AZ Suarez rumors

[sveumrules]

14 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

Small was a top 5 prospect for us, It doesn't take much effort to look at Small stats and realize that they are very comparable. 

One big difference between Small and Henderson is age.

Small was already 24 when he posted his shiny 1.98 ERA (but with a 3.44 FIP and 4.30 xFIP) over 77 IP at AA/AAA in 2021.

Henderson was only 22 last year when he put up a 3.32 ERA | 3.66 FIP | 3.26 xFIP over 81 IP between AA/AAA last year.

The other huge difference is command. Small had a 12.7% walk rate with the Brewers from 2021-23, Henderson has posted a 6.2% walk rate the last two years.

[Lloyd330]

I guess i can say this another way, we all know anything can happen in the playoffs, trading for Suarez increase our odds at making the NLCS/WS

But then again, i'd much rather be the Marlins and have two championships in my lifetime than being the Brewers and have none. 

The Bucks sold thier soul for that 2021 Championship and the Brewers need to start doing the same thing. 

Luis Ortiz was the #62 overall prospect when we trade him and Phillips for Moose.

While Moose had 1 more year of control, he wasn't putting up the numbers Suarez is

[OldHeidelberg]

10 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

 

Luis Ortiz was the #62 overall prospect when we trade him and Phillips for Moose.

 

Ortiz was traded for Schoop. 

[Outlander]

33 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

I guess i can say this another way, we all know anything can happen in the playoffs, trading for Suarez increase our odds at making the NLCS/WS

But then again, i'd much rather be the Marlins and have two championships in my lifetime than being the Brewers and have none. 

The Bucks sold thier soul for that 2021 Championship and the Brewers need to start doing the same thing. 

Luis Ortiz was the #62 overall prospect when we trade him and Phillips for Moose.

While Moose had 1 more year of control, he wasn't putting up the numbers Suarez is

Moustaks was actually a rental and he decided on a one year deal with the Brewers for the 2019 season before getting the long term contract with the Reds.

[Lloyd330]

28 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

Ortiz was traded for Schoop. 

Thats right..That make it even worse

 

Jorge Lopez was the trade for moose

[BrewerFan]

12 hours ago, Lloyd330 said:

Teams like the Cubs, When they have the opportunity to upgrade, they do. 

Some of you like hanging onto prospects at the thought they could be good. 

I'm not saying trade Made, Pena for Pratt for Suarez, but Henderson for him is fine. 

Henderson has just of a chance of being a top 3 starter as he does being Taylor Jungmann, Tyler Thornburg Luis Ortiz or Ethan Small

 

Really? The SAME chances as Luis Ortiz or Ethan Small despite having a 60 grade FB and a 60 grade Change and already perfroming well... in an admittedly small sample size, but also dominating in the Minor Leagues?

Then lets go the other way. 

Henderson has "just of a chance of being Taylor Jungmann, Tyler Thornburg Luis Ortiz or Ethan Small," as he does of being Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff OR a dominant reliever such as Josh Hader, Devin Williams, Abner Uribe, etc...etc...

 

Why you're going back and citing VERY different pitchers from a time the Brewers notoriously struggled to develop pitching and randomly comparing guys who... really aren't comparable to Henderson is confusing to me. 

The guy he's ACTUALLY the most similar to is Freddy Peralta. Peralta came up throwing in the 93-95 range... like Henderson. It had that ride... like Henderson. But Peralta didnt' have a 2nd pitch like Henderson's change. 

 

Either way, the guy was dominant in 4 starts and he's performed at every level of the minors and you're bringing up Ethan Small? 

This is just an odd take. Especially when a guy has already shown he can dominate MLB pitching. 

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, Lloyd330 said:

Based on some of your reactions, you must have been pissed when the Brewers traded Matt Laporta plus for CC. 

You mean when the Brewers BEST players had just a year or two before Free Agency and we'd have ONE playoff appearance since 1982?

Not pissed, but I WAS NOT a huge fan of the move. I wanted them to go out and trade for Greinke. I thought that was the smarter move. 4 years of team control vs a rental.

But AGAIN, very-very different situation to what we have now. 

Quote

I guess i can say this another way, we all know anything can happen in the playoffs, trading for Suarez increase our odds at making the NLCS/WS

 

How much better are our chances? 1%? 2%? 

How much does a good starting pitcher you have for the better part of the next SEVEN years help your chances? 

But lets look at Caleb Durbin vs Suarez as everyone is just kinda taking it for granted this is a MASSIVE upgrade. And I'll agree, it's an upgrade... but how big of one.

 

Pros-Hits for power. That's a big one, nobody is denying that. The 3R HR is king in the post-season. 

Cons-OPS is ~230 points lower away from AZ than it is in AZ, led the league in Ks 3 years, 27% K rate this year, BB rate in the bottom 15% in MLB, hits for a very low average, very poor OBP. 

He plays poor defense for a pitching staff that's extremely GB heavy. 

 

What usually happens in the post-season? Guys that strike out a lot in the regular season, they tend to strike out at a HIGHER rate in the post-season as teams aren't saving their BPs, they're bringing their SPers back in for a couple innings or throwing their high leverage relievers earlier in the game and for longer. 
ZERO question he'd be a good addition for the Brewers. That's not in doubt. The question is does he move the neddle enough to sacrifice 14, 21 years ofd team control of other young players?

Quote

The Bucks sold thier soul for that 2021 Championship and the Brewers need to start doing the same thing. 

 

No, they really didn't, but you're comparing two VASTLY different sports. 

1-We were desperate to keep Giannis. To use YOUR comparison, this would be like "selling their soul," back when Giannis was JUST at the start of his career(Giannis=Chourio). 

2-The Brewers do not have the same concerns. Chourio is locked up for the next 8 years, Misiorowski the next 5 at least(though, they're talking about an extension, something I hope comes to fruition). And they have BIG TIME impact prospects in the minors working their way up and prospects at every level. 

The ONLY teams better set up for the next 4-5 years are teams like the Dodgers who can keep throwing 400M more a year at their payroll than the Brewers. 

3- In the NBA, ONE player makes a HELLUVA lot bigger difference than ONE player in Baseball. It's not even remotely close. 

I'd ALSO say that the Bucks "sold their sold" for Dame far more than Jrue in a desperate attempt to fix the poor trades they'd already made. 

Bottom line, the Bucks were an OLD team and their window was closing. The Brewers are a YOUNG team and their window JUST opening this year. 

Quote

Luis Ortiz was the #62 overall prospect when we trade him and Phillips for Moose.

 

Well, he wasn't actually. He'd fallen because unlike Henderson who was both younger AND performed VERY well in AAA and in limited starts with the big league team, Ortiz was both older and back in AA and performing WORSE than he had the year prior. So he was descending where as Henderson was ASCENDING. 

That's why Ortiz was not the #62 prospect AT THE TIME of the trade.

I don't recall if he'd fallen completely out of the top 100, but he regressed whereas Henderson leapt into the rankings due to his performance this year. Clearly two players who's arrows were pointing in VERY different directions.  

Quote

While Moose had 1 more year of control, he wasn't putting up the numbers Suarez is

 

 

I'm a bit confused as to why you cite Suarez having a better year... though he is. Not sure how much you can count on him to continue to hit at this level when the last 5 years COMBINED he's put up a OPS of .754 and hasn't had a year over an .800 OPS and has mostly hit in AZ this year, but on top of that, you dismiss how much better Henderson has been than Ortiz in the year Ortiz was traded. 

It's also a far different situation. 

-The defense wasn't as important with the shifts. 
-Moose had at least been consistent. You knew what you were going to get.
-Yelich  had NOT signed an extension at that point. He had two years left, Cain was getting older but still performing well. 

Similar to 2011, the Brewers appeared to have a much smaller window.

 

Of course, we actually traded Moose for Jorge Lopez, a pitcher who'd struggled badly at the Big League Level and Brett Phillips, a good defensive CFer. 

This would be more akin to a Carlos Rodriguez and a...Blake Perkins type deal(though Perkins is probably more valuable). Basically two spare parts as Lopez was 25 and Phillips was hitting ~.170 that year. 

Of course, it'll cost substantially more than that. 

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, Lloyd330 said:

Thats right..That make it even worse

Because of how the trade worked out?

At the time of that trade, Schoop had been worth 2.4 WAR in 85 games. Suarez has been worth 3.4 in 105 games.

Schoop was also coming off a much better year(6.1 WAR and 10 WAR the previous 2 years) and at the time of the trade, as a 2B, hit 17 HRs. So he also provided that power. 

Just as importantly, he was 26 years old, not 34. 

 

I think comparing Suarez to Schoop is a lot more accurate than comparing Henderson with Small or the list of pitchers you compared him to. 

[Lloyd330]

A Couple of things about your posts. 

1. Henderson didn't have a 60 grade FB to start the season - He just got that grade ( look at where his FB graded out at the end of last year ( it was a 50 ) Small was a completely different SP - 55/55/55 for three pitches. Ortiz was 60/60 for FB/Slider

2. If you think that Suarez only increases our odd 1 or 2%, then you have an extreme bias towards him. 

3. You keep comparing Suarez to Durbin, when i said i would move Durbin to 2b and Turang to SS. 

4. Bucks sold every asset they had to get Jrue at the time

5. Got the wrong trade with Ortiz, but he did finish the 2017 season as the #62 prospect. 

We have all seen trades where our favorite prospects have been traded, I like Henderson, but i like upgrading our team over more.

 

[OldHeidelberg]

Starting to feel like this really isn't going to happen. I would trade Hendersen if it wouldn't take any more but he has been such a fast riser in the org that the team may not be willing to give him up. Maybe if Chourio is out for a while but that doesn't sound like it is the case. But it's possible Zona just won't get as much as they hope and we can still offer a better package with lesser prospects, rentals don't get the return they used to.

[Mr Southpaw]

Do not sell any young controllable pitchers for a two-month rental! We have the makings of a super solid starting pitcher staff for five years.

1. Miz

2 Priester

3 Patrick

4 Henderson

5 Myers

I know injuries will happen, that is why you keep them all. 

[Mr Southpaw]

Arizona is going to try to get us in a bidding war with the Cubs and whoever else.  Don't fall for this trap.  Botino/Burke and a couple of under 30 prospects.  Let the Cubs over pay.

[TURBO]

Francys Romero reports that the Astros “continue to see Eugenio Suárez as a potential trade target and may increase their pursuit in the coming hours.”

 

With Isaac Paredes (hamstring) out for an extended period of time, the Astros are looking for replacements at third base. They’ve been linked to both Suárez and Carlos Correa, and it remains to be seen how aggressive they will be in filling that gap in the lineup.

Related

• Houston Astros

18m ago

Source: Francys Romero

[endaround]

10 minutes ago, Mr Southpaw said:

Do not sell any young controllable pitchers for a two-month rental! We have the makings of a super solid starting pitcher staff for five years.

1. Miz

2 Priester

3 Patrick

4 Henderson

5 Myers

I know injuries will happen, that is why you keep them all. 

Well Peralta is back next year. Myers is about to turn 27, Patrick is about to turn 27, Gasser turns 27 next spring. Crow turns 25 this winter. Then the there a lots of younger pitching prospects. CRod has one more option year to be a an emergency 7/8 starter.

The issue is the Brewers do have a log jam even if they keep somebody who should be in MLB in AAA and that might not be the best use of resources doing that. Now everyone throwing Henderson into trade deals is insane, but the Brewers need to thin some of the backend rotation pieces.  That of course doesn't need to be in deadline deals.

[TURBO]

2 minutes ago, endaround said:

 Now everyone throwing Henderson into trade deals is insane...

Thank you...

[TURBO]

Eugenio Suárez (hand) is starting at designated hitter and batting cleanup against the Tigers on Wednesday.

 

Suárez missed Tuesday’s game after being hit in the hand on Monday, but he’s back on Wednesday. It’s a crucial step for him to show teams that he’s healthy, so the Diamondbacks can swing a deal for him ahead of Thursday’s deadline.

7m ago

[Playing Catch]

20 hours ago, Lloyd330 said:

Based on some of your reactions, you must have been pissed when the Brewers traded Matt Laporta plus for CC. 

Just for posterity's sake, the "plus," in that deal was Michael Brantley.

[Lloyd330]

Letson/Boeve/C Rod for Suarez

[Playing Catch]

9 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

Letson/Boeve/C Rod for Suarez

I think most of us that follow the minors would balk at Letson being used in any deal involving a rental.

ONLY Boeve, or ONLY Carlos Rodriguez is closer. Letson has a pretty high ceiling. Boeve and C-Rod represent higher floor prospects.

[Lloyd330]

2 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I think most of us that follow the minors would balk at Letson being used in any deal involving a rental.

ONLY Boeve, or ONLY Carlos Rodriguez is closer. Letson has a pretty high ceiling. Boeve and C-Rod represent higher floor prospects.

Cant expect to keep all the young SP's. 

Letson is 3/4 years away and alot can happen in that time. He is the exact SP you trade to get a player like Suarez. 

 

[Playing Catch]

1 minute ago, Lloyd330 said:

Cant expect to keep all the young SP's. 

Letson is 3/4 years away 

I don't disagree with either of those statements. But many of the "prospect-huggers," (and I'll put myself in that category, to a degree), see value in the prospects in two ways... (1) players that represent talent difficult for the Brewers to acquire in FA or in trades, and (2) players that represent MLB value in terms of team control.

For prospects in that first category, like Letson, many of us are wary of trading them for any return. For prospects in the second category, like Carlos Rodriguez, (or like Jadher Areinamo in the Jansen trade), it can be a challenge to find another team that values that team control, like the Brewers do.

[Lloyd330]

Does anyone pay for the Baseballtradevalues site? 

It would be interesting to see their value on Henderson vs Suarez

 

[Matt]

3 hours ago, endaround said:

Well Peralta is back next year.

Doubt it. 

[Matt]

25 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

Does anyone pay for the Baseballtradevalues site? 

It would be interesting to see their value on Henderson vs Suarez

 

Suarez: 8.2 (median)
Henderson: 12.8

[endaround]

19 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

Does anyone pay for the Baseballtradevalues site? 

It would be interesting to see their value on Henderson vs Suarez

 

Their Henderson value was way low when someone pasted it here, likely based upon older rankings.  Right now Henderson has a FV 50 grade, even ignoring his major league work which is worth about $20m.  Suarez projects for 1.2 wins for the remaining season. If you think he is having a special season, you can maybe say 2.5 wins.  That is like $24m at high valuation.  He is owed like $7 million, so you are at $17m.  So even with a really, really high projection of Suarez at $9m per win Henderson is an overpay.  Payne, Gasser, Yoho, Crow would be in line with an overpay but not crazy.