Brewers-Cubs NLDS Game One Thread, By The Numbers

[Brock Beauchamp]

Milwaukee and Chicago open their series at American Family Field today at 1:08 p.m. CDT, with right-hander Freddy Peralta scheduled for the Brewers and left-hander Matthew Boyd for the Cubs. 

Peralta threw 176 2/3 innings across 33 starts with a 2.70 ERA, a 3.65 FIP, a 28.2 percent strikeout rate, and a 9.1 percent walk rate. He allowed 1.07 home runs per nine innings. Boyd logged 179 2/3 innings in 31 starts with a 3.21 ERA and a 3.65 FIP. His strikeout rate was 21.4 percent with a 5.8 percent walk rate, and he allowed 0.95 home runs per nine innings. 

Cubs Offense
Chicago’s offense finished with a .325 wOBA and a 110 wRC+. Kyle Tucker had 597 plate appearances with a .363 wOBA and a 136 wRC+. Michael Busch posted a .369 wOBA and a 140 wRC+ over 592 plate appearances. Seiya Suzuki contributed a .343 wOBA and a 123 wRC+ in 651 plate appearances. At the top of the order, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner each recorded a 109 wRC+, with Crow-Armstrong adding 31 home runs and 35 steals and Hoerner adding 29 steals. 

Freddy Peralta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Ian Happ	B	38	32	2	0	0	1	2	6	14	.063	.211	.156	.367	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nico Hoerner	R	31	28	5	3	0	1	5	2	5	.179	.258	.393	.651	0	0	0	1	0
3	Seiya Suzuki	R	27	23	3	0	0	1	3	4	12	.130	.259	.261	.520	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dansby Swanson	R	22	20	2	0	0	1	1	2	8	.100	.182	.250	.432	0	0	1	0	0
5	Michael Busch	L	20	16	2	0	0	2	2	4	7	.125	.300	.500	.800	0	0	0	0	0
6	Kyle Tucker	L	15	11	5	1	0	0	0	4	1	.455	.600	.545	1.145	0	0	0	0	0
7	Pete Crow-Armstrong	L	13	11	5	1	0	1	3	1	1	.455	.500	.818	1.318	1	0	0	0	0
8	Carson Kelly	R	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	1	4	.100	.182	.100	.282	0	0	0	0	0
9	Justin Turner	R	8	8	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.125	.125	.125	.250	0	0	0	0	0
10	Willi Castro	B	7	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	.143	.143	.143	.286	0	0	0	0	0
11	Matt Shaw	R	6	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.167	.000	.167	0	0	0	1	0
12	Moisés Ballesteros	L	2	2	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	.500	.500	1.000	1.500	0	0	0	0	0
13	Reese McGuire	L	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
14	Jameson Taillon	R	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
Generated 10/4/2025.

Brewers Offense
Milwaukee’s offense produced a .322 wOBA and a 107 wRC+. Brice Turang led regulars with a .346 wOBA and a 124 wRC+ across 659 plate appearances. William Contreras had 659 plate appearances with a .332 wOBA and a 113 wRC+. Christian Yelich added a .343 wOBA and a 121 wRC+ in 644 plate appearances. Sal Frelick logged 594 plate appearances with a .332 wOBA and a 114 wRC+, and Jackson Chourio had 589 plate appearances with a .328 wOBA and a 111 wRC+. 

Matthew Boyd vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Andrew Vaughn	R	14	12	3	2	0	1	1	2	4	.250	.357	.667	1.024	0	0	0	0	0
2	Jake Bauers	L	11	11	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.091	.091	.091	.182	0	0	0	0	0
3	Christian Yelich	L	11	11	3	1	0	1	2	0	3	.273	.273	.636	.909	0	0	0	0	0
4	William Contreras	R	9	9	4	0	0	1	1	0	0	.444	.444	.778	1.222	0	0	0	0	1
5	Brice Turang	L	8	7	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	.286	.250	.286	.536	0	1	0	0	0
6	Isaac Collins	B	6	5	1	0	0	0	2	1	1	.200	.333	.200	.533	0	0	0	0	0
7	Sal Frelick	L	6	5	2	0	0	0	1	1	2	.400	.500	.400	.900	0	0	0	0	0
8	Joey Ortiz	R	6	6	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	.167	.167	.167	.333	0	0	0	0	0
9	Caleb Durbin	R	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	.200	.000	.200	0	0	0	0	0
10	Brandon Lockridge	R	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	.333	.500	.667	1.167	0	0	0	0	0
11	Jackson Chourio	R	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	.000	.667	.000	.667	0	0	0	0	0
12	Rhys Hoskins	R	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.500	.667	.500	1.167	0	0	0	0	0
13	Blake Perkins	B	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
Generated 10/4/2025.

From a run-prevention standpoint, Peralta’s profile paired a high strikeout rate with a FIP close to his ERA. Boyd’s season line showed comparable FIP to ERA with fewer walks and a lower home-run rate. 

Credit to @Frisbee Slider for the creation of the forum game thread.

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[MoreTrife]

I'm sorry, I'm weak and I'm just sick this is the scenario. I'm pretty chill on sports these days but this is only scenario that gets me upset. Smug counsell, smug cubs fans turning home field into 50/50, castoffs like Rea, Pomeranz, Rogers having success for them, the list is endless. Mets hurt last year. This may break me. Sorry, I'm weak.

[Nola Beery]

18 minutes ago, MoreTrife said:

I'm sorry, I'm weak and I'm just sick this is the scenario. I'm pretty chill on sports these days but this is only scenario that gets me upset. Smug counsell, smug cubs fans turning home field into 50/50, castoffs like Rea, Pomeranz, Rogers having success for them, the list is endless. Mets hurt last year. This may break me. Sorry, I'm weak.

I feel your pain. And yet...

[dlk9s]

Or...the Brewers can win.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

End of the day, it's just baseball. Tune out the noise. Nothing that happened in this series changes the fact that it's just better to be a Brewer fan than a Cubs fan. 

[wibadgers23]

Someone will need to do a welfare check on me in about a week.  This is going to be something else.

[SRB]

I'd much rather face the Cubs than Manny Machado in the playoffs again 😄

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It's a baseball game. It's not that serious to lose and it's awesome if you win against your biggest rival. I always wanted it to be the Cubs. Such a greater potential for entertainment than San Diego. Have a little faith in the boys. 

[Team Canada]

At this point I'm rooting for the Dodgers and let's make it a full on revenge tour to the WS.

[duewizard]

One game at a time. Ideally we sweep them but realistically I hope we win games 1 and 3 and then you get two chances to beat them.

Time for Freddy to prove the doubters wring once and for all

[Brewluver]

3 minutes ago, duewizard said:

One game at a time. Ideally we sweep them but realistically I hope they win games 1 and 3 and then you get two chances to beat them.

Time for Freddy to prove the doubters wring once and for all

You should proof read b4 you post.

Unless you are saying you want them to beat us in games 1 and 3 ??

[duewizard]

2 minutes ago, Brewluver said:

You should proof read b4 you post.

Unless you are saying you want them to beat us in games 1 and 3 ??

They as in "the guys"™ but I see how its confusing. Ive changed it now

[Team Canada]

8 minutes ago, Brewluver said:

You should proof read b4 you post.

You could ask for clarification in a less abrasive way.

[torts]

Soccer game at 830, flag football at 1015, NLDS at 205 and then school band at 700, Saturday is going to be a hell of a day

[Zad Fnark]

8 hours ago, torts said:

Soccer game at 830, flag football at 1015, NLDS at 205 and then school band at 700, Saturday is going to be a hell of a day

My wife's been working tickets at her high school football games.  She's a special ed teacher there.  Winneconne has been beating everyone like 40 - nothing, or close enough to that.

Playoffs will be interesting.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

10 hours ago, Team Canada said:

At this point I'm rooting for the Dodgers and let's make it a full on revenge tour to the WS.

I agree. If you're the Brewers you're always on house money. Nobody expects much.

[Brian]

15 hours ago, duewizard said:

Time for Freddy to prove the doubters wring once and for all

Hope Freddy is closer to his 2025 season ERA than his post season ERA which is about 1  1/2 runs higher.  If you watched the Cubs series I also hope the umpiring is better in this series than what it was in Chicago.  That last call of the game wound up being pretty significant.

First, Bogarts called out on strikes on a terrible, terrible call that was obviously a ball,  Keller hit the next two batters to put two runners on base with one out and a two-run lead. Had Bogaerts reached base, it would've been bases loaded and no outs. 

Hope that plays mind games with the Cubs being that the game was practically handed to them by terrible, terrible umpiring.  Cubs know what happened in that last game, it was the break they needed to win it. 

[HarryDoyle]

[StearnsFTW]

I would prefer a win.

[long ball]

I’m most interested to see if the cubs will bring back Boyd on 3 days rest to start game 1 Saturday. He pitched 4.1 innings on 58 pitches. 
 

if they bring back Boyd on 3 days rest then Imanaga will be on 4 days resist game 2 and Taillon would be on 5 days rest for game 3. Boyd and Imanaga could both pitch games 4 and 5 on normal rest. 
 

I could really see it going either way. 

[Brian]

36 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

I would prefer a win.

I see the game one opening Vegas Odds are Brewers favored by 1  1/2 runs. 

[Brian]

33 minutes ago, long ball said:

I’m most interested to see if the cubs will bring back Boyd on 3 days rest to start game 1 Saturday. He pitched 4.1 innings on 58 pitches. 
 

if they bring back Boyd on 3 days rest then Imanaga will be on 4 days resist game 2 and Taillon would be on 5 days rest for game 3. Boyd and Imanaga could both pitch games 4 and 5 on normal rest. 
 

I could really see it going either way. 

I believe Imanaga is worse than Boyd or Taillon.  But rest and how they feel is huge.  Three days rest for Boyd is not very much even with only 58 pitches.  Wonder if we see any of Collen Rea? 

[Frisbee Slider]

Brewers team OPS is nearly identical versus LHP and RHP

[Frisbee Slider]

Rea has 5.59 ERA against Milwaukee in 2025.

Boyd has 7.84 ERA against Milwaukee in 2025.

Too early to ‘bullpen’ game one 

[Brewluver]

2 hours ago, Brian said:

That last call of the game wound end up being pretty significant.

Hope that plays mind games with the Cubs being that the game was practically handed to them by terrible, terrible umpiring. 

Brian, that 1 bad strike call is NOT why the Pads lost the series.

We could make a list of real reasons, I'll start with a couple.

1) - Unable to get a hit with runners in scoring position.

2) - Their superstars not providing the offense they paid them for. (the top 3 batters went hitless. Tatis Jr 3 strike-outs in 4 ab.

3) - Cubs Pitching

4) - Cubs Defense