NL Central Discussion 2026

[Underachiever]

Imagine Brewerfanatic if the Brewers lost six in a row, with three of them to the Cubs in walk-offs. Add in a 1-0 loss to Pittsburgn when the Pirates scored their run in the bottom of the 8th. Redszone is a pretty depressed place right now. First to last in a week.

[Frisbee Slider]

12 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Imagine Brewerfanatic if the Brewers lost six in a row, with three of them to the Cubs in walk-offs. Add in a 1-0 loss to Pittsburgn when the Pirates scored their run in the bottom of the 8th. Redszone is a pretty depressed place right now. First to last in a week.

Those are great points. That was a very fast regression to expectations for Cincinnati. Still significantly over performing their Pythagorean record.

[adambr2]

59 minutes ago, igor67 said:

If the goal is the World Series there is an argument that facing the Dodgers right away might be the best path. Just have to sneak in 2 road wins...

Last year was kind of the big monkey off our back. I can’t tell you how unsatisfying the end of last season would have been if we had lost game 5 to the Cubs. But, we didn’t. Got the monkey off our back, got rid of the “they can’t win a playoff series” talk, and did it against our hated rivals. 

The Dodgers series sucked, but I was pretty much at peace with whatever happened at that point.

I’m ok with however we can get into the playoffs every year at this point. Just get in and hope the randomness of baseball finally swings in our direction one of these Octobers.

One thing about last year is that it really felt like the gap has widened between the teams with deep pockets and the teams without deep pockets since our last deep run in 2018. But maybe that’s just the Dodgers going on a bender at the worst possible time for everyone else. Or, maybe it’s something that will be addressed in the new CBA.

[jay87shot]

The Cubs just lost Matthew Boyd which hurt their depth but he was struggling so much it might be a blessing in disguise. They have 11 offensive players worth over 0.5 WAR but only 1 pitcher. It will be interesting to see how that team holds up, the have been good offensively but not dominant and there bullpen has held up well despite not having high end arms after Palencia and Brown.

[Underachiever]

6 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

It will be interesting to see how that team holds up, the have been good offensively but not dominant and there bullpen has held up well despite not having high end arms after Palencia and Brown.

Looking at Fangraphs, Cubs have a 121 WRC+ as a team (2nd to the Dodgers at 123). They are 4th in MLB in OPS, 4th in SLG, 1st in OBP, 4th in BA, 5th in HR, and 2nd in runs scored. They are first in WAR. That's pretty close to dominant in 2026 MLB in my mind.

[tmwiese55]

And that is with Busch and PCA generally being bad so far this year.  Some of the other regulars are a notch above what you'd expect but nothing extremely fluky since they're all generally good hitters.   Cubs are gonna be there all year. 

But their pitching has been destroyed by injuries, really not sure how their pitching can hold up all year without some good trades.  And of course, I have no real idea on if they have unknown AAA guys with promise like we do every year

[jay87shot]

32 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Looking at Fangraphs, Cubs have a 121 WRC+ as a team (2nd to the Dodgers at 123). They are 4th in MLB in OPS, 4th in SLG, 1st in OBP, 4th in BA, 5th in HR, and 2nd in runs scored. They are first in WAR. That's pretty close to dominant in 2026 MLB in my mind.

I didnt look up data but like tmwiese55 said Busch, PCA, Swanson, and even Bregman are producing below expectations. Each guy has a 100 or higher ops+ but all are under .250 batting averages. Overall production is good because that lineup is so deep but they do have some more upside.

[sveumrules]

PCA has a 97 wRC+ currently and a 98 wRC+ for his career, Dansby is at a 102 wRC+ currently and a 101 wRC+ from 2023 to 2025...there might be a little upside there but Bregman (98 wRC+ vs 122 wRC+ last three years) and Busch (104 wRC+ currently vs 129 wRC+ last two years) are the only real under-performers to this point for the Cubs.

Meanwhile they've got Hoerner (129 wRC+ so far vs 106 wRC+ last five years), Happ (149 wRC+ so far vs 117 wRC+ last five years), Suzuki (160 wRC+ so far vs 127 wRC+ last four years), Carson Kelly (140 wRC+ so far vs 115 wRC+ career high last year), and Michael Conforto (160 wRC+ vs 99 wRC+ last five years) who are over-performing their established baselines to pretty large extents.

Guys like Ballesteros (153 wRC+) and Shaw (120 wRC+) don't really have established track records but are probably both above their true talent level at the moment as well.

[Underachiever]

Imagine having a lineup where your underperformers have a WRC+ at 97 or better. That's quite a standard to hold the Cubs to. I'd hate for them to become dominant. Brewers team WRC+ is 98.

[Brewcrew82]

I think it's fair to say that as long as two of Joey Ortiz, David Hamilton, and Luis Rengifo are consistently in the lineup, the Cubs will have the overall advantage at the plate. Brewers do have a path to somewhat negating this imo with their high end upside if Chourio and Turang can sustain their current level of performance, which the metrics suggest they can to a significant degree.

Defense is basically a wash between the two clubs as both are elite by DRS. Though, PCA in CF probably gives the Cubs a slight advantage as none of the Brewers OFers are at that level. 

Where the Brewers make up ground right now is their pitching, especially their starting pitching, where the Cubs are absolutely decimated due to injury. Brewers pitchers miss way more bats than the Cubs to begin with. 

I don't know why anyone wouldn't think at this stage of the season it won't end up being a battle to the end between these two clubs. Exactly the way it's been the last three years, with the onus on the Cubs to unseat the three time defending champions. Both should be playoff teams regardless.

[Brian]

Cubs now have 2 ten game winning streaks already this season. 😢 Yikes! 

 

[Frisbee Slider]

On 5/8/2026 at 10:05 PM, Brian said:

Cubs now have 2 ten game winning streaks already this season. 😢 Yikes! 

 

And still only two games up in the loss column.

[Brian]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

And still only two games up in the loss column.

And Cubs play the Braves next who are 28-13.  Braves are quietly winning so far this season. 

[Lathund]

Cubs are a good team who will be in the running for the division. But let's all remember that no team is ever truly as good as they appear during a winning streak; or as bad as they seem during a losing one. They've benefited from having played the most home games, playing those home games in cold weather where their HR prone pitchers (Imanaga in particular) don't get shown up, they've played one of the weakest schedules in baseball, and they're outperforming their run differential. 

Again that's not to say they aren't a good team, just that they're not really ahead of the Brewers or a true WS contender like their recent hot streak and their division lead might have you believe. Definitely will be harder to win the division this year than last though.