Article: 2024 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, SoCalBrewfan said:

many of the objections to the first picks seem to be based on the assumption that the player ranked 18 is objectively and unambiguously a lot better or more valuable than the player ranked 60.

This phenomenon happens all of the time, and in all sorts of ways throughout society. Now certainly, the debate can be the fun part (e.g. LeBron is better than Jordan, or Turang should be in the AS game instead of Arraez).

However too often this debate based on rankings twist their way into our collective consciousnesses enough that people begin to argue that things are objectively true. That Player A ranked at #20 MUST be better than Player B who is ranked at #60. It's like ranking your favorite songs of all time... Like really, you want me to decide between "Rainy Days and Mondays," by the Carpenters and "The Joker," by Steve Miller Band? Can't they both just be "good songs"?

For those of you that get upset with this stuff, you should take a look at Fangraphs, "The Board". You may be surprised that not all scouts see Travis Bazzana as being destined to have a 65 grade hit tool, like MLB Pipeline.

[bigred]

20 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Looks like he’ll fit right in…

But what's his tolerance like? That is the real question. Lol

[BrewerFan]

On 7/14/2024 at 10:11 PM, Bulldogboy said:

I give Johnson the benefit of the doubt but I think it's worth asking questions. Now I do understand questions are frowned upon by some here but I don't just go group think like most here. I am open to the ideal that there are possibilities the Brewers could be better. 

LOL...the 'I'm an independent thinker,' line is...really quite often just the opposite.

What is your opinion based off that the Players they drafted were even overdrafted to begin with? Your extensive scouting(perhaps you spend hours pouring over tape and going to games, please correct me if I've got this wrong)...but you're really just going off the "consensus" rankings, right? The wildly inconsistent ones with regard to the MLB draft given the unique combination of players at different stages of their careers? HS, Juco, 4Yr Colleges, etc...

So are you open to the idea that...maybe the Brewers have been doing better? That they've built this farm system up without any top 5-10 picks? That the reason you don't like the players...ironically enough, is the "groupthink" you're above that has these players ranked lower?

 

Just...curious. 

[brewcrewdue80]

On the Payne pick. One of youngest in draft class. Going to need all of those 4years for developing as an OF. The glut of current ML OFs make the timeline work.

 

Comparing Ray at all to Payne doesn't work as he was a college player. One that was 7th on his team that year in OPS. I think Ray had 2 straight good years and going to say the success for Loiusville hyped his ranking far more than it should.

 

I like the poster statement on if the rankings in this draft were 50 players being second tier, drafting one lower of those rank saves money while being in that 2nd tier. Hopefully Payne develops and this draft pick looks genius. 

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

On the Payne pick. One of youngest in draft class. Going to need all of those 4years for developing as an OF. The glut of current ML OFs make the timeline work.

 

Comparing Ray at all to Payne doesn't work as he was a college player. One that was 7th on his team that year in OPS. I think Ray had 2 straight good years and going to say the success for Loiusville hyped his ranking far more than it should.

 

I like the poster statement on if the rankings in this draft were 50 players being second tier, drafting one lower of those rank saves money while being in that 2nd tier. Hopefully Payne develops and this draft pick looks genius. 

Looks like was 5th, but there were some...pretty damn good players on that team(Willy Smith, the kid that TB took in the top 5 was 4th)...and I thought Ray had a big year with Team USA? 

In any event, I don't get why we're going to Ray to begin with. He's a former athletic black OFer we drafted?

It feels as surface level as that. And I'm not suggesting it's unique to black players, it just seems like if we draft a player we don't hit on, people reach to make comps for future picks they don't like. I'm guessing a small school SS with athleticism(which...every MIFer in the 1st will have) wouldn't be a popular pick in a year from now if Eric Brown Jr is struggling. 

Unless you've really watched this kid play...and I'm guessing there are but a few on the board who knew much about him going in, then it's just a really superficial comp using someone's scouting report...but clearly not the Brewers. 

[wichmae]

Looks like Meccage is signing shortly above slot.

 

https://x.com/JSZ_Sports/status/1813617834322457019

[Jenkins5]

37 minutes ago, wichmae said:

Looks like Meccage is signing shortly above slot.

 

https://x.com/JSZ_Sports/status/1813617834322457019

Interesting connection that the Brewers Area Scout actually coached him when he was bit younger. Glad he has deal in place & ready to get started! Really didn’t throw too much this year so be interested if they get him some innings before end of year (I don’t think any of the HS kids really pitched last year)

[MilwaukeeBeers]

22 minutes ago, wichmae said:

Looks like Meccage is signing shortly above slot.

 

https://x.com/JSZ_Sports/status/1813617834322457019

Where does that say shortly? 

[Jenkins5]

13 minutes ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

Where does that say shortly? 

Think more implied since he is forgoing college & will be getting overslot as stated in video. So deal is probably all in place & will just need maybe physical/ paperwork completed before official.

Kids still in negotiation never say they are signing without it being done deal. Like Pratt you make it seem you really want to go to college until dollar amount is correct. Lose that leverage otherwise. 

[MilwaukeeBeers]

3 minutes ago, Jenkins5 said:

Think more implied since he is forgoing college & will be getting overslot as stated in video. So deal is probably all in place & will just need maybe physical/ paperwork completed before official.

Kids still in negotiation never say they are signing without it being done deal. Like Pratt you make it seem you really want to go to college until dollar amount is correct. Lose that leverage otherwise. 

Was referring to the OP when there wasn't any information about the amount he signed for in that blip. 

[wichmae]

I wrote "looks like" according to the video. Thought others would gather that's implied from the wording. As to the above point HS kids will never say they are signing unless it's already in place.

[biedergb]

I expect he will sign, rarely do 1-2 round picks go unsigned, and not likely with the Brewers as I'm sure they knew what it would take. The matter of when ink is dry is unknown, and then when it is officially reported (usually during homestand for the top picks).

As far as signings go - any word on UDFAs? Baseball America is tracking and I've seen nothing reported there yet. Unusual as the Brewers typical sign a few.

[Jenkins5]

1 hour ago, biedergb said:

I expect he will sign, rarely do 1-2 round picks go unsigned, and not likely with the Brewers as I'm sure they knew what it would take. The matter of when ink is dry is unknown, and then when it is officially reported (usually during homestand for the top picks).

As far as signings go - any word on UDFAs? Baseball America is tracking and I've seen nothing reported there yet. Unusual as the Brewers typical sign a few.

I would go further & say I don’t worry about anyone in top 10 rounds. Tod hasn’t lost one yet & very few overall in top 10 rounds don’t sign. Teams just aren’t willing to risk losing slot money.

Haven’t seen any undrafted signings yet pop up.

[titletownking]

Braylon Payne will indeed be getting 75% of his slot value. Participated in the combine. Brewers must value him quite highly considering that. 

[Playing Catch]

11 minutes ago, titletownking said:

Braylon Payne will indeed be getting 75% of his slot value. Participated in the combine. Brewers must value him quite highly considering that. 

If accurate (not questioning you), that's late first-round money. I didn't realize that the slot values dropped so precipitously. In some ways, depending on the team's draft "board," it would be silly not to try and sign guys underslot at #17. 

This all depends on the specifics of the draft, but many outlets said that the drop-off between 15-60 was negligible. And if you were a team drafting at say, #22, that's a whole 'nother HS pitcher's worth of value.

[brewers888]

25 minutes ago, titletownking said:

Braylon Payne will indeed be getting 75% of his slot value. Participated in the combine. Brewers must value him quite highly considering that. 

I hope he proves me wrong but I'll be surprised if he even makes it to AA. This looks like a complete waste of a first round pick and paying him 75% of the slot is embarrassing. With that said I will happily eat crow if he shows himself to be better than I expect him to be. 

[balsamlaker]

Late first round price makes sense as Tod Johnson made a comment about them seeing Payne in the mix at the end of the first round.

[CheeseheadInQC]

38 minutes ago, titletownking said:

Braylon Payne will indeed be getting 75% of his slot value. Participated in the combine. Brewers must value him quite highly considering that. 

Participated in the combine or took a physical there? I believe there are some players who didn’t take the physical on agent’s recommendation.

[brewcrewdue80]

21 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Looks like was 5th, but there were some...pretty damn good players on that team(Willy Smith, the kid that TB took in the top 5 was 4th)...and I thought Ray had a big year with Team USA? 

In any event, I don't get why we're going to Ray to begin with. He's a former athletic black OFer we drafted?

It feels as surface level as that. And I'm not suggesting it's unique to black players, it just seems like if we draft a player we don't hit on, people reach to make comps for future picks they don't like. I'm guessing a small school SS with athleticism(which...every MIFer in the 1st will have) wouldn't be a popular pick in a year from now if Eric Brown Jr is struggling. 

Unless you've really watched this kid play...and I'm guessing there are but a few on the board who knew much about him going in, then it's just a really superficial comp using someone's scouting report...but clearly not the Brewers. 

Ray was mentioned in earlier post so I continued with him. 

[balsamlaker]

Interesting to hear Tod Johnson say they were not confident Payne makes it to 34.

[nate82]

3 hours ago, titletownking said:

Braylon Payne will indeed be getting 75% of his slot value. Participated in the combine. Brewers must value him quite highly considering that. 

I am going to repeat this again.  It is not the participation in the combine it is taking the physical at the combine.  The physical at the combine is not mandatory.  We do not know if he did or didn’t take the physical at the combine unless that has come out which I have not seen anything stating he has or hasn’t.

[Jim Goulart]

Via the "Wisconsin Sports Daily Show" with Steve "Sparky" Fifer: Brewers VP of Domestic Scouting Tod Johnson 

[snoogans8056]

39 minutes ago, Mass Haas said:

Via the "Wisconsin Sports Daily Show" with Steve "Sparky" Fifer: Brewers VP of Domestic Scouting Tod Johnson 

Travis Smith (15th rounder, tough sign) being family friends with Chris Hook our pitching coach is an interesting development.

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Ray was mentioned in earlier post so I continued with him. 

I'm aware. I was just responding to the conversation. I'm just saying it's a lazy comp...I know you didn't make it, the people complaining about it did.

 

[StearnsFTW]

Will there be a signing thread (I hope)?