When Brewers Add Starting Pitcher at MLB Trade Deadline, Brandon Sproat Should Head to Bullpen

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Things just keep finding a way to go wrong for Brandon Sproat. It's not always the same way, but there's always a way. Sproat made it through (technically) a quality start Monday night in San Francisco, surrendering three runs in six innings. It was just the fourth time this year that he's gotten at least 18 outs in a game, and it was one of his five or six best starts of the season. Even then, though, he only struck out five, and he walked three, and the Brewers lost 3-0. 

It's all becoming familiar. Sproat consistently downplays any hum of adrenaline fueling his starts, but in every outing, he comes out running hot and then sees his velocity drop significantly. On Monday night, he averaged 97.0 MPH with his four-seam fastball in the first inning, but by the fifth (94.2) and sixth (94.4), the heat was cooling off. For the year, Sproat's average heater in the first inning is 97.6 MPH, good for the 94th percentile among starters. In the fifth, it's 95.3, which dips out of the top quartile of the league.

More importantly (and perhaps relatedly), Sproat too often finds himself working extremely hard early in starts, because he doesn't induce chases outside the zone much at all and doesn't miss enough bats when hitters do swing. In fact, here are the only four pitchers with at least 80th-percentile fastball velocity but an average or worse whiff rate and a chase rate in or below the 20th percentile.

Despite throwing hard and having a sweeper, a curveball and a slider that all rate as above-average based on their raw characteristics, Sproat simply isn't forcing bad swing decisions or piling up whiffs. The other three guys who have this problem, by no coincidence, are all relievers.

In the long run, Sproat still has a chance to help the Brewers as a starter. This season feels a bit like Corbin Burnes's 2019: a lot of teases, a lot of glimpses at huge potential, but lousy production. The team has a good chance to successfully develop him as a starter next season and beyond. For now, though, this confluence of weaknesses—the tendency to run out of steam after hot starts; an inability to get batters to expand the zone; and underperformance in terms of swing-and-miss—cries out for a change. Sproat needs to move to the bullpen down the stretch.

That underscores the importance of the Brewers' quest to add a starting pitcher before next week's MLB trade deadline. They need the depth, anyway, but Sproat makes it clearer how badly they need it each time he takes the mound. Even assuming Kyle Harrison returns rapidly and without issue, the rotation could use another mid-tier arm behind him and Jacob Misiorowski. Logan Henderson, Shane Drohan and Robert Gasser are fine back-end options, and the Brewers have several relievers and Triple-A options who can give them length. Sproat should move into short relief and streamline his arsenal for the rest of this year. The front office, meanwhile, should add a starter who fits in front of the likes of Henderson and Drohan in the pecking order, making it easier to move Sproat out without worrying about a sudden lack of readiness to cover the requisite innings.

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[CA John]

Coleman Crow needs another shot. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, CA John said:

Coleman Crow needs another shot. 

I'm sure he'll get one. Colton Gordon, too. But the team will probably bring someone in to round out the rotation, so Crow and Gordon are both likely to remain confined to spot starts and long relief work for the balance of this year, IMO.

[Team Canada]

I'd quibble a bit with calling Henderson a fine back-end option - when he's actually pitched he's been pretty great. The only concern about the actual argument here is Sproat's well-documented struggles in the first inning, and control in general. That's not something you can tolerate in the BP - or at least not someone who's in any leverage situations.

[liveforoctober]

"The front office, meanwhile, should add a starter who fits in front of the likes of Henderson and Drohan in the pecking order"

Just curious who you think this is? The Twins said they aren't trading Ryan, so outside of Skubal who is there to acquire that we anticipate will pitch better than Henderson (3ERA) or Drohan (3.5ERA)?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

3 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

"The front office, meanwhile, should add a starter who fits in front of the likes of Henderson and Drohan in the pecking order"

Just curious who you think this is? The Twins said they aren't trading Ryan, so outside of Skubal who is there to acquire that we anticipate will pitch better than Henderson (3ERA) or Drohan (3.5ERA)?

That story reads like something written by someone who actually hasn't been watching Henderson and Drohan pitch. Those guys have thrown like legit #2s as of late. 

[liveforoctober]

4 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

That story reads like something written by someone who actually hasn't been watching Henderson and Drohan pitch. Those guys have thrown like legit #2s as of late. 

I get the excitement of "Who could we get that will get us over the edge?!" and dreaming that the one guy we acquire turns into Verlander for the stretch run... but I also love the idea of scratch off tickets at the gas station, yet I don't buy them because I have seen the math.

A guy like Senzatela is a 31yo who has a career ERA over 5 and he is going to get traded for legit prospect capital in a few days.

Meanwhile Bryce Wilson was free and his career ERA is under 5.

Same realistic expectation of production moving forward.

I could certainly be missing some available folks here but to me it is Skubal or the Bryce Wilson's of the league. Those are the acquisition targets. Anything else is a misuse of resources IMHO when you can't truthfully expect better production than what the Crow, Sproat, Wilson, Gordon crew will be able to put together.

[endaround]

Drohan has a 3.99 xFIP as a starter and a 4.24 ERA. So Detmers, Alcantra, and even Peralta could be expected to be better than Drohan. Henderson? Yeah hard to see someone better.

[endaround]

8 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

I get the excitement of "Who could we get that will get us over the edge?!" and dreaming that the one guy we acquire turns into Verlander for the stretch run... but I also love the idea of scratch off tickets at the gas station, yet I don't buy them because I have seen the math.

A guy like Senzatela is a 31yo who has a career ERA over 5 and he is going to get traded for legit prospect capital in a few days.

Meanwhile Bryce Wilson was free and his career ERA is under 5.

Same realistic expectation of production moving forward.

I could certainly be missing some available folks here but to me it is Skubal or the Bryce Wilson's of the league. Those are the acquisition targets. Anything else is a misuse of resources IMHO when you can't truthfully expect better production than what the Crow, Sproat, Wilson, Gordon crew will be able to put together.

Senzetala is a starter who moved to the bullpen and is having really good year but also has 9.8 fWAR in his carreer. Wilson is what he has always been, a spot starter long relief guy with a fWAR  of -0.4 in his career. They aren't similar.

[dsid74]

I think Sproat needs to go to AAA for 38 days to sort out his mechanics/control/command.  It would also push him under the year of service time giving the Brewers an extra year of control.

[DonBarclay]

They don’t need to acquire a starter to option Sproat to AAA. The can do it today, and line up everyone to start on normal rest with Harrison going next Tuesday after his Thursday rehab start. 

[liveforoctober]

36 minutes ago, endaround said:

Senzetala is a starter who moved to the bullpen and is having really good year but also has 9.8 fWAR in his carreer. Wilson is what he has always been, a spot starter long relief guy with a fWAR  of -0.4 in his career. They aren't similar.

Of course they are not, but I'm talking about expected contribution for the remainder of the year. If you had to mark out your lowest and highest contribution estimates from both guys there's going to be a lot of overlap and if that's the case, why are you spending reasonable capital for a scratch off opportunity?

Outside of the obvious one guy, there is no one we can currently acquire who is assured to outperform Logan or Shane so we are acquiring a #5 and if that's the case - cost to performance skews hard in the direction of scrap heap types.