The Miz window

[cragi]

Starting to wonder if having arguably the best pitcher in baseball for several years might result in a slight shift in the conservative FO strategy. Might not have a window like this once he is gone, given the value of aces in the postseason

[brewmann04]

They didn’t move when we had Burnes  woody and Freddie 

[cragi]

Woody and Burnes were a great combo but i dont think they had enough pieces and depth for a legit shot. And Miz seems next level.

[umphrey]

Burnes in 2021 actually carried a lower FIP than Mis has now through 167 innings. Not trying to rain in the Mis parade but that was a great season. 

[SF70]

1 hour ago, umphrey said:

Burnes in 2021 actually carried a lower FIP than Mis has now through 167 innings. Not trying to rain in the Mis parade but that was a great season. 

Miz right now is the most dominant starter in BL history and is not only a tier above ‘21 Burnes but every starter who has ever pitched. Add Skubal and this team will be virtually unbeatable in the postseason with a Miz-Skubal-Harrison trio of starters.

I’d add a closer-type arm as well and win this thing with pitching.

The timing for these moves seem right to me — Miz is healthy and will be protected by the team to the best of their ability to get him to the postseason healthy. A pitcher of Skubal’s ilk that can get acquired by this SM team is extremely rare and imo, warrants an overpay in prospects, of which under normal circumstances I’m loath to do, but this seems like a “perfect-storm” season in which to spend the prospect-capital and the $10/11M.

[cragi]

acquiring Skubal would also result in frequent sellouts the rest of the way. Between that and the merch sales increase, the money thing would likely take care of itself.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

Miz right now is the most dominant starter in BL history and is not only a tier above ‘21 Burnes but every starter who has ever pitched. Add Skubal and this team will be virtually unbeatable in the postseason with a Miz-Skubal-Harrison trio of starters.

I’d add a closer-type arm as well and win this thing with pitching.

The timing for these moves seem right to me — Miz is healthy and will be protected by the team to the best of their ability to get him to the postseason healthy. A pitcher of Skubal’s ilk that can get acquired by this SM team is extremely rare and imo, warrants an overpay in prospects, of which under normal circumstances I’m loath to do, but this seems like a “perfect-storm” season in which to spend the prospect-capital and the $10/11M.

Unpopular opinion maybe, but I’d be willing to deal Fischer for Skubal.

First, because that kind of a K rate for a college pick in high A scares me to death. Idea would be to capitalize on his stock before those issues inevitably start to catch up to him at higher levels.

Second, because the left side of the infield looks set for the foreseeable future for the Brewers in light of the Pratt extension. Made’s likely presence at 3B relegated Fischer to 1B, which just isn’t as valuable and where the Brewers have several other options. 

[SF70]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Unpopular opinion maybe, but I’d be willing to deal Fischer for Skubal.

First, because that kind of a K rate for a college pick in high A scares me to death. Idea would be to capitalize on his stock before those issues inevitably start to catch up to him at higher levels.

Second, because the left side of the infield looks set for the foreseeable future for the Brewers in light of the Pratt extension. Made’s likely presence at 3B relegated Fischer to 1B, which just isn’t as valuable and where the Brewers have several other options. 

I’m willing to trade any of our prospects but Made.

We have drafted and mined internationally better than any team in baseball over the last few years which has created the deepest group of prospects in baseball — that, in combination with a young and controlled, extremely talented BL team, affords us the opportunity to win now without jeopardizing the future. 

We have another extremely talented DSL group along with a really talented ACL team, so more waves of prospects are on the way. And even if we don’t continue to procure amateur talent like we have recently, we have lots of BL pitching talent we can sell off down the road to restock.

i’ve never felt better about spending prospect capital to improve the big league team than I do right now.

[liveforoctober]

25 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Unpopular opinion maybe, but I’d be willing to deal Fischer for Skubal.

First, because that kind of a K rate for a college pick in high A scares me to death. Idea would be to capitalize on his stock before those issues inevitably start to catch up to him at higher levels.

Second, because the left side of the infield looks set for the foreseeable future for the Brewers in light of the Pratt extension. Made’s likely presence at 3B relegated Fischer to 1B, which just isn’t as valuable and where the Brewers have several other options. 

Fischer + what though is the question. If we could get Skubal for Fischer straight up I'd walk to Appleton now to help him pack his bags.

I'm guessing Fischer would be the 2nd piece in any deal for Skubal. We have half a dozen guys ranked in the Top 100 they would probably be trying to get as the main piece.

[Brewcrew82]

36 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

Fischer + what though is the question. If we could get Skubal for Fischer straight up I'd walk to Appleton now to help him pack his bags.

I'm guessing Fischer would be the 2nd piece in any deal for Skubal. We have half a dozen guys ranked in the Top 100 they would probably be trying to get as the main piece.

Fischer and Jett Williams? Maybe would have to add Bishop Letson. 

I’d do that. 

[wallus]

For any rental, I wouldn't do more than one top 10 prospect and another 11-20. 

Our system is the best in baseball.

[Playing Catch]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

Miz right now is the most dominant starter in BL [sic] history and is not only a tier above ‘21 Burnes but every starter who has ever pitched.

This is arguably true with the surface-level performances over time, but certainly true comparing his game to other dominant games in MLB history. Last night's game was the first Game Score of 100 I can remember seeing in a while. I think the historical comparisons are fair. Obviously, if a pitcher is matching/outdoing what we're seeing from the greats of recent vintage, like Skenes, Sanchez, Scherzer, DeGrom, etc., that alone says a lot about how special they've been. But I think the question, though, is if he's performing like Bob Gibson in '68? MLB is a pretty offensively challenged league in 2026 so far. With that said, so much of the reason that it's a depressed offensive environment is because never before have pitchers thrown with such dominant ability and intent. It's probably time to compare his fastball with other sport-breaking superlatives that required rules changes to their respective games.

Even though he pitched like Cy Young last night, though, doesn't mean he'll be Don Larson in a playoff series.

Any team that's going into a playoff series with a guy that's capable of putting up a HOF-level performance like last night, is going to have a good advantage.

But I don't think that it changes the math on how to pursue "the window". In fact, I just don't believe in windows. I think Attanasio and the Brewers organization merely opened doors and walked through them, and they'll need to keep opening those doors going forward regardless of the style of winning in which the front office decides to operate.

Based on their extensions to Pratt and Lara, I suspect that the Brewers (and probably most of the teams) have a lot of concern about how the upcoming CBA could impact which doors they try to unlock next.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

This thread makes me happy :)

[SF70]

6 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

This is arguably true with the surface-level performances over time, but certainly true comparing his game to other dominant games in MLB history. Last night's game was the first Game Score of 100 I can remember seeing in a while. I think the historical comparisons are fair. Obviously, if a pitcher is matching/outdoing what we're seeing from the greats of recent vintage, like Skenes, Sanchez, Scherzer, DeGrom, etc., that alone says a lot about how special they've been. But I think the question, though, is if he's performing like Bob Gibson in '68? MLB is a pretty offensively challenged league in 2026 so far. With that said, so much of the reason that it's a depressed offensive environment is because never before have pitchers thrown with such dominant ability and intent. It's probably time to compare his fastball with other sport-breaking superlatives that required rules changes to their respective games.

Even though he pitched like Cy Young last night, though, doesn't mean he'll be Don Larson in a playoff series.

Any team that's going into a playoff series with a guy that's capable of putting up a HOF-level performance like last night, is going to have a good advantage.

But I don't think that it changes the math on how to pursue "the window". In fact, I just don't believe in windows. I think Attanasio and the Brewers organization merely opened doors and walked through them, and they'll need to keep opening those doors going forward regardless of the style of winning in which the front office decides to operate.

Based on their extensions to Pratt and Lara, I suspect that the Brewers (and probably most of the teams) have a lot of concern about how the upcoming CBA could impact which doors they try to unlock next.

With this FO I’ve been a big proponent of the no window, perpetual contention strategy — but — having a starter that is as unhittable as Miz is right now changes things for me. His health is all that matters and right now he’s healthy and if that’s still the case August 3rd, I hope my team does everything in their power to add Skubal in an attempt to win a title this year. 

The D-backs did this 25 years ago with Johnson-Shilling and Miz-Skubal would arguably be even more dominant.

[BrewerFan]

12 hours ago, umphrey said:

Burnes in 2021 actually carried a lower FIP than Mis has now through 167 innings. Not trying to rain in the Mis parade but that was a great season. 

Ok... but why are we comparing last year and this year from Mis to just Burnes best year?

 

8 hours ago, SF70 said:

I’m willing to trade any of our prospects but Made.

I wouldn't, but I understand where you're coming from. Pena is soo talented and then Braylon Payne is so undervalued that he's the one guy I'd take off the table... at least as long as he's valued as being not one of our top 10 prospects and outside the top 100. 

His upside is... just enormous and IMO 3rd behind just Made and Pena... it's just I do not think his value reflects that. 
It's probably more likely that he ends up  a 4th OFer, but with his speed, frame, the power he's already showing and he's still just 19. He could easily add 20 pounds of good weight over the next 2 years, turn into a GG left fielder and if he can improve that hit tool juuust a bit, be a .265/.380/.500 type hitter who has 30/30 tools. Again, not likely, we know "toolsy" OFers often miss, but I like him too much.

 

I get that may be counter intuitive, but... I just don't think the trade value matches his potential and would prefer Fischer/Jett who are both more highly regarded. I think the Tigers would inside on a top 3 prospect, another guy who is at least in that ~10 range and then a 3rd piece like Letson, Hardin, Knoth(another guy I wouldn't move due to his value relative to upside). 

 

Luke Adams and Brock Willken though... throw them into the deal as we pretty much have to either trade or add them or someone will surely take them each this off-season. 

[umphrey]

I didn’t mean last year, 87 IP of Mis vs 167 of Burnes. And I’m just saying that it’s not like we haven’t been here before, we were here 5 years ago (lucky to see great pitchers in this era of Brewers baseball).