Direction of the franchise?

[TPlush]

Looking back, most of us can agree that the mid-2000s up through the 2011 NLCS run, we were on an upward trajectory; drafted and developed plenty of young talent, made a few big moves (Sabathia, Greinke, etc.) and changed the narrative about the franchise. After a few not so great years, Melvin's final year, trading assets for rebuilding pieces, and into the Stearns era, also felt like the team was on an upward trajectory. Yelich and Cain acquisitions, the 2018 NLCS run, division titles, the "pitching lab", etc.

It feels like for about a year or so now the tide is turning though. Trading an elite closer at the trade deadline while leading the division, to save money on payroll. Stearns' "bites of the apple" comment. Attanasio threatening to move the team if the stadium deal didn't get done. And now our biggest rival steals our highly-regarded, Milwaukee-native manager. We haven't even gotten to the Burnes (or Adames? and forget about Woodruff) trades yet.

My point is not to be all doom and gloom. We're still much better off than we were 20-25 years ago. But it sure feels like we're entering (or have entered) a phase where ownership is just mailing it in, letting the franchise value go up while not really caring about the fans or team all that much. Not Rockies or Athetics level of dgaf at all, but more like a Minnesota Timberwolves "we're happy to make the playoffs! Yay!" type of mentality.

[Brewcrew82]

Well, if you make the postseason in MLB, you have a shot, if recent postseasons have taught us anything....Regular season be damned. 

[TPlush]

54 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Well, if you make the postseason in MLB, you have a shot, if recent postseasons have taught us anything....Regular season be damned. 

This is true. Batting Jesse Winker in the playoffs, not so much a recipe for success though

[ClosetBrewerFan]

The Brewers have a top 5 minor league system. They had an excellent draft last year, many of who could be in the top 100 prospect lists which should keep the minor league system stocked for years to come. They have a slew of ML ready hitters just waiting to break out. They have an excellent bullpen and the organization pitching lab that seems to keep churning out good pitchers.

There is a lot to be positive about this organization. The Counsell thing has gotten us all down, but dont let that skew your outlook. We have plenty to be excited about. The offseason is just starting. Let's see what the 2024 team will look like.

[SF70]

3 hours ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

The Brewers have a top 5 minor league system. They had an excellent draft last year, many of who could be in the top 100 prospect lists which should keep the minor league system stocked for years to come. They have a slew of ML ready hitters just waiting to break out. They have an excellent bullpen and the organization pitching lab that seems to keep churning out good pitchers.

There is a lot to be positive about this organization. The Counsell thing has gotten us all down, but dont let that skew your outlook. We have plenty to be excited about. The offseason is just starting. Let's see what the 2024 team will look like.

Absolutely.

And a top farm system created from within, without a sell-off or high draft-pick. Scouting combined with skill in draft-pool money manipulation in the draft and scouting internationally with special emphasis of scouting in Venezuela.

This team infrastructure strength is going to continue the pipeline of talent indefinitely, which supersedes any perceived negative about this team. 

Patience is what we really need here, and for those that have it, this is only the beginning stages of the golden era of Brewers fandom.

[Samurai Bucky]

The Brewers had the fifth best record in baseball.  Yes, they are in one of the weakest divisions, but the schedule is much more balanced than in the past.  So the "we are in the weakest division" narrative doesn't carry as much weight.  They played well enough during the second half of the season including, yes, a sweep of the World Champion Texas Rangers at Texas.

Yes... this is a transition.  Yes, deciding on a good skipper is huge.  Even though "Attanasio is the cheapest SOB to ever own a baseball club," the Brewers have been in the playoffs more in the past decade than in the history of the franchise.

I'm looking for the club to bring in some quality veterans to make the roster better.  Do they need to break the bank like the Rangers did?  Maybe, maybe not.  Having a great minor league system is encouraging, but can they stay relevant while these young players grow?  Make a few deals like they did for Contreras, and my mind will be set at ease.

[Frisbee Slider]

If we keep Burnes, we are probably the favorites to win the NL Central?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Things feel dire in a way they haven’t in quite some time but I’m reserving judgment for awhile. We really don’t know who Matt Arnold is as a GM yet. Last offseason, he floored me with the Contreras trade. This offseason hasn’t really started yet and the one move that happened - Counsell - probably didn’t have much to do with the front office. That situation felt like the rare situation where Attanasio was steering the ship and that’s not a situation that will arise often.

I’ll likely have a more formed opinion in mid-February. 

[Frisbee Slider]

We could conceivably receive better contributions from every offensive position in 2024 compared to 2023.

[shanedog19]

This may be an unpopular opinion, but I think the franchise should retool/rebuild next year. I think we'll have a hard time competing without Burnes, Woodruff, and Miley in the rotation in 2024. I would trade Burnes this offseason for the best possible haul. I would also look to trade Yelich and get whatever we can for him, while opening up a spot for one of the younger players. I would add a young manager who will be patient and grow with a young roster. The team has a lot of holes to fill, and I would do it organically through the draft and trades, and not through free agency. That is the direction I would like to see the franchise go.

[LouisEly]

12 hours ago, TPlush said:

Trading an elite closer at the trade deadline while leading the division, to save money on payroll.

Eh, I think it was more about two things:

1. Inconsistency from said closer leading up to the trade deadline (1.9 HR/9 that season, >4 ERA, going from 1.05 ERA at the beginning of July to 4.34 at the end), coupled with
2. Not letting assets expire

#2 is why I think that the Brewers will trade Burnes. 

[owbc]

It feels like a sharp transition from what now is the abrupt end of the Stearns/Counsell era. And I think we can put it in the books as "good but not great". 

It remains to be seen if the competitive advantage from the pitching lab will fade as it gets copied or if our pitching dominance will continue. 

Chourio is the other wild card -- we haven't had a true impact bat since Braun retired and Yelich hurt his back. If we're about to enter the Chourio era our fortunes could change for the better.  

 

[SF70]

3 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

We could conceivably receive better contributions from every offensive position in 2024 compared to 2023.

Exactly.

The sophomores should all improve. Our 2 best hitting prospects are poised to enter next year’s lineup at some point, probably sooner than later.

I’m betting on a big year from Adames and good year’s again from Yelich-Contreras.

 

[Samurai Bucky]

21 minutes ago, owbc said:

It remains to be seen if the competitive advantage from the pitching lab will fade as it gets copied or if our pitching dominance will continue. 

My son worked with the Cubs Director of Hitting, Justin Stone.  The pitching lab is similar in nature to what Justin has already set up with hitting.  Not sure where that will end up, but I think the entire organization will be better.

Perhaps Mark A. can hire Justin away from the Cubs?

[Frisbee Slider]

Going into next season, I’m not sure if the Cubs are better than the Brewers at any position, as of this moment. Plus, I would rather have Milwaukee’s rotation and bullpen, too.

Upon further reflection, Nico Horner at 2B is much better than Turang/Monasterio.

[SeaBass]

Ken Rosenthal posted an article today in The Athletic (paywall) suggesting the Brewers might be looking to rebuild.

Some excerpts:

Quote

"Rebuilding might be the new market inefficiency. Only the Oakland A’s and Washington Nationals were in that mode last season. The Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals might have looked like it, but didn’t necessarily see themselves that way.

A relatively thin free-agent class presents opportunity for a team willing to sacrifice its present for the future. And the Milwaukee Brewers, after losing manager Craig Counsell, seemingly are willing to deploy such a strategy."

Quote

 

"[Some] sources, briefed on the Brewers’ discussions but not authorized to discuss them publicly, say the team is open to moving virtually any player on its roster."

"Brewers owner Mark Attanasio has said in the past he opposes a complete rebuild. But at this point, does the team have much choice? Burnes and Woodruff are goners. Williams almost certainly will be after 2025, and the Brewers traded their previous closer, Josh Hader, when he was under club control for one-plus seasons. If they followed the same time frame with Williams, they would trade him at this year’s deadline.

The breakup of this team is inevitable. It’s just a matter of how proactive the Brewers want to be in moving the process along."

 

The article also predictably mentions Adames and Yelich as trade pieces, obviously Adames being the more likely to be traded since Yelich has the big contract and no trade clause.

None of this is really a surprise, we know that the option is to either sell now or go all in on one more season to compete for a championship, which Rosenthal also references in his article. The newsworthy part is that his sources (if you trust them) are indicating that the Brewers appear to be exploring the sell now option.

[jay87shot]

I think we should always go into the offseason that everyone is always available. If someone offered us a top 10 prospcet and like 3 top 100 guys they could have Chourio or whomever they want.  To me the Athletic report is basically a nice/easy way to tell Yeli and there league that he is available. I doubt when it says everyone is available that means full rebuild, just we are open to trade our vets. I can't see us trading Peralta, Contreras, or any of the young rookies/prospects.

[Playing Catch]

I felt differently before the Woodruff injury and Counsell leaving, but now, the fan in me would actually enjoy a refresh of the team. The "faces" of the franchise the last few seasons have been Counsell, Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Stearns, Devin, Yelich. I think it may be refreshing and exciting to do a rebuild. And for the record, I don't mean that means we won't be competitive. I think the Brewers WILL be competitive even without any of thoses faces. Certainly not favorites, but with players that can be brought back in trades along with all of the young talent the organization has amassed allows for a new chapter in the Attanasio era. Let's bring in a fresh-faced, positive and energetic manager to grow with the players and look to go back to winning division titles in 2025.

[wildcat2237]

6 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I felt differently before the Woodruff injury and Counsell leaving, but now, the fan in me would actually enjoy a refresh of the team. The "faces" of the franchise the last few seasons have been Counsell, Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Stearns, Devin, Yelich. I think it may be refreshing and exciting to do a rebuild. And for the record, I don't mean that means we won't be competitive. I think the Brewers WILL be competitive even without any of thoses faces. Certainly not favorites, but with players that can be brought back in trades along with all of the young talent the organization has amassed allows for a new chapter in the Attanasio era. Let's bring in a fresh-faced, positive and energetic manager to grow with the players and look to go back to winning division titles in 2025.

This is precisely how I feel.  The term "re-build" is a bit sensitive around here. I'm not sure it really would be a full "re-build" with our top ranked farm system. Instead, the team would likely take a step back in 2024(but not be terrible) and then be ready to win the division in 2025. More of a quick "re-tool." The key is that the Burns/Williams/Adames/Peralta trades would need to be done right and net the right mix of near major league ready talent and low minors talent. 

[MrTPlush]

6 minutes ago, wildcat2237 said:

This is precisely how I feel.  The term "re-build" is a bit sensitive around here. I'm not sure it really would be a full "re-build" with our top ranked farm system. Instead, the team would likely take a step back in 2024(but not be terrible) and then be ready to win the division in 2025. More of a quick "re-tool." The key is that the Burns/Williams/Adames/Peralta trades would need to be done right and net the right mix of near major league ready talent and low minors talent. 

I get the division isn't a powerhouse and it doesn't take much to make the postseason at this point...but to think we are going to implode the roster and then be chugging along looking at division titles in 2025 is Mt Everest level optimism. 

People expecting a quick turnaround like last time, just two short years of bad baseball before thrusting into success again truly don't appreciate how much had to go right for that to happen. Even that took two years and even the Cubs needed two years to reset things before barely getting to .500 this year. Which they have the benefit of money to buy impact FAs. 

It could happen...but that is quite a long shot. You are probably looking at '26 or even '27 depending on how the offense actually turns out. We have a lot of nice prospects, but hardly can't miss guys (minus Chourio) on offense. That is asking for a lot of rookies and 2nd year guys to go sprinting out of the gates. Where is the starting rotation in '25? Your theory bombs the whole thing.

[Playing Catch]

1 minute ago, MrTPlush said:

People expecting a quick turnaround like last time, just two short years of bad baseball before thrusting into success again truly don't appreciate how much had to go right for that to happen

You are correct that there are no guarantees, but the choices are essentially to give it one more 'go' in 2024 with Burnes/Williams leading the charge, and THEN doing a soft rebuild in 2025/2026 (w/o the players Burnes/Williams would get back in a trade), or to begin the process a year earlier. In my opinion, I think I would prefer trading Burnes and Williams this offseason to really try and maximize the return. I'm indifferent towards Adames.

The reason I prefer this now, is that going into next season with nothing new except some manager, smacks of desperation to 'win now,' rather than trusting that this franchise has now built a strong enough foundation that it can do roster churns and still compete, like Tampa Bay has done.

IMO, it's either now, or next off-season. Without Woody and Counsell, it just seems like the timing is right. In addition, I think that the jolt of fresh faces and youthful energy and feel would help fans get rid of the bitter taste of playoff failure since 2018.

It's been a historically strong run for this franchise, but I'm ready to turn the page.

[tmwiese55]

Agree.   Losing these two ace pitchers is very huge.  And in such a move Williams should be traded too.  You're essentially losing your 3 best players.   Even assuming you do well on the trades it will take really amazing luck to turn a complete blank slate of starting pitching after Peralta to the playoffs in just one year.   Its not like the O is all of a sudden gonna become top level to balance it out either.

Don't get me wrong, I do generally agree with the strategy just discussed. And I do agree its not like they'll bottom out to true 'rebuild/tank' type level so it won't be as painful.  But with how light the minors is in ready pitching it will take a ton of luck to replace the pitching so quickly.   Being in a crap division does give some glimmer of hope though as putting together a .500 team that happens to get luck to win like 88 games could win the division. 

[wildcat2237]

14 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I get the division isn't a powerhouse and it doesn't take much to make the postseason at this point...but to think we are going to implode the roster and then be chugging along looking at division titles in 2025 is Mt Everest level optimism. 

People expecting a quick turnaround like last time, just two short years of bad baseball before thrusting into success again truly don't appreciate how much had to go right for that to happen. Even that took two years and even the Cubs needed two years to reset things before barely getting to .500 this year. Which they have the benefit of money to buy impact FAs. 

It could happen...but that is quite a long shot. You are probably looking at '26 or even '27 depending on how the offense actually turns out. We have a lot of nice prospects, but hardly can't miss guys (minus Chourio) on offense. That is asking for a lot of rookies and 2nd year guys to go sprinting out of the gates. Where is the starting rotation in '25? Your theory bombs the whole thing.

You might be right. However, I would be counting on the Burnes/Williams/Peralta trades to bring in some bigtime players on the verge on breaking into the MLB. 

I dont think its completely unrealistic where we already have Mitchell, Frelick, Contreras. Then you add in Chourio/Black/Gasser/Misiorowski and maybe 3-4 players added in trades. Clearling salary would allow for 3-4 FA signings as necessary. 

[MrTPlush]

1 minute ago, Playing Catch said:

You are correct that there are no guarantees, but the choices are essentially to give it one more 'go' in 2024 with Burnes/Williams leading the charge, and THEN doing a soft rebuild in 2025/2026 (w/o the players Burnes/Williams would get back in a trade), or to begin the process a year earlier. In my opinion, I think I would prefer trading Burnes and Williams this offseason to really try and maximize the return. I'm indifferent towards Adames.

 

Oh, I totally agree. Regardless of how long it ends up taking, I would just blow it up. I thought that was a legitimate option last offseason. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

A team that wins their division with a bottom 10 offense probably shouldn't look to tear it all down and start from scratch - significant deck chair reshuffling should definitely be on the table, though.  They got very little from Woodruff in 2023 on the mound and still wound up being the best team in the NL Central by a comfortable margin.

I think Burnes gets dealt this offseason only if the Brewers get a crazy offer, otherwise they've got the payroll flexibility to pay him whatever arbitration dictates and see how things unfold through June .  If they are out of it, they'll trade Burnes and potentially Williams for a haul at the deadline - otherwise if they're on top of the division again they'll add pieces and hope to get hot at the right time.  If anyone offers something of longterm value for Adames, I think he's gone this offseason, too.

One thing I hope the Brewers do change is shifting the roster building emphasis away from run prevention/defensive versatility at least a bit in hopes of building a better offensive position player roster.  This team can make a bunch of changes internally by giving more prospects who have earned their MLB turn a shot - Black, Chourio, Gasser, Quero - and lean on additional production from guys like Mitchell, Turang, Frelick with continued development/health.  I think keeping Wiemer in Milwaukee all season long without burning an option last season sets up pretty well for them to start him off in AAA next season and keep him there until he figures some things out with his swing in 2024 - or he's part of a trade package this offseason.

Looking at the rest of the NL Central - yeah the Brewers are still in the best position to win this division next year on paper at this moment - particularly with the impact talent they could add to their 40 man roster internally in terms of prospects that will be knocking on the MLB door next spring to supplement what is still a pretty talented MLB roster.  I fully expect the Cubs to go nuts this offseason trying to fill holes via free agency, and I can see the Cardinals making some significant pitching staff moves to quickly pull themselves out of the cellar, too.  The Reds, with healthy pitching, are going to be a problem next year - and I think they have the highest ceiling without making any moves to add to what they already have on their 40 man.