Brewers vs Dodgers Open Thread: News / Notes / Predictions / Miscellaneous. What's on your Mind?

[willie key]

Vaughn needs to play more this series

[Opening Day]

Brewers played worse than they were last year, and they're better this year.  Miz wasn't quite Miz last year for one.  Dodgers played great last year, and they aren't as good this year.

Brewers in 6.  When its all said and done, Misiorowski has a historic postseason, Chourio has a superstar coming out party, and the Brewers win their first WS ever.

What's on my mind?

Since you asked, let me tell you about the day I had at work, can't make this up........

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

7 hours ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

We have so many lefties to throw at their good left-handed hitters. I'm not too scared of their offense; it's their starting pitching that scares me. 

I think it's a real coin-flip as to who wins this series.

Two very accurate points IMO. I love being LH heavy on the staff for this series. But the veteran starters LA has, their experience, and the fact that Glasnow is at only 74 innings for the year and Snell under 50 are a huge factor for me. I can see Milwaukee winning the series but if I look at it objectively I'd have to say it would be an upset. I'll take my chances if they play at the high level they've shown they're capable of---better defensively than in the last series; that obviously needs to happen---and get their share of good graces on the random stuff on batted balls, both at bat & on the field.

They already had a victory of sorts when they clinched yesterday, giving them an even # of off days w/LA. Especially with Ashby going three innings. And Pratt & Ortiz turning in good ABs the last two days (esp Pratt), Frelick all series, and Mitchell yesterday are all great signs that I hope can be built on.

[Branyanisthegoat]

Milwaukee is at about +145 for the series according to Vegas, and 40% sounds about right to me.

Brewers are slight favorites in game 1 right now, win, and that 40% chance becomes a better than 50% chance.

Brewers in 6, with Hendo dominating the deciding game and showing the world what bad faith Detroit was dealing with in the Skubal talks.

[SF70]

This is going to be an epic series.

They need to find a way to score off of Yamamoto and Snell. I feel good about game 1 with Miz vs Skubal, but Yamamoto is peaking and with his efficiency, should hold MKE down and pitch deep into that game. Fortunately, we have Henderson going and he should also hold the Dodgers at bay. Game 2 is critical and hopefully we can find a way to score off of the hottest pitcher and the best road pitcher in baseball.

Snell doesn’t seem as sharp as he was last year and that gives me hope we can score off of him in this series. His command hasn’t been all that good so the team needs to be their normal disciplined self vs him and I think we’ll be ok.

This series can go either way, but I’m taking MKE in 7.

[wallus]

A healthy Woodruff would have been amazing for this series

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I really don't think we see any world in which both Vaughn and Sanchez start. Contreras must be in the lineup, and if the DH has to come in to catch, you lose the DH. Maybe we go with only 12 pitchers and mitigate that somewhat. Even then, though, I think it would be pretty out of character for Murph and the Brewers.

Vaughn should get the Game 1 start, probably at first. I'll bet Murph just sticks with Yeli, even against tough lefties. He's ride or die at this point, and I don't think that's a bad thing, as long as it's taking more ABs from Bauers than Vaughn. 

The Dodgers are like us in that they have a lot of left-handed pitchers, and their roster will be pretty balanced righty/lefty. With the Padres, it was really just Matsui and Morejon (who only pitched once). That sets up for more Vaughn and Sanchez ABs. It also sets up for Lara and Sal splitting the OF a little more evenly. Maybe we even see Lara in center. I also actually wonder if Lockridge gets a spot on the roster. I could see that change, just bringing in an extra bat, and maybe you drop Harrison or something. Pratt will be a really important player.

Roster Locks:

Chourio, Yelich, Turang, Contreras, Ortiz, Pratt, Frelick, Mitchell, Bauers, Sanchez, Vaughn, Lara

Mis, Hendo, Gasser, Uribe, Megill, Ashby, Romero, Senzatela, Patrick, Hall

Likely adds:

May, Drohan, Hamilton

Bubble:

Harrison, Naylor, Lockridge

Crazy:

If you wanted to get really nuts, you could roster Fischer. I say that almost entirely for fun and to start conversation. 

I really think it's 6 guys for 4 spots, with 3 of them very likely to be selected. If we got 14 position players, I'd have Lockridge over Naylor. I think his ability to see pitches helps in games where you can give him a start against a tough lefty and hope he sees 10 or 12 pitches.

[kestrel79]

For me it comes down to can we hit their starting pitching. Are we going to make weak contact on the first pitch that is out of the strike zone every inning like we did last year? Then we will lose. 

But if we can work the count, walk, keep hitting the ball hard like we have, steal, and play better D I think we have a chance this year. It's going to be a good series, better than last year. 

I didn't realize how old the Dodgers starting lineup is. You know those guys will turn it on and play well like they always do. 

[Playing Catch]

2 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

If you wanted to get really nuts, you could roster Fischer. I say that almost entirely for fun and to start conversation. 

Since this is an open thread, I'll bite on this hypothetical. Fischer OPSed over 1.000 against lefties this season. He'd basically be a blank slate as far as Dodger scouting is concerned. Not because they don't already have some kind of book on him, but because of his lack of experience. He'd be a complete wild card. His power and swing decisions are apparent, so the Dodgers would have to account for his potential to do damage.

It won't happen for a variety of good reasons, but it's a fun hypothetical to consider, and not without precedent, as the Guardians debuted Chase DeLauter last season in the playoffs.

[Underachiever]

I watch a lot of Brewers baseball. I was stunned to see that Lockridge played in 39 games and had 113 plate appearances. I cannot recall a single one. I don't remember him being on the field at any time.

Putting my own experience aside, I would be surprised to see a guy who played 6 innings in the last 36 games of the year, and only 248 innings all season, would be on the roster. 

[bm1090]

18 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Think Murph is going to have to change it up and start Vaughn and/or Sanchez in this series, starting on Sunday against Skubal. The Dodgers are going to be riding their starters much more than the Padres so you're not going to be as concerned about them switching out a righty after once through the order. I get Yeli's really picked it up here and is the captain, but you just can't let Skubal and Snell carve through the lefties in the order. Need to put your best foot forward. 

Would be really nice if Bauers could play RF, because then you could go: 

Chourio LF

Contreras C

Bauers RF

Vaughn 1B

Sanchez DH

Turang 2B

Pratt SS 

Mitchell/Lara CF

Ortiz SS

If you're ever going to go Bauers in right in a playoff game, I imagine it'd be with Miz on the mound.

[owbc]

With guys like Lockridge and Naylor you’re just assuming a .000 batting average. The only question is what defensive value they offer. 
 

There’s zero doubt in my head that we’ll run out the righty heavy lineup. It was kind of hilarious how many favorable matchups we got against the Padres’ bullpen by keeping the lefties in. We basically sacrificed one inning per game against Matsui and then were well positioned for the rest of the game. 

[nate82]

I hate that the series starts on a Sunday.  

[Jim Goulart]

 

[TURBO]

28 minutes ago, Jim Goulart said:

 

MOOOOOOOOOOOOOSE!