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Posted

The last one was labeled for the offseason, with the season a week away I figured it was time to just re-label and start a new thread. I think we could be in for a wild season of transaction. I am pretty sure there will be a some roster moves coming soon when the 26 man is due. Additionally I think there is a good likelihood we trade a reliever just  because of the roster depth. Additionally I am thinking we should be looking to lineup an early season deal for when Woody, Ashby, and Hall come off the DL. 

When it comes to the deadline I think we will be aggressive if we are in it like everyone expects, especially if our farm system progresses like most of us think it will. I will put this out there early, if Sandy Alcantara is good and healthy I would be ok overpaying for a guy like him at the deadline. He has 3 cheap years of control and with Woody, Cortes, Civale, and Quintana all FA next year with Freddy a trade candidate with 1 year left we could use a vet with control past this year. Alcantara gets us an ace for a playoff run and vet for 2026. Then with 1 year left going into 2027 we can trade him and re-coup a ton of the trade value we give up. If Alcantara isn't great I am sure there will be some similar cheaper young high end arms we could go after instead. 

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Posted
21 hours ago, jay87shot said:

The last one was labeled for the offseason, with the season a week away I figured it was time to just re-label and start a new thread. I think we could be in for a wild season of transaction. I am pretty sure there will be a some roster moves coming soon when the 26 man is due. Additionally I think there is a good likelihood we trade a reliever just  because of the roster depth. Additionally I am thinking we should be looking to lineup an early season deal for when Woody, Ashby, and Hall come off the DL. 

When it comes to the deadline I think we will be aggressive if we are in it like everyone expects, especially if our farm system progresses like most of us think it will. I will put this out there early, if Sandy Alcantara is good and healthy I would be ok overpaying for a guy like him at the deadline. He has 3 cheap years of control and with Woody, Cortes, Civale, and Quintana all FA next year with Freddy a trade candidate with 1 year left we could use a vet with control past this year. Alcantara gets us an ace for a playoff run and vet for 2026. Then with 1 year left going into 2027 we can trade him and re-coup a ton of the trade value we give up. If Alcantara isn't great I am sure there will be some similar cheaper young high end arms we could go after instead. 

Depending what the intel is on Woodruff, I could see the Brewers moving Civale before the season starts. Several teams have a dire need for starting pitchers, and the Brewers reportedly tried to move Civale’s 8 million dollar contract once before. 
 

As for the deadline it’s been a long time (2018) since your could say the Brewers were aggressive at the deadline. Like most years, I’d expect them to be bargain shoppers again if contending and a fire sale (Woodruff, Cortes, Quintana, Civale, Hoskins, etc.) if they’re not 

 

Posted

Tobias Myers just leaving today's ST game is a good reminder how fleeting assumptions of a healthy pitching staff can be.  Depth can be tested quickly and I'm not in favor of trading any of it away.

If the season goes totally sour it's potentially a different discussion.  But determining that is likely a long ways away.

  • Like 2
Posted
On 3/14/2025 at 10:40 AM, jay87shot said:

When it comes to the deadline I think we will be aggressive if we are in it like everyone expects, especially if our farm system progresses like most of us think it will

We've been "in it" at the deadline quite often lately. Since when have they ever been aggressive at the deadline? Sure, they usually make a move or 2, but aggressive? Sorry, I just don't see that happening. Imo, being aggressive means being one of the first teams to make a trade(well before the deadline), or making a big "splash" type trade for a player nobody expected to be traded. 

  • Like 1
Posted
13 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Depending what the intel is on Woodruff, I could see the Brewers moving Civale before the season starts. Several teams have a dire need for starting pitchers, and the Brewers reportedly tried to move Civale’s 8 million dollar contract once before. 

We just might be one of those teams now...Glad we kept Civale...Odds of him being moved now are less than 0%.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
Posted
1 hour ago, TURBO said:

We just might be one of those teams now...Glad we kept Civale...Odds of him being moved now are less than 0%.

I could potentially see him being moved mid-season if our pitching gets healthy but yeah he was never getting moved before the season even if Myers didn't get hurt today. Woodruff is looking towards a May debut so we still have 4+ weeks before he will be ready and even then they might want to IL him mid-season to keep innings in check.

  • Like 1
Posted
17 hours ago, bigred said:

We've been "in it" at the deadline quite often lately. Since when have they ever been aggressive at the deadline? Sure, they usually make a move or 2, but aggressive? Sorry, I just don't see that happening. Imo, being aggressive means being one of the first teams to make a trade(well before the deadline), or making a big "splash" type trade for a player nobody expected to be traded. 

We may disagree about the value of being aggressive at the deadline, but you are correct. I don't see that changing this season, regardless of where the Brewers are in the standings.

Per the consideration of finding themselves a "seller" at the deadline, I don't think it would be the worst timing, franchise-wise. I understand that every season is precious, but it seems like the bubble of organizational talent is very young right now. Dealing a Peralta at the deadline could be lucrative in terms of finding another pitcher with top 100 talent to replace him with.

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Posted
18 hours ago, bigred said:

We've been "in it" at the deadline quite often lately. Since when have they ever been aggressive at the deadline? Sure, they usually make a move or 2, but aggressive? Sorry, I just don't see that happening. Imo, being aggressive means being one of the first teams to make a trade(well before the deadline), or making a big "splash" type trade for a player nobody expected to be traded. 

I mean, the Brewers have shown a definite willingness to deal early. Adames is the obvious example, but they literally had the earliest trade on this list last year.

  • Like 2
Posted
23 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

We may disagree about the value of being aggressive at the deadline, but you are correct. I don't see that changing this season, regardless of where the Brewers are in the standings.

Per the consideration of finding themselves a "seller" at the deadline, I don't think it would be the worst timing, franchise-wise. I understand that every season is precious, but it seems like the bubble of organizational talent is very young right now. Dealing a Peralta at the deadline could be lucrative in terms of finding another pitcher with top 100 talent to replace him with.

Because every season is “precious”, I’m not seeing the team sell-off Peralta even this offseason since they will need his veteran experience to compete for the Central title again next season, after losing Woodruff-Civale-Cortez to FA.

The team’s burgeoning powerhouse farm and universally praised prospect development system doesn’t need help at the expense of the current team, imo, and with their current prospect-pipeline can ride their best big-league talent all the way to FA for the pick and their performance.

That’s the advantage of having a prospect-procurement system among the best in the game.

  • Like 2
Posted

I wouldn't let Peralta go for nothing but I feel like it is an inevitability he gets traded next offseason. If there is a deal on the table for a top notch mlb 3B or mlb ready starter I would think about it, especailly if our vets are pitching well (and healthy when my trade idea 1st began) and the young guys are throwing well in AAA. I think at the deadline it would be alot harder but earlier in the year makes more sense, again if the staff is healthy and looking good.

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Posted

Maybe we trade Freddy at the deadline if we are out of it. I would be surprised if we do it in the off-season because we likely will need quite a few starters even with him.

  • Disagree 1
Posted

If we lose any more pitchers to injury what would you all think about Craig Kimbral (not as a closer but like a 6/7th inning guy). He still had great strikeout and whiff numbers, maybe our staff can help some location and find a mph or two back. I think he would be a low risk add at this point, again if we have further injuries.

  • Disagree 1
Posted
3 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I wouldn't let Peralta go for nothing but I feel like it is an inevitability he gets traded next offseason. If there is a deal on the table for a top notch mlb 3B or mlb ready starter I would think about it, especailly if our vets are pitching well (and healthy when my trade idea 1st began) and the young guys are throwing well in AAA. I think at the deadline it would be alot harder but earlier in the year makes more sense, again if the staff is healthy and looking good.

I find it hard to believe Freddy gets traded. It’s certainly possible but we are losing Woodruff, Cortes, Quintana and Civale to FA this offseason. If you trade Freddy as well then they would need to be making a big move for a controllable SP in a trade. 

  • Like 1
Posted

I don't think Freddy gets traded. Yes ideally you want to get something in return, over losing someone in FA. But the fact that Freddy is only $8m makes him easier to keep around for that last year, as opposed to Burnes and especially Hader making significantly more. And while Williams made a similar amount, he's also a reliever as opposed to a starter so relatively speaking it's a lot more. 

Combine that with a lot of impending free agents (Civale, Quintana, Woodruff, Cortes), and there's a good case for keeping him around and hopefully using the QO. Mind you, he might get traded, but while it was obvious that Hader, Burnes and Williams would be traded, things are far more open with Peralta. 

  • Like 3
Posted
6 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Since we don’t know how Baltimore feels about CRod Patrick and Boeve as an offer for Mayo.

That's just a completely unrealistic offer. They'd laugh the Brewers off the phone.

  • Like 3
Posted
56 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

That's just a completely unrealistic offer. They'd laugh the Brewers off the phone.

Possibly true, but there’s a darn good chance they’d win that trade especially if both starters become solid 3-5 starters for them.   But keep Mayo in AAA Baltimore and we can revisit a year from now by all means!

Posted

Who do we think the surprise team that has been good, but is going to stink this year and have a fire sale. My guess is 1 team from the AL Central Twins, Guardians, Royals and one other team. Either NL West Giants or Padres or AL East Blue Jays or Rays. Add in the Cubs and Cardinals after we decimate them for good measure and the could be a lot on the trade market.

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

With the Priester trade what do we think our pitching looks like next year? I still think we end up trading Peralta next offseason (it has been the front office way to get something more back with 1 year). Keeping Peralta would go a long way towards have a strong rotation but for sake of the question I am going to assume we trade him. Obviously we have tons of potential arms with Myers, Patrick, Misi, Priester, Henderson, Ashby, Gasser, CarRod, Hall, Hunt, Wichrowski, and other who could be options. I really wouldn't mind going into the season with all those young guys duking it out but with our offense full of guys in their primes I really think we should find a couple solid veterans to add some stability. I would think maybe we can keep one of Woody, Nestor, Civale, or Quintana if they fit in well and don't end up being to expensive (or get us a comp pick). My hope is that Woody is solid and we can extend/re-work his deal, we owe him $10 million next year even if he leaves in FA so maybe we can work that into a deal mid season if he looks good. I doubt we sign a quality free agent so the other part would be to trade for a established pitcher with a favorable contract/control. I do think we could trade some of our pitching depth at the deadline potentially for a long term 1B/3B.

Posted

With the Braves starting 1-8, what are the odds that they would trade away a guy like Matt Olson at the deadline? That team is in all likelihood to talented not to come back but they don't have much of a farm system and have constant injury issues. Matt Olsen would be a great fit into our team, he has 4 years of control after this year at 21 per with a 2030 option. What would a trade package look like? I would guess we would give them Rhys for the year to level out contracts and then the Braves would insist on Pratt and try and get Misi as well. The Braves do have a ton of needs maybe we could sell them on a big package with a bit more of our extra depth Rhys, Pratt, Perkins, Hunt.

I would love to see the Guardians fall and make JRam available as well but I still don't think they could trade him and not have a fan mutiny even for like 5/6 good pieces.

Posted
53 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

With the Braves starting 1-8, what are the odds that they would trade away a guy like Matt Olson at the deadline? That team is in all likelihood to talented not to come back but they don't have much of a farm system and have constant injury issues. Matt Olsen would be a great fit into our team, he has 4 years of control after this year at 21 per with a 2030 option. What would a trade package look like? I would guess we would give them Rhys for the year to level out contracts and then the Braves would insist on Pratt and try and get Misi as well. The Braves do have a ton of needs maybe we could sell them on a big package with a bit more of our extra depth Rhys, Pratt, Perkins, Hunt.

I would love to see the Guardians fall and make JRam available as well but I still don't think they could trade him and not have a fan mutiny even for like 5/6 good pieces.

They faced the two best teams in the NL and are still without a top 5 player. 

Matt Olson is on the wrong side of 30 and 2023 will never happen again. 

Posted
2 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Keeping Peralta would go a long way towards have a strong rotation but for sake of the question I am going to assume we trade him.

I've long felt that the organization will trade him when the time comes, but in recent days, seeing his interviews and how the team has hyped him up as their "ace," I can't help but wonder if the team is going to try and extend him (I'm not sure I would support this decision). I am fully aware that that is not how this team has operated, to date, but his case may fit differently than the pitchers traded in recent years.

He seems to be an eyes-wide-open, driven professional that is taking nothing for granted. He already signed one extension with the team that raised him as a pro. I think he knows that he'll need to keep performing at a high level to get the next contract. In his interviews it seems like he is big on family, and perhaps by extension, loyalty. He has become a de facto leader. His English is strong enough to really take the lead in interviews and connecting with both teammates and fans. He seems like a "safe" extension in the sense that he's a pro, he'll work his tail off, and he'll be an excellent organizational ambassador.

Contract-wise, he's a tier below the tippy-top starters. If he were a free agent today, as a 28-year-old, I think he would get 5 or 6 years. At the end of his current contract (presuming a team picks up the 2026 option), he'll be 31, and I think at that point, he'll only get 3 or 4 years. I think the following contracts would be comparable...

 

2024 - Eduardo Rodriguez (30 years old) - 4 years - $80M - AAV $20M

2025 - Sean Manaea (32 years old) - 3 years - $75M - AAV $25M

2025 - Sonny Gray (34 years old) - 3 years - $75M - AAV $25M

2025 - Luis Severino (30 years old) - 3 years - $67M - AAV $22M

2022 - Jose Barrios (27 years old) - 7 years - $131M - AAV $19M

There's a number of other deals that are comps, including Pablo Lopez, Yusei Kikuchi, Marcus Stroman, etc.

 

Putting all of that together, and assuming that Freddy is WILLING to extend (a big "if"), I can see an extension that includes the Brewers turning down his $8M option in the following ranges...

5 years (2026-2030) for $75M - AAV $15M

                 or

7 years (2026-2032) for $90 - AVV $13M

 

Posted

The Brewers will have money for a free agent.  The rotation is dependent on good 2025 showings from lots of young guys.

 

1. Peralta- Cheap for what you get.  Ace by default.

2.) Woodruff- Ace #2 if he is healthy.

3.) Misorowski- Throw strikes, dominant stuff.  Could be a #1 in time or a dominant pen arm 

4.) Priester- Definitely a top five option. Solid 3-5.

5.) Gasser- Please get healthy, still young. Solid # 4-5.

6.) Henderson- Great stuff, still young. Solid # 4-5.

7.) Meyers- Was 2024 real? Possible # 4-5.

8.) Hunt- AAA with a future mid rotation #3-5 spot.

9.) Patrick- Seems reliable so far. Possible #5.

10.) Hall- Future pen arm.

11.) CRod- Still young but needs a good AAA showing. Possible #5.

12.) Wichrowski- AAA with a future. Possible #3-4.

13.) Ashby- Future pen arm if he gets get healthy.

  • Like 1
Posted

I am all for trying to extend Freddy, but I think as we see contracts go up and up he will be worth more than your estimates. Kikuchi, Severino, Manaea, and Eovaldi each got 20-25 million per year. Freddy hasn't had the injury history of most of those guys and his k rate makes him potentially more desirable. With 2 offseason until he is on the market my guess is that he is likely worth closer to 4/120 or 5/135 range. If he takes like a 20 million a year extension thay would be great, but I doubt he takes that.

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