Brewers trade for RHP Quinn Priester

[biedergb]

1 minute ago, duewizard said:

Priester better turn into a rotation arm for the next half a decade because this one really stings.

Maybe this is karma for the Yelich and Contreras deals.... I mean every team has to have a stinker that bites them. Right now the big "loser" of recent years was the Reece Olson for Daniel Norris deal.

Now this is in the running for worst trade in terms of losing assets for negligible returns. Losing 3 big assets.

OK. Maybe I need to go back to my safe place and just visit the minor league forum only. Sorry, ending rant now

[Brewer77]

7 minutes ago, biedergb said:

I think any trade obtaining Quinn Priester where we gave up any value is a nightmare of a deal, he is just not a MLB caliber starting pitcher.

Now we have given up a lot of value - a toolsy, higher upside young OF, a high draft pick (and the bonus money that comes along with it), and a former day #2 draft pick who has looked good in low A with a fastball up to 96.

Ugh. After this offseason's review of Matt Arnold's trade history which has had little to no impact outside of his first few trades (and those I question since Stearns/etc were still "around" for the Contreras deal for example), the return for Burnes/Williams has been so underwhelming, and the cost for a borderline MLB pitcher (he has had ample opportunities to stay in the bigs or stay with a team) has me questioning the front office.

Seems pretty foolish to throw in the towel on Priester already, but it appears your mind is already made up

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

6 minutes ago, Brewer77 said:

Seems pretty foolish to throw in the towel on Priester already, but it appears your mind is already made up

Right ... imagine writing off a highly-thought-of former 1st round 24-year-old with all of 123 MLB innings to his name. Sure am glad the Brewers seem to have better long-term planning than some around here.

[biedergb]

14 minutes ago, Brewer77 said:

Seems pretty foolish to throw in the towel on Priester already, but it appears your mind is already made up

6 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Right ... imagine writing off a highly-thought-of former 1st round 24-year-old with all of 123 MLB innings to his name. Sure am glad the Brewers seem to have better long-term planning than some around here.

Yes, right, understood, and he may turn out to be OK, but he has been in the MLB for 3 seasons with 3 teams, and 123 IP, with uneven to poor results mostly.

I can give him the benefit that he could be a high end arm, but his track history is stating otherwise at this time point. I mean we can get a good streak out of him, like an Eric Lauer for example, but for that much in assets is the issue that I have.

Sure I have been unimpressed with him (but I was also in the ready to move on from Burnes in 2019 crowd so I am clearly not one to base this off of) but even if he becomes a decent back of the rotation starter, I still think the price to pay is way too high, and that is what I am stating. Not that "Priester sucks" but more of "that is a lot of assets" for an unproven arm, who has 3 season, 123 IP of very middling baseball so far. I would have hope that a similar package with maybe a little more value could have netted a more proven pitcher.

I didn't like losing Yophery and the pick, and was hoping the PTBNL was just a guy, but a recent 5th round pick with some good upside was more than I was expecting.

[Yaz19]

When I saw the news on Brewers.com just now I grabbed a supersized tub of popcorn & liter o' cola so I could watch the fireworks.    

[TURBO]

Hated this trade when it happened, hate it even more now.

Just gave up way too much in desperation, which is what this trade is/was.  Sox taking advantage of a team desperate for starting pitching, and we fell for it...

[MilwaukeeBeers]

44 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Right ... imagine writing off a highly-thought-of former 1st round 24-year-old with all of 123 MLB innings to his name. Sure am glad the Brewers seem to have better long-term planning than some around here.

Priester might have been highly thought of but production has never materialized for an extended stretch. Poor command and middling stuff (per TJ Stats) isn't a great combo. Hopefully they can unlock something but this is the danger of trusting a small sample size most are learning about. Right now this one looks like a absolute bloodbath and total fleece of the Brewers. Can things change? Sure, but probably not as likely as we would like. Strides are always possible especially with the player dev the brewers have... but the initial face value of this one is ugly and that cannot really be argued. 

[ghostdrew]

So lets compare age 22 seasons priester  was in AAA this guy is in Carolina yeah ok less talented pitching against kids so no way this is even close until johnny gets to the majors in 2 years which he won't the trade is fine

[MilwaukeeBeers]

30 minutes ago, ghostdrew said:

So lets compare age 22 seasons priester  was in AAA this guy is in Carolina yeah ok less talented pitching against kids so no way this is even close until johnny gets to the majors in 2 years which he won't the trade is fine

Ok now lets throw Yophery (close to back end T-100 prospect with room to grow) and the 33rd pick into the equation as well ($2.9 million slot) the trade most certainly is not "fine" for someone that profiles as a back of the rotation arm. 

[Brewer77]

54 minutes ago, biedergb said:

Yes, right, understood, and he may turn out to be OK, but he has been in the MLB for 3 seasons with 3 teams, and 123 IP, with uneven to poor results mostly.

I can give him the benefit that he could be a high end arm, but his track history is stating otherwise at this time point. I mean we can get a good streak out of him, like an Eric Lauer for example, but for that much in assets is the issue that I have.

Sure I have been unimpressed with him (but I was also in the ready to move on from Burnes in 2019 crowd so I am clearly not one to base this off of) but even if he becomes a decent back of the rotation starter, I still think the price to pay is way too high, and that is what I am stating. Not that "Priester sucks" but more of "that is a lot of assets" for an unproven arm, who has 3 season, 123 IP of very middling baseball so far. I would have hope that a similar package with maybe a little more value could have netted a more proven pitcher.

I didn't like losing Yophery and the pick, and was hoping the PTBNL was just a guy, but a recent 5th round pick with some good upside was more than I was expecting.

I don’t disagree that it’s a lot of value for an unproven arm. I said as much on the previous page. I just hate all these strong takes one month into something that is clearly a long term play from both sides

I look at this deal with curiosity rather than disdain. This is a front office that is (sometimes annoyingly) cautious. They didn’t need to make this trade. Yes there were injuries, but there were several other routes they could’ve taken that didn’t involve giving up meaningful assets. That doesn’t make you stop and think about what they think about Priester and/or the guys they’re giving up? 
 

Are they that high on Priester? Are they lower on Rodriguez and the upcoming draft class than the industry may be? How did the teams arrive on this package?

We’ll see how it all plays out over the next few years. I’m very curious about both ends of the deal because you don’t often see trades of these types of players. Hook needs to get Priester to cut down on the walks first and foremost 

[bigred]

1 hour ago, biedergb said:

I think any trade obtaining Quinn Priester where we gave up any value is a nightmare of a deal, he is just not a MLB caliber starting pitcher.

Now we have given up a lot of value - a toolsy, higher upside young OF, a high draft pick (and the bonus money that comes along with it), and a former day #2 draft pick who has looked good in low A with a fastball up to 96.

Ugh. After this offseason's review of Matt Arnold's trade history which has had little to no impact outside of his first few trades (and those I question since Stearns/etc were still "around" for the Contreras deal for example), the return for Burnes/Williams has been so underwhelming, and the cost for a borderline MLB pitcher (he has had ample opportunities to stay in the bigs or stay with a team) has me questioning the front office.

I think the best thing that should happen, is the team should extend a few of their good young players before they hit free agency. The rest of the league knows we pretty much HAVE to trade them, so they're gonna keep low balling us on the offers. 

[Joseph Zarr]

It's very fair to not like the trade when it happened. It's very fair to continue not liking the trade today with Holobetz included in the deal. And, it's also quite fair to point out the Brewers are absolutely not unscathed in misjudging pitching talent and talent swaps when targeting pitching in particular - see the many failed reliever deadline attempts in the recent past you know who these pitchers are. They have several notable swings and misses on this front. And while we can all agree the Brewers as an organizational whole tend to find meaning in the margins - often pushing fringe MLB-caliber arms to their fullest potentials - they certainly haven't etched a favorable imprint in their quest seeking arms in trades. There are many years left to see this deal play out. In the near-term, however, it's very clearly a Loss. To challenge otherwise is simply silly as I see it. It doesn't mean the Brewers won't come out fine in the deal when all is said and done.

[wiguy94]

10 minutes ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

Ok now lets throw Yophery (close to back end T-100 prospect with room to grow) and the 33rd pick into the equation as well ($2.9 million slot) the trade most certainly is not "fine" for someone that profiles as a back of the rotation arm. 

The close to back end Top 100 prospect for Yophery is not a consensus thing. Pipeline has him 11th in Boston's Top 30. Fangraphs has Yophery at a 40 FV grade.

[Austin Tatious]

It’s too early to judge but what you’re seeing is posters going on record before it’s all settled.  From a discussion standpoint, I like it that people are taking a position based on their own analysis ahead of time.  Anybody can state the obvious after the fact.  Good for those willing to give their views.   

Priester may very well get it together and everyone hopes for that.  But I’m with the majority here that the tools and profile do not suggest this was a good trade.  

The FO has goofed up a few things lately.  They needed to get more help at 3B AND SS.  Even if you think we are waiting on Pratt and Boeve, and later the studs at Carolina, they could have made some stopgap moves.  Even if they want to be cautious with their system, it’s then odd and out of character to panic on the Priester deal.  It’s incongruous.  

Now we have a starting SS who should be at AAA trying to gather himself and no legitimate  3B yet they panicked in the Priester deal.   They gave up 3 nice pieces.  

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

It's very fair to not like the trade when it happened. It's very fair to continue not liking the trade today with Holobetz included in the deal. And, it's also quite fair to point out the Brewers are absolutely not unscathed in misjudging pitching talent and talent swaps when targeting pitching in particular - see the many failed reliever deadline attempts in the recent past you know who these pitchers are. They have several notable swings and misses on this front. And while we can all agree the Brewers as an organizational whole tend to find meaning in the margins - often pushing fringe MLB-caliber arms to their fullest potentials - they certainly haven't etched a favorable imprint in their quest seeking arms in trades. There are many years left to see this deal play out. In the near-term, however, it's very clearly a Loss. To challenge otherwise is simply silly as I see it. It doesn't mean the Brewers won't come out fine in the deal when all is said and done.

Arnold's hit rate on trading for pitchers has been pretty good to this point so hopefully that continues.

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, Brewer77 said:

I don’t disagree that it’s a lot of value for an unproven arm. I said as much on the previous page. I just hate all these strong takes one month into something that is clearly a long term play from both sides

I look at this deal with curiosity rather than disdain. This is a front office that is (sometimes annoyingly) cautious. They didn’t need to make this trade. Yes there were injuries, but there were several other routes they could’ve taken that didn’t involve giving up meaningful assets. That doesn’t make you stop and think about what they think about Priester and/or the guys they’re giving up? 
 

Are they that high on Priester? Are they lower on Rodriguez and the upcoming draft class than the industry may be? How did the teams arrive on this package?

We’ll see how it all plays out over the next few years. I’m very curious about both ends of the deal because you don’t often see trades of these types of players. Hook needs to get Priester to cut down on the walks first and foremost 

Amen. While most people tend to grade a trade I try to figure out the reasoning behind it. If I can see the logic behind it I'm not as fussed about winning the trade. If all I could see is a panic move behind this I'd be worried. Getting a potential starter for years to come while also plugging an immediate hole doesn't look like panic to me. Trading all those assets on a midlevel veteran rental who had to remain on the active roster the whole season would have been more of a panic move to me. Time will tell if it pans out but the same can be said of all trades.

[jay87shot]

The part I don't like is that it seems like we paniced in response to injuries, when we had equally attractive (or better) talent in AAA that seems ready. It just is a super out of character move for us.

I like the idea of getting a young upside arm for long term. By no means am I out on Priester. I think he has some #3 starter upside if he can hone in the command. For me, the Pirates got Nick Yorke at the deadline for him a prospect I would have valued similar to Yophery. It just seems like we gave away the 1st rounder out of panic. 

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Arnold's hit rate on trading for pitchers has been pretty good to this point so hopefully that continues.

It has?

[Jopal78]

4 hours ago, biedergb said:

Maybe this is karma for the Yelich and Contreras deals.... I mean every team has to have a stinker that bites them. Right now the big "loser" of recent years was the Reece Olson for Daniel Norris deal.

Now this is in the running for worst trade in terms of losing assets for negligible returns. Losing 3 big assets.

OK. Maybe I need to go back to my safe place and just visit the minor league forum only. Sorry, ending rant now

Lets be clear about something: Daniel Norris did not make an impact with the Brewers, but Olson was a 13th round pick in A+ ball with an ERA over 4.50 across a total of 160 total pro-innings  when he was traded. If that’s the type of player, you’re reluctant to trade at the deadline for major league veteran talent. It probably means one is not cut out to be a GM.

Secondly, with respect to Priester, this front office group has been pretty good at identifying starting pitching talent like Chad Patrick and Tobias Meyers. May as well give them the benefit of the doubt for at least a couple of months.

[wallus]

Two things are very clear with this trade. 

#1. The Brewers really wanted Priester.

#2. The Red Sox held a high value on Priester.

 

[wiguy94]

Just now, TURBO said:

It has?

I mean yeah pretty easily.

Good Acquisitions - Peguero, Payamps, Wilson, Megill, Patrick, Hudson, Civale, Mears, Anderson (so far)

Bad trade away - Topa and Erceg

The good has so far pretty heavily outweighed the bad in terms of good acquisitions and bad trade aways.

[Jopal78]

12 minutes ago, TURBO said:

It has?

Chad Patrick

Tobias Meyers

Trevor Megill

Aaron Civale

Bryan Hudson

Nick Mears

DL Hall more of a miss at this point due to injuries not talent. 

Nestor Cortes… same

[Jopal78]

5 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I mean yeah pretty easily.

Good Acquisitions - Peguero, Payamps, Wilson, Megill, Patrick, Hudson, Civale, Mears, Anderson (so far)

Bad trade away - Topa and Erceg

The good has so far pretty heavily outweighed the bad in terms of good acquisitions and bad trade aways.

Hard to say Topa was a miss. He was hurt with the Brewers, had a nice season for Seattle then has been hurt with the Twins and is already 34 years old.

Erceg was heading towards minor league free agency when they sent him to a club willing to add him to their 40 man roster, Pretty harsh to criticize them for doing a solid for a organizational soldier’s career who had no future with Milwaukee 

 

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Jopal78 said:

Hard to say Topa was a miss. He was hurt with the Brewers, had a nice season for Seattle then has been hurt with the Twins and is already 34 years old.

Erceg was heading towards minor league free agency when they sent him to a club willing to add him to their 40 man roster, Pretty harsh to criticize them for doing a solid for a organizational soldier’s career who had no future with Milwaukee

I mean they traded away someone who had a really good season for someone that is already out of the org.

Erceg I get the context but it was still a missed evaluation of his talent. They would have never traded him away if they thought he would be as good as he has been especially as quickly as he was.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I think its fair to judge this trade in the moment and consider this bad value.  Most evaluators considered this to be a bad trade, and that was before the PTBNL was announced.  Holobetz is more than a throw in (5th rounder showing promise in low A. Sure, long term this could work out for the Brewers but its getting harder for me to be believe that.

Tristan Casas is out for the season now.  I think a fair trade is Hoskins for Marcelo Mayer. Be nice to have a desperation trade going back the other way.