What is wrong with Aaron Ashby?

[brewcrewdue80]

8 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Let’s not kid ourselves. Even pre-surgery Ashby’s walks, Hits and homers allowed per 9 would put him in back of the rotation/swingman territory. Great stuff not so great command. 

The deck is now stacked against him. Velocity isn’t back to what it was pre-injury and his not so great pre-surgery command has also slipped. 

Like I said, I’m sure the contract will get him another chance with Milwaukee especially with an option year remaining, but even a small market team will simply eat the contract when he’s out of options; if he cannot improve upon his 8+ era and 1:1 BB:K ratio in the minor leagues 

I've always believed they knew Ashby was a question mark for SP, but having seen Hader/Williams, knew that could be his future. The contract then underpaid his SP upside, and pays closer to expectation as a RP.  Maybe one day we'll be answered which outcome. 

[markedman5]

On 6/17/2024 at 1:42 PM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Define "younger". Ashby turned 26 roughly three weeks ago. He also looked very solid in his last spot start for the Brewers. Wouldn't be so quick to write him off quite yet.

RRB looking like a very wise man 3 months later……

[TURBO]

Ashby could very much be an option for the starting 2025 rotation.

You simply can't ignore what we are seeing from him right now.

Health could be an issue, and maybe they stick him in the BP as a multiple inning guy, but if he keeps up this kind of dominance, he just has to be in the rotation mix next year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 minute ago, TURBO said:

Ashby could very much be an option for the starting 2025 rotation.

You simply can't ignore what we are seeing from him right now.

Health could be an issue, and maybe they stick him in the BP as a multiple inning guy, but if he keeps up this kind of dominance, he just has to be in the rotation mix next year.

Woodruff, Ashby, Freddy, Rea, Hall....

Miz....Montas maybe?  Tobias....Gasser 2nd half???

 

2025 looking pretty exciting on the rotation side of things if you ask me.

 

[tmwiese55]

12 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Woodruff, Ashby, Freddy, Rea, Hall....

Miz....Montas maybe?  Tobias....Gasser 2nd half???

 

2025 looking pretty exciting on the rotation side of things if you ask me.

 

Civale will almost for sure be back as an innings eater.  As we saw this year, you need way more than 5 guys.   But on paper, that list of pitchers looks way better than the list they went into with this year. 

[Playing Catch]

I say just keep Ashby in the pen.

[Oxy]

To answer the OP--alopecia.  Otherwise he's great.

[rickh150]

Freddy, Tobias, Rea, Civalli, Hall…… got to think these are the guys on the inside track come March for the rotation.

Then again, the 2nd team might be better….

Woodruff, Ashby, Gasser, Miz, and CarRod

[Thurston Fluff]

On 9/6/2024 at 4:05 PM, Fear The Chorizo said:

Woodruff, Ashby, Freddy, Rea, Hall....

Miz....Montas maybe?  Tobias....Gasser 2nd half???

 

2025 looking pretty exciting on the rotation side of things if you ask me.

 

Given what we just saw Ashby go through I'm not expecting Woodruff to provide us with anything close to what he gave us in the past. If he can give us some late season relief help I'd be more than happy. He may come back to something resembling himself at some point but I doubt it will be next season as a starter.

[wiguy94]

40 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Given what we just saw Ashby go through I'm not expecting Woodruff to provide us with anything close to what he gave us in the past. If he can give us some late season relief help I'd be more than happy. He may come back to something resembling himself at some point but I doubt it will be next season as a starter.

Ashby today is still not even 17 months removed from his shoulder surgery. On opening day next year Woodruff will be 17 months removed from his shoulder surgery.

[Thurston Fluff]

21 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Ashby today is still not even 17 months removed from his shoulder surgery. On opening day next year Woodruff will be 17 months removed from his shoulder surgery.

Ashby also isn't starting and has put in an entire season of facing live batters in games. Shoulders are not elbows. Just assuming he's going to be anywhere near what he was without seeing him pitch to a single batter sounds like a recipe for disaster. Counting on his returning to even average is not the best way to build a starting staff. I think it's best to view anything he gives us as a bonus not something we should be relying on.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Ashby also isn't starting and has put in an entire season of facing live batters in games. Shoulders are not elbows. Just assuming he's going to be anywhere near what he was without seeing him pitch to a single batter sounds like a recipe for disaster. Counting on his returning to even average is not the best way to build a starting staff. I think it's best to view anything he gives us as a bonus not something we should be relying on.

Never said Woodruff would be the same pitcher. I'm saying you saying look at how difficult Ashby's journey has been is pointless because Ashby's struggles were when was nowhere near as removed from shoulder surgery as Woodruff will be come ST next year. 

[kestrel79]

Ashby has been filthy since coming back up. Hope he can stay healthy. He is basically like 2018 Hader right now coming out of the pen and giving you multiple innings. 

[Jopal78]

22 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Ashby also isn't starting and has put in an entire season of facing live batters in games. Shoulders are not elbows. Just assuming he's going to be anywhere near what he was without seeing him pitch to a single batter sounds like a recipe for disaster. Counting on his returning to even average is not the best way to build a starting staff. I think it's best to view anything he gives us as a bonus not something we should be relying on.

I assume you’re referring timeout who the Brewers are committed to for15 million in ‘25. At that price I’d argue they’re expecting results from him in ‘25.

[Thurston Fluff]

31 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I assume you’re referring timeout who the Brewers are committed to for15 million in ‘25. At  that price I’d argue they’re expecting results from him in ‘25.

I don't care what the team expects. Nor would I read too much into that salary as them expecting him to perform at an above league average level. I'm saying I don't think we should be counting on him being anything close to what he was. It would be far better to plan on him being closer to Jimmy Nelson and be pleasantly surprised than count on him being the late August early September version of Ashby and having to figure out an alternative during the season if he isn't. That some are thinking he could do that as a starter no less is a recipe for disappointment.

[Thurston Fluff]

4 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I don't care what the team expects. Nor would I read too much into that salary as them expecting him to perform at an above league average level. I'm saying I don't think we should be counting on him being anything close to what he was. It would be far better to plan on him being closer to Jimmy Nelson and be pleasantly surprised than count on him being the late August early September version of Ashby and having to figure out an alternative during the season if he isn't. That some are thinking he could do that as a starter no less is a recipe for disappointment.

Just to add, if we are going by salary Frankie Mantas is making $14 million with a three million buy out. So I guess that must be what the Brewers are expecting if we go by salary.

 

[treego14]

Nothing!

[BrewerFan]

On 9/8/2024 at 12:22 PM, Thurston Fluff said:

Given what we just saw Ashby go through I'm not expecting Woodruff to provide us with anything close to what he gave us in the past. If he can give us some late season relief help I'd be more than happy. He may come back to something resembling himself at some point but I doubt it will be next season as a starter.

You never know what you're going to get after a shoulder and it's probably not fair to expect Woody to be ace when he comes back, but Ashby is pitching better than ever and Woodruff will have had more time to recover.

So, I think there's a good chance we see Woodruff most of the way back. I would expect he'd be skipped and he'd throw ~150 innings if things go well, but he's a workhorse.

 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I don't care what the team expects. Nor would I read too much into that salary as them expecting him to perform at an above league average level. I'm saying I don't think we should be counting on him being anything close to what he was. It would be far better to plan on him being closer to Jimmy Nelson and be pleasantly surprised than count on him being the late August early September version of Ashby and having to figure out an alternative during the season if he isn't. That some are thinking he could do that as a starter no less is a recipe for disappointment.

I think you should probably assume the Brewers, a well-run team, have some level of confidence in his recovery given what they committed to him.

Frankie Monas is a bad comparison as the Brewers didn't give him that contract and they're unlikely to be picking it up.

I get what you're saying...they should plan for little from Woodruff and be pleasantly surprised, but they're not the Dodgers. It's not like they can go get a couple of aces and then just hope their injured aces come back at their own pace. 

Either way, I think the Brewers staff going into '25 and '26 looks pretty damn good. Ashby, Hall, Peralta, Misiorowski-hopefully continues to develop as a starter, Gasser maybe in the back end of '25 and for '26, Rea, Meyers, it's as deep with GOOD arms as we've been in a while.

 

When talking about expectations though, I don't think we should "expect" Rea or Myers to put up a sub 3 ERA. But the staff collectively should be good, if not great. I do expect the BP to be dominant. There's no reason the Brewers shouldn't have just an overpowering pen for the foreseeable future. Even if they trade Devin Williams. 

[jay87shot]

I like the idea of him being a multi-inning guy in the bullpen, maybe plan on him pitching a couple innings when Woody starts for the first month or so and then if need be he can throw 2 or 3 games later. If need be it wouldn't be to hard to strectch him out from their. I kind of like having both Hall and Ashby as long men and having Peralta, Woody, Myers, Rae, Civale as the rotation. That way Hall and Ashby both save the pen from being overworked early.

[Thurston Fluff]

19 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

You never know what you're going to get after a shoulder and it's probably not fair to expect Woody to be ace when he comes back, but Ashby is pitching better than ever and Woodruff will have had more time to recover.

So, I think there's a good chance we see Woodruff most of the way back. I would expect he'd be skipped and he'd throw ~150 innings if things go well, but he's a workhorse.

 

How long did it take jimmy Nelson to come all the way back? From everything I've read or heard is coming back from shoulder surgery is far less predicable than elbows. Even pitchers who have the same shoulder surgery have less predicable outcomes than Tommy John surgery. I'm not saying he can't. I'm just saying A- how Ashby is doing is no indication of how well Woodruff will do, and B- counting on it is not wise.

 

19 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I think you should probably assume the Brewers, a well-run team, have some level of confidence in his recovery given what they committed to him.

Frankie Monas is a bad comparison as the Brewers didn't give him that contract and they're unlikely to be picking it up.

 

I have confidence that they felt $15 million was not so much to spend that it would hamstring them if he's jimmy Nelson and not Ashby. I used Montas as an example of what $15 million gets you in free agency. People are reading way too much into $15 million for one season meaning they think him being able to come back is a foregone conclusion.

[BrewerFan]

13 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

How long did it take jimmy Nelson to come all the way back? From everything I've read or heard is coming back from shoulder surgery is far less predicable than elbows. Even pitchers who have the same shoulder surgery have less predicable outcomes than Tommy John surgery. I'm not saying he can't. I'm just saying A- how Ashby is doing is no indication of how well Woodruff will do, and B- counting on it is not wise.

Nelson had a much worse injury.

I understand what you're saying, but pitchers are coming back more regularly from this type of shoulder injury. Nelson's was a reconstructive surgery. We were led to believe it was a simpler procedure, but it was not.

I'm going to count on him to come back because 1-what else can I do, and 2-Woodruff is a horse and it'll be roughly a year and a half. He MAY not be back week 1, but I think he'll get there over the course of that year. 

Also, to be honest, I don't get the argument "you shouldn't count on it." We're fans. It's not like we're building the team...so if people are optimistic about Woody coming back, it's not at the expense of procuring depth as a fallback plan. 

But ultimately, I trust this team with pitchers. 

Quote

I have confidence that they felt $15 million was not so much to spend that it would hamstring them if he's jimmy Nelson and not Ashby. I used Montas as an example of what $15 million gets you in free agency. People are reading way too much into $15 million for one season meaning they think him being able to come back is a foregone conclusion.

 

I don't think anyone has said it's a "foregone conclusion," I think that's you putting your twist on it, but I do think the Brewers spending *17.5M on Woodruff tells you MORE about the Brewers opinion of his injury than anything else.

For a team that's in the ~120M range for salary, for them to spend 17.5M for one year of a pitcher, they've likely done a cost-benefit analysis.

And I still don't see the Frankie Montas correlation. That's what you can expect to get for 15M? Montas got 16M, but...sure. I don't care about the contract Montas signed with the Reds. You can throw out a dozen FA contracts and come up with a dozen different levels of performance.

It's not a given. It sure wasn't a given Williams would come back from fractures in his spine, it's not a given Yelich will come back his back surgery....there aren't any given's in life. It's not a given that ANY of the players will stay healthy. In fact, it's a given they won't. The people talking about the staff are talking about the CUMULATIVE value of ALL the talent, including those coming off injury.