Ashby Trade Possible?

[rickh150]

On 12/31/2025 at 7:32 PM, Frisbee Slider said:

The Brewers extended Ashby because they really like him and have him at a controllable price. 

Shocked if they trade him.

Plus, we need him to be our opener 75 times this season.

Extended  him when they expected him to throw 150+ innings a year, not half that.  He has trade value now.
I would be shocked if he is in his current role in 2027….not surprised at all if he is elsewhere in a month.
No surprise if Peralta and Megill are elsewhere too…

[Frisbee Slider]

I think Milwaukee runs it back in 2026 with similar roster, presumably greater health and development from our pre-arbitration players.

[Scooterfletcher]

A creative trade would be Ashby and one of adams:/wlken/boeve for Emerson.   Cant see any possible way either team ends up regretting it

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

A creative trade would be Ashby and one of adams:/wlken/boeve for Emerson.   Cant see any possible way either team ends up regretting it

What Emerson is this?

[Scooterfletcher]

9 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

What Emerson is this?

Seattle AA bound infielder who is their top prospect.

[sveumrules]

13 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Extended  him when they expected him to throw 150+ innings a year, not half that.

They hoped he could throw 150+ innings a year. If Ashby had developed into even a five and dive Peralta kind of starter there would be massive surplus value on his contract.

The whole beauty of the extension though was that even if that didn't happen, and Ashby only became a dominant reliever, there would still be a healthy amount of surplus value because elite free agent relievers make way more than 4/$35M.

[Soupy]

I don’t think Seattle is trading their top prospect when there is a spot for him this year on their team. 

[wiguy94]

11 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Seattle AA bound infielder who is their top prospect.

Yeah you’re not getting Colt Emerson for Ashby and a throw in.

[Team Canada]

44 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Sit this one out grandpa.

Disagree on content. Don't devolve into name calling.

[Jake McKibbin]

On 1/4/2026 at 4:01 AM, Scooterfletcher said:

A creative trade would be Ashby and one of adams:/wlken/boeve for Emerson.   Cant see any possible way either team ends up regretting it

A rephrasing of the trade might be, would you trade Luis Pena (#18 prospect per MLN) for Tai Peete (Seattle's No. 11 prospect per pipeline) and Gabe Speier (2.61 ERA in 62 innings in 2025)

I'm not as high on Pena as some, but even then you'd be trading away huge upside for a 7th/8th inning reliever and a throw in position player prospect with some potential and some question marks to boot. It feels fairly uneven whichever way you look at it

[Scooterfletcher]

18 hours ago, Team Canada said:

Disagree on content. Don't devolve into name calling.

Is “douche” more acceptable than “Grandpa” for warning purposes mods?  Am I not in the “Good Ol’ Boys Club” here that you let Turbo in?   Let me know if there is consistency with your warnings/calling out of posters as you “govern” this site. 

[Team Canada]

18 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Is “douche” more acceptable than “Grandpa” for warning purposes mods?  Am I not in the “Good Ol’ Boys Club” here that you let Turbo in?   Let me know if there is consistency with your warnings/calling out of posters as you “govern” this site. 

You could also ask that in a more neutral, genuinely inquiring way instead of intentionally being a jerk about it.

To address your actual question - that is fair, both of you can knock it off.

[harmony]

On 1/5/2026 at 1:07 AM, Jake McKibbin said:

A rephrasing of the trade might be, would you trade Luis Pena (#18 prospect per MLN) for Tai Peete (Seattle's No. 11 prospect per pipeline) and Gabe Speier (2.61 ERA in 62 innings in 2025)

I'm not as high on Pena as some, but even then you'd be trading away huge upside for a 7th/8th inning reliever and a throw in position player prospect with some potential and some question marks to boot. It feels fairly uneven whichever way you look at it

Seattle reportedly is pursuing another bullpen piece so the Mariners are unlikely to trade Speier's high-leverage arm.

FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns surplus values of $15.1 million for Luis Pena, $14.8 million for Tai Peete and $12.5 million for Gabe Speier.

 

 

[harmony]

On 1/3/2026 at 8:01 PM, Scooterfletcher said:

A creative trade would be Ashby and one of adams:/wlken/boeve for Emerson.   Cant see any possible way either team ends up regretting it

In November Baseball Trade Values assigned Aaron Ashby a negative value of $6 million and today assigned Colt Emerson a surplus value of $61.5 million.  Luke Adams, Brock Wilkin and Mike Boever have surplus values between $8.2 million and $2.6 million.

Likely regrets abound in the Pacific Northwest.

[CheeseheadInQC]

20 minutes ago, harmony said:

In November Baseball Trade Values assigned Aaron Ashby a negative value of $6 million and today assigned Colt Emerson a surplus value of $61.5 million.  Luke Adams, Brock Wilkin and Mike Boever have surplus values between $8.2 million and $2.6 million.

Likely regrets abound in the Pacific Northwest.

In general I agree with you, but Ashby having negative value when similar pitchers are getting $6 million more in free agency over the next two seasons is among the reasons why I just shake my head at some of their evaluations.

[sveumrules]

6 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

In general I agree with you, but Ashby having negative value when similar pitchers are getting $6 million more in free agency over the next two seasons is among the reasons why I just shake my head at some of their evaluations.

Yeah, I certainly admire the effort behind BTV and its a fun resource to check, but they are probably using some kind of projection system that is way overweighting Ashby's numbers as a starter similar to Steamer (3.48 ERA projection for 2026) or even worse ZiPS (3.95 ERA projection for 2026).

Never mind the last two years Ashby has a 2.03 ERA out of the pen that is the 5th lowest among 204 relievers with at least 70 IP. His 2.31 FIP is also 5th over that same time frame, his 2.65 SIERA (12th) and 2.88 xERA (20th) aren't quite as rosy but again are still a healthy distance below his projections.

[brewmann04]

Think they keep AA in Milwaukee 

[Austin Tatious]

I’d keep Ashby and not use him as a starter and focus on him being a weapon out of the pen à la Hader, pre-closer.   

[Scooterfletcher]

On 1/6/2026 at 11:43 AM, Team Canada said:

You could also ask that in a more neutral, genuinely inquiring way instead of intentionally being a jerk about it.

To address your actual question - that is fair, both of you can knock it off.

If you moderate closely enough, you’ll see an instigator every single time that isn’t me.   And you warned me once (for no reason)  with zero respect.   I’ll keep doing what I think are good posts and only confront when a yahoo confronts me.   Beyond that, let’s just agree to disagree on how the forum is being policed.   I enjoy talking brewers even if there is some things I feel are too shoddy in the forums. 

[Scooterfletcher]

If we can get two of Benge, Tong, Sproat, Williams for Freddy (Mets can pick any duo they wish), then we gotta do the deal.   Apparently they want to trade for a top starter rather than sign one as well. 

[brewcrewdue80]

On 1/6/2026 at 9:14 PM, harmony said:

Seattle reportedly is pursuing another bullpen piece so the Mariners are unlikely to trade Speier's high-leverage arm.

FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns surplus values of $15.1 million for Luis Pena, $14.8 million for Tai Peete and $12.5 million for Gabe Speier.

 

 

Yeah so Pena at a 60 grade overall 18 in MLB 15.1 and Peete at a 45 grade overall-#11 rank for Seattle 14.8?

 

Is the decimal meant to be 1.48M? If even that? Speier has 2 years of team control remaining. Under 2 WAR career?  

 

Did you look for the most absurd values on Seattle and the worst for Milwaukee? Is it from 2024? Vs recent 2025?  Pena will likely crack Made's trade value by the end of 26 as rookies graduate off the list ahead of today. 

[harmony]

On 1/9/2026 at 7:05 PM, brewcrewdue80 said:

Yeah so Pena at a 60 grade overall 18 in MLB 15.1 and Peete at a 45 grade overall-#11 rank for Seattle 14.8?

 

Is the decimal meant to be 1.48M? If even that? Speier has 2 years of team control remaining. Under 2 WAR career?  

 

Did you look for the most absurd values on Seattle and the worst for Milwaukee? Is it from 2024? Vs recent 2025?  Pena will likely crack Made's trade value by the end of 26 as rookies graduate off the list ahead of today. 

Feel free to read up on how Baseball Trade Values assesses MLB players:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers

You're welcome.

[tmwiese55]

They definitely view him as a starter, after all he started what, 7 playoff games last year?

Joking aside, I'd guess they keep him this year and give him a real shot to start. If he can become a starter he's great value at that contract going forward, so I think they'll want to try that first.  If that fails and he ends up back in the pen this year, then I generally agree they might look to move him next offseason.   

I hadn't really thought of it before now, but he'd also someone that could make sense to trade to someone who is also trying to win now but has an mlb bat coming available for whatever reason. IDK for a quick example, someone like Lawler.  Those situations can be hard to find because we're trying to win so don't wanna only get prospects, and the same applies in reverse.

[brewcrewdue80]

13 hours ago, harmony said:

Feel free to read up on how Baseball Trade Values assesses MLB players:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers

You're welcome.

I have a familiarity with BTV. I used it when it was free here a number of times.  My comment, remembering on how a top 20 ranked prospect having serious gains in BTValue the more up the ladder towards #1, and what outside the top 100 was valued(usually $~1m).  The point i was making is Pena top 20 in baseball, the higher value.  Peete outside top 100 #11 in Seattle's team ranking, would not have that value without it being a mistake.  He'd  need to be top 25 prospect in all of baseball.  These are MILB players with 0 differences in salary or team control.  The difference is a 60grade overall ranking and a 45 grade overall ranking.  55 grade overall ranking is #100 right now.(surprisingly)  so Peete isnt even close to top 100 value.

Edited January 15 by brewcrewdue80
Multi words

[jay87shot]

On 1/7/2026 at 10:14 PM, Austin Tatious said:

I’d keep Ashby and not use him as a starter and focus on him being a weapon out of the pen à la Hader, pre-closer.   

With our depth of arms I really like this, Ashby could be an opener for lefty heavy teams. If a starter goes out early, he is a perfect guy to bring in the 4th/5th and get out of a jam, if the backend of the pen is overused he can close. 

The offer would have to be really good to send him out. I think he is better than Edward Cabrera or at the very least similar value. To send out Ashby we would need to get back 1 big prospect (mlb ready) and a couple solid pieces as well. I can't see the M's trading Emerson away, JP Crawford has 1 year of control left and that will fit well with Emerson's time table. I would think Ashby could be a good fit for a team like the Mets if someone was going to offer a lot for him. He could start there, Stearns would be familiar with him, and they have good prospect depth to wow us.