The Brewers’ Biggest Need This Trade Deadline is Clear

[Cory Sparks]

Image courtesy of © Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

The Milwaukee Brewers have a dire need at this year's MLB trade deadline. Even though they’re dominating the National League Central and look to be well-positioned pennant contenders yet again, they have an obvious hole in their roster that must be addressed to be taken seriously. They need one more starting pitcher. While they have a couple of elite starters—one from each side—the quality of their mid-rotation depth is a looming potential issue that could come back to bite the Crew in a five- or seven-game series.

Let’s start with the promising part of the rotation. Jacob Misiorowski continues to wow the baseball world every time he toes the rubber. The hard-throwing right-handed pitcher has clocked his fastball at 105 miles per hour, with above-average extension. He's building a resume that may lead to a National League Cy Young Award at season’s end. Logging an 8-3 record with a minuscule 1.45 ERA and 138 strikeouts over just 93 innings pitched, the former second-round draft selection is truly in a league of his own.

Kyle Harrison has been spectacular in his own right, and he’d be an ace on the majority of MLB teams right now. The former Boston Red Sox southpaw is currently sporting an 8-1 record with a remarkable 2.50 ERA, a mark that would be substantially lower if not for an odd start in a hitter-friendly environment in Las Vegas. Harrison’s four-pitch arsenal has proved to be effective, with his fastball (.221) and slurve (.141) both garnering very low opponent batting averages. While these two starters have been in the top tier league-wide, though, a playoff series typically demands four quality arms. They might have that many; they might not.

Brandon Sproat was a pivotal piece in the return package the Brewers got in exchange for Freddy Peralta. While he has had his fair share of impressive starts (including a six-inning sscoreless outing and 10 strikeouts on June 23), the struggles have been there. Sproat possesses a six-pitch mix, but his only above-average Baseball Savant metrics are his strikeout rate (24.7%) and average fastball velocity (96.4 MPH).  The former Mets farmhand is 2-4 with a 5.43 earned run average over 13 starts. While he has the arsenal to be part of this pitching staff for years to come, there’s plenty of work to be done before he can be trusted in a playoff-like atmosphere.

Logan Henderson had a great start to this season, becoming the first pitcher in the Stathead database (dating back to 1898) to allow two runs or fewer in each of his first 10 career starts. While his game is more based on an expanded pitch arsenal than sheer velocity, he’s on the 15-day IL with a lower back strain. If he can come back healthy, he could be a solid third starter in a playoff series—but that's a huge 'if' right now.

Speaking of huge 'if's, Brandon Woodruff, when healthy, is one of the best pitchers in the bigs. In his first start in just over two months, he fired six shutout innings with just one hit allowed, no walks and a season-high 10 punchouts. The problem? He was recovering from a classic case of “dead arm”, and his fastball velocity is down drastically. We've all watched him pitch brilliantly since returning last July from 21 months of rehab on his shoulder, despite that diminished velocity. We've also seen him rendered unavailable right on the cusp of the postseason over and over.

While Sproat has the intangibles, Henderson had a red-hot start and Woodruff is reliable as they come when healthy, the Brewers do not have four reliable postseason starters at the moment. They're remarkably deep, with the likes of Shane Drohan, Robert Gasser and Chad Patrick also showing flashes of being above-average starters, but those guys come with at least as many questions as Sproat, Henderson and Woodruff do.

The drop-off behind Misiorowski and Harrison is drastic. If the Brewers get a chance to acquire a third surefire stud to round out the playoff rotation, they should strongly consider it.

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[Spaul149]

I think they need a 3B who can slug more than a SP. You only need 3 SP in the playoffs (1 BP game in NLCS and WS). Brewers have Miz, Harrision, and Woody. If Woody doesn't come back you still have Henderson. The problem is there isn't likely a rental slugging 3B out there.

[Brian]

19 hours ago, Spaul149 said:

I think they need a 3B who can slug more than a SP. You only need 3 SP in the playoffs (1 BP game in NLCS and WS). Brewers have Miz, Harrision, and Woody. If Woody doesn't come back you still have Henderson. The problem is there isn't likely a rental slugging 3B out there.

I actually think we need both because one injury to any pitcher during the season and we could be cooked.  We have only played 78 games of 162.  Season is not even 1/2 over, with still 84 games to go before the playoffs even begin. 

[JoeyWiemerTruther]

2 hours ago, Spaul149 said:

I think they need a 3B who can slug more than a SP. You only need 3 SP in the playoffs (1 BP game in NLCS and WS). Brewers have Miz, Harrision, and Woody. If Woody doesn't come back you still have Henderson. The problem is there isn't likely a rental slugging 3B out there.

Trusting Woody to stay healthy is certainly a choice. I think they should still trade for another starter and then have Woody as a 3rd/4th playoff starter who could start NLCS games if he’s still healthy. LCS and WS you’d prob go with a 4 man rotation. Maybe someone like Joe Ryan, Sandy Alcantara or Sonny Gray if you don’t want to trade the farm for Skubal. All 3 also expiring contracts with options you don’t have to pick up for 2027.

One more elite leverage reliever and maybe another cheaper one for depth is a glaring need to me especially after last night.

I don’t disagree with needing a slugging 3B depending who they get and what they’d have to give up. If Arizona or Philly fall off a cliff soon maybe Nolan Arenado or Alec Bohm are options. Bohm a FA after this season and Arenado a FA after 2027. Neither having a spectacular 2026 but obviously good track records. Eugenio Suarez an option if Cincy willing to deal within the division. Expiring contract. Isaac Paredes on Houston another slugging 3B on a struggling team with an expiring contract. Other than Arenado they’re big defensive downgrades from Ortiz obviously so not sure Arnold willing to do that. None of these 4 would require a ton of prospect capital. 

[Brewersfan1]

1 hour ago, Brian said:

I actually think we need both because one injury to any pitcher during the season and we could be cooked.  We have only played 78 games of 162.  Season is not even 1/2 way over, with still 84 games to go before the playoffs even begin. 

They have been down pitcher(s) all year

[Trail]

Ya...I get it.  Maybe we need a pitcher just as an insurance policy.   Odds are one of our 3 aces is going to get hurt to some degree.  That's just the nature of things.  Having said that....we really need a bat at 3rd. ;)  Not to win the division, but to win it all.  Some of this depends on Yely.  If he's hitting, this is a pretty good offensive lineup as-is.  His inconsistency makes decisions difficult.  

This may sound a little nuts, but if Fisher keeps raking in AA, would it make any sense to bring him right up for at least a cup of coffee.  I say that only because he saw higher level pitching this last  spring and did ok.  

 

[Spaul149]

The thing about getting a SP is you are either paying the farm for Skubal/Alcantara (if tigers are selling and they are only 5 games back right now they might not be) or are you even starting the guy you are getting in the playoffs?

If everyone is healthy for playoffs (big if) then does that guy even get a start in the playoffs? 

It all depends on price (obviously) and both would be best (similiar to 2023 deadline), but if I had to choose a SLG 3B would be my choice. A SP (if everyone is healthy) at most is maybe getting 2 starts (9% or 11%  of games depending on if you get the bye) in the entire playoff run (game 4 NLCS and WS) where a 3B is getting 4 PAs every game. That assumes the team doesn't want to do a BP game instead.

[JohnBriggs12]

Brewers" starting pitching is a strength of the team.  They have two of the top starters in the league for the first half of the season.  The guys behind them are all quality arms as well.  Yes, other than Woodruff, the experience is a little light but these guys aren't kids either.  Gasser and Drohan are both 27.  Sproat will be 26 in September and Henderson is 24.  I'm pretty confident that one or two of those guys will emerge as legit playoff contributors.  They're all close right now when healthy.

The only starting pitching move that makes sense would be to see if they can get Skubal.  That's the move that makes them a World Series favorite and the Brewers have never had a deeper system than they have right now to make it happen.  56 years is long enough.  Go for the gold.

As for 3rd base, there's not a guy out there that moves the needle for me.  Maybe they bring up Andrew Fischer in September.  But I'll take the defense Ortiz provides and so will the pitching staff.  Rengifo was acquired to provide some pop at third.  How did that work out?  

The bullpen needs a little help, but a healthy Hall and/or Koenig might be enough.

[Spaul149]

"Maybe they bring up Andrew Fischer in September. "

Fischer is not the first 3B up. Williams, Adams, or even Made would be up first. Fischer has swing and miss injuries in A+ and AA.

[Vale la Peña]

Not sure we'd want any SP outside of Skubal and Ryan and they're too pricey. Henderson and Woodruff are better than someone like Seth Lugo and I'd roll with the upside of Drohan, Sproat, or Gasser if those two can't go. 

The only exception is if the front office wants to go find another gem in the used car section on the cheap.

[wallus]

3rd base is the biggest spot to try and improve. The only issue is the options aren't great. Jung? Bad defense and the Rangers might not be selling. Chapman? No trade clause, bad contract and Savant page is kinda ugly. Paredes? Not great defense and his profile isn't ideal for Am Fam. Casey Schmitt was someone I advocated for before. His Savant page looks promising but this season feels fluky. He is only playing the outfield because of Chapman and he stinks there, completely playing out of position. His bat is playing much better outside of Oracle.

Perhaps you get someone and move them to 3rd which is risky midseason. CJ Abrams would be interesting but would cost a lot. You could kick the tires again on Ketel Marte if the Diamonbacks sell. Gunnar Henderson would be interesting but I don't think the O's would entertain trading him.

So then maybe you look at the outfield. Buxton would be the ideal target but he has a no trade clause and sounds like he doesn't want to leave. Not sure what happened to Jurran Duran but he is playing poorly. At this point, I think you ride with what you have. Call up Lara at some point and move Mitchell to right. We need to get positive production from that 3rd outfield spot. You can also continue to get Bauers some starts in the outfield with the Miz and Harrison are starting.

Starting pitching is a popular pick for improvement. Joe Ryan is a guy that is often in rumors. He is pretty consistent and I like that he is under control for next season. He would definitely be a playoff starter which I think is a requirement at this point. Logan Webb is another guy. He is under contract at a somewhat reasonable price for a few seasons. We saw firsthand when he dominated us. I think the Giants will prefer to shed some salary. It is unlikely they can move Chapman, Adames or Devers so this may be an opportunity. Freddy Peralta is another guy you keep hearing about. I would pass on him for this season. I'm not including Skubal because I think the price would be too high for the risk you are taking. There are other starters available such as Sonny Gray but I just think it might be a stretch for the Sox to trade with us again this quickly. (maybe I am wrong with that)

When you look at the Brewers 4-6 starters, you can make the argument that there just aren't a lot of major upgrades out there. (at least in the realm that you want to give up multiple top 10 prospects) This is a good thing obviously. The only concern is that you want to protect these young starters a bit on the innings total. 

Conclusion: Brewers call up Luis Lara and send out Blake Perkins. They trade for Casey Schmitt from the Giants and put him back at 3rd base where he belongs. You're taking a chance that this is a career year from him. It is not in the Brewer's recent history to trade major prospects for "name" pitching so I think we stand pat on starters and maybe trade for some random reliever.

[tmwiese55]

Good find, I'd be on board with Schmitt.  Quick run through his minor league seem to support that this season could be somewhat real, or that he's at least going to good/ok. Which is really all we're asking.   

I'm skeptical if they'll be looking to trade him, unless overwhelmed, considering he's one of their only positives this season. And he's cheap to balance those overpriced underperformers.  He's also controlled for 3 more years after this which might drive his price up more than we want, and makes him not perfect timeline to get replaced with our prospects.  But we can always re-trade him later, or maybe you put Jett in the trade so it takes out the theoretical next man up at 3B. He's showing this year he can be moved around positions too. So whoever gets hurt in the future, or if Frelick keeps floundering there is some OF playing time. And we assume Bauers gone next year too to free up PT

[ghostdrew]

Also agree with the Schmitt take .Would put a Casey mize from Detroit if they sell or senzatella  as a bullpen arm from the rockies.

[wiguy94]

33 minutes ago, wallus said:

3rd base is the biggest spot to try and improve. The only issue is the options aren't great. Jung? Bad defense and the Rangers might not be selling. Chapman? No trade clause, bad contract and Savant page is kinda ugly. Paredes? Not great defense and his profile isn't ideal for Am Fam. Casey Schmitt was someone I advocated for before. His Savant page looks promising but this season feels fluky. He is only playing the outfield because of Chapman and he stinks there, completely playing out of position. His bat is playing much better outside of Oracle.

Perhaps you get someone and move them to 3rd which is risky midseason. CJ Abrams would be interesting but would cost a lot. You could kick the tires again on Ketel Marte if the Diamonbacks sell. Gunnar Henderson would be interesting but I don't think the O's would entertain trading him.

So then maybe you look at the outfield. Buxton would be the ideal target but he has a no trade clause and sounds like he doesn't want to leave. Not sure what happened to Jurran Duran but he is playing poorly. At this point, I think you ride with what you have. Call up Lara at some point and move Mitchell to right. We need to get positive production from that 3rd outfield spot. You can also continue to get Bauers some starts in the outfield with the Miz and Harrison are starting.

Starting pitching is a popular pick for improvement. Joe Ryan is a guy that is often in rumors. He is pretty consistent and I like that he is under control for next season. He would definitely be a playoff starter which I think is a requirement at this point. Logan Webb is another guy. He is under contract at a somewhat reasonable price for a few seasons. We saw firsthand when he dominated us. I think the Giants will prefer to shed some salary. It is unlikely they can move Chapman, Adames or Devers so this may be an opportunity. Freddy Peralta is another guy you keep hearing about. I would pass on him for this season. I'm not including Skubal because I think the price would be too high for the risk you are taking. There are other starters available such as Sonny Gray but I just think it might be a stretch for the Sox to trade with us again this quickly. (maybe I am wrong with that)

When you look at the Brewers 4-6 starters, you can make the argument that there just aren't a lot of major upgrades out there. (at least in the realm that you want to give up multiple top 10 prospects) This is a good thing obviously. The only concern is that you want to protect these young starters a bit on the innings total. 

Conclusion: Brewers call up Luis Lara and send out Blake Perkins. They trade for Casey Schmitt from the Giants and put him back at 3rd base where he belongs. You're taking a chance that this is a career year from him. It is not in the Brewer's recent history to trade major prospects for "name" pitching so I think we stand pat on starters and maybe trade for some random reliever.

Schmitt is the guy I mentioned earlier this year as the one I would want if we traded for anyone from the Giants. His swing decisions are really bad but I think the Brewers have shown to be pretty good at improving swing decisions (Andrew Vaughn last year in big flashing lights). Schmitt could be our everyday 3B and he can also play some 2B and 1B or corner OF in an emergency (obviously the OF is not ideal).

He really does make a lot of sense as a Brewers target but he has 3 more years of control after this season so I'm not sure how interested the Giants are in trading him. Like he could be their starting 2B after they trade Arraez.

[wallus]

20 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Schmitt is the guy I mentioned earlier this year as the one I would want if we traded for anyone from the Giants. His swing decisions are really bad but I think the Brewers have shown to be pretty good at improving swing decisions (Andrew Vaughn last year in big flashing lights). Schmitt could be our everyday 3B and he can also play some 2B and 1B or corner OF in an emergency (obviously the OF is not ideal).

He really does make a lot of sense as a Brewers target but he has 3 more years of control after this season so I'm not sure how interested the Giants are in trading him. Like he could be their starting 2B after they trade Arraez.

What kind of return do you think they would need to trade him?

[Team Canada]

4 hours ago, Vale la Peña said:

Not sure we'd want any SP outside of Skubal and Ryan and they're too pricey. Henderson and Woodruff are better than someone like Seth Lugo and I'd roll with the upside of Drohan, Sproat, or Gasser if those two can't go. 

The only exception is if the front office wants to go find another gem in the used car section on the cheap.

Welcome!

[SF70]

Biggest need imo is backend of the bullpen. Adding a closer-type arm, preferably LH, would give the team a potentially dominant playoff bullpen with a couple of starter arms joining it for the playoffs. 

Uribe just not striking-out many hitters and neither is Megill. 

Trade for Chapman. Can’t think of a more battle-tested, veteran closer that I’d rather have pitching the 9th with a 1-run lead.

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 hours ago, Vale la Peña said:

Not sure we'd want any SP outside of Skubal and Ryan and they're too pricey. Henderson and Woodruff are better than someone like Seth Lugo and I'd roll with the upside of Drohan, Sproat, or Gasser if those two can't go. 

The only exception is if the front office wants to go find another gem in the used car section on the cheap.

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