Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)

[Robocaller]

Question for you folks.

On the Baseball Trade Values site, Burnes and Chourio have nearly equal value. Under what conditions would you trade Chourio for someone like Burnes?  

If my team was competitive, I'd always trade a guy like Chourio for a guy like Burnes. If my team wasn't competitive, I'd trade a guy like Burnes for Chourio.

 

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Question for you folks.

On the Baseball Trade Values site, Burnes and Chourio have nearly equal value. Under what conditions would you trade Chourio for someone like Burnes?  

If my team was competitive, I'd always trade a guy like Chourio for a guy like Burnes. If my team wasn't competitive, I'd trade a guy like Burnes for Chourio.

 

If I was the Brewers? No. 

If I was the Dodgers? Absolutely. 

Honestly not sure there is much I would trade Chourio for at this point. Would need to be for a player with multiple years of team control. 

[Brewcrew82]

33 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

If I was the Brewers? No. 

If I was the Dodgers? Absolutely. 

Honestly not sure there is much I would trade Chourio for at this point. Would need to be for a player with multiple years of team control. 

Off the top of my head, I would trade him for: Julio Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna, Yordan Alvarez, and Adley Rutschman. But that's about it. Probably not even for Mike Trout, which is crazy. 

[monty57]

19 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Question for you folks.

On the Baseball Trade Values site, Burnes and Chourio have nearly equal value. Under what conditions would you trade Chourio for someone like Burnes?  

If my team was competitive, I'd always trade a guy like Chourio for a guy like Burnes. If my team wasn't competitive, I'd trade a guy like Burnes for Chourio.

 

I don't think smaller revenue teams should ever trade a guy who is on a trajectory to become a superstar for a short-term MLB upgrade. 

The Brewers are going to find themselves on the other side of that transaction over the next few years, as they will have to trade away guys like Burnes, Woodruff and Adames, and we have to hope we can pick up some young stars in return.

So to answer the question, as a Brewer GM, I would never trade a guy like Chourio for a guy like Burnes (speaking in levels of talent and team control), and I would trade a guy like Burnes for a guy like Chourio every time their team control was coming to an end and/or finances mandated it.

[jay87shot]

21 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Question for you folks.

On the Baseball Trade Values site, Burnes and Chourio have nearly equal value. Under what conditions would you trade Chourio for someone like Burnes?  

If my team was competitive, I'd always trade a guy like Chourio for a guy like Burnes. If my team wasn't competitive, I'd trade a guy like Burnes for Chourio.

 

I am pretty sure that sight uses a system that takes a player expected WAR×8 (or however many million 1 WAR is now days) then subtracts the players salary and multiples by years controlled or under contract.

So if Burnes has 2, 6 WAR years that is worth 96 points, subtract 11 and say 15 for his next 2 years salary and you get 70ish.

For prospects I would guess they go more by prospect rankings.

However if Chorio averages 5 WAR a year for 6 years that is a 240 value. Take away the 60 or so million he would earn and that's 180ish. Then it probably would be a percentage of failure so 40% gets us around 72 which is relatively close to the sites evaluatations.

[Brewcrew82]

Well, I think I found the leading candidate for the worst proposed trade of the offseason (and it literally just started):

Burnes to NYY for RHP Domingo German, SS Oswald Peraza, SS Trey Sweeney, RHP Will Warren

Yankees fans really think they can get anything for their pile of scraps....

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10052560-predicting-1-trade-for-every-mlb-team-during-the-2022-23-offseason

[Robocaller]

4 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Well, I think I found the leading candidate for the worst proposed trade of the offseason (and it literally just started):

Burnes to NYY for RHP Domingo German, SS Oswald Peraza, SS Trey Sweeney, RHP Will Warren

Yankees fans really think they can get anything for their pile of scraps....

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10052560-predicting-1-trade-for-every-mlb-team-during-the-2022-23-offseason

Those guys would be OK as the third-sixth best guys they'd get in a trade. 

[MadThinker88]

On 10/17/2022 at 10:41 PM, jay87shot said:

How about this 3 team trade.

We get Gio Urshela, the Twins get Amed Rosario, and the Guardians get Renfroe. I would guess that we and/or maybe the Twins might have to give up a little extra to even it out.

Basically all 1 year contracts at 10ish million and each team swaps from a position of depth for a weaker position. We improve 3B and let our young guys play OF. Twins open up 3rd for Miranda and replace Correa. The Guardians have lots of MI depth and could put Kwan in CF, Gonzalez in LF, and Renfroe RF. Additionally some sweetener for Clev. since Rosario would probably has more value than the other 2.

Serious question:  Even with a sweetener: what is the reason for CLE to make this trade & bring in Hunter Renfroe?? With a new minority owner approved, the budget constraints will be reduced.  I could easily see a payroll figure in the $90- 100M range for 2023.

I get CLE trading Amed Rosario, but that is more a function of all the great young talent that is ready to graduate from the farm system.  I fully expect Amed to get dealt in order to open a 40 man roster spot and bring in some low-level minor league talent to replenish the system.

After years of little to no outfield help 3 different OF rookies made their debuts in 2022 (looking rather good in the process- Steven Kwan, Oscar Gonzalez & Will Brennan) and perhaps the system's best OF prospect (George Valera) will be ready to debut in 2023. Even with the struggles at the plate for Straw, is D in CF likely gets him a Gold Glove this off season.  If the name Will Brennan does not ring a bell, do yourself a favor a look at his numbers across AA & AAA in 2022:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=brenna008wil 

166 hits including 40 doubles/ 4 triples/ 13 homers over 129 games is good production regardless of level.  Outfield is no longer a pressing need for the CLE club.

 

[Jeff Meyer]

On 10/2/2022 at 8:24 AM, wibadgers23 said:

First thing I’m doing this offseason is trading Tyrone Taylor for whatever we can get. This shouldn’t be a difficult decision. We’ve got a bunch of young outfielders who are ready to go and Taylor should in no way be blocking any of them. Then, I’m calling up Yelich and telling him to be prepared to play mostly DH going forward. This opens up two outfield spots for Frelick and Mitchell and Ruiz replaces Taylor as the 4th outfielder. Keep Renfroe to provide some veteran leadership.

I agree I don't dislike Taylor but I think Mitchell and Frelick deserve a chance to prove themselves next season. I believe they are both ready. And I would like to get Ruiz involved especially because of his speed. Taylor could be a good chip along with Huira and Houser in another trade. The post regarding Yandy Diaz has me interested since the basis was Taylor perhaps we could expand it with Huira and Houser and get a player from Rays 40 man and / or a Prospect ( I know they would be lower end ones ) 

[jay87shot]

On 10/20/2022 at 6:46 PM, MadThinker88 said:

Serious question:  Even with a sweetener: what is the reason for CLE to make this trade & bring in Hunter Renfroe?? With a new minority owner approved, the budget constraints will be reduced.  I could easily see a payroll figure in the $90- 100M range for 2023.

I get CLE trading Amed Rosario, but that is more a function of all the great young talent that is ready to graduate from the farm system.  I fully expect Amed to get dealt in order to open a 40 man roster spot and bring in some low-level minor league talent to replenish the system.

After years of little to no outfield help 3 different OF rookies made their debuts in 2022 (looking rather good in the process- Steven Kwan, Oscar Gonzalez & Will Brennan) and perhaps the system's best OF prospect (George Valera) will be ready to debut in 2023. Even with the struggles at the plate for Straw, is D in CF likely gets him a Gold Glove this off season.  If the name Will Brennan does not ring a bell, do yourself a favor a look at his numbers across AA & AAA in 2022:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=brenna008wil 

166 hits including 40 doubles/ 4 triples/ 13 homers over 129 games is good production regardless of level.  Outfield is no longer a pressing need for the CLE club.

 

I was just looking at improving 3rd and thought Urshela would make sense. The 3 team idea is that the Twins could use help at SS until Royce Lewis is healthy and the Guardians need hitting. Hunter on the Guardians would be similar to him here, his bat is nice but there are young guys. Also Cleveland could use him a bunch at DH. 

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

On 10/21/2022 at 12:50 PM, Jeff Meyer said:

I agree I don't dislike Taylor but I think Mitchell and Frelick deserve a chance to prove themselves next season. I believe they are both ready. And I would like to get Ruiz involved especially because of his speed. Taylor could be a good chip along with Huira and Houser in another trade. The post regarding Yandy Diaz has me interested since the basis was Taylor perhaps we could expand it with Huira and Houser and get a player from Rays 40 man and / or a Prospect ( I know they would be lower end ones ) 

I think you're on to something re Hiura. His main trade value would have to be as part of a package. Taylor as part of a package would also make sense, but I can't get the feeling out of my head that one of the "Nashville four" OFs could be included in a deal (and I wish I COULD get it out of my head because I don't want to see it).

As for Chourio/Burnes, the "someone like Burnes" would have to have at least a few years of control, and a couple of their top 3-4 prospects would have to be added. And that's from an organization with a strong farm system.

Hell, I don't even know if I'd do it then.

[jay87shot]

Stearns loves to wait in free agency for discounted vets. What about these guys as later offseason additions at potentially discounted prices.

What are thoughts on JD Martinez? I know everyone (myself included) wants Yeli to DH. What if JD has a low market and like 1/8-12 million offers. If Yeli takes to 1st maybe Yeli at 1st and JD to DH. Throw in Michael Brantley and maybe Matt Carpenter into the same discussion.

Josh Bell could be an interesting free agent as well, his second half is going to scare a bunch of people off.

Not that he fits but Michael Conforto will likely get a 1 year prove it deal and I could see him taking a while to sign.  Joc Pederson would probably fit into the we don't need an OF, but this guy could be a middle of the order bat. Possibly Cody Bellinger as well if he isn't tendered.

 

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

Stearns loves to wait in free agency for discounted vets. What about these guys as later offseason additions at potentially discounted prices.

What are thoughts on JD Martinez? I know everyone (myself included) wants Yeli to DH. What if JD has a low market and like 1/8-12 million offers. If Yeli takes to 1st maybe Yeli at 1st and JD to DH. Throw in Michael Brantley and maybe Matt Carpenter into the same discussion.

Josh Bell could be an interesting free agent as well, his second half is going to scare a bunch of people off.

Not that he fits but Michael Conforto will likely get a 1 year prove it deal and I could see him taking a while to sign.  Joc Pederson would probably fit into the we don't need an OF, but this guy could be a middle of the order bat. Possibly Cody Bellinger as well if he isn't tendered.

 

 

 

JD Martinez scares the heck out of me with the numbers he posted after May, particularly the decline in his power and exit velocity. I think he's clearly on the downswing, and that if we're going to move Yelich to 1B, we're better served going with Rowdy at DH. I think Rowdy's going to put up similar power numbers to this year, but with an improved BA, OBP, and OPS in light of the shift ban. 

[nate82]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

What are thoughts on JD Martinez? I know everyone (myself included) wants Yeli to DH. What if JD has a low market and like 1/8-12 million offers. If Yeli takes to 1st maybe Yeli at 1st and JD to DH. Throw in Michael Brantley and maybe Matt Carpenter into the same discussion.

I think JD Martinez is going to have to take a deal somewhere around $10-12m for one year.  I just don't see that big of a market for him.

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

Josh Bell could be an interesting free agent as well, his second half is going to scare a bunch of people off.

Josh Bell is a notorious one half is good and then the other is bad you just don't know which half it is going to be.

Career by month:

Career by half:

By half and year:

2022

2021

2019

2018

2017

 

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

Not that he fits but Michael Conforto will likely get a 1 year prove it deal and I could see him taking a while to sign.  Joc Pederson would probably fit into the we don't need an OF, but this guy could be a middle of the order bat. Possibly Cody Bellinger as well if he isn't tendered.

Conforto will probably get the most but definitely a 1-year prove it deal. With Joc Pederson the Brewers have tried previously but they didn't this past off season.  Bellinger maybe done but I wouldn't mind him on a 1-year deal but no more than $8m.  

[Lathund]

To answer the point about for who I'd trade someone like Chourio, I'd say that the important part is the team control and contract. I would never do it for 2 years of a player, so I wouldn't do it for Burnes. Or I would under specific cirumstances, like if the team was already a legit WS favorite with a 2 year window or something, but not in general and not where the Brewers are now.  The Yelich trade serves as the type of trade I'd be willing to give up a true top prospect for. A proven 3-4 WAR type of player with upside for more, under 5 years of cheap team control. But those types of players so very rarely get traded. Other than that I don't really see what would do it. 

[jay87shot]

So I am trying to look at the offseason a little differently and figure out how to get this team to 45+ WAR (we were 34.1 last year). To do that every position player and starter need to average about 3 WAR and then the DH, bench, and bullpen would be at 6 total. Obviously that could be shifted some and it is hard to figure out some rookie WAR potential. 

Last year the every players were close to a 3 WAR per and the pitching ended up way behind. Starters are 8.0 (not including Alexander, 7.2 with Alexander) and the pen was around 2 total (5.1 for near regulars, -3.1 for short term/trade guys and Gott). This is going to make my predictions lean more towards pitching improvement than the past. 

1)Keep Wong (I really want to have the money but WAR says he is a really good value). If he put up his usual high marks at 2nd he could have been a near 5 WAR player in only 115 starts.

2)Replace 1st and catcher

3) Add more high quality arms

4)Get what you can for extra pieces

I am going to do a second edition of my 2023 blueprint with the reworked ideas.

 

[DR28]

BA did an interview with MA and he said "we might be very active this winter. "

Yep, I'm highly doubting that... With what money???

Unless we plans on blowing up the team and trading off Burnes, Woodruff and Adames.

[wibadgers23]

What’s it going to take to get one of these guys? We could sure use an upgrade at catcher.

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

What’s it going to take to get one of these guys? We could sure use an upgrade at catcher.

Garrett Mitchell (maybe Esteury Ruiz?) and another higher-end piece potentially gets you Jansen (a Wisconsin native). Kirk would require you to add Frelick or Woodruff, while Moreno can probably only be had in a Burnes trade. 

[Hopper]

On 11/4/2022 at 2:55 PM, DR28 said:

BA did an interview with MA and he said "we might be very active this winter. "

Yep, I'm highly doubting that... With what money???

Unless we plans on blowing up the team and trading off Burnes, Woodruff and Adames.

Being active doesn't have to mean signing top free agents, it could also mean signing guys like McCutchen, over the hill vets, to make it look like we are making an attempt at getting better.  Being active doesn't have mean trading for guys that will push us over the top, it can also mean making trades that look like they might help, but in the end don't.

We can be REALLY ACTIVE in the off season, but that doesn't mean we are spending a lot of money, or even improving.

I have lost all faith, sorry.

[Hopper]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Garrett Mitchell (maybe Esteury Ruiz?) and another higher-end piece potentially gets you Jansen (a Wisconsin native). Kirk would require you to add Frelick or Woodruff, while Moreno can probably only be had in a Burnes trade. 

I do not want to overpay for Jansen just because he is a WI boy.  I also do not think that acquiring him will be nearly as expensive as you keep telling everyone.  I'd give up Ruiz for him, but not any of the other top guys in our system.

[Brewcrew82]

25 minutes ago, Hopper said:

I do not want to overpay for Jansen just because he is a WI boy.  I also do not think that acquiring him will be nearly as expensive as you keep telling everyone.  I'd give up Ruiz for him, but not any of the other top guys in our system.

Look at BTV. And then look at Jansen's WRC+ compared to all catchers with more than 200 at-bats. He'll be a popular commodity on the trade market. 

[nate82]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Look at BTV. And then look at Jansen's WRC+ compared to all catchers with more than 200 at-bats. He'll be a popular commodity on the trade market. 

Yeah no thanks on Jansen especially if it involves Mitchell or anyone else.  Maybe for Ruiz but it would be Ruiz and a lower level prospect.  I just don't see Jansen having the value that some think he has.  At best going forward I think he is similar to Narvaez.  Plus the years of control for Jansen don't justify giving up Mitchell at all.  Maybe if Jansen had another year of control sure then that makes sense but he doesn't so I wouldn't pay the premium to get Jansen as it is just not worth it.

The only catcher that the Blue Jays have that I would be willing to let Mitchell go for is Kirk.  

[Brewcrew82]

51 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Yeah no thanks on Jansen especially if it involves Mitchell or anyone else.  Maybe for Ruiz but it would be Ruiz and a lower level prospect.  I just don't see Jansen having the value that some think he has.  At best going forward I think he is similar to Narvaez.  Plus the years of control for Jansen don't justify giving up Mitchell at all.  Maybe if Jansen had another year of control sure then that makes sense but he doesn't so I wouldn't pay the premium to get Jansen as it is just not worth it.

The only catcher that the Blue Jays have that I would be willing to let Mitchell go for is Kirk.  

I'm just going based on BTV. I do agree that his value should be lower based on the fact that he hasn't been an every day catcher in his career. 

The Narvaez comparison doesn't really work, though. Jansen hits the ball a lot harder and more often than Narvaez. Even when when Narvaez was hitting 20 HRs with Seattle, that was with well below average hard hit metrics and was largely a product of the juiced ball. 

[Robocaller]

3 hours ago, Hopper said:

I do not want to overpay for Jansen just because he is a WI boy.  I also do not think that acquiring him will be nearly as expensive as you keep telling everyone.  I'd give up Ruiz for him, but not any of the other top guys in our system.

based on the BTV site, you could get him for

Frelick and Moore

or

Mitchell + Brown + Logan Henderson.

or

Mitchell + Ruiz + Misiorowski.