Divisional Round: Packers @ 49ers - Saturday, Jan 20th 7:15pm (Fox)

[HarryDoyle]

On 1/18/2024 at 8:47 AM, BrewerFan said:

Ah...that should have been obvious being as it was in Candlestick. 

Good call. Anyway, that was still a massive game for us. Knocking off SF when it was viewed as a two-team race over those 4 years. SF's  last win with Montana, then NYG, Washington...and then I think it was Dallas for two, SF knocked them off with Deion(and their cap punishments) and then won it again...that year.

 

And it seemed like every game started the same way. GB would score. Dallas would score(or maybe we'd jump out to a two-score lead). Then at some point, usually a pivotal point, Favre would throw a pick, Dallas would score, get the ball back at half, score, they'd have the lead and then it was 5 yards before anyone could touch Emmitt! And if you DID get them in 3rd and long, Irvin or Harper was gonna get one. BUT if you just happened to double them, then Novachek would beat you down the seem!

And Jerry tries to argue this team is as talented as that one. 3-4 legit HOF caliber players on that OL(Erik Williams was as good of a RT as I've seen, Larry Allen was a top 10 all-time OL, and Newton was a freak-freak athlete). I think Barry goes for 3K a couple of years with that offense!

 

Anyway, good catch. The Catch 2, the one that should have been a Rice fumble, was in SF as well, correct? I think it was, but...don't care to go look it up right now. 

I would argue that the Packers were the better team in 1995, at least by the time they played the game.

[brewcrewdue80]

With Jones, the Packers offense is better on the field than SF in terms of Weapons.  The Musgrave play happened because of 2 consecutive  positive runs by Jones set up play action that showed what play action does after being set up properly.  Jones has been this type of RB but not used enough over his career with Dillon stealing multiple drives of him ever seeing the field. As  a whole GB +13pts on offense this game.

Defense. How well does Purdy and Kittle work vs how does Walker play if ever responsible vs Kittle.(or Deebo for that matter)  Sustained drives that keep GBs offense off the field equal pts gained by SF. Keep them at or below 50pct 3rd down we win. 60+ well then

 

ST.  Carlson misses XP weekly and FGs. GB will lose because of him then.

 

29pts-loss. 31-34 win.

[Sixtolezcano]

3 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:.

Defense. How well does Purdy and Kittle work vs how does Walker play if ever responsible vs Kittle.(or Deebo for that matter)  Sustained drives that keep GBs offense off the field equal pts gained by SF. Keep them at or below 50pct 3rd down we win. 60+ well then

 

ST.  Carlson misses XP weekly and FGs. GB will lose because of him then.

 

29pts-loss. 31-34 win.

I don’t follow what you are attempting to say. Please clean up syntax to make your post more understandable.

[HarveysWBs]

6 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

With Jones, the Packers offense is better on the field than SF in terms of Weapons.  The Musgrave play happened because of 2 consecutive  positive runs by Jones set up play action that showed what play action does after being set up properly.  Jones has been this type of RB but not used enough over his career with Dillon stealing multiple drives of him ever seeing the field. As  a whole GB +13pts on offense this game.

Defense. How well does Purdy and Kittle work vs how does Walker play if ever responsible vs Kittle.(or Deebo for that matter)  Sustained drives that keep GBs offense off the field equal pts gained by SF. Keep them at or below 50pct 3rd down we win. 60+ well then

 

ST.  Carlson misses XP weekly and FGs. GB will lose because of him then.

 

29pts-loss. 31-34 win.

I’m mostly with you here, though I’m not sure what you mean when you say our offense is +13 in this game. We’re playing hot, so I’d say we’re getting closer to parity on that side of the ball, but the Niners scored 120 more points than we did in the regular season. To say our offense is superior on the road by nearly two touchdowns is a screaming hot take—though I’d love that to be true.

On defense, we’ve got our work cut out for us.  I think Walker will be a key contributor, but it’s all hands on deck.  I expect any weaknesses to be exploited, so look for the Niners to try and get Walker playing apprehensively, Nixon to be overly aggressive, and to get Ballentine one on one with any of their physical freak pass catchers.  Jaire playing will be huge.  But most of all, the front seven must have a clear win over the Niners o-line—they aren’t the absolute road-graders they used to be, and we need to more than hold our own in the trenches to take this one.

Carlson…I’ve just baked a miss into the cake every game. It is what it is at this point, so the mindset is you have to win by at least two.

Overall, I like the idea that if the offense gets into the mid-thirties, we have a really good shot, but then it’s down to the defense and special teams avoiding catastrophe.

[brewcrewdue80]

48 minutes ago, HarveysWBs said:

I’m mostly with you here, though I’m not sure what you mean when you say our offense is +13 in this game. We’re playing hot, so I’d say we’re getting closer to parity on that side of the ball, but the Niners scored 120 more points than we did in the regular season. To say our offense is superior on the road by nearly two touchdowns is a screaming hot take—though I’d love that to be true.

Overall, I like the idea that if the offense gets into the mid-thirties, we have a really good shot, but then it’s down to the defense and special teams avoiding catastrophe.

We are at the beginning of watching the greatest show on turf part 2. With 2 Kittles at TE.  And if Jones remains in a Packers uniform 2-3 more seasons. What I mean by +13 pts is give us SF defense this team is 13pts better than SF's offense with it. 

 

1 hour ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I don’t follow what you are attempting to say. Please clean up syntax to make your post more understandable.

I'm sorry. I write like I'm conversating this in my head.  

Small summary. We score 29-32pts. San Fran scores 24-28. 

The +13pt comment is explained above.  Just like Dallas, people give credit to winning teams offense and are ignoring a better team offensively will score more points, taking more time off the clock for said offense juggernaut to score what is expected of them. Ignore comparisons the first 8games of the season. Compare for last 9 games of season. That's the matchup here.  Gotta imagine the numbers are a different story than the 17game season shows.  

[BrewerFan]

11 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

I would argue that the Packers were the better team in 1995, at least by the time they played the game.

It's not a crazy argument. I don't think they were as good yet. That Dallas team still had their best OL, Harper and then the big 3. 

But that was a 27-24 game and that includes Favre throwing a pick after the Packers got a big stop but were pinned back inside their own 10. And then at 31-27 in the 3rd/4th(I was ~10 when this game played, but I remember it pretty clearly)...he threw a 1st down pick that either Teague or Brown took back inside the 20 that led to the final score. 38-27.

So just a cleaner game from Favre and maybe they win it. 

Though...Dallas did have 8 pro-bowlers on offense, multiple APs and Erik Williams, back from injury, was not one of them(though he was arguably their best).

The Packers had the best player on each side of the ball(even with Emmitt and Deion). But that Dallas OL and DL were just dominant. 

By the way, just as a side note, what's the first thing everyone thinks of when they think of what Deion COULDN'T(or wouldn't) do? He somehow got this reputation for not being a hitter, but he could lay the wood early in his career. He was a solid sized CB(especially for that era). I remember watching something with Switzer told him to be LESS physical in the run game as they were using him as a CB, WR, KR, PR and he was...Deion. 

 

Anyway, I view the 49ers as similar to those Cowboys teams at the moment. They've had our number. I still think they're physically superior, BUT I also feel like we've got a shot and we're ascending(though I don't really seem the 49ers descending anytime soon...thank god for that Lance trade or they could have Parsons+2 1sts and a 3rd on their roster).

[BrewerFan]

11 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

With Jones, the Packers offense is better on the field than SF in terms of Weapons. 

No shot. Weapons? The Packers offense is incredibly young and talented...but SF has 5 players who are among the best at their positions. Future rankings...eh, maybe. Young talent, no question. Weapons right now? You're grossly underestimating the Niners.

First I'll start by saying I think Purdy is a nice QB. Not a great QB. I think Cousins is a better QB. He's more mobile, but he's not as talented as the top 10-14 QBs in the NFL. It's his talent and the scheme that make him look so damn good.

They're better at TE. Kittle is the best TE in the NFL. Trent Williams, best LT. McCaffery, best RB. Brandon Aiyuk, an AP WRer. Deebo, one of the most dangerous playmakers in the game. They can line up Deebo in the backfield and run as effectively as any RB, McCaffery can lineup at the X and be the best WRer on the field. 

That's not accounting for Kyle Juszcyk an AP FB this year and he's been named to 8 straight pro-bowls.

These are proven WRers, TEs...and they've got depth at RB. Mitchell is a change of pace back and similar to Mosert with elite speed.

 

I love the Packers YOUNG weapons, I think they're a piece or two away from becoming great...but they are young weapons. It's nice getting a big game from Doubs after having 0 catches the previous game or having Wicks have such a surprisingly good rookie year or Kraft coming in and adding a physical style of run after the catch while Musgrave gets down the seem...but combined, they produced about 70% of what Kittle did this year. 

SF has two WRers in their prime who've are #1's or in Deebo's case, if you want to argue he's not a true #1 X WRer, that's fine, he's a perfect player in that scheme.

 

Where we can get San Fran is their OL. Namely their IOL. Clark, Wyatt and Slaton should be able to feat and the pass rushers(minus Slaton, add Brooks and to a degree Wooden) and they could really make Purdy uncomfortable. Get pressure up the middle, get Purdy off his spot, get your edge rushers to maintain their pass-rushing lanes so Purdy can't extend plays. He IS pretty good at that, he's not "just" a system QB who checks the ball down, but they have guys running open so much, it's like the Packers vs the Cowboys. So the pass rush needs to come to play. I'd like to see LVN and Smith playing more on their Right Side(so over Trent Williams). LVN at least is physical enough that he won't allow Williams to blow him off the ball and then get to the next level. He's basically the sacrificial lamb. 

Hopefully you see the Packers playing a lot of different schemes, but a lot of base and when they do go to nickel, you'll need to put Jaire/Valentine on an Island on occasion and use Savage as that robber and Quay/Campbell can cover the middle of the field. With Cmac and those option routes, Kittle down the seem and then just the similar concepts we run with a lot of mesh routes and crossers, some inverted C2 with the backers getting good drops, C1 Robber or Cover 3 match could force Purdy to hold the ball a bit(and hopefully allow the pass rush to get home. 

 

It's gonna be a LOT of fun though. The SF offense vs the Packers Defense is obviously a mis-match on Paper, but I'm confident MLF can add enough input...given they run very similar schemes and that we can get a few timely sacks at big moments that the offense should have a chance. 

 

WE need 2 turnovers, we need to not turn the ball over and we need long drives in which we don't allow Bosa/Young./Hargraves to get us behind the sticks. 

 

Oh, and if Rasheed Walker wants to prove me wrong(and I caught just absolute hell for suggesting in a Packers "needs" discussion on Twitter that LT should be our top priority) and prove he's more than just a good LT FOR a 7th rd pick and someone who wasn't expected to start this year...I'd be absolutely thrilled. 

[homer]

Looks like it's gonna rain the whole game. 

[adambr2]

26 minutes ago, homer said:

Looks like it's gonna rain the whole game. 

I can't decide if that's a good thing or a bad thing....although I tend to think of any neutralizing element as an advantage for the underdog. 

[homer]

28 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I can't decide if that's a good thing or a bad thing....although I tend to think of any neutralizing element as an advantage for the underdog. 

Yeah I have heard Purdy is bad with a wet ball. Who knows. 

Jordan Love has 10.5" hands.

Purdy has 9.25" hands.

Packers by 30!

[GAME05]

Rain makes me think the SF's dink-dunk passing game would be less effected than Love's already so-so accuracy. Is Dillon able to play, because I'd love him to get 20 carries on a muddy field. Might be interesting to see if both teams' stronger WRs can get some missed tackles and CB slips in the mud.

Watched a film breakdown of Quay Walker from the Cowboys game. He'll be playing in Hawai'i a lot in his career.

[brewcrewdue80]

13 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

No shot. Weapons? The Packers offense is incredibly young and talented...but SF has 5 players who are among the best at their positions. Future rankings...eh, maybe. Young talent, no question. Weapons right now? You're grossly underestimating the Niners.

First I'll start by saying I think Purdy is a nice QB. Not a great QB. I think Cousins is a better QB. He's more mobile, but he's not as talented as the top 10-14 QBs in the NFL. It's his talent and the scheme that make him look so damn good.

They're better at TE. Kittle is the best TE in the NFL. Trent Williams, best LT. McCaffery, best RB. Brandon Aiyuk, an AP WRer. Deebo, one of the most dangerous playmakers in the game. They can line up Deebo in the backfield and run as effectively as any RB, McCaffery can lineup at the X and be the best WRer on the field. 

That's not accounting for Kyle Juszcyk an AP FB this year and he's been named to 8 straight pro-bowls.

These are proven WRers, TEs...and they've got depth at RB. Mitchell is a change of pace back and similar to Mosert with elite speed.

 

I love the Packers YOUNG weapons, I think they're a piece or two away from becoming great...but they are young weapons. It's nice getting a big game from Doubs after having 0 catches the previous game or having Wicks have such a surprisingly good rookie year or Kraft coming in and adding a physical style of run after the catch while Musgrave gets down the seem...but combined, they produced about 70% of what Kittle did this year. 

SF has two WRers in their prime who've are #1's or in Deebo's case, if you want to argue he's not a true #1 X WRer, that's fine, he's a perfect player in that scheme.

 

Where we can get San Fran is their OL. Namely their IOL. Clark, Wyatt and Slaton should be able to feat and the pass rushers(minus Slaton, add Brooks and to a degree Wooden) and they could really make Purdy uncomfortable. Get pressure up the middle, get Purdy off his spot, get your edge rushers to maintain their pass-rushing lanes so Purdy can't extend plays. He IS pretty good at that, he's not "just" a system QB who checks the ball down, but they have guys running open so much, it's like the Packers vs the Cowboys. So the pass rush needs to come to play. I'd like to see LVN and Smith playing more on their Right Side(so over Trent Williams). LVN at least is physical enough that he won't allow Williams to blow him off the ball and then get to the next level. He's basically the sacrificial lamb. 

Hopefully you see the Packers playing a lot of different schemes, but a lot of base and when they do go to nickel, you'll need to put Jaire/Valentine on an Island on occasion and use Savage as that robber and Quay/Campbell can cover the middle of the field. With Cmac and those option routes, Kittle down the seem and then just the similar concepts we run with a lot of mesh routes and crossers, some inverted C2 with the backers getting good drops, C1 Robber or Cover 3 match could force Purdy to hold the ball a bit(and hopefully allow the pass rush to get home. 

 

It's gonna be a LOT of fun though. The SF offense vs the Packers Defense is obviously a mis-match on Paper, but I'm confident MLF can add enough input...given they run very similar schemes and that we can get a few timely sacks at big moments that the offense should have a chance. 

 

WE need 2 turnovers, we need to not turn the ball over and we need long drives in which we don't allow Bosa/Young./Hargraves to get us behind the sticks. 

 

Oh, and if Rasheed Walker wants to prove me wrong(and I caught just absolute hell for suggesting in a Packers "needs" discussion on Twitter that LT should be our top priority) and prove he's more than just a good LT FOR a 7th rd pick and someone who wasn't expected to start this year...I'd be absolutely thrilled. 

 

Weapons. Reed, Watson, Wicks, Doubs, Musgrave, and Kraft.  Ignore who may actually be the better player in the field, Jones.  Count those up?  7.  I'll take a 2nd TE over a FB.  I mean how many teams run offenses that employ a FB to make a difference these days? (24 FBs in entire nfl) 

Both Kraft/Musgrave missed games besides being rookies. But they have emerged as every bit the Kittle problem defenses need to plan for. Times 2 when on the field at same time. FB? Give me that. 

Deebo I'll give you credit is better than any GB puts on the field today for WR/RB weapon.  Still needs the QB to get them the ball. 

Jones is heavily disregarded how great he is.  He's a top 3 RB in the NFL who doesn't get the ball enough or stay healthy to, to rack up the numbers.  He has a 5ypc average for his career. I think looking at CMC #s this was his 1st Year doing that.  

Love is playing to MLF's script vs Rodgers who took the play out of Jones hands multiple times scripted for him to run. You're seeing 4 straight games over 100yards what a weapon Jones can be weekly(without a fullback)

[Joseph Zarr]

4 hours ago, GAME05 said:

Rain makes me think the SF's dink-dunk passing game would be less effected than Love's already so-so accuracy.

You do realize, Love has completed 69.12% of his passes since 11/5? That's 61.11 % of this 2023 season. That's top 5 in the NFL. This includes his second worst performance of his season @ Pittsburgh. You may want to rethink the 'so-so accuracy' comment unless, of course, you demand 70% over a season? Regardless, I think he's demonstrated he has reached new heights as a passer in the NF of L.

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 hours ago, GAME05 said:

Rain makes me think the SF's dink-dunk passing game would be less effected than Love's already so-so accuracy. Is Dillon able to play, because I'd love him to get 20 carries on a muddy field. Might be interesting to see if both teams' stronger WRs can get some missed tackles and CB slips in the mud.

Watched a film breakdown of Quay Walker from the Cowboys game. He'll be playing in Hawai'i a lot in his career.

The key is to take away as much of the dink and dunk passing game away from the 49ers - they still have weapons on the outside, but force Purdy to have to make longer, lower percentage throws outside the hashes to move the chains....particularly with a wet football.

A soggy track negates the advantage the 49ers have had resting the past few weeks, and likely slows down that 1st step off the snap by their Dline....keeping their defensive front from wrecking the game is a necessity for the Packers to have a shot, so I say let it rain like crazy.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Weapons. Reed, Watson, Wicks, Doubs, Musgrave, and Kraft.  Ignore who may actually be the better player in the field, Jones.  Count those up?  7.  I'll take a 2nd TE over a FB.  I mean how many teams run offenses that employ a FB to make a difference these days? (24 FBs in entire nfl) 

San Fran employs a FB...and they employ him exceptionally well. He's a play maker for that team. He's also more of an H-Back than a FB IMO, but whatever...

That isn't and wasn't why I said I thought SF had more weapons. I don't think any team in the NFL has more weapons than SF. Miami may have been close, but they don't have the RB/TE combo. 

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

 

Both Kraft/Musgrave missed games besides being rookies. But they have emerged as every bit the Kittle problem defenses need to plan for. Times 2 when on the field at same time. FB? Give me that. 

Are we talking about other teams needing to account for a player or who's the better "weapon" right now?

Yes, SF will have to game plan for Musgrave, Kraft...even Deguara. Why? Becauase they have to game plan for everyone...and they do. 

Still, George Kittle is a HOF TE, one of the best ever, an elite blocker and pass catcher and he's just simply better at this point.

Doesn't mean we can't win. I just do not see how you can say the Packers have better weapons than SF. You're saying the Packers have the best weapons in the NFL and it's not particularly close. 

 

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Deebo I'll give you credit is better than any GB puts on the field today for WR/RB weapon.  Still needs the QB to get them the ball. 

Deebo is their #2 WRer also. Brandon Ayiuk....who I actually believe we were trading up for when we picked Love...in what could be one of the great all-time draft day stories if true, he's become a true #1.

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Jones is heavily disregarded how great he is.  He's a top 3 RB in the NFL who doesn't get the ball enough or stay healthy to, to rack up the numbers.  He has a 5ypc average for his career. I think looking at CMC #s this was his 1st Year doing that.  

By who? Aaron Jones is AWESOME. He's a great player. He's one of the most unselfish players. He took less money to stay in GB. He took a paycut after a good year to come BACK to GB. It's Jones and Ahman Green for the best back since the Lombardi era IMO. 

McCaffery is the best RB in the NFL though and he's an elite receiver.  You think I'm discounting the Packers here? I'm not. This is about the 49ers and the challenge we face.

2 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Love is playing to MLF's script vs Rodgers who took the play out of Jones hands multiple times scripted for him to run. You're seeing 4 straight games over 100yards what a weapon Jones can be weekly(without a fullback)

A-You're strangly obsessed with this FB thing. And we do...we play with Degurara. We drafted him HOPING he'd be able to do the things Juice does in San Fran. He hasn't been able to. But he's effectively a FB.

Also, just to be clear, we ran the ball more the last three years with Rodgers than we did this year.

So this whole "Rodgers took the ball out of Jones hands," it's not only irrelevant IMO to this discussion, but it's become a bit too fashionable to trash Rodgers on the field performance while in GB. 

[BrewerFan]

37 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

You do realize, Love has completed 69.12% of his passes since 11/5? That's 61.11 % of this 2023 season. That's top 5 in the NFL. This includes his second worst performance of his season @ Pittsburgh. You may want to rethink the 'so-so accuracy' comment unless, of course, you demand 70% over a season? Regardless, I think he's demonstrated he has reached new heights as a passer in the NF of L.

Even when we had a lot of incompletions, it was because of the Packers' youth and a lot of downfield passing.

Though to be fair, the 49ers "dink and dunk," offense is a pretty big misnomer as well. Purdy is #1 in Air yards per pass. 

 

But Love's proven his accuracy is not just good, it's elite. The wind and rain is going to hurt anyone's accuracy. BUT, I'll take the QB with the stronger arm to cut through the elements. We've got that. 

[young guns]

I do worry about the elements hurting the passing game.  Kind of like with Rodgers I felt better about our chances with better weather.  But at least the weather should hurt them as well.  I guess time will tell who it hurts more.

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I can't decide if that's a good thing or a bad thing....although I tend to think of any neutralizing element as an advantage for the underdog. 

I guess it should be better for the Packers. I go back to the QB and arm strength. Love has better arm strength than Purdy.

This has been SF's worst run-blocking OL(still ranked 10th). It's hard to say. SF throws it down the field even more than we do, but they're just as capable of throwing WR screens to Deebo or McCaffery(maybe a shot for Jaire to jump one?).

I think it'll come down to Wyatt, Brooks, Slaton all playing well along with Kenny Clark and hopefully Gary can duplicate his last playoff performance vs SF. I think it was 3 sacks, at least 1 FF. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Good luck fans. I think the buck stops here but hopefully this isn't a 3-hour nap situation. 

[HarryDoyle]

Nice methodical drive to start the game. Too bad we couldn't get seven out of it.

[yourout]

Seven would have been nice but still a good start.

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Got 3 points on the long opening drive. Not quite perfect, but always good to take a lead in a road game. 

[yourout]

I think it goes without saying that this is going to be a much tougher defense to face then the cowboys was

[worm81]

No Savage!

[HarryDoyle]

OH SAVAGE!! 

That should've been another pick six.