Juan Soto

[wibadgers23]

9 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

This is probably the closest offer from a value perspective that I've seen so far. I actually think the Nationals would seriously consider this offer. We'd create a hole in the infield but we could plug that with another move. The nationals could very well take young major leaguers with 4+ years of team control as they have $ to try and buy their way back into contention.

Yeah the big problem here is we are taking on some serious salary and I don’t see Mark A being okay with that.

[Jopal78]

40 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

This is probably the closest offer from a value perspective that I've seen so far. I actually think the Nationals would seriously consider this offer. We'd create a hole in the infield but we could plug that with another move. The nationals could very well take young major leaguers with 4+ years of team control as they have $ to try and buy their way back into contention.

The Nationals have three big salaries (Corbin, Strasburg and Soto) and a ton of players on cut-rate one year deals. In other words, they're in essence a small market team, and the team is going up for sale. They are not "buying their way" into anything. 

I also don't see the Nationals having much interest in Hiura or Urias, for a couple of reasons. 

First and foremost, Hiura isn't amongst the Brewers 26 best players and in all likelihood is on his way to getting non-tendered after the season. (In fact, look at what the Pirates got for Dan Vogelbach--a 26 year old rookie relief pitcher, currently assigned to Pittsburgh's AAA-- and it  gives you a fair indicator of what Hiura's value would be as a similar player who is a defensive liability and has similar career stats). Urias is a light hitting utility infielder who is also about to triple his earnings when he enters arbitration this winter. 

Secondly, Nationals are the worst team in the NL, and their minor league system is devoid of impact talent close to major league ready. They are likely 3 or more seasons away from being competitive in their Division, I don't see them having much interest in a couple of mediocre infielders from the Brewers who are entering arbitration. 

I don't think the Brewers have the quality of minor league talent to pull this kind of a deal off, but if they did it likely would be all minor leaguers and not trading from their major league roster, and it would probably need to be 4 or 5 out of their Top 10 prospects. 

[jw5511986]

We're more than Soto away from the WS, I'd pass because the asking price is (correctly) way too high. I don't think it's impossible that Chourio tracks a Soto like path to the bigs so I'm not trying to trade him at the start of the path for somewhere nearer the end of club control.

[Jopal78]

29 minutes ago, jw5511986 said:

We're more than Soto away from the WS, I'd pass because the asking price is (correctly) way too high. I don't think it's impossible that Chourio tracks a Soto like path to the bigs so I'm not trying to trade him at the start of the path for somewhere nearer the end of club control.

Soto only played 122 games in the minor leagues and was in the majors for good at 19 years old, so Jackson has some catching up to do! Seriously though, Chourio could be a fantastic hitter, or he could be nothing, nobody really knows. On the other hand Soto already is a fantastic player.

With these comments "we're more than one hitter away from being a serious contender", keep in mind the Brewers success is largely driven by pitching, and they're  in first place with the 5th best record in their league. If the pitching holds, any addition to the lineup is going to make them a better club and add some balance. They will never have the talent of the Dodgers, nobody does, but the gap between the Brewers and Mets or Braves is Soto shaped. 

[jw5511986]

31 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Soto only played 122 games in the minor leagues and was in the majors for good at 19 years old, so Jackson has some catching up to do! Seriously though, Chourio could be a fantastic hitter, or he could be nothing, nobody really knows. On the other hand Soto already is a fantastic player.

With these comments "we're more than one hitter away from being a serious contender", keep in mind the Brewers success is largely driven by pitching, and they're  in first place with the 5th best record in their league. If the pitching holds, any addition to the lineup is going to make them a better club and add some balance. They will never have the talent of the Dodgers, nobody does, but the gap between the Brewers and Mets or Braves is Soto shaped. 

What does if the pitching holds really mean though when our closer has spent the last month getting beat up and multiple starters have battled injuries? I'm all for optimism but we're more than just one hitter away on current form. 

I will freely admit that a large part of my hesitancy is around the fact that I feel like Chourio is the best prospect we've had in my lifetime (35 years). I don't believe that if we traded him for Soto and then traded Soto in a few years that we'd get anything even close to like value back for what would, at that point, be a rental.

[nate82]

If the Cardinals wanted to make a trade for Soto I think it would look something like this:

Cardinals:

Soto and Corbin

Nationals:

Walker, Gorman, Liberatore and Yepez

I believe that gets the Nationals everything they want if they want to include Corbin in the deal.  

[Jopal78]

34 minutes ago, jw5511986 said:

What does if the pitching holds really mean though when our closer has spent the last month getting beat up and multiple starters have battled injuries? I'm all for optimism but we're more than just one hitter away on current form. 

I will freely admit that a large part of my hesitancy is around the fact that I feel like Chourio is the best prospect we've had in my lifetime (35 years). I don't believe that if we traded him for Soto and then traded Soto in a few years that we'd get anything even close to like value back for what would, at that point, be a rental.

 Nobody thought the Nationals would win the WS in 2019, and not many picked the Braves to get by the Brewers in 2021 let alone win it all, even the Milwaukee Brewers pushed the mighty Dodgers to the brink in 2018. It's getting to the playoffs and then playing well during the post-season that wins titles, not necessarily having the most talent. 

I assume your being facetious about the pitching. Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff are as good as they come in terms of starters and they've pitched like it this year when healthy. Ashby and Lauer have been outstanding at times. Williams, Milner have been terrific. Hader stumbled into the break but allowed 17 baserunners during the first 3 months of the season. 

If you're really 35 you were alive when the Brewers had Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Yovanni Gallardo and  Ryan Braun All Star players who had ten plus season major league careers.  But look no further than other Top 50 prospects the Brewers had in the last 17 years and you'll see the that despite being a well regarded prospect it doesn't necessarily indicate the player will turn out to be a great major leaguer: Jose Capellan (#18 in '05), Mark Rogers (#40 in '06), Alcides Escobar (#8 in '09), Mat Gamel (#23 in '09), Brett Lawrie (#26 in '11), Orlando Arcia (#6 in '16) Lewis Brinson (#18 in '17).

Like I said, its fun to muse about the Brewers acquiring Soto but I don't think it will happen. If I were in there shoes though I wouldn't miss the opportunity to acquire a generational talent for multiple seasons due to affinity for some minor league players multiple seasons away from the major leagues. 

[monty57]

12 hours ago, endaround said:

Soto has something like $175 million in excess value.  Fangraphs has the entire Brewer minor league system valued at $158 million,  so this would really be selling the farm. Soto is worth 3 FV50 and higher prospects; the Brewers have one. 

Exactly. That's why I brought up that they might have to add Corbin just to bring Soto's value down far enough that there is a team out there that they can make a trade with.

Looking at MLB.com's Top 100:

• The Mets have Francisco Alvarez (#2), Brett Baty (#20), and Ronny Mauricio (#52) and the richest owner in the league who seems to be trying to break spending records.
• The Orioles have three Top 50 guys, but they're not trading for Soto
• Detroit could possibly form a deal around Riley Greene and Jackson Jobe, but they're not going to trade for Soto
• Arizona has two Top 50 + #73, but they're not trading for Soto
• The Blue Jays have Gabriel Moreno (#6), Orelvis Martinez (#36), Ricky Tiedemann (#63), and Jordan Groshans (#84). Plus, they have young talent at the MLB level.
• St Louis has Jordan Walker (#7), Matthew Liberatore (#45), Ivan Herrera (#82), Masyn Winn (#89), Gordon Graceffo (#100) plus they have two young OFs at the MLB level.
• The Yankees have Anthony Volpe (#8), Oswald Peraza (#38), Jasson Dominguez (#39), Austin Wells (#71), and Ken Waldichuk (#72) plus they won't hesitate to spend money.
• San Fran has Marco Luciano (#9), Kyle Harrison (#25), and Luis Matos (#65)
• The Dodgers have Diego Cartaya (#13), Bobby Miller (#26), Michael Busch (#42), Andy Pages (#47), Miguel Vargas (#70), Ryan Pepiot (#75), and the biggest TV deal in baseball, so money isn't a concern.
• Boston has Marcelo Mayer (#10), Triston Casas (#14), Brayan Bello (#44), Nick Yorke (#64)
• Cleveland has a hoard of Top 100 guys, but they probably aren't trading for Soto.
• Marlins have three Top 50 guys, but aren't trading for Soto
• Texas has Jack Leiter (#16), Josh Jung (#30), Ezequiel Duran (#56), Juistin Foscue (#61), Cole Winn (#79), and Owen White (#93)
• Pittsburgh has five Top 50 guys (!!) but aren't going to be trading for Soto.
• Seattle only has one Top 50 (Noelvi Marte #19) and two other Top 100 guys, so unless they'd trade Julio, they may be out.
• The Rockies have Zac Veen (#22) and three other Top 100 guys, but probably aren't trading for Soto.
• After all the trades and promotions, San Diego's system is finally thinning out, with Robert Hassell III (#23) and two other Top 100 guys. 
• Cincy has two Top 50 guys and two other Top 100 guys, but they won't be trading for Soto.
• The Cubs have one Top 50 guy and three other Top 100 guys, but won't be trading for Soto.
• The A's have two Top 50 guys and one other Top 100, but won't be trading for Soto.
• The Rays have one Top 50 guy, and two others in the Top 100, and don't have the money to trade for Soto.

 

And then, after all of those teams, the Brewers have Chourio (#37), Frelick (#48), and Wiemer (#62) without many young MLB players nor the money to afford Soto.

There are a lot of teams who could offer the Nationals a lot more than the Brewers could offer, whether or not that included picking up Corbin's contract. I'd guess that he'll end up on one of the Mets, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, or Rangers.

[brewerfan82]

23 minutes ago, jw5511986 said:

What does if the pitching holds really mean though when our closer has spent the last month getting beat up and multiple starters have battled injuries? I'm all for optimism but we're more than just one hitter away on current form. 

Even with Hader's slump and all the injuries, we have the 4th best xFIP in the majors. I think we're starting to take for granted just how good this pitching staff is and has been. I understand the hesitancy to part with prospects that have extremely high ceilings and the potential financial flexibility they would allow for if they hit those ceilings, but we are in a window of elite pitching that's likely going to start breaking down as soon as this offseason (Hader's contract is up after next season, Burnes, Woodruff, Lauer, and Houser's contracts are all up after the '24 season and I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some of them traded earlier than that this offseason and next). We can wait on prospects, but there's a good chance our pitching won't be as elite by the time they pan out, if they pan out.

I'm not saying we should trade our top guys just to trade them, but having Soto for 2-3 playoff runs or Reynolds for 3-4 playoff runs are the types of scenarios where you have to consider parting with some top guys to improve this offense while our pitching staff is still intact.

[SoCalBrewfan]

At least in public the ask from Washington has been five or more young major leaguers or prospects, I imagine that this plays out like (as said above) 3 or 4 FV 50+ guys and then a couple of what Doug Melvin used to call 'nuggets.'  (Details matter a lot of course.) It's very hard to put together enough prospect value for most teams.  For contenders with young players in key major league roles they might well be asked to surrender some of them, and Washington has plenty of leverage here.  A Soto package is going to hurt.

To wit, a Brewers package might well need to include Ashby and Devin Williams plus Chourio plus Frelick just to get in the discussion..  As noted above, we don't have enough in the farm system otherwise, and I doubt that taking on Corbin's contract to lower the price is a viable option for Milwaukee.  I would be stunned to see the Brewers having the winning offer here.

OTOH, it's not hard to see why the Cardinals are among the front runners, but it might well cost them some guys currently in the majors (Gorman, Donovan, Yepez, Zack Thompson, maybe even Dylan Carlson?) AND a chunk of their top 100 guys (Walker, Liberatore, Winn, Herrera).  They have a big advantage with a 60 FV guy in Walker and I think Washington requires him to be in any deal. Would they do Gorman, Walker, Liberatore, Winn and change?  Would you?  It would be a fascinating all in move for St Louis (and I do fear this somewhat), but their window might be as narrow as ours, and it would take a big chunk of their future to get him.

[pitchleague]

Somehow, I have this fear that, in one week, we'll all look at what it actually took to get Soto out of Washington by some other team (i.e. not the Brewers) and ruminate, saying, "that's all?!?!" because some team got lucky by sending less than Washington's asking price.

I still feel we should go for it and at least provide a highly competitive offer.  Heck, try to acquire Soto, Corbin, AND Josh Bell and really see what happens!

 

(Yes, sometimes I live in Fantasyland)

[wibadgers23]

7 minutes ago, pitchleague said:

Somehow, I have this fear that, in one week, we'll all look at what it actually took to get Soto out of Washington by some other team (i.e. not the Brewers) and ruminate, saying, "that's all?!?!" because some team got lucky by sending less than Washington's asking price.

I still feel we should go for it and at least provide a highly competitive offer.  Heck, try to acquire Soto, Corbin, AND Josh Bell and really see what happens!

 

(Yes, sometimes I live in Fantasyland)

[JCREW]

8 minutes ago, pitchleague said:

Somehow, I have this fear that, in one week, we'll all look at what it actually took to get Soto out of Washington by some other team (i.e. not the Brewers) and ruminate, saying, "that's all?!?!" because some team got lucky by sending less than Washington's asking price.

I think you are right in that if Soto is traded this week, the return will be less than what people imagine. 

That being said, I think it will be more than the equivalent of Small, Frelick, Chohurio, Kelly, +

[Jopal78]

23 minutes ago, SoCalBrewfan said:

At least in public the ask from Washington has been five or more young major leaguers or prospects, I imagine that this plays out like (as said above) 3 or 4 FV 50+ guys and then a couple of what Doug Melvin used to call 'nuggets.'  (Details matter a lot of course.) It's very hard to put together enough prospect value for most teams.  For contenders with young players in key major league roles they might well be asked to surrender some of them, and Washington has plenty of leverage here.  A Soto package is going to hurt.

To wit, a Brewers package might well need to include Ashby and Devin Williams plus Chourio plus Frelick just to get in the discussion..  As noted above, we don't have enough in the farm system otherwise, and I doubt that taking on Corbin's contract to lower the price is a viable option for Milwaukee.  I would be stunned to see the Brewers having the winning offer here.

OTOH, it's not hard to see why the Cardinals are among the front runners, but it might well cost them some guys currently in the majors (Gorman, Donovan, Yepez, Zack Thompson, maybe even Dylan Carlson?) AND a chunk of their top 100 guys (Walker, Liberatore, Winn, Herrera).  They have a big advantage with a 60 FV guy in Walker and I think Washington requires him to be in any deal. Would they do Gorman, Walker, Liberatore, Winn and change?  Would you?  It would be a fascinating all in move for St Louis (and I do fear this somewhat), but their window might be as narrow as ours, and it would take a big chunk of their future to get him.

It's just not a Cardinals move to be that reckless, and there are other moves that could be made that would deliver almost the same amount of improvement as Soto for less cost.

They already have Arenado, Goldschmidt, a resurgent Tyler O'Neill and Nolan Gorman in the middle of their lineup. Sure, Soto would make any lineup better, but the Cardinals would be better served getting some pitching to go with Mikolas and Wainwright as both Flaherty and Matz are out long-term with injuries and Dakota Hudson currently on the IL. The cost in terms of talent to acquire say Jose Quintana and Noah Syndergaard would be much less than that to acquire Soto, and are they type of deals that are much more likely to occur. 

Further,  the Cardinals have never exceeded a total payroll of 163 million dollars. But in 2022 they already have 100 million dollars guaranteed to just five players (Goldschmidt, Arenado, Mikolas, Matz and DeJong), adding what would conservatively be another 20 million for Soto in 2022 would make it tough for the Cards to hang on to arbitration eligible players: O'Neill, Flaherty, Helsley, Gallegos etc. let alone bring in enough pitching talent to have a playoff worthy staff without blowing by their previous threshold for payroll. 

They may very well have the talent to get it done, but its probably not the smartest move for the Cardinals to make all things considered. 

[brewers888]

I hope Soto goes elsewhere as I don't want an Orioles decade type of rebuild as we will be facing after 2024 when Burnes, Woodruff, Soto, and Hader all leave for nothing. If there was a way to guarantee a World Series win I would do it but since there isn't I am not selling out just to be a bottom feeder in a few years. Totally get the excitement of having a player like Soto even for two years and I totally see why Stearns would do it before leaving the mess to Arnold or Luhnow who I would hire if David leaves but I've seen enough last place baseball to want to go back there again. 

[brewers888]

Also the thought of us taking in Corbin and his awful contract is laughable.

[monty57]

The Cardinals only seem to do these type of deals when they've been allowed to talk to the player and his agent and have an understanding that a long-term extension will happen. However, as @Jopal78 mentioned, it would be tough for them to fit that contract into their payroll along with all their other guys. 

I'm always worried about the Cardinals, and the thought of them bringing in Soto worries me, so I hope he lands elsewhere.

[YelichPosse]

I'd love Soto. But has been stated numerous times, we are probably not JUST Soto away from being a serious threat in October. Therefore tread lightly.

Unless, it becomes an Arenado to St. Louis situation where ... it's basically highway robbery. (If I recall he was supposed to get more so towards what WASH is asking on package size/what COL wanted?). Then, in that case, we better be in it.... 

[brewerfan82]

If we're multiple pieces away, adding Soto for 2.5 years would certainly be one of the biggest steps we could take to not being multiple pieces away. Our lineup doesn't have too many black holes in it to begin with at this point, so getting a player that is significantly better than anything we have on the roster probably moves the needle further than adding 2-3 small possible improvements elsewhere.

Just to put things in perspective, here's Soto's numbers the past three years compared to what we have available currently...

2020-22 vs. RHP:

2020-22 vs. LHP:

And the key here is that this isn't a guy you're getting for two months, it's possibly three playoff pushes. With our current pitching, if there's any possibility of getting him, you gotta look into it.

For this year, if you pair that with something like a Josh Bell (120 wRC+ vs. RHP '20-22, 117 wRC+ vs LHP '20-22), I think you are all of a sudden looking at a team that is definitely a contender to go deep in the playoffs. It would cost a HAUL, but I think Soto is a guy you do that for.

[phnxcrew]

I say we drive the price up for the cardinals, they get him and have 120 million between three hitters and Corbin and no pitching (as well as no future).

then-pivot to josh bell and JD Martinez and be much better than them, especially with peralta returning.  

[jw5511986]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

 Nobody thought the Nationals would win the WS in 2019, and not many picked the Braves to get by the Brewers in 2021 let alone win it all, even the Milwaukee Brewers pushed the mighty Dodgers to the brink in 2018. It's getting to the playoffs and then playing well during the post-season that wins titles, not necessarily having the most talent. 

I assume your being facetious about the pitching. Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff are as good as they come in terms of starters and they've pitched like it this year when healthy. Ashby and Lauer have been outstanding at times. Williams, Milner have been terrific. Hader stumbled into the break but allowed 17 baserunners during the first 3 months of the season. 

If you're really 35 you were alive when the Brewers had Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Yovanni Gallardo and  Ryan Braun All Star players who had ten plus season major league careers.  But look no further than other Top 50 prospects the Brewers had in the last 17 years and you'll see the that despite being a well regarded prospect it doesn't necessarily indicate the player will turn out to be a great major leaguer: Jose Capellan (#18 in '05), Mark Rogers (#40 in '06), Alcides Escobar (#8 in '09), Mat Gamel (#23 in '09), Brett Lawrie (#26 in '11), Orlando Arcia (#6 in '16) Lewis Brinson (#18 in '17).

Like I said, its fun to muse about the Brewers acquiring Soto but I don't think it will happen. If I were in there shoes though I wouldn't miss the opportunity to acquire a generational talent for multiple seasons due to affinity for some minor league players multiple seasons away from the major leagues. 

I will freely admit that I'm basing this on gut and projection but I feel stronger about Chourio than any of the "hits". None of the "misses" were talked about the way Chourio has been to this point.

Of course anything is possible, see the 2007 Rockies, I just don't particularly feel like we have that 'Team of Destiny' vibe at this point. I do get the idea that you should strike when the iron is hot but the outs that an organization like ours has are much more limited than someone like the Dodgers, Yankees, etc... If we didn't win and someone like Soto (unlikely) or Corbin (pretty likely) were to take a step back by some percentage it would be potentially catastrophic for us. The closer we come to the end of contracts for guys like Corbin, Woody, Soto, etc... the likelier you are to get deals where you get 75 cents for your dollar. Our organization is not well placed to handle that and as mentioned by someone else, I think we would be looking at an Orioles style rebuild which would be harmful to the team and the fan base in general, at a time when baseball is struggling to grow fan support.

[monty57]

I'll try to be optimistic here for a minute. I think Attanasio would fork over the $8-9M Soto is due for this year, so the big question is "can we afford Soto next year?"

Recently I figured that if the Brewers keep their current guys, they would be around the same payroll as they started this year (low $130's), but they are losing McCutchen, Narvaez, and Peterson (and of course won't be paying Cain). 

So, could they field a team and pay Soto in 2023? 

Let's assume he'll make $25M (he's at $17.1M and will be going into his 2nd arby year). 

-If they do not exercise Wong's option, he will receive a $2M buyout rather than a $10M salary. Replace him with Turang at league minimum, and you are saving around $7.25M. Of course, Turang may not be here if he's traded to Washington.

-Hunter Renfroe would no longer be needed, as Soto and Yelich would be the corner OF. Trading Renfroe should save around $10M as my guess for his Year 4 arby number. 

-I had Hiura at $1.25M, and he's probably gone. That spot will have to go to someone, but could be a small savings of around $500,000. Or, maybe they just hold him if they have to trade Renfroe and can't afford a different DH.

-Hader will be going into his final year of team control, and he'll probably make $15M. Trading just him could allow for the team to hold onto Renfroe as the DH, and pick up a young player to fill one of the holes we traded away for Soto.

-With Ashby now signed, and Small on the cusp, it is probable that one of our starters is dealt. Even if it's Houser or Lauer, that could save enough around $4M.

Wong's $7.25, Hader's $15M, Houser/Lauer's $4m (all estimates except Wong) pay for Soto.

C - Severino/Caratini
1B - Tellez
2B - Turang
SS - Adames
3B - Urias
LF - Yelich
CF - Taylor 
RF - Soto
DH - Renfroe

SP - Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer/Houser, Ashby

Then in the offseason after the 2023 season, we do a Marlins-style selloff, trading Soto, Woodruff, Burnes, Houser/Lauer (whichever isn't traded), and Adames in one offseason to completely rebuild the farm so we don't have to face a decade-long rebuild. It would be entirely possible that we would be trading a reigning MVP and Cy Young winner in the same offseason.

I still don't think we'll get him, but it is fun to think about.

[brewmann04]

Talk the Padres are becoming the player here 

[Eye Black]

On 7/25/2022 at 2:32 PM, homer said:

I think the odds of this are infinitesimal but just for fun....

Chourio

Wiemer

Frelick

Antoine Kelly

Ethan Small

 

Is that enough?

I think that’s close, but maybe slightly light. I am convinced the Nationals are going to get at least one controllable major league player (or minor league player with MLB experience) as part of the return for Soto. Sort of thinking along the lines of Carlson or Gorman (Cardinals), Lux (Dodgers), Kelenic (Mariners), Abrams (Padres).  

While I think the Brewers are obviously an extreme long shot, I think their most likely package to get a deal done would be the above (Chourio, Wiemer, Frelick, Kelly) with Aaron Ashby swapped in place of Ethan Small. Yes, I realize Ashby just signed an extension and is unlikely to get traded, but we’re dreaming about acquiring Juan Soto here.

 

[wibadgers23]

Seems like it’ll either be the Cardinals or Padres. Go Padres I guess.