Luis Lara Extended for Reported 7 years/$31 million

[markedman5]

 

[markedman5]

https://www.mlb.com/video/luis-lara-on-signing-7-year-contract-with-brewers

[wallus]

He said he has been training with the Contreras brothers, hopefully more with William.

[markedman5]

Contreras was proud of the Brewers for giving him this contract……..cool stuff

 

[nate82]

4 hours ago, markedman5 said:

Contreras was proud of the Brewers for giving him this contract……..cool stuff

 

Lara worked out with Wilson and William Contreras during the offseason.  

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I know that the Yelich contract hasn’t worked well for us… but I’d still be in favor of extending Will Bill and Turang, even if it costs us something

with deferrals now being a thing… being able to hang on to elite position players, mixed with our incoming talent and hopefully a pipeline of continuously young pitching… one can dream

[sveumrules]

Just now, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

I know that the Yelich contract hasn’t worked well for us… but I’d still be in favor of extending Will Bill and Turang, even if it costs us something

Yelich's extension started in 2022.

From 2022 to 2025 he was paid $88M after deferrals for 2,262 PA of 123 wRC+ and 11.4 WAR, that is easily in the black considering how much teams have been paying for wins in free agency recently.

The Brewers also won the 5th most games in MLB from 2022 to 2025 including three Division Titles and a trip to the NLCS.

How hasn't it worked out well?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

4 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Yelich's extension started in 2022.

From 2022 to 2025 he was paid $88M after deferrals for 2,262 PA of 123 wRC+ and 11.4 WAR, that is easily in the black considering how much teams have been paying for wins in free agency recently.

The Brewers also won the 5th most games in MLB from 2022 to 2025 including three Division Titles and a trip to the NLCS.

How hasn't it worked out well?

I take it back.  Given his lack of being “clutch” in the playoffs, we’re probably harder on the guy than numbers would support.

i think it’s fair to say that Yelich’s inability to play in the field now though will hurt some of his value.

[torts]

49 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Yelich's extension started in 2022.

From 2022 to 2025 he was paid $88M after deferrals for 2,262 PA of 123 wRC+ and 11.4 WAR, that is easily in the black considering how much teams have been paying for wins in free agency recently.

The Brewers also won the 5th most games in MLB from 2022 to 2025 including three Division Titles and a trip to the NLCS.

How hasn't it worked out well?

He hasn't won a world series yet, what a bum

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

I take it back.  Given his lack of being “clutch” in the playoffs, we’re probably harder on the guy than numbers would support.

i think it’s fair to say that Yelich’s inability to play in the field now though will hurt some of his value.

No doubt he’s been bad or absent during the last two postseasons but I kind of look at that as extra credit.

Could see dinging him from like a B in regular season value down to like to a B-/C+.

Being DH only limits the roster flexibility some for sure, but as long as he’s putting up 500 PA with a 120 wRC+ as one of the few DH that isn’t a big negative on the bases he’s at least earning his money.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

They must feel the new CBA will see a cut in player control, so trying to get ahead of that as much as possible with Pratt, Lara...probably Made next. By the time these kick in Yelich, etc gone. Only issue is at some point one of these guys is going to bust. Have to hope they hit more than bust. 

[rickh150]

My favorite stat, along with the above average defense for both Pratt and Lara, is that their walk rate is around the same or better than their K rate.. Both have to be key reasons for the early contracts. The floor is high. And there is Brewer speed there too.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

COTS posted contractual details: Seems very low risk in case his bat does not pan out.  $7M in 2032 would not be crazy 4th OF money for a guy with a great glove and good speed.  The option years are very reasonable and likely to be used.  This is surprisingly "front loaded", at least in relative terms.

Luis Lara cf
7 years/$31M (2026-32), plus 2033-35 options

• 7 years/$31M (2026-32), plus 2033-35 club options
  • signed extension with Milwaukee 6/10/26
  • $2M signing bonus, paid within 60 days of contract approval
  • 26:$2M, 27:$2M, 28:$3M, 29:$4M, 30:$5M, 31:$6M, 32:$7M, 33:$10M club option (no buyout), 34:$11M club option ($2M buyout), 35:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
  • option salaries may increase based on awards: $2M each for MVP, $1M for 2-5 finish in MVP vote, $500,000 for 4-5 finish, $250,000 for 6-10 finish, $200,000 for Gold Glove, All Star election / selection

 

[igor67]

Are the later year buyouts guaranteed? Specifically if the Brewers declined the 33 option would they still have to pay them? It doesn't have a huge impact on the value of the deal. The 'front loading' I would think is part of the appeal for sure. Yes he had a good signing bonus, but he is going to have millions more in the bank then he would have if he waited for Arbitration and then the big FA deal. Looking at the breakdown and its almost certainly more raw income until at least 2031 this way.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

27 minutes ago, igor67 said:

Are the later year buyouts guaranteed? Specifically if the Brewers declined the 33 option would they still have to pay them? It doesn't have a huge impact on the value of the deal. The 'front loading' I would think is part of the appeal for sure. Yes he had a good signing bonus, but he is going to have millions more in the bank then he would have if he waited for Arbitration and then the big FA deal. Looking at the breakdown and its almost certainly more raw income until at least 2031 this way.

Typically, if they decline an option, they dont have to pay future years buyouts, but that is all driven by the contract.  Can't think of a case where that happened.

[Thurston Fluff]

16 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Yelich's extension started in 2022.

From 2022 to 2025 he was paid $88M after deferrals for 2,262 PA of 123 wRC+ and 11.4 WAR, that is easily in the black considering how much teams have been paying for wins in free agency recently.

The Brewers also won the 5th most games in MLB from 2022 to 2025 including three Division Titles and a trip to the NLCS.

How hasn't it worked out well?

While I agree with you for the most part the one thing I think is wrong is determining his value based on how much free agents of his value got paid. The most expensive way to attain players is not the best way to go about determining value. If the choice was to use the same money we can use for Contreras the next ten years or lock up four or five of our best prospects for the next ten years I think the better value is for the latter. 

All that said, of all the players that could signed to a "locked up for life" contract Contreras is very high on my list.

I do question if his leadership is special to him or if it's more young players gravitate to older players by nature. Adames was one of those guys but we didn't miss a beat when he left. One might say that's because we had Contreras and/or Yelich to take over that role. But that would more or less show the role is transitional as opposed to fixed on a player. By the time Contreras and Yelich are gone Churio will be the veteran younger players turn to and so on.

[Roderick]

On 6/9/2026 at 5:10 PM, igor67 said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-are-teams-paying-for-a-win-in-free-agency-2026-edition/

Lists the going Free Agent rate for bench players at 6.5 million per WAR.

Blake Perkins currently has 3.4 WAR. 

So roughly speaking Perkins has produced 22 million in value for the Crew and that is probably about the worst case scenario for Lara at this stage, so yes this is a fantastic deal given the breakout he has had on offense this year.

The Brewers need to have bench players that are making min.wage or close enough.  If Lara is still the 4th OF in 2029, they are going to be looking to unload this contract to save payroll. 

I'm not against the contract as the gamble is, if he is very good, those option years are going to be very valuable either to us or in trade value.

[SeaBass]

6 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

All that said, of all the players that could signed to a "locked up for life" contract Contreras is very high on my list.

I really like Wild Bill, most Brewers fans do. The problem is he's a catcher. I don't value catchers past age 30. More importantly, I think the Brewers have shown they do not either.

I was prepared to come into this comment saying "If Contreras aged like Yadi Molina, then I'd take it." Because my perception was that Molina actually improved offensively in his 30s.

Then I went to FanGraphs and was proven (mostly) wrong.

Yadi Molina (age): wRC+/WAR
2012 (29): 138/7.5
2013 (30): 133/7.2
2014 (31): 102/3.2
2015 (32): 81/2.4
2016 (33): 114/4.5
2017 (34): 95/2.5
2018 (35): 105/2.7
2019 (36): 88/1.9
2020 (37): 83/0.7
2021 (38): 81/1.5
2022 (39): 49/0.2
2023 out of baseball

He still produced 2.5 to 4.5 WAR through age 35 even as his wRC+ sank to more average levels but he was also one of the best defensive catchers in MLB history. He was getting WAR in the 4.5 to 7 range in the half decade prior to age 31. All in all though, he gave the Cardinals mostly productive seasons late into his 30s.

I just don't think many here would be loving 80 wRC+ offense from Contreras judging how they are reacting to it this season. So let's take a look at him.

William Contreras (age): wRC+/fWAR
2022 (24): 139/2.0 - his last season with ATL
2023 (25): 126/5.8
2024 (26): 132/5.5
2025 (27): 113/3.6
2026 (28): 107/1.6 (so far)

Doesn't look like it's trending the right way to me. He's trending to be about a 3ish WAR player this season, maybe he can reach 4 WAR. He had 3.6 WAR last season and is already down from his peak seasons.

I don't know what an extension would look like, maybe he would agree to a number the Brewers would find reasonable. I wouldn't want to sign him past his age 33 season though. That would be a 4 year extension. So maybe? I get the feeling though that he probably could get more on the open market than the Brewers would like to pay and maybe more years too.

Just for giggles I also looked up the last two star catchers the Brewers had before Contreras.

Jonathan Lucroy (age): wRC+/fWAR
2016 (30): 123/4.4 - Last season with MIL (traded to TEX mid season)
2017 (31): 80/0.0
2018 (32): 72/0.3
2019 (33): 74/-0.3
2020 & 2021 he played 8 games total and was out of baseball

Yasmani Grandal (age): wRC+/fWAR
2019 (30): 121/5.7 - Only season with MIL
2020 (31): 114/1.6 - Signed FA deal with CHW at 4 years $73M
2021 (32): 157/3.6
2022 (33): 68/-0.5
2023 (34): 80/0.0
2024 (35): 95/1.3 - .700 OPS, 9 HR, 26 R, 27 RBI in 72 games for PIT
2025 out of baseball after a brief minor league stay with BOS

I feel like these two guys are more realistic. Lucroy had the bad luck of declining just before he hit FA and never signed a big contract but Grandal cashed in and had two decent seasons before decline after his age 32 season.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Great post SeaBass.  My question (beyond the intangibles already discussed about being a mentor for the younger guys) would be what effect WC has had on really an unprecedented level of success with our pitching the last 3.5 seasons?

if we could do a 4/90 extension with a $10m buyout and $25 million option for a 5th year that  effectively makes this a 4/100, would you do it?  Not saying that would be enough

would keep WC with this group of pitchers through our window, and would allow the rising young players to take our offense to another level.

i would love to sign WC and Turang to pair with our young/cheap players, but realistically BT is going to get 10/250 and we will have a ready made replacement by then (pun intended)… looking at the list of MLB catcher contracts, it doesn’t seem like WC would get the same years as maybe a shortstop, pitcher, or outfielder would.

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, SeaBass said:

I really like Wild Bill, most Brewers fans do. The problem is he's a catcher. I don't value catchers past age 30. More importantly, I think the Brewers have shown they do not either.

I was prepared to come into this comment saying "If Contreras aged like Yadi Molina, then I'd take it." Because my perception was that Molina actually improved offensively in his 30s.

Then I went to FanGraphs and was proven (mostly) wrong.

Yadi Molina (age): wRC+/WAR
2012 (29): 138/7.5
2013 (30): 133/7.2
2014 (31): 102/3.2
2015 (32): 81/2.4
2016 (33): 114/4.5
2017 (34): 95/2.5
2018 (35): 105/2.7
2019 (36): 88/1.9
2020 (37): 83/0.7
2021 (38): 81/1.5
2022 (39): 49/0.2
2023 out of baseball

He still produced 2.5 to 4.5 WAR through age 35 even as his wRC+ sank to more average levels but he was also one of the best defensive catchers in MLB history. He was getting WAR in the 4.5 to 7 range in the half decade prior to age 31. All in all though, he gave the Cardinals mostly productive seasons late into his 30s.

I just don't think many here would be loving 80 wRC+ offense from Contreras judging how they are reacting to it this season. So let's take a look at him.

William Contreras (age): wRC+/fWAR
2022 (24): 139/2.0 - his last season with ATL
2023 (25): 126/5.8
2024 (26): 132/5.5
2025 (27): 113/3.6
2026 (28): 107/1.6 (so far)

Doesn't look like it's trending the right way to me. He's trending to be about a 3ish WAR player this season, maybe he can reach 4 WAR. He had 3.6 WAR last season and is already down from his peak seasons.

I don't know what an extension would look like, maybe he would agree to a number the Brewers would find reasonable. I wouldn't want to sign him past his age 33 season though. That would be a 4 year extension. So maybe? I get the feeling though that he probably could get more on the open market than the Brewers would like to pay and maybe more years too.

Just for giggles I also looked up the last two star catchers the Brewers had before Contreras.

Jonathan Lucroy (age): wRC+/fWAR
2016 (30): 123/4.4 - Last season with MIL (traded to TEX mid season)
2017 (31): 80/0.0
2018 (32): 72/0.3
2019 (33): 74/-0.3
2020 & 2021 he played 8 games total and was out of baseball

Yasmani Grandal (age): wRC+/fWAR
2019 (30): 121/5.7 - Only season with MIL
2020 (31): 114/1.6 - Signed FA deal with CHW at 4 years $73M
2021 (32): 157/3.6
2022 (33): 68/-0.5
2023 (34): 80/0.0
2024 (35): 95/1.3 - .700 OPS, 9 HR, 26 R, 27 RBI in 72 games for PIT
2025 out of baseball after a brief minor league stay with BOS

I feel like these two guys are more realistic. Lucroy had the bad luck of declining just before he hit FA and never signed a big contract but Grandal cashed in and had two decent seasons before decline after his age 32 season.

 

Just to be clear, when I said he's high on my list it's within the context of the one I'd most be in favor of not that I'm in favor of signing any of them. That aside, you've given me ample reason to question my preference list. 

[Playing Catch]

When I watch Contreras, I see a guy that gives the team every single pitch. Every single pitch he's involved with, he gives his best, and gives it to the team's benefit. I think it was that kind of work ethic, and even-keeled leadership (but obviously a driven competitor), that made Molina so valuable [puke].

Contreras will age, and it will show in his surface stats, but he competes with the team in front of him, and takes what that team gives him, to maximize every pitch. When he gets into his 30's he's still going to give the team tough as nails ABs, and while things like pop-time and framing may decline as well, it's really hard to evaluate and quantify the value his calm leadership style offers the pitching staff, and team as a whole.

Like the Yelich contract, I think whoever gives Contreras his next deal will end up being very happy with what they get from the player, not because it is a guarantee of a ROI, but rather a near-guarantee that the player will give you everything they've got.

[TURBO]

20 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

if we could do a 4/90 extension with a $10m buyout and $25 million option for a 5th year that  effectively makes this a 4/100, would you do it? 

I would, and not even think twice.

His contribution is invaluable to this team, and even though his counting stats will slip with age, I still think he'd be worth it with all the other tings he brings to the table.

Now, if Quero suddenly takes a turn, and starts to become the player we thought he'd be, then I'd reconsider.  Personally, I think that isn't going to happen, and that saddens me.