Fangraphs - Remaining Standings Projections

[Jirsch]

Fangraphs has the team winning the division by 9 games when it is all said and done....53-46 the rest of the way is entirely doable from my chair....thoughts??

 

[sveumrules]

For the nine completed full seasons since Stearns/Arnold arrived in 2016 the Brewers have beaten their preseason FG projected win totals by an MLB best 87 wins.

Eight of the nine years were over (2022 the only under), with five of those at +12 or more and on pace for another double digit overage this year (they were at 83 W).

Going back to 2023 their seasonal runs per game differential has been +0.50 then +0.84 then +1.06 and now +1.67 so far this year. Those projections above are showing +0.28 run per game differential over the remaining 99 games.

I don't expect them to maintain their current 103 Win pace, but I also don't think the fall off will be quite as steep as FanGraphs is projecting.

[igor67]

Still seems a bit conservative looking in particular at the Run differential, I'd say 95 wins still gives us some regression, but not a huge amount. It's also a one that would make it very tough for another central team to catch us.

[cragi]

Very doable but also expect a rival to make a bigger run