense? Which prospects are you willing to give up to make a deal work? etc.

[Eye Black]

Every current hitter on the Brewers roster with more than 100 plate appearances has a league average (100) or better wRC+ with the lone exception of Tyrone Taylor. 

[DuWayne Steurer]

The Brewers currently have a team OPS+ of 104.  I know it's fashionable to throw out big games like those that happened last night, but you can't.  Everything that happened is part of the average over almost half a season.  

The 104 OPS+ is the same as the Braves, ahead of the Giants and Padres, and just a nick below the Mets and Phillies.

We'll see where they continue to stand in the coming months. 

 

[pitchleague]

I don’t know why you guys are arguing. Weren’t you watching last night’s game?  Woah solved!!!

[Guest]

To me there are two obvious factors going into this offensive resurgence. First is McCutchen going from one of the worst hitters imaginable to a total beast of the last couple weeks. The second is addition by subtraction when they released Cain on 6/18. Obviously other guys are doing well also, and there will ebbs and flows regardless, but I think if you're looking for a difference between early in the season and the last 3 weeks, that's it.

[brewers888]

7 hours ago, DuWayne Steurer said:

The Brewers currently have a team OPS+ of 104.  I know it's fashionable to throw out big games like those that happened last night, but you can't.  Everything that happened is part of the average over almost half a season.  

The 104 OPS+ is the same as the Braves, ahead of the Giants and Padres, and just a nick below the Mets and Phillies.

We'll see where they continue to stand in the coming months. 

 

Do you really think the Brewers offense is as good as Atlanta and just slightly worse than the NYM or Philadelphia because I think its substantially worse and propped up by facing Pittsburgh, Cincinatti, and the scrubs as often as we do. We should make the playoffs because of the awful division we are in when the Brewers and St Louis are in reality both very mediocre teams.

 

[DuWayne Steurer]

26 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Do you really think the Brewers offense is as good as Atlanta and just slightly worse than the NYM or Philadelphia because I think its substantially worse and propped up by facing Pittsburgh, Cincinatti, and the scrubs as often as we do. We should make the playoffs because of the awful division we are in when the Brewers and St Louis are in reality both very mediocre teams.

 

Like I said, we'll see how it stands in the coming months.

The Brewers are 19-21 against teams over .500

The Braves are 18-20 against teams over .500

The Cards are 17-20 against teams over .500

The Phils are 20 - 23 against teams over .500

The Padres are 19 - 21 against teams over .500

The Gianst are 18 - 18 against teams over .500

The Dodgers are 18 - 14 against teams over .500

Aside from "runs scored", the Brewers are performing more or less as well as their peers against likely playoff contenders, which seems to be the "the offense isn't good enough"'s side of the argument. Aside from the Dodgers, of course, with their 300 million dollar payroll.  The other thing we can see here is that the Dodgers haven't played as many games against "tough" teams as the rest of the field.  

Like I said (again), we'll see where they stand as far as offensive performance more near the end of the year. Every player on the Brewers who's got over 100 plate appearances other than Tyrone Taylor has an OPS+ of 100 or greater. Runs scored is not predictive, it's just a number that tells you what happened. OPS+ or wOBA or other actual mathematical models can do a much better job of predicting future runs scored.

[BruisedCrew]

2 hours ago, DuWayne Steurer said:

Like I said, we'll see how it stands in the coming months.

The Brewers are 19-21 against teams over .500

The Braves are 18-20 against teams over .500

The Cards are 17-20 against teams over .500

The Phils are 20 - 23 against teams over .500

The Padres are 19 - 21 against teams over .500

The Gianst are 18 - 18 against teams over .500

The Dodgers are 18 - 14 against teams over .500

Aside from "runs scored", the Brewers are performing more or less as well as their peers against likely playoff contenders, which seems to be the "the offense isn't good enough"'s side of the argument. Aside from the Dodgers, of course, with their 300 million dollar payroll.  The other thing we can see here is that the Dodgers haven't played as many games against "tough" teams as the rest of the field.  

Like I said (again), we'll see where they stand as far as offensive performance more near the end of the year. Every player on the Brewers who's got over 100 plate appearances other than Tyrone Taylor has an OPS+ of 100 or greater. Runs scored is not predictive, it's just a number that tells you what happened. OPS+ or wOBA or other actual mathematical models can do a much better job of predicting future runs scored.

I'll preface this by agreeing that we will see where we are later in the season. But, I'm going to offer some reactions to the opinion that things like OPS+ are more predictive of what's going to happen in the future than looking at runs scored in the past.

First, the records against teams over .500 (which at this stage of the season are the same as the teams that I am considering playoff contenders) does refute the reaction that the Brewers can't beat good teams. Though that record got a recent boost with the games against the Jays and Rays because before winning the last 4 of those games the Brewers were 15-21 against contending teams. I think those games have had a reassuring effect.

That aside, one of the things I have been watching is not just the Brewers wins and losses against contending teams, but what the offense has done against them. The Journal Sentinel had an article about this about two weeks ago and highlighted how much more productive the Brewers hitting has been against weaker teams. 

I described in a post a couple of weeks ago that I am tracking how many runs the Brewers have scored against contending and noncontending teams. This is very easy to do using data in the Schedule and Results section of Baseball Reference.

I have now updated those numbers for games through yesterday (and including today's Brewers and Cardinals games). They continue to confirm that the Brewers run production is dramatically higher against noncontending teams. In the 40 games against noncontenders, the Brewers are averaging 5.88 runs per game, but in the 40 games against contending teams they are averaging 3.43 runs per game. That's a pretty significant difference of almost 2 1/2 runs per game.

When I first did this I wondered if this kind of discrepancy was typical. At least for the teams I checked (Cardinals, Dodgers, and Giants) it is not. The Cardinals numbers are 5.19 vs non contenders and 4.44 vs contenders, a difference of 0.75 runs. For the Dodgers those numbers are 5.54 amd 4.54 (a difference of 1 run). I haven't updated the Giants numbers but when I looked at them a month ago they were actually scoring slightly more against better teams.

So. the question or concern that I continue to have is whether the Brewers offensive numbers have been propped up by the high number of games against the noncontending teams that allow the most runs (Reds, Nats, Pirates, Cubs) and that they will have far fewer games against those teams in the second half than they have had in the first half. As I mentioned in an earlier post, by the end of next weekend the Brewers will have played 41 of their 87 games against those 4 teams. They will only have 22 games against those teams in the second half plus 12 against the Rockies and Dbacks (who are not quite as generous as those bottom NL Central teams).

You made the statement that things like OPS+ are more predictive of future scoring than past runs scored. I asked the question yesterday, and didn't receive an answer, whether a stat like OPS+ includes a factor based on competition. But, if it doesn't, wouldn't it be fair to expect that as competition gets tougher, the OPS+ of the players and the run production for the team might come down too? I understand that we can't arbitrarily remove the extraordinarily high scoring games like the 18 and 19 run games the Brewers have had against the Reds and Pirates. But, for predictive purposes I question how much value those games have toward how a team might be expected to perform in a playoff setting against the best pitchers on the best teams.

We're not going to resolve this now, but it will be interesting to follow going forward.

[sveumrules]

BPro's Deserved Runs Created does include a quality of opposition factor. By that measure (DC RS column) the Brewers project as the 6th best offense in the NL, 10th best in MLB...

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

[sveumrules]

Also, now that we're past the halfway point (& with run differential coming up a couple two tree times in the thread) it seems like as good a time as any to link this Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs article from before the Rays hired him about how best to predict the season's second half using actual W%, Pythagorean W% and/or projected W%...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-best-to-predict-the-seasons-second-half/

 

I was able to combine all three variables into a best fit. It yields an R2 of 0.39. This is, again, in an effort to predict second-half winning percentage. The formula settles on the following weights:

• First-half winning percentage: 0.14
• First-half Pythagorean winning percentage: 0.12
• Second-half projected winning percentage: 0.75

Compared to first-half winning percentage, the second-half projection is almost six times more important. Compared to first-half Pythagorean winning percentage, the second-half projection is more than six times more important.

 

[Outlander]

It on BrewCrewBall but Jack Stern has an article on the Brewers offense that they are worse than other teams when facing quality teams.

From https://www.brewcrewball.com/2022/7/8/23199831/the-brewers-have-the-worst-above-average-offense-in-baseball

The Brewers are one of three teams on the list who have performed over 100 points better in OPS against below-average teams, and they have a 36-point lead over the Marlins, who have a 115-point difference.

Not only do the Brewers have the widest discrepancy in their offensive performance based on the quality of their opponent, but they also have the worst OPS on the list against .500-or-better teams.

It does also point out what many have said about the pitching being key to the Brewers winning and not necessarily relying on the offense to be top tier.

The silver lining is that the Brewers do not have to do much at the plate to beat good teams so long as their run prevention unit continues to do the heavy lifting. A high-quality lineup was never part of the plan for this year’s team. The offense needs to be better, but not by much.

[monty57]

I think that trying to extrapolate data off of a subset of 40 "vs .500 or better" games is not going to be very predictive. Besides the normal "baseball being baseball," and "over a short series any team can beat any other team," there are a lot of variables in a small sample size. For example, who was injured during those games? We've had a lot of injuries this year, including times where it seemed most of our offense was down. Did this happen to occur when we faced a good team, or when we faced a bad team. Was this similar or different to what happened when another "playoff hopeful" faced a ".500 or better team?"

What pitchers did we face? Of course teams are going to score less against a great pitcher than they are against a "bum." If we faced the other team's top of the rotation, but another "playoff hopeful" team faced the bottom of the rotation, it would make sense that we'd score less runs.

Was someone slumping or was someone on a "hot streak"? As noted with McCutchen, he was horrible and then had a great month. Streaks and slumps are part of baseball. Over a small sample, it can make a player or a team look great, or it can make them look terrible. Last year, we slumped as a team at the end of the season, leading to a quick exit from the playoffs. Hope isn't a good strategy, but over a short series, we really have to hope that our guys are hot rather than cold when the playoffs come around this year.

There are a lot of things that could be going on, so bottom line is that it's probably not a good idea to base any judgement off of a small sample set. This year's Brewers are built on pitching. We're over budget and didn't have the resources to "just go grab a big bat." We'll see if great pitching and an "average-ish" offense is enough to win it all. It should at least be enough to get us into the playoffs, which is a great start, because one guarantee is that if you don't make the playoffs you won't win the World Series.

[brewers888]

I want to hear a good explanation why Hiura who has been this teams best hitter this season was sent to AAA. 

[Robocaller]

15 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

I want to hear a good explanation why Hiura who has been this teams best hitter this season was sent to AAA. 

Idiocy.

[tmwiese55]

Yea I popped on today after seeing that news but was surprised to see no discussion of it, unless it was in the game thread.   It makes no sense, he's finally hitting OK. And OK is better than everyone else on the team.  He's added being able to passably play LF.   If I recalled correctly when the catcher situation happened preseason I thought Severino (possibly caratini too) had options so could be sent down.  My memory could be off, but 3 catchers just seems weird, especially with a near every 1B on the team. 

I also thought if Yeli is hurt why not pop him on the DL to finish to the break, he'd be eligible to come back after.   There would be the roster spot they need.    

Only thing I could think of, without checking minors schedule, would be they want to send him down now and let him play every day through the break then bring him back afterwards.  Like I said, I didn't check the schedule and if their ASB is now too. If it is then this doesn't make sense. 

[The stache]

The problem with using something like average runs per game is that, over a short period of time, it can be skewed by a big game or two.

If I look at Corbin Burnes' average run support in 2022 (expressed as runs scored by the Brewers per 9 innings pitched), I see a mark of 4.65, which would be very good. 

The problem is that in two of Burnes' starts, Milwaukee scored 10 and 19 runs. That 4.65 RPG isn't an accurate reflection of what the Brewers typically provide for him in the way of offensive scoring. 

In seven of his nineteen starts, the Brewers have scored 0 runs (twice), 1 run (once) and 2 runs (four times). 

Burnes is 7-4, and should have 10 wins or more. In two starts, he threw 7 and 6.2 innings, giving up not a single earned run (or unearned), and got a no decision. The Brewers lost both games. 

In another, Burnes gave up 1 earned run over 6 innings, and lost, as the Brewers again got shutout. 

In yet another, he gave up 1 earned run (1 in total) over 7 innings pitched, and got a no decision.

I know this is focusing on a pitcher, and may be diverging from the original premise, but it's done in an effort to show how a bit more study is necessary than simply looking at runs scored per game. The Brewer offense can look great for an extended period of time. It clearly has some good power. But there is a whole lot of room for improvement. 

Being ninth in the National League in OBP, at .315, doesn't help. But Christian Yelich, since being moved to the leadoff spot (30 games), is hitting .296 with a .396 OBP.

That's outstanding. 

If he can continue getting on base, and OPSing .800+, and stealing the occasional base, it will help the offense in the long run. 

His back and knee able, I'd like to see him stealing more bases. That's one thing he's been ridiculously good at since arriving in Milwaukee, and continues to excel at. He's stolen 78 bases in 89 tries dating back to 2018. That's an absurd 87.6% success rate.

Anyhow, I'm rambling a bit. It's good to be back, so I'm a bit more chatty than usual. 

 

[DR28]

Now that we have a legit leadoff, really hope in 23 we dont bring back Kolten, move Urias to 2B and finally find a 3B.

[Jim French Stepstool]

6 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

 

I also thought if Yeli is hurt why not pop him on the DL to finish to the break, he'd be eligible to come back after.   There would be the roster spot they need.    

 

My best guess is, unless there's a miracle and the team actually meant that he's REALLY day-to-day, Yelich will soon be IL'd and replaced by 1) Taylor; if he's ready to come back (can't help but think that's doubtful) or 2) Hiura. That takes Yelich 2 or 3 days past the ASG, thereby securing our mandatory "He can use a couple more days" mantra.