I want to see San Diego fail

[owbc]

The Padres benefit from the lack of professional sports competition in San Diego as well as having a fanbase that has put up with losing for a while. 

In that situation it can be profitable to make splashy signings to get everyone interested in baseball again. 

There's no evidence that anything they are doing is sustainable. I highly, highly doubt they are going to be the ones to give Soto his $500 million contract. Soto will be on the Mets in 2025. 

[CheezWizHed]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think Tatis is my favorite non-Byron Buxton player and Manny Machado might be my least favorite player in baseball. Quite a combo for one roster.

Tatis actually bugs me, but its mainly from ads, hype, etc... He is good, but can't stay healthy.  He comes off as very smug at times. 

[Hopper]

I want to see Manny Machado fail.

I have nothing against the rest of the team.

[MrTPlush]

Didn't your mom ever tell you jealousy will get you nowhere?

Idk, I guess I really don't care that much what other teams do. I only marginally care if it is a team that crushed our dreams before and even then...that is only if they are playing us. 

[Thurston Fluff]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

What the Padres are doing is an indictment of the rest of baseball and the lines they sell us to keep us content with not competing with the likes of the Yankees and Dodgers more evenly (larger markets will always have an advantage but small and mid-markets overstate how large the gap needs to be).

San Diego's metro population is wedged smack-dab between the Twin Cities and Tampa. Yet look at what the Padres are doing right now while the Twins and Rays ownership pretend they're paupers.

While the Padres are technically small market they are not as small revenue as their market size suggests. I did a little looking to see the difference in their tv deal. From what I can tell they are in the middle of a 1.2 billion dollar tv deal that gave them an average of $50 million per year the past ten years with a $200 million signing bonus. It also appears the team would also received a 20 percent equity stake in Fox Sports San Diego.

From what i can tell the Brewers made an average of $20-$28 million annually during most of that time. What it is now I don't know. Tampa just signed a deal a couple years ago that now gives it about the same as the Rays at first then go up annually. So they are now even or even ahead of San Diego annually but had been making around $35 million annually prior to 2018. Their main problem is, and always has been, lack of attendance at the games. I really don't have much sympathy for their plight because it seems like the community doesn't support it. But I do admire their organization for putting out a good product on a regular basis despite their limitations. Which leads me to this. While being in a small market sucks it does help drive innovation to create equal results without equal resources. Losing that may lead to less innovation. Whether that's good or bad I don't know.

Anyway I really don't care if they win it all or not. I think the Brewers are a far better run organization and their track record shows that. I guess San Diego accepted they have to spend money because they can't put forth a good team without it. One WS win for the Brewers, Royals, Tampa, Oakland or Miami is equal to three of any of the big spenders. When we win ours we can enjoy it without any asterisks of winning due to a rigged system.

 

[brewers888]

Misery loves company so I too hope San Diego fails. 

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

While the Padres are technically small market they are not as small revenue as their market size suggests. I did a little looking to see the difference in their tv deal. From what I can tell they are in the middle of a 1.2 billion dollar tv deal that gave them an average of $50 million per year the past ten years with a $200 million signing bonus. It also appears the team would also received a 20 percent equity stake in Fox Sports San Diego.

From what i can tell the Brewers made an average of $20-$28 million annually during most of that time. What it is now I don't know. Tampa just signed a deal a couple years ago that now gives it about the same as the Rays at first then go up annually. So they are now even or even ahead of San Diego annually but had been making around $35 million annually prior to 2018. Their main problem is, and always has been, lack of attendance at the games. I really don't have much sympathy for their plight because it seems like the community doesn't support it. But I do admire their organization for putting out a good product on a regular basis despite their limitations. Which leads me to this. While being in a small market sucks it does help drive innovation to create equal results without equal resources. Losing that may lead to less innovation. Whether that's good or bad I don't know.

Anyway I really don't care if they win it all or not. I think the Brewers are a far better run organization and their track record shows that. I guess San Diego accepted they have to spend money because they can't put forth a good team without it. One WS win for the Brewers, Royals, Tampa, Oakland or Miami is equal to three of any of the big spenders. When we win ours we can enjoy it without any asterisks of winning due to a rigged system.

 

The TV money is...pretty insane. From what I understand, the Dodgers, Angels, Yankees, Mets, they're all pulling in 300+M a year from their local TV deals. 

I've also seen where the revenue sharing on the National TV deals is up to 60M now meaning as of 2022 every team will receive at least 100M dollars when combining their local and National deals(I realize you're working backwards when citing your numbers and...from what little I know, they seem accurate. I've seen the Brewers TV numbers estimated at ~24M in 2018, so right in that range you suggested). 

It's an extremely rigged system and it's infuriating when I see people complain about Mark A not willing to "open up the wallet," while people cite the Bucks and Packers...as though they're in even a remotely similar financial system.

 

I agree, the Brewers are a very well run organization, Attanasio isn't one of those owners like the Nutting family...that seems to be using their MLB team to get that tax free revenue or the Angelos family in Baltimore who will probably pocket 150M this year(not even going to start with the team from the North side just printing money). 

I don't always love every move the Brewers make, but I've not gotten the impression once that at ANY level of the organization is prioritizing anything but winning. The money goes back into the franchise, payroll, scouting, LA development, improving their facilities. The only thing I'd argue they should do is buy/build 30-40 unit apartments near every minor league system so players earning very little don't have to worry about housing, but...that's getting off topic. 
 

[NBBrewFan]

I don't really want the city of San Diego or the Padres fans to fail.  I do want Preller to fail as I think he's just a horrible GM, so for that to occur, the Padres need to fail.  Conflicting feelings for sure.

As far as the Dodgers loathing, I sorta get it, they are a huge market, have a huge advantage in the current baseball landscape and use that advantage.  However, I admire their ability to consistently produce prospects that they can slot into the major league roster.  If there's any single counter to the Brewers can't get elite prospects because they are too successful to be high in the draft, it's the results from the Dodgers.  (And, of course, from our arch enemy the Cardinals.).  The Dodgers are an extremely well run organization that has a financial advantage making them a formidable adversary.  The Yankees have many of the same financial advantages, but not nearly run as well.  I can't stand the Yankees (I'll remain silent about their fans in respect for a few friends who are Yankee fans) and hope they crash and burn every year. If we were nearly as smart as the Dodgers I would be really unhappy with their financial advantage,

[Thurston Fluff]

19 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

I don't really want the city of San Diego or the Padres fans to fail.  I do want Preller to fail as I think he's just a horrible GM, so for that to occur, the Padres need to fail.  Conflicting feelings for sure.

As far as the Dodgers loathing, I sorta get it, they are a huge market, have a huge advantage in the current baseball landscape and use that advantage.  However, I admire their ability to consistently produce prospects that they can slot into the major league roster.  If there's any single counter to the Brewers can't get elite prospects because they are too successful to be high in the draft, it's the results from the Dodgers.  (And, of course, from our arch enemy the Cardinals.).  The Dodgers are an extremely well run organization that has a financial advantage making them a formidable adversary.  The Yankees have many of the same financial advantages, but not nearly run as well.  I can't stand the Yankees (I'll remain silent about their fans in respect for a few friends who are Yankee fans) and hope they crash and burn every year. If we were nearly as smart as the Dodgers I would be really unhappy with their financial advantage,

 

How much better would our farm system look if Ashby and Hiura were still prospects? It's easier to have a good farm system when a team doesn't have room for good prospects in the majors. Part of the reason the Dodgers can maintain their system is because prospects like Ashby stay in the minors longer because they can keep players like Kershaw. It doesn't mean the Dodgers don't have a very good draft and development system but the difference is we have to promote any prospect that looks like they can help while the Dodgers can just promote the ones who force their way onto the roster by pure performance. That leaves a farm loaded with useful players learning of the farm instead of on the fly.  It also means they're more likely to get more out of their rookies than we do.

[NBBrewFan]

7 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

 

How much better would our farm system look if Ashby and Hiura were still prospects? It's easier to have a good farm system when a team doesn't have room for good prospects in the majors. Part of the reason the Dodgers can maintain their system is because prospects like Ashby stay in the minors longer because they can keep players like Kershaw. It doesn't mean the Dodgers don't have a very good draft and development system but the difference is we have to promote any prospect that looks like they can help while the Dodgers can just promote the ones who force their way onto the roster by pure performance. That leaves a farm loaded with useful players learning of the farm instead of on the fly.  It also means they're more likely to get more out of their rookies than we do.

Starters/semi-Regulars

Gavin Lux 23

Cody Bellinger 21

Walker Buehler 23

Julio Urias 19

Hiura 22

Ashby 23

[Axman59]

Padres swept by the Dodgers. Not a great start to the Juan Soto era.

[Jim French Stepstool]

On 8/4/2022 at 5:37 PM, UpandIn said:

 

It's an extremely rigged system and it's infuriating when I see people complain about Mark A not willing to "open up the wallet," while people cite the Bucks and Packers...as though they're in even a remotely similar financial system.

 

 
 

An astoundingly good point that not enough people realize or think about.

I wonder if SD's strategy is due to being in the same division as the Dodgers--that they feel their only hope is to create some kind of "dream team", topple them somewhere in the 2 or 3 year window, then disappear into the desert while they wait for the next cycle.

I liked them in '84 when they knocked out Chicago.

[UpandIn]

13 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

An astoundingly good point that not enough people realize or think about.

I wonder if SD's strategy is due to being in the same division as the Dodgers--that they feel their only hope is to create some kind of "dream team", topple them somewhere in the 2 or 3 year window, then disappear into the desert while they wait for the next cycle.

I liked them in '84 when they knocked out Chicago.

Perhaps, but SD is in a pretty healthy place financially...from what I understand.

Just repeating what I've heard, the Pads got the team, the Park and then invested heavily in real estate around the park(apartments, etc....).

They then paid that debt down as much as they could and they long had the plan of paying it off, then spending big. A few years ago they got a lot of heat when they tried to open their books and show their fans their plans.
They also own their own part of a TV deal and beyond that...I don't know. I know it's a LOT more expensive to go to a Padres game than a Brewers game and their owner is worth about 5X what Attanasio is worth.

 

I also get the feeling that Stearns is the more conservative one and that Attanasio isn't the one reigning him in...but that's just based on the interview Attanasio did and how he's operated in the past(signing Garza, Suppan, pushing for Darvish...etc...).

[UpandIn]

On 8/5/2022 at 10:54 AM, Thurston Fluff said:

 

How much better would our farm system look if Ashby and Hiura were still prospects? It's easier to have a good farm system when a team doesn't have room for good prospects in the majors. Part of the reason the Dodgers can maintain their system is because prospects like Ashby stay in the minors longer because they can keep players like Kershaw. It doesn't mean the Dodgers don't have a very good draft and development system but the difference is we have to promote any prospect that looks like they can help while the Dodgers can just promote the ones who force their way onto the roster by pure performance. That leaves a farm loaded with useful players learning of the farm instead of on the fly.  It also means they're more likely to get more out of their rookies than we do.

I'm also curious just how many payers sign with the Dodgers/Yankees because...they're the Dodgers or Yankees.

A lot of LA prospects, Cuban prospects...even without the limitless pools.

 

[torts]

Nice to see the Padres get swept by their daddy this weekend 

[Jopal78]

On 8/4/2022 at 9:30 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

What the Padres are doing is an indictment of the rest of baseball and the lines they sell us to keep us content with not competing with the likes of the Yankees and Dodgers more evenly (larger markets will always have an advantage but small and mid-markets overstate how large the gap needs to be).

San Diego's metro population is wedged smack-dab between the Twin Cities and Tampa. Yet look at what the Padres are doing right now while the Twins and Rays ownership pretend they're paupers.

Sure, but it’s for one year, and the GM may have the hottest seat in baseball having been there nearly ten years and being a disappointment/terrible for his entire tenure but one year.

I believe San Diego is a revenue sharing recipient, and they’re beyond the luxury tax, they have a Marlins feel to them. If they win a title this year, they’ll break up the team next year. If they get bounced in the wild card round, Preller probably finally gets canned and the new GM reshuffles the deck.

[Underachiever]

I am a petty, petty sports fan. My first name rhymes with small. I hold sports grudges like a hungry dog on a t-bone. I believe this is the only correct way to be a fan.

I hope the Padres fail this year. If Machado twists his ankle trying to spike a player, I would waste no pity on him. Enjoy your wild card banner, Padres.

2023 is a new year. I may feel differently then.

[Axman59]

Manny Machado is a next level DB. Good luck to the Padres making all these egos work together. Conflict helped sabotage their 2021 season.

[monty57]

16 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Perhaps, but SD is in a pretty healthy place financially...from what I understand.

Just repeating what I've heard, the Pads got the team, the Park and then invested heavily in real estate around the park(apartments, etc....).

They then paid that debt down as much as they could and they long had the plan of paying it off, then spending big. A few years ago they got a lot of heat when they tried to open their books and show their fans their plans.
They also own their own part of a TV deal and beyond that...I don't know. I know it's a LOT more expensive to go to a Padres game than a Brewers game and their owner is worth about 5X what Attanasio is worth.

 

I also get the feeling that Stearns is the more conservative one and that Attanasio isn't the one reigning him in...but that's just based on the interview Attanasio did and how he's operated in the past(signing Garza, Suppan, pushing for Darvish...etc...).

If they put together a winning business model that allows them to compete with bigger markets while operating in a smaller market, then I applaud them.

A lot of Brewer fans wanted Miller Park built downtown, but Selig used his political influence to keep the stadium where it is so he could get the parking revenue. Looks like the San Diego plan may have been better.

We'll see what the future holds. I expected that they would have to blow things up, but if they really invested in the business to the degree you're saying, they could have built income streams that will allow them to be more competitive long-term. 

[Hopper]

I don't understand the venom being spewed at San Diego.  They have never been a powerhouse, or feared in any way.

I do understand the Machado hate, I'm right there with you on that, but the hate for the Padres in general I don't understand.

With the teams that are probably in the playoff hunt, I'd rather see the Padres in the World Series than any of the other National league teams, the only thing that would bother me is seeing that punk Machado in the WS.  If not for him, I'm rooting for the Padres all the way.  So there lies the rub for me.  Cheering on the Padres after the Brewers are eliminated will be tough all because of Machado.

Meh, who knows, who cares once the Brewers are eliminated, I lose interest anyway.

[Brewermania101]

3 hours ago, monty57 said:

If they put together a winning business model that allows them to compete with bigger markets while operating in a smaller market, then I applaud them.

A lot of Brewer fans wanted Miller Park built downtown, but Selig used his political influence to keep the stadium where it is so he could get the parking revenue. Looks like the San Diego plan may have been better.

We'll see what the future holds. I expected that they would have to blow things up, but if they really invested in the business to the degree you're saying, they could have built income streams that will allow them to be more competitive long-term. 

of course you could  use the other side of the coin, not having the stadium downtown is a positive for the fans  not in the Milwaukee area.  I know there are lots of people that wouldn't  make the trip to a Brewer game since they wouldn't want to deal with the traffic of the  city of  Milwaukee's size. It would be interesting  to see if/ which situation would be more beneficial (more Mil fans less state, or the situation that is currently) Of course if it was built downtown they may of had some sort of situation like in Minneapolis where parking on the outskirts and riding in as a possibility to make the situation moot.

[UpandIn]

9 hours ago, monty57 said:

If they put together a winning business model that allows them to compete with bigger markets while operating in a smaller market, then I applaud them.

A lot of Brewer fans wanted Miller Park built downtown, but Selig used his political influence to keep the stadium where it is so he could get the parking revenue. Looks like the San Diego plan may have been better.

We'll see what the future holds. I expected that they would have to blow things up, but if they really invested in the business to the degree you're saying, they could have built income streams that will allow them to be more competitive long-term. 

Agreed...but I also don't really know the finer points of where they could have or should have built Miller Park or how or where SD is located with respect to their downtown. I'm sure others could speak to that. I do recall a plan or an idea that doesn't seem to have come to fruition, but wasn't there a plan in place where the Brewers would buy up the land around Miller Park/AmFam and build up commercial real-estate, build high end apartments, etc. 

There's certainly the room and...I'd argue the desire for it. 

Either way, I agree...what SD has done that's allowed them to push their payroll to compete is impressive. 

[Eye Black]

On 8/4/2022 at 12:15 PM, owbc said:

The Padres benefit from the lack of professional sports competition in San Diego as well as having a fanbase that has put up with losing for a while. 

I think this first part is true since they basically have a monopoly on the local sponsorship and advertising dollars for live sports entertainment.

Also, Kyle Glaser of Baseball America pointed out that San Diego is the 8th largest city in the US and with the surrounding area it’s the 16th largest market size in terms of metro area. He also pointed out they have 5 very wealthy communities within driving distance of Petco and their market numbers don’t include those beyond the border into Tijuana. Glaser said while if you go deeper into Mexico the Dodgers have the stronger support, the population near the boarder is very pro-Padres. 

[Underachiever]

17 hours ago, monty57 said:

If they put together a winning business model that allows them to compete with bigger markets while operating in a smaller market, then I applaud them.

A lot of Brewer fans wanted Miller Park built downtown, but Selig used his political influence to keep the stadium where it is so he could get the parking revenue. Looks like the San Diego plan may have been better.

We'll see what the future holds. I expected that they would have to blow things up, but if they really invested in the business to the degree you're saying, they could have built income streams that will allow them to be more competitive long-term. 

All is relative, I guess. But SD is more than double the size of Milwaukee in population. San Diego County is the fifth-most populated county in the US, and it sits next to Orange County, the sixth-most populated. I work in Orange County a lot, and the drive down to San Diego is no more than when I drive from Madison to Milwaukee (I know, Cali traffic can make it worse.). I've made the drive, leaving Irvine after work to be at a Padres game. Not all small markets are created equal.

And I agree that putting Miller Park in a huge parking lot really takes away from it. I am getting close to my goal of visiting every major league park, and there is nothing like the vibe around those downtown parks. Take urban transit or Uber downtown, don't worry about parking. The scene is lively around there. Love it. San Fran, Colorado, Washington, St. Louis, for example. People walking around, bars, restaurants. Compare that to sitting in a line of cars trying to get off of Brewer Way.

Edit: Well, shoot. Those posts saying almost the exact same thing as what I wrote didn't show up until I posted. Or I'm bad at internetting.

[owbc]

I found the rankings of WAR returned in trades since 2010 from reddit, so far 12 teams have been analyzed. If there's a reason to cheer for the Padres to fail, it's that they are trying to spend money to cover up a decade worth of moronic transactions. 

 

1. Cleveland Guardians: 87.6 WAR (1.11)

2. Tampa Bay Rays: 59.9 WAR (0.47)

3. Milwaukee Brewers: 34.7 WAR (0.39)

4. Chicago Cubs: 33.1 WAR (0.33)

5. Cincinnati Reds: 21.6 WAR (0.33)

6. Chicago White Sox: -8.3 WAR (-0.12)

7. Pittsburgh Pirates: -9.7 WAR (-0.10)

8. Detroit Tigers: -23.0 WAR (-0.40)

9. Colorado Rockies: -32.8 WAR (-0.52)

10. Seattle Mariners: -54.6 WAR (-0.39)

11. Miami Marlins: -80.6 WAR (-0.88)

12. San Diego Padres: -102.4 WAR (-0.90)