Brewers sign Blake Perkins

[Redd Vencher]

4 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Is that what they settled on? That makes more sense as Khris Bryant in particular was the type of situation they were attempting to remedy...making a player like that a FA a year earlier, but I've found contradictory statements.  

I'd nix the top 100 ranking and keep the full season credit. It really is nonsense that Brice Turang cannot net the Brewers a comp pick based on such an arbitrary set of rankings...and one that he's appeared on before. At least as of now. He may make one of the...three lists they go off. MLB, BA and...ESPN. That's an absolute joke. We may be subjected to the whims of Keith Law when determining who gets an extra draft pick and another...million plus in the bonus pool. Awesome. A guy who's so humble and willing to admit he's wrong...

 

They also lose that year no matter what...So if you DID wait to bring Wiemer up(for example as he's one of the two players who'll be on top 100 lists that have any shot of getting called up next year) you could wait until June, he could have a Ryan Braun like rookie year and you both lose time AND you don't get a comp pick. That's kinda stupid. Give him the year of service time, but leaving Wiemer down in AAA isn't necessarily manipulating service time. Leaving Frelick down would be. 

So if I'm reading this right, both Burnes and Woodruff would have qualified for a PPI pick...but as you can get just the one, we'd have gotten one for Burnes while just missing out in 2020 and this past year.

As an aside, it's nice watching two Cards cast offs finish 1st and 5th in Cy Young voting for different teams. 

It's not the best rule, so I imagine it gets reworked in the next CBA. I think it pretty much guarantees that Chourio isn't up before September next year, so we don't lose the extra year if he forces the issue midseason and performs well.

[jay87shot]

5 hours ago, UpandIn said:

People keep stating this unequivocally. He may not be. He's on the 40 man roster. He hits righties. He's going to be in big league camp. It's hardly a stretch to see him breaking camp with the ML team...particularly as it would not look like Frelick, Yelich and Mitchell are in line for a LOT of playing time. 

Taylor is likely a lock to make it and then it'll come down to how ready they think Wiemer is and how this kid does in Spring Training, what they may do with a guy like Ruiz and who, if anyone else they acquire to play the OF. 

But at the moment, we're looking VERY weak vs righties and that just happens to be where he has excelled at the last two years. 

 

This was a signing that cost almost nothing. It won't be his fault if we lose Cam Devanney in the Rule5, they already made that call. He could be on another team by April, the 26 man or AAA. 

I sincerely doubt Chourio is going to force the issue in 2023. I'll be happy if he spends most the year in AA and he's healthy. He's an absolute stud...for a 18 year old kid who played at HiA this year, but it's premature to start talking about a place on the roster for him at this point. 

Wiemer is obviously a reasonable candidate. Wouldn't shock me to see him put up a 5 WAR season playing elite RF, stealing bases and if he gets hot, even putting up a .270/.350/.500 line. I could also see him being Jared Kelenic.

I don't care if a guy strikes out 30% of the time if he's making loud contact and taking pitches...but Wiemer is also a guy who's up and down, has only 40 games at AAA. But of course, he could force the issue and take that RF spot and make the Brewers look brilliant. 

I guess I could see him making the team if we part with Taylor and go with a 3 rookie OF and Yeli as the primary DH. 

I think I like Weimer's potential best out of the 4 AAA OF. Definitely a 30/30 potential guy who could win a gold glove. I would think he is 4th in line however to start with the big league club, however not by much and camp/trade could trade a lot.

It is crazy to think of each of the 4 OF potential, 5 if you count Chourio.

Weimer .270/.350/.850 30/30 with 5+ WAR.

Frelich .310/.375.  10/40 probably 4-5 WAR depending on defense (I think stats will show him a high end lf and slightly above average cf.

Ruiz .300/.355.    15/50  probably 4-5 WAR like frelich.

Mitchell .280/.350/.825 20/40 maybe 30 hr potential if he improves launch angle.   4+ WAR.

Chorio  ??? .300/.400/.900. 30-40/30-40. 7 WAR depending on body development. 

It might be interesting to see if Mitchell can maybe pick up 1st base.

[superfly]

On 11/24/2022 at 8:24 AM, SF70 said:

They like their position prospects and after watching them and following them, I certainly can see why. To add an impactful controlled bat takes 3 top prospects +, and thankfully the team didn’t go that route. 

It’s taken the team 7 years to build-up the farm system positionally and they aren’t going to trade-off what they have for 1 impact bat that improves their WS odds by 1.5%..

 

Then trade Woodruff and/or Burnes and stop pretending everything is OK the past couple years. They don’t even try to improve the hitting on the margins in season when my dog could see they needed HELP and trade away Renfroe to boot.

[DuWayne Steurer]

13 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I guess I could see him making the team if we part with Taylor and go with a 3 rookie OF and Yeli as the primary DH. 

I think I like Weimer's potential best out of the 4 AAA OF. Definitely a 30/30 potential guy who could win a gold glove. I would think he is 4th in line however to start with the big league club, however not by much and camp/trade could trade a lot.

It is crazy to think of each of the 4 OF potential, 5 if you count Chourio.

Weimer .270/.350/.850 30/30 with 5+ WAR.

Frelich .310/.375.  10/40 probably 4-5 WAR depending on defense (I think stats will show him a high end lf and slightly above average cf.

Ruiz .300/.355.    15/50  probably 4-5 WAR like frelich.

Mitchell .280/.350/.825 20/40 maybe 30 hr potential if he improves launch angle.   4+ WAR.

Chorio  ??? .300/.400/.900. 30-40/30-40. 7 WAR depending on body development. 

It might be interesting to see if Mitchell can maybe pick up 1st base.

Mitchell has 24 homeruns total between college, minors, and his brief major league stint. It might be a tad early to be projecting him as a possible 30 homerun guy. 

Before we start tagging all these guys as possible 4-5 WAR players we might want to see them play in the majors.  Projecting Chourio to put up MVP level production is pretty heavy before he's even reached double AA. 

 

[jay87shot]

2 minutes ago, DuWayne Steurer said:

Mitchell has 24 homeruns total between college, minors, and his brief major league stint. It might be a tad early to be projecting him as a possible 30 homerun guy. 

Before we start tagging all these guys as possible 4-5 WAR players we might want to see them play in the majors.  Projecting Chourio to put up MVP level production is pretty heavy before he's even reached double AA. 

 

I am just saying that dreaming on potential that could be were they are. I am not anointing anyone. Mitchell has a lot of power, it just that his swing is not tailored for big HR numbers at all. The HR numbers don't indicate it but if you look at his body type and strength there is easily a 30 HR potential in there. If you look at Yeli through his rookie year you never would have said he has a chance to hit 44 HR. Mitchell is similar but with 20 or 30 pounds more muscle (not sure how heavy 23 yo Yeli was).

[UpandIn]

26 minutes ago, DuWayne Steurer said:

Mitchell has 24 homeruns total between college, minors, and his brief major league stint. It might be a tad early to be projecting him as a possible 30 homerun guy. 

Before we start tagging all these guys as possible 4-5 WAR players we might want to see them play in the majors.  Projecting Chourio to put up MVP level production is pretty heavy before he's even reached double AA. 

 

Quote

It is crazy to think of each of the 4 OF potential, 5 if you count Chourio.

If you wait until they actually do it, it's not really a prediction or projection so much as an observation. 

[Redd Vencher]

34 minutes ago, superfly said:

Then trade Woodruff and/or Burnes and stop pretending everything is OK the past couple years. They don’t even try to improve the hitting on the margins in season when my dog could see they needed HELP and trade away Renfroe to boot.

The offense was good last year, and it accomplished by really having a hole in the lineup. Are biggest hole over the entire season was C, but that's because Caratini and Narvaez fell completely off a cliff after the trade deadline. They were right to attack the pitching that had been an issue, and they probably should have grabbed a SP in hindsight.

[LouisEly]

The Brewers, like many other teams, churn the bottom 2-3 spots of the 40-man every offseason.  Right now I have no desire to do the research, but I know that there have been several examples in recent years of guys the Brewers have signed or claimed and then put through waivers later on in the offseason to try to keep in the organization once they've found a more desirable person for that roster spot.

I get the "don't assume he's going to AAA until he actually does" standpoint, but I think it also goes both ways - don't assume he's making the ML roster until he actually does.  Likely moreso for a guy who has never been in the majors before.

[UpandIn]

26 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

I get the "don't assume he's going to AAA until he actually does" standpoint, but I think it also goes both ways - don't assume he's making the ML roster until he actually does.

Right...but is anyone assuming he makes the ML roster?

[SoCalBrewfan]

So much drama, folks, over what is a pretty minor and likely at most complementary acquisition.  To me, Perkins might most resemble Keon Broxton...not physically but in terms of role.  Broxton was never a build around guy, but his CF defense and speed gave him a moderately valuable profile despite his below average 736 ops as a Brewer.  Broxton managed 4.3 bWAR over 270 games in three seasons, and even after Lo Cain was signed Broxton had positive WAR in a season in which he hit .179.  

That's not to say that Perkins is guaranteed to have any value, just that he might be able to fill the same sort of role and can have value as a complementary piece or platoon partner even if he doesn't hit much.

It's seems unlikely that all of the rookie OF types will find success, so spreading the risk by having multiple options has value, as does having a complementary piece with defensive value, whom you don't mind optioning or promoting based on the performance of more central talents.  Also, who would be surprised to see Perkins DFA out of the blue as part of a bigger deal?  It's not like the bottom of the 40 man roster is filled with irreplaceable excellence right now.

Unexpected MLB contracts as incentive seem to be a thing, even Shelby Miller just signed one with the Dodgers despite throwing 7 major league innings last year.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

It could be nothing. OR it could be like giving Jonathan Davis 91 plate appearances while a division lead turned into a massive deficit and eventually a missed playoff berth. Don't act the Brewers giving plate appearance to cheap journeymen has never cost them anything in regard to on field success or playing time for younger, more talented options.

Davis put up an OPS+ of 71 while Garrett Mitchell, who finally supplanted him, put up an OPS+ of 136. The Brewers finished one game out of the final wild card spot.

[MVP2110]

1 hour ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

It could be nothing. OR it could be like giving Jonathan Davis 91 plate appearances while a division lead turned into a massive deficit and eventually a missed playoff berth. Don't act the Brewers giving plate appearance to cheap journeymen has never cost them anything in regard to on field success or playing time for younger, more talented options.

Davis put up an OPS+ of 71 while Garrett Mitchell, who finally supplanted him, put up an OPS+ of 136. The Brewers finished one game out of the final wild card spot.

And they could have just kept giving at bats to Lorenzo Cain who had an OPS+ of 34. Mitchell was still in AA at the time of the Cain move

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

It could be nothing. OR it could be like giving Jonathan Davis 91 plate appearances while a division lead turned into a massive deficit and eventually a missed playoff berth. Don't act the Brewers giving plate appearance to cheap journeymen has never cost them anything in regard to on field success or playing time for younger, more talented options.

Davis put up an OPS+ of 71 while Garrett Mitchell, who finally supplanted him, put up an OPS+ of 136. The Brewers finished one game out of the final wild card spot.

Davis was on the team from June 18th through August 24th, receiving the 10th most PAs over that stretch. With positive defensive and base running value FanGraphs had him at 0.5 WAR, and what few hits he got were somewhat timely with a +0.19 WPA. The player he replaced was at -0.5 WAR and -1.76 WPA.

Brewers with notable negative WPAs during that same 6/18 to 8/24 time frame included Ashby (-1.13), Jace (-1.01), Hader (-0.95), Tyrone (-0.92), Alexander (-0.90), Adrian (-0.79), Caratini (-0.74), Strzelecki (-0.57), Omar (-0.46), Bush (-0.45), Urias (-0.44), Chi Chi (-0.37), Jandel (-0.32) and McGee (-0.29).

The idea that Davis cost us anything doesn't have much of an objective case. 

In 2021, Brewers pitchers tallied +16.91 WPA (2nd). In 2022 they only managed +5.21 WPA (12th). When divvying up blame for why the Brewers missed the playoffs in 2022, that gets the biggest slice of the pie.

 

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Davis replacing someone even worse than he was does not mean the Brewers couldn't have benefited from going to Mitchell sooner. Again they finished 1 game out of the wild card with Mitchell vastly outperforming Davis. And bringing up Davis's baserunning and defense is pretty disingenuous given Mitchell's proficiency in those areas.

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Davis replacing someone even worse than he was does not mean the Brewers couldn't have benefited from going to Mitchell sooner. Again they finished 1 game out of the wild card with Mitchell vastly outperforming Davis. And bringing up Davis's baserunning and defense is pretty disingenuous given Mitchell's proficiency in those areas.

Mitchell was injured and didn’t play from May 14th through July 6th. 

They also finished two games out of the WC since Philly had the tiebreaker.

[Redd Vencher]

22 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Davis replacing someone even worse than he was does not mean the Brewers couldn't have benefited from going to Mitchell sooner. Again they finished 1 game out of the wild card with Mitchell vastly outperforming Davis. And bringing up Davis's baserunning and defense is pretty disingenuous given Mitchell's proficiency in those areas.

Mitchell isn't maintaining a .548 BABIP over a significant stretch.

[markedman5]

Brewers open another 40 man roster spot

 

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Brewers open another 40 man roster spot

 

Murphy/Jansen trade or Contreras/Vasquez signing incoming any moment now.

[nate82]

4 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Murphy/Jansen trade or Contreras/Vasquez signing incoming any moment now.

I had a dream or a nightmare a few days ago of the Brewers signing Contreras to a 5-year $90m contract.  Just saying……

[DR28]

Sounds like Cards had good meeting with Contreras the other day.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

5 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Sounds like Cards had good meeting with Contreras the other day.

And water is wet. Contreras to the Cards was about the easiest free agent match you could make this offseason. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't follow in Yadi's douche footsteps.

[Outlander]

Jackson was out of options so like Pablo he wasn't long for the 40 man.

[Lathund]

14 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

And water is wet. Contreras to the Cards was about the easiest free agent match you could make this offseason. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't follow in Yadi's douche footsteps.

As much as Yadi declined in his last couple of years, he was still great at handling pitchers by all accounts. Probably a big part of why their underwhelming pitching kept managing to be servicable year on year. If they turn to Contreras they'll be in for a rude awakening I think. No Yadi, and a new pitching coach, quite a lot of uncertainty for an already highly volatile (Injuries, depth) pitching staff. 

[sveumrules]

Turns out getting added to the 40 man in November didn’t guarantee Perkins a spot on the 26 man come March.

[wiguy94]

39 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Turns out getting added to the 40 man in November didn’t guarantee Perkins a spot on the 26 man come March.

Surely Jon Singleton made the opening day roster though...right?