BREAKING: Brewers Trade For Dustin May And JoJo Romero

[tmwiese55]

I've thought Frelick could be a fit for Col for Senzatela.   Huge OF good for slap hitter, good speed to play D in it.  Gives them someone to have competency while they attempt to rebuild.  We'll see if he's in on it somehow.     No comment on value of what else would be needed on either side.  Just in general

[TURBO]

4 minutes ago, ImissDougMelvin said:

 

I'm guessing it would have to be Knoth and Adams/Burke, and probably another lower level guy.

UGH!

I don't trust what Arnold will do next.

[BrewerFan]

26 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

In the same way that 20-30 percent of American holidays are meant to sell greeting cards, the trade deadline is meant to sell column inches.

The Brewers are always in damned either way position. Either they swing big and sell the prospects on a very uncertain bet, or they stand pat and get nationally (and locally) hammered for not doing something to get over the hump in October. It's a no-win situation.

As others have said, 2/3 of our current OF is locked up on long-term MLB deals. Those guys is gonna play. Then, you've got two prospects ahead of them already in the system. Then, you've got 2 top 100 draft picks (okay, Jones was #102), and I haven't even counted Felick or Lockridge, both of whom the org seems to like. Plus, I think OFers are the easiest position to find and develop. 

Honestly, if May had one more year of control, I think people would be perfectly fine with this, which tells you how off-base the "worst trade ever" remarks are. It's probably a slight overpay. It stinks that it's to the Cardinals (though that org is a total and complete mess right now if you ask me). And yet, the Brewers got two needed arms and dealt of a position of great depth. 

This feels like a typical deadline deal to me. There's not a lot of value to be had in a sellers market. There's probably a 10 percent chance we really regret this, a 30 percent chance neither Frias or Ragsdale do anything at all, and a 60 percent chance it works out within range of even, probably with a wider swath of that giving the Cardinals a couple wins worth of future value.

We overvalue our own prospects. You can look at it like we only got two rentals, or you can look at it like we got two MLB quality pitchers for two guys outside the organizational top 10.

This is perfectly reasonable, if you ask me.

Can we PLEEASE stop saying this. 

Why not trade Made and Pena using this logic? We have SS locked up?

2nd-Luis Lara's 8 year 31M deal does NOT mean that if we develop another Jackson Chourio, but a slightly bigger version and left handed... and already showing massive power in Low A at 18,,,, it doesn't matter if we trade him way in a MASSIVE overpay.


And no, the Brewers are NOT "damned if they do, damned if they don't." They're damned... if they do some STOOPID ****.

You can trade away good prospects. You PROBABLY should try and trade them when their value is HIGHER(like Ragsdale, so fine with that one)... and not the guys who have freakish ability and are already top 100 prospects at 18. 

Who do have that fits that description?

1-Chourio
2-Made
3-Pena
4-Frias...er... that's right, the Cards have him... because they took a salary dump in Dustin May this off-season and turned it into two guys with good upside, one guy with MASSIVE upside. This is not a reasonable trade, this is a moronic trade.


But hey, lets trade Braylon Payne and Josh Adamczewski next year for rentals because "2 of the 3 OF positions are already locked into long term deals with Chourio and Lara.

You guys also do realize we have BACKUPS in the OF and... ya know, FUTURE trades to consider, right?

[DonBarclay]

1 minute ago, ChapelHeel66 said:

I think we are just criticizing a moment.  It doesn't meant the front office is bad -- that would be an absurd take, given the number of games MIL has won the last couple of years and the minor league talent it has built.  But even a good front office can misstep or not do enough in the big moments.

It is possible, of course, that a team very good at winning ballgames, the division, and even a playoff series, will not do enough with the roster to win a World Series.  MIL cannot become a prisoner of its own small market teambuilding, patting itself on the back for doing more with less.  There's no getting around that the real trophy requires much more aggressive moves than we have seen.  The team is not close enough to take baby steps when there is a window.

The Cubs just gave up their #1 prospect for Clay Holmes AND a major league outfielder with an OPS near .800.  Their #1 prospect is effectively ranked the same as Alexander Frias, who we used (along with another prospect) to get a worse starting pitcher and an injured, underperforming reliever.  That's worth noting, even while recognizing that MIL's front office is excellent overall.

It is possible to hold multiple thoughts at the same time. 

The Brewers front office is elite. 

This particular trade seems like a major overpay. 

Baseball front offices may have very different grades on Frias than publications do, and we may be making too much of this. 

This could be a nothing trade, or could really hurt in a few years. 

[brewers888]

1 minute ago, TURBO said:

I'm guessing it would have to be Knoth and Adams/Burke, and probably another lower level guy.

UGH!

I don't trust what Arnold will do next.

I really hope you are wrong.

[Opening Day]

Hate this trade.  Im down to trade prospects for difference makers.  For a below average starter and an average middle releiver, Id rather keep Ragsdale.

If I wouldnt be excited to give a starter the ball in October, Id rather keep prospects.  Im not excited to give the ball to May in October.

[narwhalattack]

FWIW, I’ve read somewhere that some evaluators think Frias is too slow to stick at OF. Maybe the FO thought his place on the field was too questionable. 

[adambr2]

Can we please, please stop using the justification of “well Chourio and Lara are locked up long-term, so these guys are blocked anyway” to explain away this trade.

We are all smarter than this. This is a value based thinking forum. This is a value based thinking organization.

No one here is selling their Porsche for half price just because they also have a Lamborghini and a 1 stall garage. 

[TURBO]

4 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

I really hope you are wrong.

I guarantee, if we get him, it will cost us dearly.

[BrewerFan]

13 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

You and I both know that we can go back and look at a lot of top 100 prospect lists and find lots of players who ended up not belonging on them.  There are also guys who aren't on those lists who should have been.

But no GM looks at top 100 prospect lists and makes decisions based off of them.  The further away from the majors a player is, the more a GM discounts their value based on development risk.

Great. You made a TOTALLY different argument than I made.

Frias is not on Baseball America's top 100, EASILY the best and more comprehensive list... because he's "the shiny new thing."

It's because at 17/18, the 6'2 left hander was putting up exit Velo's in the 115+ range. 

 

And I don't care that he's further away. Dusin May is NOT further away from Free Agency. I'd have MUCH rather given up... Tyler Black. So proximity has nothing to do with it, though... you're making both arguments here.

1-There are guys on top 100 lists who shouldn't have been.
ok... why shouldn't they have been? Because they end up being a bust? Or because they were NEVER deserving? 
If you want to say the prior, no kidding. If you want to say the later, I don't agree(particularly with BA). 

2-The bottom line, THEY GROSSLY overpaid. It's just that simple. 

[TURBO]

18 minutes ago, dlk9s said:

The front office that has made this small market team into an MLB power. Ok.

Agreed, but that doesn't excuse this trade.

We got fleeced by a division rival for two players we already have on the roster.  One of which is on the IL for the next two weeks minimal.

The FO made a mistake, it's ok to admit it and still be a fan of the Brewers and their front office.

[Opening Day]

1 minute ago, adambr2 said:

Can we please, please stop using the justification of “well Chourio and Lara are locked up long-term, so these guys are blocked anyway” to explain away this trade.

We are all smarter than this. This is a value based thinking forum. This is a value based thinking organization.

No one here is selling their Porsche for half price just because they also have a Lamborghini and a 1 stall garage. 

And there are 3 OF spots.  And Frelick, Blake Perkins, Lockridge, and Matos all got playing time out there this year.  And this is the first time Mitchell has ever stayed healthy.

[BrewerFan]

5 minutes ago, Opening Day said:

Hate this trade.  Im down to trade prospects for difference makers.  For a below average starter and an average middle releiver, Id rather keep Ragsdale.

If I wouldnt be excited to give a starter the ball in October, Id rather keep prospects.  Im not excited to give the ball to May in October.

Ok, I hate this trade as much as the Trojan's hated Helen after she told the Prince to accept that gift horse and not look in it's mouth(that's just basic history)... 

 

BUT... May is not a below average starter. He's an extremely talented started who... I would VAGUELY understand if he were under team control, but he's not below average. It's either a Gm2 or Gm3 starter. 

[Playing Catch]

3 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Can we please, please stop using the justification of “well Chourio and Lara are locked up long-term, so these guys are blocked anyway” to explain away this trade.

We are all smarter than this. This is a value based thinking forum. This is a value based thinking organization.

No one here is selling their Porsche for half price just because they also have a Lamborghini and a 1 stall garage. 

But sometimes people don't have enough garage space for their 10 Lambos. As in..;

The Brewers have an upcoming roster crunch and the whole league knows it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I guarantee, if we get him, it will cost us dearly.

LHP Mark Manfredi and SS Juan Martinez. So not bad.

[Opening Day]

2 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Ok, I hate this trade as much as the Trojan's hated Helen after she told the Prince to accept that gift horse and not look in it's mouth(that's just basic history)... 

 

BUT... May is not a below average starter. He's an extremely talented started who... I would VAGUELY understand if he were under team control, but he's not below average. It's either a Gm2 or Gm3 starter. 

2 years in a row with an era+ below 100.  I dont want him starting game 2.  If thats the plan I like this trade even less.

[Daubs]

17 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

You and I both know that we can go back and look at a lot of top 100 prospect lists and find lots of players who ended up not belonging on them.  There are also guys who aren't on those lists who should have been.

But no GM looks at top 100 prospect lists and makes decisions based off of them.  The further away from the majors a player is, the more a GM discounts their value based on development risk.

Verducci just made this argument a few minutes ago on MLB Network.  Essentially stating those lists aren't worth what whatever they're printed on.

Exact quote:  "The other teams will let you know what the value is of a player".

[Aleister]

Baseball Trade Values

[LouisEly]

8 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I guarantee, if we get him, it will cost us dearly.

Bookmarked.

 

[Opening Day]

5 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

But sometimes people don't have enough garage space for their 10 Lambos. As in..;

The Brewers have an upcoming roster crunch and the whole league knows it.

If we have 10 Lambos and need to give some away, we should have been able to get Skubal.

[brewers888]

8 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Agreed, but that doesn't excuse this trade.

We got fleeced by a division rival for two players we already have on the roster.  One of which is on the IL for the next two weeks minimal.

The FO made a mistake, it's ok to admit it and still be a fan of the Brewers and their front office.

Thats exactly where I am at. Arnold has been a great GM and I hope he's here for many years but this looks to be a bad trade. 

[Fan Assistance Center]

At first, I hated this trade.

Then I thought about it some more, and still hated it. 

[DonBarclay]

1 minute ago, Opening Day said:

If we have 10 Lambos and need to give some away, we should have been able to get Skubal.

Would rather give 5 lambos away for 1 helicopter than 1 lambo away for 2 GMC Terrains. 

[brewers888]

I know we have an overabundance of position player prospects but why not trade a few for long term pitchers since we are very light on pitching prospects. I am ok trading who we did but we needed to receive pitchers with multiple years of control remaining.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

8 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

 

No one here is selling their Porsche for half price just because they also have a Lamborghini and a 1 stall garage. 

Nah, we'll just let the Porsche sit in the garage.

The reality is, we have NO IDEA if this is "half price." The value of an asset is what you can get someone to pay for the asset. And we can index that to all kinds of different indicators, but I guarantee the Brewers weren't looking at a full price offer and decided to take the half price one.

Maybe you think they should've been able to get more. Okay. Maybe you think they shouldn't have moved these guys at all. That's fine too. But let's not get all high and mighty with "value-based thinking" and then throw out a spurious argument by analogy. 

If the Brewers regret this trade, they'll do so in 2028 or 2029. Borrowing from theoretical future value is how these transactions work. The fact is, the Brewers valued these guys at Dustin May and JoJo Romero. They probably have a lot more information to base that on than we do, and the idea that they have other prospects they like more is probably part of the calculus. I would argue that your jump to call that line of thinking dumb is what's moving us away from "value-based thinking."