Padres (Pivetta) vs Brewers (May): 10/6/26, 8:30pm

[craigharmann]

I've got an event tonight, helping sponsor our neighborhood's National Night Out and thankfully it goes until 8:30, so I'll try to pack up quick and get home. It's not a far drive. 

[Brian]

"I don't know if he was tipping or not," Gary Sanchez said. "And if he was, I wasn't aware of it.  Even if he was, and we were aware of it, hitting 104 [mph] is not easy by any means. "Hitting a pitch of that caliber, and pitches of that caliber, there's nothing easy about that. But again, I don't. I wasn't aware. If he was tipping, I was focused on other things in the game."

 

Brewers Manager Pat Murphy Reacts to Allegations Mason Miller Pitch Tipping.

 

 

 

Sep 20, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy looks on prior to the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Milwaukee Brewers Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: James A. Pittman-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

 

Whether or not Miller was tipping his pitches means very little to the Brewers. If they have something on him, they certainly aren't going to divulge anything publically. But it serves as a key reminder for the club, as manager Pat Murphy spoke about.

 

“I’d be not telling the truth if I didn’t tell you that it’s part of our game today in a big way,” Murphy told McCalvy before Game 3. “The most important part is to make sure your pitchers, catchers, infielders, coaches, nobody’s giving anything away.”

 

The game within the game is finding tells that can give you a slight edge against the opponent. If the opposing pitcher is tipping their pitches in subtle ways, it gives the hitter more of an edge. The game very much favors the pitcher, considering the average player will make an out nearly 70% of the time.

[Turning2]

Seems to be the trendy thing the last few years - a top pitcher gets roughed = he tipped his pitches. Not saying that differences in mannerisms or presentation isn't a thing, but c'mon.... let's give the hitters some credit too. Alonzo killing our season against Devin Williams in the playoffs.... he still had to hit the ball with the right mechanics to do that. Same with Chourio. 

[shanedog19]

I'd like to see Vaughn get a start at 1B tonight. Bauers has had a rough go of it the first two games both offensively and defensively, and it would be nice to have Bauers' bat off the bench in a pinch hit scenario tonight.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

I think the Padres will come out swinging and there are going to be a lot of runs scored tonight. It's hot in San Diego this week, there's not much marine layer. Ball should be flying. 

I'd love to hear more about the marine layer if you've got it. I know it's a big factor in how PetCo plays, but if there's a good way to describe why, that would be awesome.

The good news on this front is that May is that he's much more of a ground-ball pitcher than Pivetta, at least over his career (2026 is a bit of an outlier, though). Pivetta has higher K numbers, but he gives up a lot of fly balls. 

Dangerous to read too much into things given how short the leashes will be, but it's something, I guess!

[RobertCrawley]

1 hour ago, thammondwis said:

I hope that Murph doesn't deploy all the bullpen arms trying to chase a win tonight.  If it's there go for it, otherwise save them for a better day.

If we go up three runs, I can imagine us going all in.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

1 minute ago, RobertCrawley said:

If we go up three runs, I can imagine use going all in.

This is our tough choice: how hard to push in a tight game, especially tied or with a small lead.

The Padres don't have to make a tough choice. They do, though, have to pay a tax. The tax is throwing as many guys as they need to to stay in it or keep a lead. The more they do, the more it accrues to our advantage should Game 4 become necessary.

Our job is simply to stay in this one. With what looks like an offense-friendly night, I think it's especially important to do that with the bats. Obviously, we want our pitchers to perform well, but, as long as we hit, the Padres have to do something tonight that weakens their overall series odds.

 

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, RobertCrawley said:

So I think Pancakes has earned the benefit of the doubt. 

I would say he's also earned not being called Pancakes.

[Underachiever]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

I think the Padres will come out swinging and there are going to be a lot of runs scored tonight. It's hot in San Diego this week, there's not much marine layer. Ball should be flying. 

The Padres were so aggressive against the Cubs that I was surprised at how patient they were against the Brewers, especially against Miz. I thought they'd come out swinging. Instead, we got that 2 hitter (Harris?) who saw 32 pitches in five at bats. His 9-pitch at-bat in the first, and 7-pitch at bat in the 3rd was huge. Padres had 14 two-strike foul balls that just wore out Miz by extending abs.

Four innings, two runs is my optimistic hope for May tonight.

[Team Canada]

3 hours ago, thammondwis said:

I believe most people think the Dodgers are the world series favorite now.

I don't know that that's true. Sports books still have Dodgers as slight favorites, but for example ESPN's expert panel soundly picked the Brewers. I think there is broad sentiment that this is a really good Brewers team and it may finally be their year. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

My feeling on this one is:

Give me Turang's line, and I'll tell you if we won. If he gets a couple of hits, I'd give us great odds.

[RobertCrawley]

8 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

I would say he's also earned not being called Pancakes.

You can say it with love or with contempt, I think.

[RobertCrawley]

I wonder if Mark Attanasio knows there are at least a half dozen better MLB managers than Murph on this chat board alone.

[owbc]

19 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I'd love to hear more about the marine layer if you've got it. I know it's a big factor in how PetCo plays, but if there's a good way to describe why, that would be awesome.

The good news on this front is that May is that he's much more of a ground-ball pitcher than Pivetta, at least over his career (2026 is a bit of an outlier, though). Pivetta has higher K numbers, but he gives up a lot of fly balls. 

Dangerous to read too much into things given how short the leashes will be, but it's something, I guess!

I "enjoyed" 13 years of marine layer baseball in Seattle. Not all that different in concept from the spring lake breeze in Milwaukee but if AmFam Field was 3 blocks from Lake Michigan instead of 6 miles. 

The dense, cold air causes at least three effects that favor pitchers:

1.  The obvious one -- baseballs flying not as far
2. Spinning baseballs break more than they would in less dense air, helping pitch movement
3. The moisture in the marine layer helps with pitcher grip

It's not as big of a factor in Petco as Seattle but there is still a cool-ish ocean breeze here pretty much every evening. We're currently at the tail end of a heat wave and it's 90 degrees out, so the marine layer effect will be pretty much nonexistent tonight. 
 

[RobertCrawley]

5 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

The Padres were so aggressive against the Cubs that I was surprised at how patient they were against the Brewers, especially against Miz. I thought they'd come out swinging. Instead, we got that 2 hitter (Harris?) who saw 32 pitches in five at bats. His 9-pitch at-bat in the first, and 7-pitch at bat in the 3rd was huge. Padres had 14 two-strike foul balls that just wore out Miz by extending abs.

Four innings, two runs is my optimistic hope for May tonight.

They had a great plan against Misi. Foul off the fast ones and hit the slower ones. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

5 minutes ago, owbc said:

I "enjoyed" 13 years of marine layer baseball in Seattle. Not all that different in concept from the spring lake breeze in Milwaukee but if AmFam Field was 3 blocks from Lake Michigan instead of 6 miles. 

The dense, cold air causes at least three effects that favor pitchers:

1.  The obvious one -- baseballs flying not as far
2. Spinning baseballs break more than they would in less dense air, helping pitch movement
3. The moisture in the marine layer helps with pitcher grip

It's not as big of a factor in Petco as Seattle but there is still a cool-ish ocean breeze here pretty much every evening. We're currently at the tail end of a heat wave and it's 90 degrees out, so the marine layer effect will be pretty much nonexistent tonight. 
 

Excellent. Very cool. Thanks!

[ReverendBrewmeister]

22 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

- - - - - - - - - -

Our job is simply to stay in this one. With what looks like an offense-friendly night, I think it's especially important to do that with the bats. Obviously, we want our pitchers to perform well, but, as long as we hit, the Padres have to do something tonight that weakens their overall series odds.

- - - - - - - - - - 

Perfect game for some of the Southern California guys to show up with the bats. 

Getting some extra-base hits from Turang, Bauers, Yelich, and Mitchell could go a long way to a win. 

[dlk9s]

Schedule W

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, thammondwis said:

That scenario kind of scares me.  If May/Gasser goes tonight and they lose, then what do they do tomorrow?  I think I would prefer May/Harrison or Drohan and keep Gasser for game 4.

You could go BP day in a game 4 since there's a day off before a potential Friday game. But I agree that I'd prefer Gasser held until game 4 (if there is a game 4). The one thing that might sway me is if May is struggling early but the bats show up. If they have, say, a 5-3 lead in the 3rd or 4th inning I could see Gasser possibly getting the call. But even then I'd prefer a bridge from among Drohan/Patrick/Senzatela/Harrison.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, Underachiever said:

Joey Votto is on MLB network with Brian Kenny right now. Man, he's a good listen.

He just comped Chourio with Molitor as a batter. Talked about his stillness before swinging, quick bat once it moves. Pretty fun to listen to and consider. It was not the comp I expected.

Kenny was giving him crap that Brave fans think he hates them because of some things he said during game one of the Dodger series. Votto said words to the effect of, "I played 2100 games, and the fans are wrong." He finished the interview by saying, "I got one word for the Braves fans," and he did a raspberry with a thumbs-down gesture. Good stuff. No punches pulled.

😄Sorry I missed that!!

[tmwiese55]

My guess would be Hall would get that role tonight, coming in for 2-3 innings after May.  Guy has been nails

[Frisbee Slider]

I don’t think Pat Murphy has done anything to diminish his association with pancakes

[Jim French Stepstool]

5 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

My guess would be Hall would get that role tonight, coming in for 2-3 innings after May.  Guy has been nails

My bad; I can't believe I didn't include him in my above list. Hall is certainly a potential part of the picture.

[torts]

1 hour ago, RobertCrawley said:

I wonder if Mark Attanasio knows there are at least a half dozen better MLB managers than Murph on this chat board alone.

Mark?  I dunno , matt for sure does

[Brewers Downunder]

A crystal clear brisk Wednesday morning here in country New South Wales.

Been trying to keep a lid on it but then I came here 🤣

Very excited, but will stay busy for another five and a half hours doing....something....

Early runs for the Crew, which will help May, and take the crowd out of it, and don't take the foot off the gas.