Big Picture...

[RobertCrawley]

Not sure if this is the right thread, but it looks like Atlanta is all in for Willy.

[edfunderburk]

1 hour ago, RobertCrawley said:

Not sure if this is the right thread, but it looks like Atlanta is all in for Willy.

Did you read an article that suggested so? 

[SF70]

15 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

It stinks the he brewers payroll not going up 

Doesn’t bother me in the least if true.

Go young, and stay young. Stay away from FA signings. The team has the infrastructure to furnish the team with young, controllable, impactful talent, and for as far as my eyes can see.

 

[RobertCrawley]

27 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

Did you read an article that suggested so? 

My apologies. It looks like this is a prediction from a sportswriter based on money and need, not inside knowledge.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Am I the only Brewers fan totally fine with Adames leaving? I don't hate the guy or anything but I'm not losing any sleep over his exodus. 

[nate82]

23 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Am I the only Brewers fan totally fine with Adames leaving? I don't hate the guy or anything but I'm not losing any sleep over his exodus. 

I am the believer of letting players walk who are not superstar caliber players ie Judge, Ohtani, Trout or Harper types and always to let a pitcher walk instead of giving them a long term deal unless it is team friendly. 

[Austin Tatious]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Am I the only Brewers fan totally fine with Adames leaving? I don't hate the guy or anything but I'm not losing any sleep over his exodus. 

It’s moot because he’s leaving but not only did he have an .800 OPS and very good run-producing stats for a SS, but he is well known for intangibles that aren’t seen on a stat sheet but are crucial to winning such as leadership, resilience, etc.  

To me it’s a foregone conclusion that he’s gone and certainly the Brewers have known for at least a year.  So I’m sure they are building contingencies for adding an IF with run production capability.  Trotting out a weak bat with Ortiz and Turang isn’t going to work.  That would be three of four IF dragging down team power.  

[rickh150]

3 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Am I the only Brewers fan totally fine with Adames leaving? I don't hate the guy or anything but I'm not losing any sleep over his exodus. 

Rooting for not signing him because of the huge money it would take and the likelihood his best games are behind him.  And we are extremely limited with $ considering the masses it will take to do  arby in a couple years.

[LouisEly]

25 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Rooting for not signing him because of the huge money it would take and the likelihood his best games are behind him.

28-year-olds have their best games behind them?

[BrewerFan]

On 10/8/2024 at 4:43 PM, BruisedCrew said:

That conclusion was that, given the economic structure of MLB, the probability that the Brewers would win a World Series in my lifetime is less than 50%. I don't think there was just one thing that drove me to that conclusion, but the Brewers' inability to sign Paul Molitor after the 1992 season was a significant factor.

I agree...mostly. But the Brewers didn't lack the ability to sign Molitor, Bando just didn't want to. He wanted to allocate that money elsewhere. That was the start of the real dark era in Brewers Baseball. Do fans remember celebrating getting over .500? Now we're regularly in the post-season.

So no, I don't consider every year that doesn't end in the WS a failure. I don't consider this year a failure. But it sucks. 

[Playing Catch]

13 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Am I the only Brewers fan totally fine with Adames leaving? I don't hate the guy or anything but I'm not losing any sleep over his exodus. 

I, too, do not believe he will live up to whatever contract he gets. We're a year removed from his batting .217, for a wRC+ of 94.

I really really like Adames, and would happily take him back, but I don't see him being worth more than about $12-$18M a year for any year of his next contract.

[Underachiever]

I have been conditioned for several years that Adames is gone, so I don't really think about it. He had a great walk year, especially on counting stats. This sums up my feelings:

[CheezWizHed]

10 hours ago, LouisEly said:

28-year-olds have their best games behind them?

Typically yes.  27 is normally considered where players have peaked. Doesn't mean he won't be good or his production will drop off a cliff, but starts to become more likely he will have lower production than he has been and much less likely to be suddenly better. 

Honestly, it looks like his age 24-26 seasons were his peak: 1.9 bWAR in 1/3rd of a season, then 4.2 and 4.3 bWAR the next two full seasons.  

He's put up 3+bWAR the last two seasons, so what do you expect for the next 4? If you say 2+, you'll probably be happy. If you expect 4+ (and pay at that rate), you'll probably be greatly disappointed. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

I, too, do not believe he will live up to whatever contract he gets. We're a year removed from his batting .217, for a wRC+ of 94.

I really really like Adames, and would happily take him back, but I don't see him being worth more than about $12-$18M a year for any year of his next contract.

That's just it. I can't believe he is commanding an alleged $190 million deal. I get it, I know that's where we are, but no thanks. Part of it is also that I trust the org to find another way to make things work. 

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Typically yes.  27 is normally considered where players have peaked. Doesn't mean he won't be good or his production will drop off a cliff, but starts to become more likely he will have lower production than he has been and much less likely to be suddenly better. 

Honestly, it looks like his age 24-26 seasons were his peak: 1.9 bWAR in 1/3rd of a season, then 4.2 and 4.3 bWAR the next two full seasons.  

He's put up 3+bWAR the last two seasons, so what do you expect for the next 4? If you say 2+, you'll probably be happy. If you expect 4+ (and pay at that rate), you'll probably be greatly disappointed. 

Lindor had his 2nd and 3rd highest WAR seasons the last two years at ages 29 and 30.

Betts had his 3rd highest WAR season last year at age 30.

Seager had his highest WAR season last year at age 29 and his 4th highest this year at age 30.

Swanson had his three highest WAR seasons the last three years at age 28, 29, and 30.

27-28 is a human being's physical peak, but not necessarily their production peak with respect to baseball.

[tmwiese55]

Also, Willy turns 30 during next season, not 28.   So you'd be signing him until he's 36-38ish.   Yes he's a good player and forgeetting money I'd want him on the team, especailly for the next 2-3 years.  5-8 years, I'll pass unless I'm the Yanks/Dodgers with unlimited money where you can just cut him and eat it

[CheezWizHed]

28 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Lindor had his 2nd and 3rd highest WAR seasons the last two years at ages 29 and 30.

Betts had his 3rd highest WAR season last year at age 30.

Seager had his highest WAR season last year at age 29 and his 4th highest this year at age 30.

Swanson had his three highest WAR seasons the last three years at age 28, 29, and 30.

27-28 is a human being's physical peak, but not necessarily their production peak with respect to baseball.

I didn't say it was exclusive or there weren't exceptions to the rule.  Nolan Ryan pitched a no-hitter at age 44.  That doesn't mean I expect Civale to do that (or ANY pitcher for that matter). It's mere probability. 

If you put a statistical analysis of all players that played into their 30s, seeing a peak around 27 wouldn't be a shocker.  Yelich's best two seasons were at 26 and 27. I have my doubts he can get back to a 7 WAR season again...😞

[Redd Vencher]

9 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

Also, Willy turns 30 during next season, not 28.   So you'd be signing him until he's 36-38ish.   Yes he's a good player and forgeetting money I'd want him on the team, especailly for the next 2-3 years.  5-8 years, I'll pass unless I'm the Yanks/Dodgers with unlimited money where you can just cut him and eat it

This is Adames age 28 season, and next year is his age 29. That's the age discussion going on.

[tmwiese55]

On 10/11/2024 at 7:16 PM, Redd Vencher said:

This is Adames age 28 season, and next year is his age 29. That's the age discussion going on.

He turns 30 during next season.  That's all I said.   So the 6-7 year contract would be taking him into age 36-37

[MrTPlush]

Adames just isn’t that big of a loss. At least not when you consider what his future production will likely be and the cost for it. Sure, 2024 Adames is a big loss, but can he even repeat that? If he does, how many years before he regresses? His defense already looks like it is falling off a cliff and no longer as special as it once was.

Dude had a career year and didn’t even have an .800 OPS and his OBP was still a measly .331. Were these stats good and for his position? Sure…but he is already borderline a good, but not impact bat. It doesn’t take much regression for him to start being a really ‘meh’ guy in the lineup.

Wily Adames was literally Rhys Hoskins at the plate last year. Adames might not even need an age assisted regression to see his stats stumble, he has yet to be consistent in his career. 
 

If you were looking for a predictably terrible contract soon to be signed, Wily Adames is a shining example.

I’m sure he is great in the locker room, but plenty of other guys probably are too and can be leaders. I really don’t see him as much of a loss in that regard.

 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Just now, MrTPlush said:

Adames just isn’t that big of a loss. At least not when you consider what his future production will likely be and the cost for it. Sure, 2024 Adames is a big loss, but can he even repeat that? If he does, how many years before he regresses? His defense already looks like it is falling off a cliff and no longer as special as it once was.

Dude had a career year and didn’t even have an .800 OPS and his OBP was still a measly .331. Were these stats good and for his position? Sure…but he is already borderline a good, but not impact bat. It doesn’t take much regression for him to start being a really ‘meh’ guy in the lineup.

Wily Adames was literally Rhys Hoskins at the plate last year. Adames might not even need an age assisted regression to see his stats stumble, he has yet to be consistent in his career. 
 

If you were looking for a predictably terrible contract, Wily Adames is a shining example.

I’m sure he is great in the locker room, but plenty of other guys probably are too and can be leaders. I really don’t see him as much of a loss in that regard.

 

If the Brewers spend $160 million on sub-.800 OPS "grit" and "intangibles," I'll lose the last bit of hope I have left.

[homer]

If history serves as a guide, the Brewers are going to say they want to sign Willy. Then they are going to point to all the intangibles as a reason they want to keep him. Then they'll make an offer well below what they know he wants. That offer will probably leak at some point. Then he will sign elsewhere for a lot more.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

Adames just isn’t that big of a loss. At least not when you consider what his future production will likely be and the cost for it. Sure, 2024 Adames is a big loss, but can he even repeat that? If he does, how many years before he regresses? His defense already looks like it is falling off a cliff and no longer as special as it once was.

Dude had a career year and didn’t even have an .800 OPS and his OBP was still a measly .331. Were these stats good and for his position? Sure…but he is already borderline a good, but not impact bat. It doesn’t take much regression for him to start being a really ‘meh’ guy in the lineup.

Wily Adames was literally Rhys Hoskins at the plate last year. Adames might not even need an age assisted regression to see his stats stumble, he has yet to be consistent in his career. 
 

If you were looking for a predictably terrible contract soon to be signed, Wily Adames is a shining example.

I’m sure he is great in the locker room, but plenty of other guys probably are too and can be leaders. I really don’t see him as much of a loss in that regard.

 

By HR and RBI, I suppose this was his career year.  But by OPS, OPS+, and WAR, this was his third best. 

But that doesn't really change the rest of your point.  Maybe he puts up another 3.0 WAR season, but I'd guess he is mostly a 2+ WAR guy for the next few. 

[Sixtolezcano]

On 10/11/2024 at 11:28 AM, LouisEly said:

Lindor had his 2nd and 3rd highest WAR seasons the last two years at ages 29 and 30.

Betts had his 3rd highest WAR season last year at age 30.

Seager had his highest WAR season last year at age 29 and his 4th highest this year at age 30.

Swanson had his three highest WAR seasons the last three years at age 28, 29, and 30.

27-28 is a human being's physical peak, but not necessarily their production peak with respect to baseball.

i’’ve attached a baseball prospectus article that refers to peak age of ball players.

   https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/

[hawing]

On 10/9/2024 at 11:54 AM, dlk9s said:

A lot of times, the thing I hate the most about my teams losing in the playoffs is that the fun is over. It's not that they didn't win a championship, it's that now I don't get to enjoy the games until the next time around.

Ohhhh, this this this. 

I always hate the end of the season, whether it's in late September, early October, or well into October.  The ushers in our section are used to seeing me try not to ugly cry on my way out of the park for the last time in a calendar year, and it's largely because I have to go 5-6 months between games. It might be different if the "last game" the Brewers play in a season is ever a late October/early November win, but they might be different tears too. 

I really try not to enter any series or season with specific expectations** beyond "woooo, a Brewers game!"  That probably makes me un-American, but it also keeps me from sports making me overly sad or mad, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.  I truly prefer to just see what happens.  Though it's obviously more fun when the Brewers win.

**This applies less to chc and stl games.  I do bring (typically low) seating-bowl expectations into those, but I still try not to bring on-field expectations.