Would you give William Contreras the Will Smith deal

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

I think you like to argue for arguing’s sake. What does Hiura have  to do with anything? He wasn’t unable to stick in the majors to even acquire the service time necessary to file for free agency.  
 

It was a direct response to your question and honestly...it feels like you're actually just arguing to argue at this point. In what world have we ever compared a FA's contract to that of a player with 4 years of service time remaining and suggested the later deserved to get paid the same as the player on the open market?

1 team offering to pay for your services over the next 4 years
Vs
32 teams offering to pay for your services right now.

7 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Consider the Brewers. When was the last time a Milwaukee hitter in the majors did not play out his six years and head to free agency?

When was the last time a Milwaukee hitter in the majors did not play out his six years and head to free agency.

This is an entirely different point than why would Contreras take a deal for less than the very top of the market FA catchers...despite being 4 years away from being a FA Catcher himself, but the POINT was that it happens a lot. A lot of players don't play out the 6 years and head to Free Agency. 

I'm not sure how that's arguing just to argue. 

What does Keston Hiura have to do with it? Well, it was ONE example of a Brewers player who didn't make it through 6 years(and it's really more like 7 years) and hit FA.

He's also a player that was primed to sign a deal very early in arbitration and a pretty good example of why SOME players make that "boneheaded financial decision" to secure generational wealth.

 

 

You are the one who cited Murphy, the closest possible comp to Contreras as a reason why he would not sign that deal... although Murphy was, again, closer to FA and a better player. 

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

It was a direct response to your question and honestly...it feels like you're actually just arguing to argue at this point. In what world have we ever compared a FA's contract to that of a player with 4 years of service time remaining and suggested the later deserved to get paid the same as the player on the open market?

1 team offering to pay for your services over the next 4 years
Vs
32 teams offering to pay for your services right now.

When was the last time a Milwaukee hitter in the majors did not play out his six years and head to free agency.

This is an entirely different point than why would Contreras take a deal for less than the very top of the market FA catchers...despite being 4 years away from being a FA Catcher himself, but the POINT was that it happens a lot. A lot of players don't play out the 6 years and head to Free Agency. 

I'm not sure how that's arguing just to argue. 

What does Keston Hiura have to do with it? Well, it was ONE example of a Brewers player who didn't make it through 6 years(and it's really more like 7 years) and hit FA.

He's also a player that was primed to sign a deal very early in arbitration and a pretty good example of why SOME players make that "boneheaded financial decision" to secure generational wealth.

 

 

You are the one who cited Murphy, the closest possible comp to Contreras as a reason why he would not sign that deal... although Murphy was, again, closer to FA and a better player. 

Well, maybe I could’ve worded it better but youre reading everything too literally so you can try to make a point. Anyways, I should’ve said once a player is in the major leagues for good. It is rare that they do not play out their six years and file for free agency.

The last Brewers position player to take an extension prior to free agency. I believe was Jonathan Lucroy  10 years ago or more. Corey Hart I believe took one too. Even on the pitching side where the chance of eventually suffering a major injury is nearly 100% there have been two Brewers pitchers in the last decade to sign an extension prior to free agency

The reason that the vast majority of professional baseball players are disinclined to sign contract extensions is it leaves money on the table that they could get by going year to year then filing for free agency..

As applied to Contreras, the framework of signing extension with the Brewers, is probably something he’s not inclined to do to begin with. When you factor in numbers being thrown about here are less than the top players at his position, it only makes it even more unlikely to be considered

I don’t consider the Brewers to be dumb or lacking foresight. Surely, they know the players they like, and would consider extending on their terms, and likely have approached those players. The fact they do not end up signing many of those players means their overtures were most likely rebuffed. 
 

 

 

[BrewerFan]

53 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I would bet on Rutschman signing an extension.  Probably something higher than what Posey and Mauer got.  With the new Orioles ownership I think this will be something they will push for.  Something around 10/$230mm for Rutschman sounds about right and what I would expect the new ownership group in Baltimore would be willing to do.  I don't think Contreras will get anywhere close to that.  Probably something closer to what his brother signed for would be my guess.

I think Contreras has more to risk by not signing an extension as you can't get injured in a lot of different ways and in far more ways than any other player on the team.  Catchers get injured it happens and their bodies breakdown a lot faster than other positional players.  Catching is far more demanding on the body than playing any other position on the field.  It would be wise for Contreras to at least seek out an extension before he hits FA. 

Rutschman is a unique player and I agree, it'd be smart for Baltimore to sign him. He's...a Posey-type player. Just sounds like an incredible leader, defender, hitter, early, but on the road to Cooperstown.

If I was Baltimore, I'd also jump on Gunnar and Holliday as well. That could be a Yankees-type trio. Imagine the left side of that IF...or up the middle with Henderson and Holiday. It's not like they'll be hurting to fill out 3B/1B either, but with a hometown billionaire buying the team, I'd try and lock both of them up after Adley. 

[BrewerFan]

12 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Well, maybe I could’ve worded it better but youre reading everything too literally so you can try to make a point. Anyways, I should’ve said once a player is in the major leagues for good. It is rare that they do not play out their six years and file for free agency.

The last Brewers position player to take an extension prior to free agency. I believe was Jonathan Lucroy  10 years ago or more. Corey Hart I believe took one too. Even on the pitching side where the chance of eventually suffering a major injury is nearly 100% there have been two Brewers pitchers in the last decade to sign an extension prior to free agency

The reason that the vast majority of professional baseball players are disinclined to sign contract extensions is it leaves money on the table that they could get by going year to year then filing for free agency..

I don’t consider the Brewers to be dumb or lacking foresight. Surely, they know the players they like, and would consider extending on their terms, and likely have approached those players. The fact they do not end up signing many of those players means their overtures were most likely rebuffed. 
 

 

 

That, or they're simply risk-adverse as a small market franchise. The Braves certainly sign a lot of players. Cleveland before them(Hart makes it a point of emphasis). 

The exact same reasons a catcher WOULD sign the extension is the reason the franchise wouldn't(particularly with 4 years of team control left).

We know they made no offer to Burnes or Woodruff from at least 2020 onward. 

They have signed Peralta and Ashby since. 

16 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

As applied to Contreras, the framework of signing extension with the Brewers, is probably something he’s not inclined to do to begin with. When you factor in numbers being thrown about here are less than the top players at his position, it only makes it even more unlikely to be considered

This is where I'm done. We've used comps. The numbers being thrown around are about the same as Murphy...and he's a better catcher. You're still comparing a player 4 years away with the top of the market. It's just obviously not the same and I don't believe you don't understand that. 

 

[wibadgers23]

How good is this guy? Man I’m afraid he’s already priced himself out of Milwaukee. He’s just so damn good.

[brewerfan82]

I think it's pretty ideal if he continues to mash and price himself out of an extension with Milwaukee. We've already got him controlled through his age 29 season. Enjoy his prime years and let someone else pay FA prices for his age 30+ years.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, wibadgers23 said:

How good is this guy? Man I’m afraid he’s already priced himself out of Milwaukee. He’s just so damn good.

Absolutely has priced himself out of MKE but…….

The trajectory with his surplus trade value could make him the most valuable trade commodity in baseball offseason of ‘25. Could be as much as $60M, which is franchise altering talent returned.

[MrTPlush]

On 4/5/2024 at 4:26 PM, BrewerFan said:

What does Keston Hiura have to do with it? Well, it was ONE example of a Brewers player who didn't make it through 6 years(and it's really more like 7 years) and hit FA.

Hiura is simply a terrible example or comp.

Hiura had 300 ABs at the MLB level. His splits were extreme, his K rate was over 30%, and his BABIP was comically high. Not to mention he was a pile of crap on defense and his entire value was entirely offense. Despite some posters clamoring to lock him up, his demise was incredibly predictable. There is a reason he never got an extension. On the flip side Contreras has 1,000+ ABS at a premium position, All Star, MVP vote getter, and has Silver Slugger.

Hiura would have been 6 years from FA and still multiple years from even seeing arbitration. Contreras will make millions next year in arbitration. Actually, Contreras could falter offensively, have a major injury, and still carve out a career for the next 5+ years as a catcher...even as a back-up. Contreras is set to make millions in the future with virtually zero risk. Manny Pina's career lasted till age 36 and he made almost $15mil. The bar is stupid low for catchers.

Contreras is going to get generational money, that is basically an afterthought at this point. Unless you really want to cling to the argument that some catastrophic freak injury could happen. The risk is whether or not he makes $50mil+ in his career or not. Contreras can blow his knee tomorrow and the Brewers would pay him millions in both 2025/2026 regardless of performance. 

[gregmag]

On 4/5/2024 at 6:52 PM, Jopal78 said:

The reason that the vast majority of professional baseball players are disinclined to sign contract extensions is it leaves money on the table that they could get by going year to year then filing for free agency.
 

 

 

We have to be clear about the denominator here.  The reason the vast majority of players don't sign extensions before free agency is that they aren't good enough to warrant extensions.  Of course you're right that most players who do warrant extensions don't sign them, but that's a much smaller pool within which we would need to break down the reasons extensions don't happen.  Often, to take the most obvious counter, particular teams don't want to do them even when a generic GM might do them.

It would be interesting to identify a pool of players who were, let's say, "extension plausible" and trace what happened with them.  I think the story would be a lot more nuanced than you're making it out to be.  For example, you argue that Contreras wouldn't rationally sign an extension that ended at the likely point when his skills would be declining.  To test that argument, we would need to know a bunch of things, including how many catchers really get paid a premium past age 33-34, how much they had shown to that point in their careers, and when (in relation to arbitration and free agency) they got paid that post-33-34 premium.  As others have pointed out, comparing free agent contracts to pre-arby extensions is apples to oranges, at least without more context.

I'm not sure about my ultimate take on a Contreras extension -- you and others have made a lot of strong points.  But it seems at least plausible that the two sides could agree on a deal they both liked.  Also, I'm as big on trusting the prospect pipeline as anybody, but developing catchers is hard.  I don't think you can count on catcher development as confidently as you can count on say, outfielder development.  OTOH catchers do get hurt a lot.  So yeah, not sure.

[Playing Catch]

He's basically playing his way out of this scenario, and I'm perfectly fine with that.

[MrTPlush]

11 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

He's basically playing his way out of this scenario, and I'm perfectly fine with that.

Not sure he will ever play his way out of it. Catchers just don't get that much money nor do they get long extensions. It isn't like Contreras is playing his way to a $200mil contract for over $30mil a year.

[BrewerFan]

On 4/8/2024 at 11:19 AM, MrTPlush said:

Hiura is simply a terrible example or comp.

 

No, he fit the exact parameters of what Jopal was asking and he wasn't a comp to anyone, his underlying metrics meant nothing or had nothing to do with this conversation.

 

[torts]

Don't worry he's hitting himself beyond that contract 

[umphrey]

This thread probably got derailed but the original question, $14M AAV on the will Smith deal is a lie. It's probably more like 6 years $140M and cut him at age 35, that's $23M AAV. So for Contreras the equivalent deal would be 10 years $233M or something like that. Or 6 and $140M I guess. 

[markedman5]

 

[MrTPlush]

On 4/15/2024 at 10:26 AM, markedman5 said:

 

Maybe he should take an extension. Will be retired by 30 if he destroys his body. 

[Harold Hutchison]

I'd go 8 years, $130 million with a couple of $20 million team option years.

$15 million bonuses for 2025 and 2026, keep an AAV of $12.5 million outside the bonuses. With baseball inflation, it still makes him a good option at DH for the latter 2-3 years in the deal.

[Jopal78]

As originally suspected… enjoy him while he’s here. 

 

[jay87shot]

I still would hesitate on a super long deal, if we could sign him for a couple seasons of free agency I would, Quero being injuries definitely muddies up the future of our catching. I probably makes an extension for William easier but if Quero comes back strong then what.  My offer would be 6/90 with a team option for 31'(5,10,15,20,20,20) with an escalator that every year he finishes in the top 10 in mvp voting he gets a 5 million bonus and the team option turns into a player option.  

[Outlander]

The Brewers are fortunate Contreras isn't super 2 this season. I assume the Brewers will play it year by year with Contreras just like they did with Adames and potentially could trade him in 26/27 if they get a great offer. Contreras saw the big pay day his brother received and no doubt is being encouraged to hold out until free agency for the huge contract. I'll enjoy him while he is here, with a pretty good chance of him ending up being the best Brewers catcher ever.

[wallus]

We have him for a while yet so I don't think we need to be giving him big bucks. The only way I sign a catcher long term is if it's a Lucroy type deal.

[TURBO]

If he's a free agent in 2028, odds are, the last in a Brewers uniform will be 2026, as I'd think we'd be trading him for the 2027 season rather than get nothing in return when he walks.

So that means we only really have him for 2 years after this one.  That saddens me, but also reminds me to enjoy him while we can!

[MrTPlush]

On 4/25/2024 at 7:26 AM, jay87shot said:

I still would hesitate on a super long deal, if we could sign him for a couple seasons of free agency I would, Quero being injuries definitely muddies up the future of our catching. I probably makes an extension for William easier but if Quero comes back strong then what.  My offer would be 6/90 with a team option for 31'(5,10,15,20,20,20) with an escalator that every year he finishes in the top 10 in mvp voting he gets a 5 million bonus and the team option turns into a player option.  

It would take record money, that is his attitude. Good luck to him. He isn't any different than Adames, either you back up the brinks truck or they will chance themselves getting to FA. 

It doesn't really matter much though. I doubt the Brewers had any interest in an extension anyway. Even a 'team-friendly' one. They never approached the likes of Lucroy or Hader either. Why? Because they are terrible positions to give long-term deals to in their 30s. Even a team friendly one has a fantastic chance to be terrible. Even Contreras had said there has never been any attempt at talks in the past. If the Brewers didn't even approach the idea after last year, I doubt they were ever going to be keen on the idea.

[rickh150]

If I am in his position, I’d like my next 3 controlled years (2025-2027) to have guaranteed money yesterday and not risk injury without getting big money. How much would the team give him up front to guarantee his salary? They might even be interested in “saving” a little money and not seeing where arby numbers go to in the next few years. Would 30 million be fair? 

[zurch1818]

It's not really related to the contract, but I'm curious if anyone has any insight on why his statcast framing last year was in the 93rd percentile and now it is in the 2nd percentile?

It's like when I golf and I birdie and then my round goes to hell when I three-putt double the next hole. After that fine display, it seems like it takes a few holes for me to get a par again.  I guess that's why I can't routinely break 80.