World Series Game 3, Brewers (Gasser) vs Rays (Peralta): 10/26/26, 7:00pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is probably the most *interesting* pitching matchup in the series so far. On one side, you have Gasser, who is the biggest wild card the Brewers have pitched thus far. On the other side, the Rays have Freddy. This should be fun!

[wallus]

I can't see Freddy going past 5 innings. Then we should hopefully get a few on their bullpen guys I think 

[Playing Catch]

I just read another article citing his recent performances about Peralta being the best pitcher the Brewers have faced in the playoffs. Didn't we already hear that about King, Morejon, Miller, Skubal, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, Martinez, and Rasmussen?

There's not many "best" pitchers left.

I wouldn't quibble with anyone talking about the Brewers 'pen as being the "reason" the Brewers have won their playoff games, but IMO, the reason is that the Brewers keep scoring more runs than the other team.

[torts]

[Outlander]

Vaughn had a great game against Peralta the last time they faced each other but don't think Murphy is taking out Yelich

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Pretty nervous for this one. Something about the road games, and I expect Tampa to be able to reset and bring their best game, even if the crowd situation is more pro-Brewers than it's been in other series.

On paper, it looks like the Rays have the pitching edge, though by how much, who knows? Emotionally, it could go either way. There are factors that might give the Brewers an edge, but it would surprise no one if Freddy turns in a fantastic start.

The thing I do know is that the Rays need Freddy not just to be very good, but they need him to be in low-pressure situations. The higher it gets, the more they have to turn to a bullpen they've used more than they've wanted to. I know there's a lot of talk about the Brewers having relied heavily on Uribe and Ashby especially, but the Rays had to throw everyone (except for Jax, Baker, and Peralta), in two games where they only had to get a total of 48 outs. They also only have 12 pitchers to our 13, so it's not like their bullpen is fresh, and we know they trust it a lot less than we do ours.

Ideally, Cash wants to go Freddy to Booser and Baker. That requires at least 6 from Peralta, which is feasible. Again, first inning is big for us. Just keep dragging the starter the way we do. 

This is a full reset to the series. Forget about the 2-0 lead. I expect us to have the pitching edge in Game 4 (bullpen game) and Game 5 (Mis vs. Martinez, both on shorter rest), so a win tonight really goes a long way, especially since it maybe forces the Rays to throw Ras and Freddy out of the pen even if they do manage to get it back to MKE. 

I'm alternating between abject terror and calm, quiet confidence depending on the minute. I guess that's World Series gameday for you. 

Go Crew!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The expectation that they'll come back from any deficit makes it hard for me to be really nervous until the inevitable 1-run lead in the 9th with 2 guys on base.

I feel pretty good. I think we are going to have the brooms out again, but even in the worst scenario where we drop 3 in a row I would still feel like we have a puncher's chance going back to MKE.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

On the lineup front:

I'd like Yelich not to hit third. Other than that, I'm happy to stick with our lefty-heavy lineup. Freddy doesn't have crazy platoon splits, but he's definitely more prone to walking LHB over his career. 

Chourio, Bauers (showing great eye), Contreras, Turang, Yelich, Mitchell, Pratt, Frelick, Hamilton

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

I just read another article citing his recent performances about Peralta being the best pitcher the Brewers have faced in the playoffs. Didn't we already hear that about King, Morejon, Miller, Skubal, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, Martinez, and Rasmussen?

There's not many "best" pitchers left.

I wouldn't quibble with anyone talking about the Brewers 'pen as being the "reason" the Brewers have won their playoff games, but IMO, the reason is that the Brewers keep scoring more runs than the other team.

Pretty interesting that during the regular season the Brewers hit 258/341/403 (107 wRC+) with a 10.6 BB% and 22.0 K%, and so far during the postseason the Brewers have hit 258/349/396 (108 wRC+) with an 11.3 BB% and 21.6 K%.

Obviously some sample size disparity happening by nature, but that they've managed to slightly improve upon their regular season performance here in the playoffs while facing a slate of the best pitchers on the best teams is pretty remarkable (especially considering all the doubt foisted upon them during the summer).

The offense has definitely been a big reason, their +1.27 WPA so far this postseason is 20th of 302 entrants during the Wild Card Era (since 1995), and 30th of 406 entrants during the Expansion/LCS Era (since 1969).

The bullpen has posted +2.73 WPA to this point which comes in 4th on both iterations. With fewer games and less reliever reliance back in the day the highest Expansion/LCS Era team on that leaderboard is the 1990 Reds in 8th with +2.13 WPA, nasty indeed.

The rotation so far has an even 0.00 WPA. If I were divvying up credit to this point I'd probably say something like 20% rotation, 35% offense, 45% bullpen.

If they manage to win these next two they would join the 1999 Yankees and 2005 White Sox as the only teams to go 11 W - 1 L in their World Series runs. Some other teams with dominant WS runs were the the 1976 Reds (7 W - 0 L), 1969 Mets / 1970 Orioles / 1984 Tigers (all 7 W - 1 L), 1989 Athletics (8 W - 1 L), and 1998 Yankees / 2022 Astros (both 11 W - 2 L).

[dlk9s]

Lay off Freddy's high fastball and we'll be ok.

[liveforoctober]

Sorry Freddy - it is our time..

 

 

[MrTPlush]

I’m probably alone on this, but I want Pratt on the bench. 10 games, 4 errors, botched double play almost costing a game (not an error on paper), and numerous bad throws Bauers has bailed him on. The defense is just terrible and he doesn’t have a great 1B to save him. Pratt versus Tropicana Field? It feels like a disaster brewing. I know the offense is better, but jeez, the defense is just bad man.

That being said, I know he will be in the lineup, so I hope he proves me wrong both with the bat and the glove. 

[jay87shot]

8 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I’m probably alone on this, but I want Pratt on the bench. 10 games, 4 errors, botched double play almost costing a game (not an error on paper), and numerous bad throws Bauers has bailed him on. The defense is just terrible and he doesn’t have a great 1B to save him. Pratt versus Tropicana Field? It feels like a disaster brewing. I know the offense is better, but jeez, the defense is just bad man.

That being said, I know he will be in the lineup, so I hope he proves me wrong both with the bat and the glove. 

I think giving Joey a start would be a good idea, Pratt has had some big ab's but with Gasser likely getting more GB than Misi or Henderson going defense would be big. Also Joey did play with Freddy so there should some familiarity when hitting even if he hasn't ever hit against him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

10 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I’m probably alone on this, but I want Pratt on the bench. 10 games, 4 errors, botched double play almost costing a game (not an error on paper), and numerous bad throws Bauers has bailed him on. The defense is just terrible and he doesn’t have a great 1B to save him. Pratt versus Tropicana Field? It feels like a disaster brewing. I know the offense is better, but jeez, the defense is just bad man.

That being said, I know he will be in the lineup, so I hope he proves me wrong both with the bat and the glove. 

I agree that you are probably alone on this. Pratt has proven through the course of the season that he deserves to be in there. A few hiccups isn't going to change that.

[jay87shot]

With Ashby pitching so much in gm 1 and 2 do we slow done his usage? I am not saying we shouldn't use him but do we limit him to like 20 pitches a game for the 3 games in Tampa? Not only to save his arm and effectiveness but to also make it so he isn't facing the same guys every game? Obviously he is going to pitch in the biggest situations with how good he has been, but do we need to limit him at all for effectiveness for game 6/7 or do we just go full boar and lean on him game 3-5 as much as possible?

[liveforoctober]

1 minute ago, jay87shot said:

With Ashby pitching so much in gm 1 and 2 do we slow done his usage? I am not saying we shouldn't use him but do we limit him to like 20 pitches a game for the 3 games in Tampa? Not only to save his arm and effectiveness but to also make it so he isn't facing the same guys every game? Obviously he is going to pitch in the biggest situations with how good he has been, but do we need to limit him at all for effectiveness for game 6/7 or do we just go full boar and lean on him game 3-5 as much as possible?

The Rays are playing for a Game 7. Murph is playing for a Friday afternoon parade. I think Ashby will throw 600 pitches in the next two games if that is what it takes to be World Champions.

[tmwiese55]

6 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

With Ashby pitching so much in gm 1 and 2 do we slow done his usage? I am not saying we shouldn't use him but do we limit him to like 20 pitches a game for the 3 games in Tampa? Not only to save his arm and effectiveness but to also make it so he isn't facing the same guys every game? Obviously he is going to pitch in the biggest situations with how good he has been, but do we need to limit him at all for effectiveness for game 6/7 or do we just go full boar and lean on him game 3-5 as much as possible?

Coming off the day off I'd assume he's good for full use today and I agree with it. If you have the lead today, you go for it with everything you have even if he then needs tomorrow off.. Getting up 3-0 is that valuable. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

18 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I’m probably alone on this, but I want Pratt on the bench. 10 games, 4 errors, botched double play almost costing a game (not an error on paper), and numerous bad throws Bauers has bailed him on. The defense is just terrible and he doesn’t have a great 1B to save him. Pratt versus Tropicana Field? It feels like a disaster brewing. I know the offense is better, but jeez, the defense is just bad man.

That being said, I know he will be in the lineup, so I hope he proves me wrong both with the bat and the glove. 

Totally defensible.

It's a tough call. We've been on the Cooper Coaster so far, with enough highs and lows that you can justify everything from "He must play" to "he must sit." 

It's pretty fascinating, honestly. I would be shocked if Ortiz got a start. But maybe the fast grass changes minds on that. The hard part is, Gasser is a fly ball pitcher, even more than Freddy. Still, with the Rays put it in play, you could certainly justify a superior defensive alignment.

[RobertCrawley]

I think we can expect Freddy to be really good tonight. We just have to do what we do - work him until he breaks and get to the pen. 

[RobertCrawley]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This is probably the most *interesting* pitching matchup in the series so far. On one side, you have Gasser, who is the biggest wild card the Brewers have pitched thus far. On the other side, the Rays have Freddy. This should be fun!

Bob Diesel has ahown he can handle the pressure and tough atmosphere.  He's got a great pen behind him. If he gives up only one or two, I really like our chances. 

[MrTPlush]

3 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Totally defensible.

It's a tough call. We've been on the Cooper Coaster so far, with enough highs and lows that you can justify everything from "He must play" to "he must sit." 

It's pretty fascinating, honestly. I would be shocked if Ortiz got a start. But maybe the fast grass changes minds on that. The hard part is, Gasser is a fly ball pitcher, even more than Freddy. Still, with the Rays put it in play, you could certainly justify a superior defensive alignment.

I’m not mad either way. Murphy’s entire MO with this team, especially in the postseason, is just trusting his guys. Mitchell looked awful, we stayed the course, and has played heroics multiple times. Lead off double? Ashby strands him to win the game. Seems to have worked more often than not.

Just my armchair manager opinion. In Murphy I trust.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'd prefer Ortiz. It is kind of funny that throughout the dominant playoff run, their defense has been pretty bad. There have been plenty of really nice plays, but there's been a ton of mistakes.

[HarveysWBs]

I’m also not sure there’s a good way to decide the Joey/Coop debate here. I wonder if it just boils down to, as a fan, I would prefer a different kind of stress just for variety’s sake. I hold my breath every time a grounder heads to short when Pratt is in the game. If Joey is going to start tonight, though, I know I would dread his appearance in the order and constantly be doing the math about when he’d be coming up and potentially killing a rally with three straight swings and misses on high cheese.

This is just playoff life. There are no answers for me, there’s only the ride.

[MrTPlush]

22 minutes ago, HarveysWBs said:

I’m also not sure there’s a good way to decide the Joey/Coop debate here.

In retrospect at about 11pm tonight. Lol

[GAME05]

I'd rather Ortiz at 3b. The offensive dropoff isn't as significant and the defensive improvement still takes a big jump.

I'd otherwise worry about their fast turf, but we're a good groundball-hitting team and I'm optimistic about our infield defense holding their own, too.

Hopefully Gasser with yet another great game tonight. Guess the ideal is a big enough lead to rest Ashby more, but I'll take 3-0 any way we can get it.