Disappointing HOF election again

[nate82]

Another disappointing HOF vote today.  How do you vote Joe Mauer and Todd Helton in but not Billy Wagner?

[Axman59]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

Another disappointing HOF vote today.  How do you vote Joe Mauer and Todd Helton in but not Billy Wagner?

It's pretty easy actually.

Todd Helton - 61.8 WAR

Joe Mauer - 55.2 WAR

Billy Wagner - 27.7 WAR

One of these is not like the other two.

[nate82]

5 minutes ago, Axman59 said:

It's pretty easy actually.

Todd Helton - 61.8 WAR

Joe Mauer - 55.2 WAR

Billy Wagner - 27.7 WAR

One of these is not like the other two.

You do know Wagner was a relief pitcher? Right?

HOF that are around Billy Wagner's 27.7 WAR:

Trevor Hoffman 28.0

Rollie Fingers 25.6

Bruce Sutter 24.1

Lee Smith 28.9

Unless you are willing to admit Hoffman, Sutter and Fingers shouldn't be in the HOF sure Wagner then doesn't qualify.

[MrTPlush]

If Todd Helton gets in, just put in the PED guys too. Crazy

[Axman59]

55 minutes ago, nate82 said:

You do know Wagner was a relief pitcher? Right?

HOF that are around Billy Wagner's 27.7 WAR:

Trevor Hoffman 28.0

Rollie Fingers 25.6

Bruce Sutter 24.1

Lee Smith 28.9

Unless you are willing to admit Hoffman, Sutter and Fingers shouldn't be in the HOF sure Wagner then doesn't qualify.

If Hoffman, Fingers, Sutter, or Smith got in on this ballot you might have a point. Mauer and Helton are clearly superior to Wagner. It defies no logic for Mauer and Helton to get in on this ballot and for Wagner to not get in.

[owbc]

If you’re not a first ballot, it takes time to build up the votes. That’s the fun of HOF ballot tracking which keeps us entertained in the offseason.
 

Wagner will be in next year. 

[HarryDoyle]

I think we're all forgetting what's really important. Gary Sheffield failed to get in on his final year of eligibility. Heart wrenching news.

[Outlander]

I always look at the guys that didn't even get 5%. If Matt Holiday and Adrian Gonzalez can't reach it, then it is looking pretty likely that Braun doesn't get there next year.

[folly412]

I both hate and love the Baseball HOF difficulty.  That there are obvious greats omitted is frustrating.  But the Football HOF is the other extreme and seems to let everyone in.

[Frisbee Slider]

23 minutes ago, folly412 said:

But the Football HOF is the other extreme and seems to let everyone in.

The NFL does not want needless disparities between good players and bad players. All players should have an equal chance at entering HOF.

[owbc]

2 hours ago, Outlander said:

I always look at the guys that didn't even get 5%. If Matt Holiday and Adrian Gonzalez can't reach it, then it is looking pretty likely that Braun doesn't get there next year.

Maybe a Milwaukee writer will give him a sympathy vote.

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, nate82 said:

You do know Wagner was a relief pitcher? Right?

HOF that are around Billy Wagner's 27.7 WAR:

Trevor Hoffman 28.0

Rollie Fingers 25.6

Bruce Sutter 24.1

Lee Smith 28.9

Unless you are willing to admit Hoffman, Sutter and Fingers shouldn't be in the HOF sure Wagner then doesn't qualify.

Joe Nathan is roughly the equivalent to Wagner and was out on the first ballot, IIRC.

I'm not saying Wagner shouldn't get in, just pointing out the weirdness of HoF voting preferences.

And I think it's pretty clear Mauer and Helton (ignoring his personal issues) are a step above Wagner's career.

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Joe Nathan is roughly the equivalent to Wagner and was out on the first ballot, IIRC.

I'm not saying Wagner shouldn't get in, just pointing out the weirdness of HoF voting preferences.

And I think it's pretty clear Mauer and Helton (ignoring his personal issues) are a step above Wagner's career.

I get you’re also a Twins fan but saying Nathan is the equivalent to Wagner is just flat out not close to reality. Wagner is one of the best RP ever. 
 

Wagner had a 54 ERA- and 63 FIP- for his career.

Nathan had a 67 ERA- and 79 FIP- for his career.

On a rate basis Wagner is the 2nd best RP in MLB history behind Rivera. Nathan isn’t even close to that class.

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I get you’re also a Twins fan but saying Nathan is the equivalent to Wagner is just flat out not close to reality. Wagner is one of the best RP ever. 

Wagner had a 54 ERA- and 63 FIP- for his career.

Nathan had a 67 ERA- and 79 FIP- for his career.

On a rate basis Wagner is the 2nd best RP in MLB history behind Rivera. Nathan isn’t even close to that class.

Wagner definitely had better ERA and FIP but they pitched the same innings, had very similar WARs, and their WPA are almost identical (Nathan's a hair better, actually). They're closer than you're letting on, though I agree Wagner is better.

For the record, I don't know if I'd vote for Nathan. I don't think I would. But I'd probably vote for Wagner.

Joe Nathan was criminally underrated, that's more my point. Even if you think Wagner is better (and I do), it doesn't explain Wagner nearly clearing 75% this year (and should make it next year) while Nathan received virtually no votes.

[CheezWizHed]

53 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

(Nathan's a hair better, actually)

Boy, I misread that at first... I thought you said Nathan had better hair. 😅

[owbc]

58 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Wagner definitely had better ERA and FIP but they pitched the same innings, had very similar WARs, and their WPA are almost identical (Nathan's a hair better, actually). They're closer than you're letting on, though I agree Wagner is better.

For the record, I don't know if I'd vote for Nathan. I don't think I would. But I'd probably vote for Wagner.

Joe Nathan was criminally underrated, that's more my point. Even if you think Wagner is better (and I do), it doesn't explain Wagner nearly clearing 75% this year (and should make it next year) while Nathan received virtually no votes.

Sometimes guys get overlooked in Y1 when there is a crowded ballot. Many of the voters that tend to vote for borderline candidates have full ballots so they run out of room for the fringe guys. 

Since K-Rod survived Y1, it will be interesting to see if he can build some momentum. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

Sometimes guys get overlooked in Y1 when there is a crowded ballot. Many of the voters that tend to vote for borderline candidates have full ballots so they run out of room for the fringe guys. 

Since K-Rod survived Y1, it will be interesting to see if he can build some momentum. 

Yet another reason why the voters' annoying stance on PEDs is so frustrating. It had a cascading effect that hurt a lot of interesting conversations about Hall-worthiness. Guys like Johan Santana and Kenny Lofton (and Joe Nathan) didn't get the conversation they deserved.

Even if voters decided PED guys aren't worthy - and I think that's a bad stance given the hall's current occupants - voters then electing Ortiz to the hall basically shredded whatever little credibility they had left.

[Frisbee Slider]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Joe Nathan was criminally underrated, that's more my point. Even if you think Wagner is better (and I do), it doesn't explain Wagner nearly clearing 75% this year (and should make it next year) while Nathan received virtually no votes.

Wagner’s stuff was more electric? More K/9

[sveumrules]

31 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Wagner’s stuff was more electric? More K/9

Yeah, biggest difference between Wagner and Nathan is that Wagner has the second highest league adjusted K rate in MLB history (min. 900 IP).

The incomparable Dazzy Vance put up a redonkulous 225 K%+ over a Century ago, but after him it's Wagner (190), Nolan Ryan (183), Satchel Paige (183), Randy Johnson (176), Sandy Koufax (173), Lefty Grove (170), Dizzy Dean (169), Bob Feller (168), Pedro Martinez (168), JR Richard (166), etc.

Other advantage Billy has on Joe are that all 903 of his IP came as a dominant reliever. From 1996 to 2008, outside of an 81 ERA+ in 2000, Wagner's lowest ERA+ was 141. That is a dozen dominant relief seasons.

Nathan has 761 IP of stellar but not quite as dominant as Wagner relief work, plus 162 IP as a below average starter at the beginning of his career which drags down his career totals. He was only a top tier reliever for nine seasons.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I do think Nathan’s totals would have grown a bit if he had stayed on the ballot. His case is better than he gets credit for, and he probably will inherit the title of the best modern reliever not in if Wagner is elected next year (I have him over K-Rod). Getting past that first year can be a hurdle for a lot of underrated players, though (see Whitaker, Lou).

[Devinep]

Anyone who thinks Wagner shouldn’t be in the HOF thinks that relievers have to be Mariano Rivera or not in the hall.

[jerichoholicninja]

I alway thought Mauer was borderline at best. His slash line is surprisingly good for a such a lack of power. But even if you consider him just a catcher his numbers don't look all that great. He hit 28 HR's once and his next highest season is 13. I'm guessing his career total of 143 has to be among the least for any non-pitcher in the Hall of Fame. Ozzie Smith is the only person who comes to mind who certainly has less. I think the fact that he played his whole career with 1 team swayed a lot of voters as that definitely gives players more mystique since it's so rare these days.

[Oxy]

50 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

I alway thought Mauer was borderline at best. His slash line is surprisingly good for a such a lack of power. But even if you consider him just a catcher his numbers don't look all that great. He hit 28 HR's once and his next highest season is 13. I'm guessing his career total of 143 has to be among the least for any non-pitcher in the Hall of Fame. Ozzie Smith is the only person who comes to mind who certainly has less. I think the fact that he played his whole career with 1 team swayed a lot of voters as that definitely gives players more mystique since it's so rare these days.

I mostly agree with this take...but 3 batting titles AND an MVP at CATCHER is extremely rare...

[owbc]

24 minutes ago, Oxy said:

I mostly agree with this take...but 3 batting titles AND an MVP at CATCHER is extremely rare...

Voters are definitely weighing the peak years more than they used to (vs. counting stats). If you like seeing guys elected to the hall, it's a good sign that Mauer and Helton got in. 

[gregmag]

I think it's a great HoF year.  Three deserving candidates got in, Wagner got to the doorstep, no bad candidates (like Baines or Morris) gained much ground, no good candidates (like Whitaker) got egregiously beaten down (although of course there are always good candidates who don't gain as much traction as you or I might like), and Sheffield got aggressively disrespected.

 

Mauer stacks up solidly in the array of HoF catchers, an underrepresented position anyway.  Speaking of underrepresented positions, it's great to honor a top-tier 3b.  Coors deflation leaves Helton with solid HoF numbers -- 61.8 WAR, 133 OPS+, right there with Ortiz, Dawson, Guerrero, and McGriff (all of whom Helton beats on one metric and trails on the other, neither by massive numbers); better than Rice, Perez, and of course Baines but let's not even talk about that.  Is Helton a first-rank Hall of Famer?  No.  Does he satisfy overall Hall of Fame norms?  I think he does.

 

Relief pitchers are tough.  On some days I can talk myself into the idea that the only Hall-worthy primary relievers are Wilhelm, Eckersley, and Rivera.  I think we overrate what closers contribute to winning.  Fingers and Sutter IMHO were mistakes, but that's a big ship that's long since sailed away from my biases.  Wagner was better than those guys (as was Nathan).