Matt Arnold & the 400 Unit

[sveumrules]

Yesterday marked Matt Arnold’s 400th game leading the Brewers front office and we all like round numbers so I thought it might be a nice time to see how the Brewers have fared in a few different categories under his leadership.

Lets start with the offense. Since 2023 the Brewers 97 wRC+ ranks 18th, three percent below average. Their highest ranking in the batters box is a 9.6 BB% (3rd) while their lowest is a .146 ISO (25th). To walk that much with that little power is kind of impressive in its own right.

But their best offensive asset happens when they leave the box with +36.0 BsR (1st) and 429 SB (3rd). This has helped them exceed the implications of their unimpressive wRC+ to score 1,849 runs (10th).

Being fairly prolific with RISP at 4,038 PA (5th) of 114 wRC+ (3rd) for 1,340 RBI (4th) has surely helped too.

When it comes to the pitchers and the things they exert the most direct control over - walks, strikeouts, and home runs - the Brewers have been right around average with a 99 FIP- and  35.9 fWAR (18th).

But let’s bring those position players back for a second, their +125 DRS (2nd) and +91 FRV (1st) in the field has helped the pitchers limit hits (94 AVG+ | 1st), strand runners (105 LOB+ | 1st), and keep runs off the board (88 ERA- | 1st and 56.2 rWAR | 2nd) better than just about any other team in baseball.

Put it all together, 10th in runs scored, 2nd in runs allowed, and the Brewers 226 W - 174 L record over Arnold’s first 400 games are the 4th most wins in MLB behind LAD (245), PHI (231), and ATL (227).

Guess all that’s really left to do is make the playoffs again this year then win the whole dang thing for Ueck.

[brooks_quichenick]

Nice thread title 

[sveumrules]

On 6/21/2025 at 9:54 AM, sveumrules said:

and the Brewers 226 W - 174 L record over Arnold’s first 400 games are the 4th most wins in MLB behind LAD (245), PHI (231), and ATL (227).

420 UPDATE (for those who partake)

With their win today the Brewers improved to 241 W - 179 L since Arnold took over.

That has moved them past ATL and PHI (eat it Misio haters) for the 2nd most wins in MLB since 2023.

[Brewcrew82]

But when does he start to receive some criticism....

[sveumrules]

Was messing around with some FanGraphs leaderboards and this thread seemed like as good a place as any to drop this nugget about how much Brewers young position players have improved since Arnold took over.

Last year, for position players in their age 26 season or younger the Brewers 18.1 WAR was 2nd in MLB just fractions behind the Yankees at 18.2 WAR (with a healthy boost coming from Juan Soto and his 8.3 WAR.)

This year, sliding the age up to 27 to keep all the same players accounted for, the Brewers 23.0 WAR is 1st in MLB a full 6.4 WAR ahead of the Athletics at 16.6 WAR.

All in all, position players age 27 or younger accounted for 38.2 WAR (16th in MLB) over 709 team games from 2018 to 2022, since Arnold took over in 2023 they are at 56.1 WAR (1st in MLB) over 481 team games.

[kestrel79]

50 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Was messing around with some FanGraphs leaderboards and this thread seemed like as good a place as any to drop this nugget about how much Brewers young position players have improved since Arnold took over.

Last year, for position players in their age 26 season or younger the Brewers 18.1 WAR was 2nd in MLB just fractions behind the Yankees at 18.2 WAR (with a healthy boost coming from Juan Soto and his 8.3 WAR.)

This year, sliding the age up to 27 to keep all the same players accounted for, the Brewers 23.0 WAR is 1st in MLB a full 6.4 WAR ahead of the Athletics at 16.6 WAR.

All in all, position players age 27 or younger accounted for 38.2 WAR (16th in MLB) over 709 team games from 2018 to 2022, since Arnold took over in 2023 they are at 56.1 WAR (1st in MLB) over 481 team games.

Wow great data. Doing what a small market team needs to do. Draft and develop cheap young players. No doubt a huge reason for our success.

[Underachiever]

I guess that's good, but it just speaks to the lack of veteran presence in the lineup, doesn't it? I would guess that the Phillies don't have a lot of young WAR because they have Realmuto, Harper, Bader, Castellanos, Schwarber, et al clogging up the lineup. They have exactly one 24-yo relief pitcher on the roster right now. Everyone else is 26 or older. 

I guess your point is that they are producing, which is great, but so would a lot of veterans in that same spot.

[sveumrules]

40 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

I guess that's good, but it just speaks to the lack of veteran presence in the lineup, doesn't it? I would guess that the Phillies don't have a lot of young WAR because they have Realmuto, Harper, Bader, Castellanos, Schwarber, et al clogging up the lineup. They have exactly one 24-yo relief pitcher on the roster right now. Everyone else is 26 or older. 

I guess your point is that they are producing, which is great, but so would a lot of veterans in that same spot.

Construction of the roster and opportunity is definitely one part of it. The Brewers' 4,301 PA from players in their age 27 or younger season this year is 2nd in MLB while the teams made up mostly of pricey free agents are all down at the bottom of the list when sorting by PA...PHI (1,444 PA | 28th), SDP (1,263 PA | 29th), and LAD (1,083 PA | 30th).

But then the other teams at the top of the playing time leaderboard haven't had nearly the success from those players that the Brewers have gotten...

MIA (5,141 PA) 15.4 WAR
MIL (4,301 PA) 23.0 WAR
STL (4,163 PA) 11.2 WAR
COLOL (4,124 PA) 0.9 WAR
WAS (3,892 PA) 8.1 WAR
ATH (3,878 PA) 16.6 WAR
DET (3,872 PA) 13.9 WAR
CHW (3,784 PA) 5.9 WAR
CLE (3,743 PA) 4.4 WAR
BAL (3,449 PA) 8.2 WAR

The other nine teams that have given the most PA to players 27 and younger this season have averaged 4,005 PA and 9.4 WAR each so the Brewers are pretty much lapping the field when it comes to both opportunity and production in that regard.

Think I was mostly just surprised by how fast & the extent to which the Brewers went from "not being able to produce position players" to having a core of eight young starting calibre position players, plus two perfectly cromulent back ups, plus guys like Quero, Pratt, and Made not that far off, and even Yelich out here earning his money after years of go nowhere trade proposals. 

[sveumrules]

To take things one step farther, after this weekend there will have been 810 individual team full seasons since 1998 when the league expanded to its current thirty teams.

Of those 810 individual team seasons, only four others have approached the 23.0 WAR the Brewers' 27 and under crew are currently sitting on.

2017 HOU (23.7 WAR), 2017 CHI (23.7 WAR), 2016 CHC (23.0 WAR), and 2011 BOS (22.9 WAR).

That 2017 Astros team was four stars at the top - Altuve (7.7 WAR), Correa (4.9 WAR), Bregman (4.7 WAR), and Springer (4.4 WAR) - plus a nice chip in from Jake Marisnick (1.7 WAR).

2016-17 Cubs were Bryant (14.5 WAR), Rizzo (9.3 WAR), Addison Russell (5.8 WAR), Baez (5.7 WAR), and Contreras the elder (4.8 WAR) up top then guys like Happ (1.8 WAR), Heyward (1.6 WAR), Almora (1.6 WAR), and a green Schwarber (1.0 WAR) rounding things out.

2011 Red Sox had a a couple big dawgs in Ellsbury (9.5 WAR) and Pedroia (7.9 WAR) with Saltalamacchia (3.4 WAR) and Reddick (2.0 WAR) having solid years too.

Brewers have definitely done in it in a much more all hands on deck manner with Turang (4.1 WAR), Contreras (3.7 WAR), Frelick (3.7 WAR), Durbin (2.8 WAR), Chourio (2.7 WAR), Collins (2.6 WAR), Vaughn (1.9 WAR), and Ortiz (1.5 WAR) much more tightly grouped together.

Full leaderboard also features five more Brewers squads with pretty strong showings at #15 (2007 | 20.7 WAR), #17 (2013 | 20.7 WAR), #21 (2010 | 20.4 WAR), #30 (2011 | 19.6 WAR), and #39 (2024 | 19.0 WAR).

[sveumrules]

Ben Clemens had an interesting article about productive outs the other day, and I don't think it's necessarily thread-worthy on its own, but it does kind of pertain to overall team building and roster construction to some extent so figured I'd drop it here in this Arnold thread.

There wasn't a team leaderboard, but I pulled the relevant Brewers from the linked players spreadsheet and probably not all that surprisingly they did pretty well by the Out Advancement Runs metric in the article…Contreras (+5.29), Turang (+5.22), Durbin (+4.32), Collins (+4.32), Chourio (+4.26), Yelich (+3.95), Frelick (+3.49), Ortiz (+3.32), Perkins (+2.37), Rhys (+1.48), Bauers (+0.08), Monasterio (-0.13), Vaughn (-1.80).

That shakes out to something like 36.5 OAR or about three to four extra wins last year just from making outs.

As long as we're here, figured I'd update some of the other categories mentioned in the OP to reflect where things stand after Arnold's third season at the helm...

2023-25 PITHCING

282 Wins (2nd)
87 ERA- (1st)
93 AVG+ (1st)
93 WHIP+ (2nd)
105 LOB+ (1st)
69.6 rWAR (1st)
+29.90 bullpen WPA (1st)
98 FIP- (11th)
46.9 fWAR (12th)

2023-25 OFFENSE

102 wRC+ (17th)
.148 ISO (24th)
2,311 Runs (7th)
9.5 BB% (3rd)
510 SB (2nd)
+41.0 BsR (1st)
4,977 PA w/RISP (3rd)
116 wRC+ w/RISP (3rd)
1,663 RBI w/RISP (3rd)

2023-25 DEFENSE

-0.45 ERA/FIP differential (1st)
+112 FRV (1st)
+145 DRS (3rd)

[long ball]

I’m shocked Ortiz was a net positive in the ranking lol. 
 

this basically confirms my prior thoughts- avoiding strike outs and double plays at an above average rate helps with the “sequencing luck”

[sveumrules]

Here's something sort of interesting I noticed clicking around this morning that kind of speaks to the way Arnold & Associates have gone about assembling the group of players we have going into the offseason...

As currently constituted the Brewers are losing five players with positive WAR from last year's team - Jose Quintana (1.8 rWAR), Rhys Hoskins (0.9 WAR), Danny Jansen (0.4 WAR), Eric Haase (0.3 WAR), and Aaron Civale (0.2 rWAR) - adding up to 3.6 WAR or something like three to four wins lost.

But there are also thirteen players no longer on the roster who accrued negative WAR last year - Tyler Alexander (-1.0 rWAR), Vinny Capra (-0.8 WAR), Joel Payamps (-0.6 rWAR), Elvin Rodriguez (-0.5 rWAR), Connor Thomas (-0.5 rWAR), Nestor Cortes (-0.3 rWAR), Oliver Dunn (-0.3 WAR), Bruce Zimmermann (-0.2 rWAR), Elvis Peguero (-0.2 rWAR), Bryan Hudson (-0.1 rWAR), Shelby Miller (-0.1 rWAR), Daz Cameron (-0.1 WAR), and Drew Avans (-0.1 WAR) - adding up to negative 4.8 WAR or something like four to five wins gained.

Most teams have multiple holes that need to be filled over the offseason due to underperformance during the previous season, or players who are no longer on the team. Meanwhile the Brewers come out one win ahead on the ledger when adding up all their losses.

[gregmag]

I want to combine your two excellent points. One great thing about younger players is that they tend to improve, while older players tend to decline.  When you’re looking at WAR lost and gained, you also have to think about aging curves for the returning players. The Brewers are much better off for having so many WAR come from guys under age 27, as opposed to a team like the Phillies with a bunch of aging stars.

[TURBO]

I hope we intend to keep Arnold around a long damn time.

PAY THE MAN!

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, gregmag said:

as opposed to a team like the Phillies with a bunch of aging stars.

I just realized Nick Castellanos has a total of 1.3 bWAR during four seasons and 2303 AB in Philadelphia. $80 million for less than a third of a win per season.

Beware 30 year old free agents 

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, gregmag said:

I want to combine your two excellent points. One great thing about younger players is that they tend to improve, while older players tend to decline.  When you’re looking at WAR lost and gained, you also have to think about aging curves for the returning players. The Brewers are much better off for having so many WAR come from guys under age 27, as opposed to a team like the Phillies with a bunch of aging stars.

Yeah, most likely outcome right now seems like we’ll probably stand pat, make some typical small moves around the edges, and bring back a team that should win ninety some games next year.

Maybe sign a lower dollar FA, or deal some of the prospect / young player depth for the ever elusive “big bat”, but that feels like more of a longshot.

Contrast that with PHI like you mentioned who could lose Schwarber, Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, etc in FA but just turn around and sign Kyle Tucker & Framber Valdez instead…it’s just two different worlds.

I’d love it if the players & owners could figure out a way to bring those worlds closer together (not counting on it by any means though) so until then I’ll keep enjoying the Brewers making the most of their disadvantaged situation.

Watching young dudes we’ve developed or acquired come up, make an impact, and grow as players sounds way more fun to me than signing some dude(s) for hundreds of millions and hoping (t)he(y) doesn’t break down.

[SF70]

12 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, most likely outcome right now seems like we’ll probably stand pat, make some typical small moves around the edges, and bring back a team that should win ninety some games next year.

Maybe sign a lower dollar FA, or deal some of the prospect / young player depth for the ever elusive “big bat”, but that feels like more of a longshot.

Contrast that with PHI like you mentioned who could lose Schwarber, Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, etc in FA but just turn around and sign Kyle Tucker & Framber Valdez instead…it’s just two different worlds.

I’d love it if the players & owners could figure out a way to bring those worlds closer together (not counting on it by any means though) so until then I’ll keep enjoying the Brewers making the most of their disadvantaged situation.

Watching young dudes we’ve developed or acquired come up, make an impact, and grow as players sounds way more fun to me than signing some dude(s) for hundreds of millions and hoping (t)he(y) doesn’t break down.

Agree on the mostly stand pat.

This coming year’s trade-deadline could get interesting with a Brewers farm likely to get closer to the bursting level of prospect depth (provided the team stands mostly pat this offseason). 

The team could decide to use some of that extreme prospect depth in an attempt to become a monstrous juggernaut entering the postseason with a looming lockout ahead.

At least I’m hoping to see that.

[kestrel79]

On 11/27/2025 at 12:05 PM, SF70 said:

Agree on the mostly stand pat.

This coming year’s trade-deadline could get interesting with a Brewers farm likely to get closer to the bursting level of prospect depth (provided the team stands mostly pat this offseason). 

The team could decide to use some of that extreme prospect depth in an attempt to become a monstrous juggernaut entering the postseason with a looming lockout ahead.

At least I’m hoping to see that.

Wouldn't that be the most Brewers thing ever. We FINALLY have an amazing farm system and depth, and the MLB club is good too...and we get a long lockout after next season potentially and we lose a year of all these guys.

[RWeeksFan23]

On 11/27/2025 at 9:02 AM, sveumrules said:

Here's something sort of interesting I noticed clicking around this morning that kind of speaks to the way Arnold & Associates have gone about assembling the group of players we have going into the offseason...

As currently constituted the Brewers are losing five players with positive WAR from last year's team - Jose Quintana (1.8 rWAR), Rhys Hoskins (0.9 WAR), Danny Jansen (0.4 WAR), Eric Haase (0.3 WAR), and Aaron Civale (0.2 rWAR) - adding up to 3.6 WAR or something like three to four wins lost.

But there are also thirteen players no longer on the roster who accrued negative WAR last year - Tyler Alexander (-1.0 rWAR), Vinny Capra (-0.8 WAR), Joel Payamps (-0.6 rWAR), Elvin Rodriguez (-0.5 rWAR), Connor Thomas (-0.5 rWAR), Nestor Cortes (-0.3 rWAR), Oliver Dunn (-0.3 WAR), Bruce Zimmermann (-0.2 rWAR), Elvis Peguero (-0.2 rWAR), Bryan Hudson (-0.1 rWAR), Shelby Miller (-0.1 rWAR), Daz Cameron (-0.1 WAR), and Drew Avans (-0.1 WAR) - adding up to negative 4.8 WAR or something like four to five wins gained.

Most teams have multiple holes that need to be filled over the offseason due to underperformance during the previous season, or players who are no longer on the team. Meanwhile the Brewers come out one win ahead on the ledger when adding up all their losses.

I don't even remember a Connor Thomas lol

[Brian]

On 9/23/2025 at 1:59 PM, kestrel79 said:

Wow great data. Doing what a small market team needs to do. Draft and develop cheap young players. No doubt a huge reason for our success.

Off the wall Question, Have the Brewers ever made a trade with the KC Royals?  Because the Royals are looking for outfielders and we seem to have a lot of them. Just asking 🤔

[TURBO]

39 minutes ago, Brian said:

Off the wall Question, Have the Brewers ever made a trade with the KC Royals?  Because the Royals are looking for outfielders and we seem to have a lot of them. Just asking 🤔

 

1. Mike Moustakas to the Brewers for Jorge López and Brett Phillips on July 27, 2018

2. Yuniesky Betancourt, Zack Greinke and cash to the Brewers for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi on December 19, 2010

3. Jamie Quirk, Jim Wohlford, and Bob McClure to the Brewers for Jim Colborn and Darrell Porter on December 6, 1976

4. John Gelnar and Steve Whitaker to the Seattle Pilots for Lou Piniella on April 1, 1969

 

[TURBO]

41 minutes ago, Brian said:

 Because the Royals are looking for outfielders and we seem to have a lot of them. Just asking 🤔

We do?

We have a lot of outfielders?

[wallus]

43 minutes ago, Brian said:

Off the wall Question, Have the Brewers ever made a trade with the KC Royals?  Because the Royals are looking for outfielders and we seem to have a lot of them. Just asking 🤔

I think we would add an outfielder before getting rid of one

[sveumrules]

14 minutes ago, Brian said:

Off the wall Question, Have the Brewers ever made a trade with the KC Royals?  Because the Royals are looking for outfielders and we seem to have a lot of them. Just asking 🤔

There is a thread dedicated to the Brewers last trade with each team that Jim does a pretty meticulous job updating.

Looks like the last Brewers last trade with KC was when we sent them Mark Canha for a PTBNL (that ended up being Cesar Espinal) in March of 2025. Before that we traded them minor league forum legend Cam Devanney and Ryan Brady for Taylor Clarke in December of 2023.

Despite nice depth in the outfield, I'm not sure the Brewers are necessarily all that well positioned to deal anyone away. Sal and Jackson are surefire starters, they aren't going anywhere. Mitchell is hurt all the time so no one is probably going give up much for him.

That leaves Perkins and Collins. Blake is a glove first (+18 each on DRS and FRV), limited bat (85 career wRC+) kind of guy. The Royals already have their own Perkins in Kyle Isbel with +38 DRS | +36 FRV and a 78 career wRC+.

So it's pretty much down to Collins. His 122 wRC+ was nice on the surface but there was a .319 xwOBA under the hood compared to Isaac registering a .343 actual wOBA, so probably fair to say he got a little lucky. With that likely regression baked in, Steamer sees Collins as good for a 101 wRC+ in 2026.

The Royals depth chart at FanGraphs currently has a collection of guys in LF named John Rave, Nick Loftin, and Dairon Blanco getting most of the PA so maybe there could be a match there.

Only problem is if you deal Collins, then Mitchell gets hurt in spring training, you are left with no choice but to start Perkins, with Bauers and Yelich as your backups. Last year the two of them combined to start 41 games in the OF, I'd prefer to get that number as close to zero as possible. Only way to do that is keep your depth to cover for the inevitable.

[TURBO]

5 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Mitchell is hurt all the time so no one is probably going give up much for him.

@BrewerFan