2026 Misc MLB News Thread

[Underachiever]

I didn't see this coming. Cal Raleigh is 0-for May.

After going 0 for 3 with a walk and two strikeouts Sunday, Raleigh hasn’t picked up a hit since blasting a two-run homer against the Twins on April 26 — that’s a span of 36 plate appearances. During that span, he drew three walks and struck out 14 times.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Mets calling up their #2 prospect AJ Ewing.  Ewing is 3 months shy of 22 years old and has only 51 plate appearances in AAA but he's getting the call to the bigs with the Mets scuffling and Luis Robert hurt.  Interesting to see how he performs.  Luis Lara is 4 months younger and has 110 more at bats than Ewing does at AAA.  They have similar AAA numbers.  

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, AdvantageSchneider said:

Mets calling up their #2 prospect AJ Ewing.  Ewing is 3 months shy of 22 years old and has only 51 plate appearances in AAA but he's getting the call to the bigs with the Mets scuffling and Luis Robert hurt.  Interesting to see how he performs.  Luis Lara is 4 months younger and has 110 more at bats than Ewing does at AAA.  They have similar AAA numbers.  

Was curious so I looked and his underlying numbers have been way better than Lara’s down in AAA.  

[AdvantageSchneider]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Was curious so I looked and his underlying numbers have been way better than Lara’s down in AAA.  

I'm curious what numbers do you think are better?  Ewing is walking as much as striking out while Lara is walking more than k'ing.  Lara's isolated power is .085 higher than Ewing.  They have about the same number of stolen bases if you include Ewing's AA steals.  Lara's wRC in AAA is 147, Ewing is 118.  Based only on AAA numbers Lara looks better IMO.  

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, AdvantageSchneider said:

I'm curious what numbers do you think are better?  Ewing is walking as much as striking out while Lara is walking more than k'ing.  Lara's isolated power is .085 higher than Ewing.  They have about the same number of stolen bases if you include Ewing's AA steals.  Lara's wRC in AAA is 147, Ewing is 118.  Based only on AAA numbers Lara looks better IMO.  

Ewing has hit the ball on much better angles than Lara. Avg LA is 16 to Lara’s 9. Barrel rate is 12% to Lara’s 6%. Those two things lead to his expected slash absolutely dwarfing Lara’s. 
 

Ewing - .319/.386/.577 for a .412 xwOBA

Lara - .222/.336/.348 for a .312 xwOBA

Basically Ewing’s contact quality has been substantially better than Lara’s.

[AdvantageSchneider]

8 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Ewing has hit the ball on much better angles than Lara. Avg LA is 16 to Lara’s 9. Barrel rate is 12% to Lara’s 6%. Those two things lead to his expected slash absolutely dwarfing Lara’s. 
 

Ewing - .319/.386/.577 for a .412 xwOBA

Lara - .222/.336/.348 for a .312 xwOBA

Basically Ewing’s contact quality has been substantially better than Lara’s.

I'll grant you that Ewing has a better launch angle over 41 at bats but Lara's EV appears to be a bit better.  Lara has 7 HR Ewing has 0.  It's hard to make an argument that Ewing's contact has been all that much better than Lara given the results.

[wiguy94]

28 minutes ago, AdvantageSchneider said:

I'll grant you that Ewing has a better launch angle over 41 at bats but Lara's EV appears to be a bit better.  Lara has 7 HR Ewing has 0.  It's hard to make an argument that Ewing's contact has been all that much better than Lara given the results.

Angles matter just as much as exit velocity. Lara hits the ball slightly harder but the vast majority of his hard contact is on the ground. Lara has 51 hard hit balls on the year. Of those 51, 28 (55%) have negative launch angle. Hitting the ball harder is good but if that contact is just being smashed into the ground it doesn’t really mean much.

Sweet spot rate is rate of batted ball between 8 and 32 LA. This is the ideal launch angle to hit a baseball for maximum damage.  Lara on sweet spot batted balls has a 95 Avg EV and 61% hard hit rate compared to Ewing’s 91 Avg EV and 43% hard hit. In that regard Lara looks much better but the difference is Lara only has only hit 23% of his batted balls on that angle compared to Ewing’s 56%.

That’s why Ewing’s contact quality and underlying numbers are far above Lara’s. It’s an angles issue not an EV issue. 
 

Lara has a .285 xwOBACON compared to Ewing’s .427. 

Here are a couple MLB players with similar xwOBACON to Lara this year - Spencer Horowitz, Luke Keaschall, Sal Frelick

Here are a couple MLB players with similar xwOBACON to Ewing this year - Brandon Lowe, Ronald Acuna, Brandon Nimmo

[AdvantageSchneider]

On 5/12/2026 at 12:02 AM, wiguy94 said:

Angles matter just as much as exit velocity. Lara hits the ball slightly harder but the vast majority of his hard contact is on the ground. Lara has 51 hard hit balls on the year. Of those 51, 28 (55%) have negative launch angle. Hitting the ball harder is good but if that contact is just being smashed into the ground it doesn’t really mean much.

Sweet spot rate is rate of batted ball between 8 and 32 LA. This is the ideal launch angle to hit a baseball for maximum damage.  Lara on sweet spot batted balls has a 95 Avg EV and 61% hard hit rate compared to Ewing’s 91 Avg EV and 43% hard hit. In that regard Lara looks much better but the difference is Lara only has only hit 23% of his batted balls on that angle compared to Ewing’s 56%.

That’s why Ewing’s contact quality and underlying numbers are far above Lara’s. It’s an angles issue not an EV issue. 
 

Lara has a .285 xwOBACON compared to Ewing’s .427. 

Here are a couple MLB players with similar xwOBACON to Lara this year - Spencer Horowitz, Luke Keaschall, Sal Frelick

Here are a couple MLB players with similar xwOBACON to Ewing this year - Brandon Lowe, Ronald Acuna, Brandon Nimmo

That doesn't seem to explain why Lara's slug and Iso and HR totals are so much better than Ewings.  Launch angle is nice and all but at some point results matter.

Ewing did have a very nice debut tonight.

[markedman5]

I’m.old enough to remember when Luis Arraez was moved to first base because he couldn’t play 2nd….   And Turang was a platinum glove winner……small ample obviously but still strange to see.
 

 

[endaround]

14 hours ago, AdvantageSchneider said:

That doesn't seem to explain why Lara's slug and Iso and HR totals are so much better than Ewings.  Launch angle is nice and all but at some point results matter.

Ewing did have a very nice debut tonight.

And that point isn't 51 PAs. Ewing dominating AA also matters.

[AdvantageSchneider]

12 hours ago, markedman5 said:

I’m.old enough to remember when Luis Arraez was moved to first base because he couldn’t play 2nd….   And Turang was a platinum glove winner……small ample obviously but still strange to see.
 

 

Fangraphs did a deep dive into this a while ago.  The video evidence seemed to indicate that Arraez was getting big credits for only slightly above average plays, except for one that seemed to be a legitimately good play.  So while his defense appears to be overstated the early results are that he has improved defensively from previous years.  

[Brian]

Kyle Schwarber hits 19 and 20, is on pace for 72 home runs.  Crazy 

[homer]

3 hours ago, Brian said:

Kyle Schwarber hits 19 and 20, is on pace for 72 home runs.  Crazy 

along with 110 BBs and 235 Ks. 

3TO is back, baby!

[homer]

11 minutes ago, homer said:

along with 110 BBs and 235 Ks. 

3TO is back, baby!

I'm sure someone can find a more recent example, but in 2012, here were Adam Dunn's numbers (w Schwarber's in parentheses):

HR% - 6.3 (9.9)

BB% - 16.2 (14.8)

SO% - 34.2 (31.5)

3TO% - 56.7 (56.2)

Russell Branyan's "magical" 2005 season for the Brewers resulted in a 3TO% of 54.1

[Brian]

15 minutes ago, homer said:

along with 110 BBs and 235 Ks. 

3TO is back, baby!

You make him sound like Gary Sanchez. LOL.

[homer]

5 minutes ago, Brian said:

Sounds like Gary Sanchez. 

Sanchez isn't actually striking out all that much this year. But there's plenty of season left!

Interestingly, he is walking way more than he has in any season of his career (18.3%). His highest walk rate before this season was 12.3% way back in 2018.

[liveforoctober]

22 minutes ago, homer said:

I'm sure someone can find a more recent example, but in 2012, here were Adam Dunn's numbers (w Schwarber's in parentheses):

HR% - 6.3 (9.9)

BB% - 16.2 (14.8)

SO% - 34.2 (31.5)

3TO% - 56.7 (56.2)

Is there an official or unofficial number we are looking for to declare someone 3TO? If there isn't can we create one? Is it just 50% we are looking for?

Re: Sanchez above.. looks like in 104 PA he has 19 BB (18.3%), 5 HR (4.8%) and 22 SO (21.1%) so his 44.2% 3TO does not meet my fabricated criteria above. 

 

*editing this to acknowledge you would need a minimum of each to qualify because Garrett Mitchell technically with his 15.8% BB, 37.9% K, and 1% HR number would break my fictitious 50% number and therefore qualify as a 3TO player this season without the power*

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

Is there an official or unofficial number we are looking for to declare someone 3TO? If there isn't can we create one? Is it just 50% we are looking for?

Re: Sanchez above.. looks like in 104 PA he has 19 BB (18.3%), 5 HR (4.8%) and 22 SO (21.1%) so his 44.2% 3TO does not meet my fabricated criteria above. 

Chris Carter’s one year in Milwaukee was above 50%. 41 HR, 76 BB, 206 SO in 644 PA for a 50.5% TTO

[sveumrules]

11 minutes ago, homer said:

I'm sure someone can find a more recent example, but in 2012, here were Adam Dunn's numbers (w Schwarber's in parentheses):

HR% - 6.3 (9.9)

BB% - 16.2 (14.8)

SO% - 34.2 (31.5)

3TO% - 56.7 (56.2)

Russell Branyan's "magical" 2005 season for the Brewers resulted in a 3TO% of 54.1

Murakami so far this year is at 18.4 BB% + 33.7 K% + 7.9 HR% for an even 60%.

 

10 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

Is there an official or unofficial number we are looking for to declare someone 3TO? If there isn't can we create one? Is it just 50% we are looking for?

Re: Sanchez above.. looks like in 104 PA he has 19 BB (18.3%), 5 HR (4.8%) and 22 SO (21.1%) so his 44.2% 3TO does not meet my fabricated criteria above. 

Rob Deer comes in at a career 49.1 3TO% (49.8% if we include his 32 HBP) so 50% is probably a good line of demarcation and we can grandfather Rob in as the Charter Member.

Not a perfect analog since ISO includes all extra base hits and not just Home Runs, but looking at the plus stats can be a good guide too.

Like Sanchez this year has a 202 BB+ (5th of 253 batters min. 100 PA) and 161 ISO+ (24th) but only a 97 K+ (124th), so I'd say he's more 2.5TO with the extreme BB and ISO rates but the slightly better than average K rate. For his career he is at 47.8% so definitely in the neighborhood.

[homer]

20 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Murakami so far this year is at 18.4 BB% + 33.7 K% + 7.9 HR% for an even 60%.

Good call. Here are this year's leaders (min 150 PAs)

Name	Team	HR%	BB%	K%	3TO
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	7.9%	18.4%	33.7%	60.0%
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	9.9%	14.8%	31.5%	56.2%
James Wood	WSN	5.7%	17.5%	31.8%	55.0%
Nick Kurtz	ATH	4.0%	20.2%	29.8%	54.0%
Aaron Judge	NYY	8.0%	17.1%	28.1%	53.3%
Ian Happ	CHC	5.2%	17.5%	30.4%	53.1%
Mike Trout	LAA	5.5%	20.1%	26.1%	51.8%

[homer]

5 minutes ago, homer said:

Good call. Here are this year's leaders (min 150 PAs)

Name	Team	HR%	BB%	K%	3TO
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	7.9%	18.4%	33.7%	60.0%
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	9.9%	14.8%	31.5%	56.2%
James Wood	WSN	5.7%	17.5%	31.8%	55.0%
Nick Kurtz	ATH	4.0%	20.2%	29.8%	54.0%
Aaron Judge	NYY	8.0%	17.1%	28.1%	53.3%
Ian Happ	CHC	5.2%	17.5%	30.4%	53.1%
Mike Trout	LAA	5.5%	20.1%	26.1%	51.8%

And if we make it 100 PA minimum, we see a familiar name:

Name	Team	HR%	BB%	K%	3TO
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	7.9%	18.4%	33.7%	60.0%
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	9.9%	14.8%	31.5%	56.2%
James Wood	WSN	5.7%	17.5%	31.8%	55.0%
Nick Kurtz	ATH	4.0%	20.2%	29.8%	54.0%
Aaron Judge	NYY	8.0%	17.1%	28.1%	53.3%
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	0.7%	15.4%	37.1%	53.1%
Ian Happ	CHC	5.2%	17.5%	30.4%	53.1%
Mike Trout	LAA	5.5%	20.1%	26.1%	51.8%
Rhys Hoskins	CLE	3.1%	21.3%	26.8%	51.2%
Yoán Moncada	LAA	2.4%	13.0%	35.0%	50.4%

[LouisEly]

It's usually not a bad thing to be on a list sandwiched between Aaron Judge and Mike Trout.

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, homer said:

And if we make it 100 PA minimum, we see a familiar name:

Name	Team	HR%	BB%	K%	3TO
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	7.9%	18.4%	33.7%	60.0%
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	9.9%	14.8%	31.5%	56.2%
James Wood	WSN	5.7%	17.5%	31.8%	55.0%
Nick Kurtz	ATH	4.0%	20.2%	29.8%	54.0%
Aaron Judge	NYY	8.0%	17.1%	28.1%	53.3%
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	0.7%	15.4%	37.1%	53.1%
Ian Happ	CHC	5.2%	17.5%	30.4%	53.1%
Mike Trout	LAA	5.5%	20.1%	26.1%	51.8%
Rhys Hoskins	CLE	3.1%	21.3%	26.8%	51.2%
Yoán Moncada	LAA	2.4%	13.0%	35.0%	50.4%

All Mitchell has to do is lower his K-rate 7 points and raise his HR rate 7 points and he's basically Aaron Judge. It's truly that easy.