Brewers Playoff Roster

[Brewcrew82]

With the Brewers' playoff odds now above 99% (99.9% per fangraphs, to be precise), we can start to think about who will ultimately make up the 26 man playoff roster. This will obviously be the Brewers' first experience in the new 3 game Wild Card round format, but I think we can expect it to look similar in shape to the 2021 NLDS roster vs the Braves, with 4th/5th starters such as Miley, Houser, and Rea potentially getting the short end of the stick due to the lesser # of games. 

The following are locks imo provided they are healthy:

Position Players: Contreras, Caratini, Santana, Adames, Monasterio, Turang, Yelich, Frelick, Canha, Taylor (10)

Pitchers: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Williams, Payamps, Milner, Uribe, Megill, Peguero, Wilson (10)

That makes 20 spots completely accounted for, with the remaining 6 up for grabs among the following:

Position Players: Donaldson, Tellez, Wiemer, Anderson, Perkins, Mitchell?, Miller, Toro, Ruf, Winker, Allen?, Black??

Pitchers: Miley, Houser, Rea, Chafin, Vieira, Lauer, Teheran, Bukauskas, Gasser??

For position players, I would easily pencil Donaldson in so long as he stays healthy and keeps getting on base/tearing the cover off the ball. He should start at 3B/DH imo. That gets you to 21. Another outfielder would certainly be well-advised, particularly one who can be substituted in late in games for defensive and pinch running purposes. Wiemer, Perkins, and Mitchell would be the clear candidates, all elite fielders and baserunners. Wiemer has been healthy and played the most, but he has completely lost it at the plate and is showing zero signs of figuring it out. Perkins has played second most after Wiemer and is currently in AAA on rehab. He has less power than Wiemer, but gets on base and gives you more competitive at-bats. And then there's Mitchell, who has been on the IL for most of the season, but is nearing a return, though he'll be cutting it awfully close and will have minimal time to readjust. If he does manage to make it back in time and is showing no ill-effects, then I think you would have to go with him as he offers the best combination with the bat, glove, and on the basepaths. For the final spot, you could go for more positional versatility with a guy like Owen Miller or Brian Anderson (or even Tyler Black), or you could opt for more of a power punch off the bench with someone like Rowdy Tellez. Right now, I'd go with Rowdy, but I am getting close to thinking otherwise.

As for pitchers, you only need three starters, so the spots of Miley, Houser, Rea, etc. would be up in the air. I would have an emergency starter ready in case you decide to use a guy like Freddy Peralta out of the pen in one of the first two games or have to pitch the Big 3 to clinch the division against the Cubs. That gives Miley a place on the roster imo and gets you to 24. Vieira has playoff-type stuff, so if he continues to pitch like he did last Friday, I think you give him a spot. Which leaves the final spot to be decided between Houser, Chafin, Rea, etc. Are you okay with only one lefty in the pen (ignoring Miley)? If not, then you would imagine Chafin gets it by default, unless the Brewers actually listen to me and decide to finish the year with Gasser in the pen. If you are, then it's between Houser and Rea. I think you would have to go with Houser due to his experience and at the expense of Chafin and a second lefty. 

[Brewcrew82]

In summary, here's my projected playoff roster as of now:

Catchers: Contreras, Caratini

IFs: Santana, Monasterio, Adames, Donaldson, Turang, Tellez

OFs: Yelich, Frelick, Canha, Taylor, Mitchell

SPs: Burnes (Game 1), Woodruff (Game 2), Peralta (Game 3), Miley (emergency/long relief)

RPs: Williams, Payamps, Milner, Uribe, Megill, Peguero, Wilson, Vieira, Houser 

[SomewhereInTime]

Actually it would be their second experience with the three game wild card round format as that was how the postseason was done in 2020 where the Brewers lost to the Dodgers 2-0 in the series.

[Sugarrayray]

I will puke if somehow Chafin makes the playoff roster. And I don’t think being left handed should help him as he has reverse splits. I really wish Craig would use Thyago more so we can see what we have in him. Chafin looks completely washed, the other guy throws almost 100. I’d think he should get a look to see if he can perhaps procure a Topa like value, as long a shot as that may be, that year he came out of nowhere and pitched meaningful innings in the playoffs.

[Sugarrayray]

Also if Mitchell isn’t back I would probably take Perkins over Weimer due to the fact that he can make contact…but seriously I think switch hitters at the bottom of the bench offer a value and flexibility that Craig loves.

[wiguy94]

5 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

In summary, here's my projected playoff roster as of now:

Catchers: Contreras, Caratini

IFs: Santana, Monasterio, Adames, Donaldson, Turang, Tellez

OFs: Yelich, Frelick, Canha, Taylor, Mitchell

SPs: Burnes (Game 1), Woodruff (Game 2), Peralta (Game 3), Miley (emergency/long relief)

RPs: Williams, Payamps, Milner, Uribe, Megill, Peguero, Wilson, Vieira, Houser 

One thing I’ll say is it’s very unlikely the Brewers carry 13 pitchers on their WC or NLDS rosters especially with the NLDS having 3 scheduled off days this year. In 2021 when there were only 2 scheduled off days we only carried an 11 man pitching staff and that was with no universal DH yet. 
 

[SF70]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

One thing I’ll say is it’s very unlikely the Brewers carry 13 pitchers on their WC or NLDS rosters especially with the NLDS having 3 scheduled off days this year. In 2021 when there were only 2 scheduled off days we only carried an 11 man pitching staff and that was with no universal DH yet. 
 

Yup.

11 pitchers— Woodruff (game 1 starter) Burnes (game 2) Peralta (game 3) Miley-Williams-Megill-Uribe-Payamps-Milner-Peguero-Wilson

15 positionals— Contreras-Caratini-Santana-Tellez-Canha-Turang-Monasterio-Adames-Donaldson-Yelich-Frelick-Taylor-Wiemer-Mitchell-Miller

[Outlander]

Yeah, don't see any way they carry 13 pitchers but could possibly see 12. May depend if Mitchell is deemed healthy enough to play. Don't see a scenario where Chafin is on the roster, will be nice to have Miley available if necessary.

[Brian]

The way the Brewers go threw pitchers Miley better be on the roster also the addition of Donelson seemed to give new life to the Brewers. Andrew Chafen's arm is shot, no way he is making it. 

[shanedog19]

If Mitchell is deemed healthy and looks good on his rehab assignment, he'll be on the playoff roster. Even if he doesn't start, he'd be a huge pinch hitter, defensive replacement, or pinch runner. His speed alone would make it nearly impossible to keep him off the playoff roster.

[brewmann04]

I sorry no why do they add Chaffin at this point  he terrible

[clancyphile]

C: Contreras, Caratini (2)

IF: Santana, Turang, Adams, Monasterio, Donaldson, Tellez (6)

OF: Yelich, Frelick, Canha, Taylor, Wiemer, Mitchell (6)

SP: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta (3)

RP: Williams, Payamps, Uribe, Milner, Peguero, Megill, Wilson (7)

Flex P: Miley, Houser (2)

[kestrel79]

Chafin as the game 1 "opener". (blue text)

[Never Outhustled]

Tyler Black might still get a shot before the year is over. He's scorching hot at AAA, and adds speed and versatility to the roster. 

[wiguy94]

38 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

Tyler Black might still get a shot before the year is over. He's scorching hot at AAA, and adds speed and versatility to the roster. 

Seems pretty unlikely they will burn a 40-man spot for this offseason that doesn't need to be burned for 10 MLB games. 

[Never Outhustled]

44 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Seems pretty unlikely they will burn a 40-man spot for this offseason that doesn't need to be burned for 10 MLB games. 

We'll have plenty of open spots on the 40, there almost no additions.

 

Yes, I agree it's only 10 regular season games, but also the playoffs.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

We'll have plenty of open spots on the 40, there almost no additions.

 

Yes, I agree it's only 10 regular season games, but also the playoffs.

Do you seriously think the Brewers would give Black, a rookie with at most roughly 10 of games MLB experience at that point, a big role in the playoffs? The likelihood the Brewers burn a 40 man spot so Black can sit on the bench in the playoffs is very, very slim.

[Never Outhustled]

7 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Do you seriously think the Brewers would give Black, a rookie with at most roughly 10 of games MLB experience at that point, a big role in the playoffs? The likelihood the Brewers burn a 40 man spot so Black can sit on the bench in the playoffs is very, very slim.

Again, there's no concern with the 40 man spot, as the Brewers will have more 40 man spots available than they've had in years. 

Now, your choices are Black, who might have a Sal Frelick like impact, or Rowdy. If Black doesn't hit, then he is Rowdy, except with speed and versatility. If Black does hit, and he is red hot in AAA, then he's exactly what this sad Brewers offense needs. 

It would be ridiculous not to give him a shot considering how bad this Brewers offense is. 

[Never Outhustled]

Tyler Black out of the Nashville lineup tonight, and they just had an off day Monday. Is he getting the call? Is the Brian Anderson madness about to end?

Did I mention Black has an OPS over 1300 across his last 13 games?

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

Tyler Black out of the Nashville lineup tonight, and they just had an off day Monday. Is he getting the call? Is the Brian Anderson madness about to end?

Did I mention Black has an OPS over 1300 across his last 13 games?

Very likely just a day off. He had last Thursday off as well.

[duewizard]

Any notion of Black coming up is unrealistic. They won't bring a rookie up for the last 8-ish games of the season and then toss him to the playoffs. MAYBE only to pinch run.

And even then there are still 2 matters. Number 1 is Black is not play-off eligible. Sure that can be solved with some ghost injuries but it is a problem nevertheless.

Number 2 is that Black is still not Rule 5 eligible and I think the Brewers would like to keep the spot open during the offseason.

[sveumrules]

Kind of funny that Wiemer is DHing at Nashville tonight, but I guess stuff like that is bound to happen when the org is like five deep with legit young CFers.

Obviously small MLB samples so far but the numbers are…

Wiemer (1,026 inn.)
+5 DRS | +6.1 UZR | +8 OAA

Frelick (384 inn.)
+6 DRS | +2.7 UZR | +6 OAA

Perkins (349 inn.)
+9 DRS | +4.8 UZR | +7 OAA

Mitchell (304 inn.)
+3 DRS | +1.7 UZR | +2 OAA

Thats not even counting Taylor (who would probably get CF innings on a lot of other teams), and then there’s that Jackson kid too.

[Brewcrew82]

https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1705051468259090751?s=20

I don't expect it, but would love if they did this with Black or Chourio. After all, don't we pride ourselves on being modeled after the Rays?

[wiguy94]

13 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1705051468259090751?s=20

I don't expect it, but would love if they did this with Black or Chourio. After all, don't we pride ourselves on being modeled after the Rays?

Caminero is Rule 5 eligible this offseason so not exactly the same situation as Black or Chourio.

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Caminero is Rule 5 eligible this offseason so not exactly the same situation as Black or Chourio.

Yeah. I know. I just think there's a perfect opportunity to offload some dead weight from the roster and get some young guys some playing time next week assuming we clinch this weekend. I don't expect it, though, due to the 40 man roster considerations.

Why couldn't Chourio be our 1996 Andruw Jones?