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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Yeah, CK was at an 11.1 BB% over age 20 to 22 and was down to 4.4% for age 25 to 30. Wheeler was another one that popped to mind. Looks like he was at a 10.2 BB% ages 23-24, missed two whole years injured and has been at 6.0% from age 28 to 34. Burnes even kinda fits with an 8.8 BB% age 23 to 25 followed by a 5.8% for ages 26-27. Big Unit is the all time example with a 14.8 BB% from age 25 to 28 followed by a 7.4% from age 29 to 41. Or Koufax for the old heads with a 13.3 BB% age 19 to 24 followed by a 6.4% age 25 to 30. -
Only real issue for Sasaki to this point has been durability with 53 games and 331 innings his last three seasons. For comparison Yamamoto had 76 games and 557 innings in his three seasons prior to posting. Here’s how they compare in some other categories… Roki (331.1 IP) 437 K | 72 BB | 6.07 K/BB 11.87 K9 | 1.96 BB9 10 HR | 0.27 HR9 214 H | .177 AVG Yoshi (557.2 IP) 587 K | 110 BB | 5.34 K/BB 9.47 K9 | 1.78 BB9 15 HR | 0.24 HR9 380 H | .185 AVG Pretty tight across the board outside of Sasaki’s strikeout rate being on a whole other level.
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Funny thing about Wade is he represents a pretty good example of a realistic outcome for someone like Tyler Black. Since 2021 LaMonte has a 147 BB%+ paired with a 93 K%+ so he controls the zone. His 100 AVG+ and 101 ISO+ are as average as it gets though so the profile is almost entirely driven by the obscene walk rate. Glove limits him to 1B (where he’s been ok at +4 DRS | -3 FRV) or corner OF (where he’s been less than ok at -7 DRS | -6 FRV). Guess Black has better wheels. I’d just give those lefty 1B/DH PAs to Tyler and see what he’s got. Almost assuredly is a worse play for 2025 but also might be necessary to give him a tear off the band aid year if there’s any hope for him in 2026 and beyond.
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Yeah, not sure how one year of Civale has more value than two years of Freddy or five years of Turang. I’d probably tier the Brewers trade assets something like… 01-02: Chourio, Contreras (Superstars) 03-07: Peralta, Misio, Made, Quero, Pratt (Top prospects plus Peralta on value deal) 08-12: Mitchell, Turang, Ortiz, Frelick, Myers (Established young MLBers with multiple years of control) 13: Williams (Elite closer only one year) 14-20: Ashby, Hall, Gasser, Henderson, Black, Yophery, Payne (here’s where it starts getting tricky. Think the four pitchers and Black are locks then went with Yophery and Payne as two of the higher ceilings on the farm but there’s probably a half dozen plus guys with similar value at that point on the list)
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- freddy peralta
- garrett mitchell
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Hopefully it's good for (website) business at the very least!!
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Kind of nice having the bye right around the midpoint of the season to assess where things stand. Offense (25.6 PPG | 9th) and defense (21.6 PPG | 11th) have both been playing right around Top Ten levels. Turnovers are a big plus on defense (19 | 2nd), but Love ripping off 10 INTs in only seven games has mitigated that somewhat and would be nice to clean up in the second half. Rush offense has also been among the best in the league at 154.8 YPG | 3rd so far. Looking at the remaining schedule the only surefire loss I see is at DET. I'd put SF and at MIN in the coin flip category. Pack should be favored in the remaining five so if they take care of business I'd say eleven or maybe twelve wins is where they end up.
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Coming into the season I would have split up these first eleven games as such... WINS (4) CHI, atBRK, UTA, TOR LOSSES (3) atBOS, atNYK on B2B, BOS COINFLIP (4) atPHI, atMEM, CLE, atCLE They are 0 W- 3 L in their three losses. They are 1 W - 3 L in their coin flip games, but no one had CLE as an unbeatable 12 W - O L juggernaut (who Milwaukee has still played closer than anyone else twice, once no Giannis) to start the season. The only two true ugly losses against clearly inferior teams so far this year were CHI and atBRK in the 2nd and 3rd games of the season. Most of the 3 W - 8 L ugly start comes down to a stacked early schedule (MEM is even 5th in NetRtg so far), and no Khris who is admittedly more of a luxury item than an everyday staple at this point. Just get to the playoffs in the three to six range with a healthy Giannis, Dame, Khris trio and they've got as good a chance as anybody against BOS or CLE.
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After winning their first game of the Emirates Cup last night Bucks are currently 2.5 games out of the #3 seed. If they can pull off the B2B with Detroit tonight that would be two in a row. Follow that up with a win at Charlotte on Saturday and it’d be an honest to goodness winning streak…it has happened before.
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Yeah, not sure how well the Yankees really line up. Agree that Smith and Messinger are probably the two best pitching prospects they'd be willing to part with. Flores had a nice year but you have to really believe in the stick because it doesn't look like he has the goods behind the dish to be anything more than a third catcher in MLB. Not a guy that appears to be on any of their lists but looks like Trent Sellers was an UDFA who put up 83.2 IP of 2.26 ERA | 3.17 FIP work mostly at A+ with a 30.1 K% and .149 AVG against in his pro debut. Jesus Rodriguez (144 wRC+) put up a very similar season to Flores (149 wRC+) while being a year younger, with a way lower K rate (14.7% to 25.3%), and playing a little further up the defensive spectrum as a 3B/C with a better CS% than Flores.
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Bohm’s bat is pretty borderline at 3B, it would be a negative at 1B outside of vs LHP or the one month he puts up a 1,050 OPS. His glove has also been pretty brutal at 1B with -6 DRS and -4 FRV in 802 career innings.
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From 2021-23 Bohm put up -40 DRS | -7 FRV at 3B. Last year was his best by the metrics at an even zero DRS and +3 FRV. I think the Brewers would live with average-ish defense at 3B for a good enough bat, but is there enough boom in Bohm’s bat? His K rate has declined from 26.6% in 2021 to 14.2% last year so that’s good. But his walk rate (6.5% career, 6.6% in 2024) is pretty uninspiring and his 102 ISO+ the last two years is barely above average so he’s not really as much of a power bat as his stature might imply. The shape of his production at the plate was pretty suspect last year too with 118 PAs of 365/441/615 thru April 28th followed by 488 PAs of 260/305/409 to finish the year. His 132 wRC+ vs LHP the last two years would be a boost to the Brewers lefty woahs, but of course that means he has a much less impressive 101 wRC+ vs RHP over that same stretch.
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Black was credited with three errors in the 79 innings he played at 3B last year. If the Brewers considered him a candidate to be a full time 3B at the MLB level his inning distribution would have been a lot less first base heavy, 637 innings. Black had more innings in the OF (103) than he did at 3B.
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If it’s the Royals I would guess Noah Cameron and Nick Loftin would be the pair. Loftin has the mix of plate discipline and defensive chops the Brewers like. Cameron is a command and change up guy who has a fringy fastball, but apparently added a cutter this year and would provide additional rotation depth for 2025. Not sure if the Royals would be hesitant to deal Cameron since he’s somewhat of a local kid, Kudma and Wolters would probably be off the table as the top two arms in the system, maybe the Brewers would go for LHP Jordan Woods (high upside play on the complex) or RHP Steve Zobac (126 IP of 3.03 FIP between A+/AA last year) instead.
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Misio had 79.2 IP at Biloxi last year and then another 17.2 at Nashville to finish the season.
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Sasaki isn’t giving up three hundred plus million dollars to come to Milwaukee. I’m guessing his primary motivation is to win World Serieses with his countrymen.
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It’s fun to dream on Sasaki but he’s foregoing three hundred plus million like Yamamoto just got by coming over early so I don’t think money will be much of a factor in his decision. Maybe Nori Aoki was his favourite player growing up and he’s a lifelong Brewer fan as a result. Maybe he’s generous of spirit and understands the most honorable thing to do would be to join a franchise that’s never won a WS before departing for large market riches in FA. Nah, he’s a Dodger.
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Lenyn Sosa has -7 DRS | -2 FRV in 762 innings at 2B. At 3B its -5 DRS | -3 FRV in 482 innings. He’s even managed -2 DRS | -1 FRV in only 41 innings at SS. Throw in -1.4 career BsR and a minuscule 3.1 BB% and he has no soft skills at all. He’s going to need to run a 120 wRC+ minimum to ever have any value. That’s 55 points over his career 65 mark and 40 points over the 80 wRC+ he posted last year. Pass.
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I didn’t say a 2-6 record is a big step up, I said their performance over the last three games has been a big step up compared to the three embarrassing earlier losses.
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Because they aren’t going to win wire to wire tonight? The last two games they lost to the undefeated Cavs by a total of three points, one of those games with no Giannis and the other on a pretty insane last second shot by Mitchell. Cleveland has won their other seven games by a combined 111 points. The last three games have been a big step up compared to the losses to CHI, BRK and MEM.
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In a macro sense as bat only no defense kind of players, sure. Black has way better contact, patience and base running skills. Hiura has better raw power. Ideally Tyler's broader base of skills gives him a higher floor, but it's certainly no guarantee.
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I don’t think the Brewers really have an OF surplus. Chourio is a superstar, Yelich/Mitchell have elevated injury risk and Frelick/Perkins are both glove first light hitting options. If Yelich and Mitchell are hurt at the same time, who is the 4th OF? I’d guess Christian’s DH time ramps up considerably this year too from the couple dozen games he has averaged there the last few seasons which will open up more time on the grass for everyone else.
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- sal frelick
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The Rockies surely value McMahon more highly than they did Mears (regardless of what surplus value might say) so something north of that. I’d think something like Brett Wichrowski and Mike Boeve would be in the neighborhood of what the Rockies would be looking for.
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Last year Bauers got 60 starts at 1B, nine in the OF, and eight at DH, plus 33 pinch hit appearances which added up to 346 PAs. I’d plan to divvy up the starts something like this entering the season… First Base Hoskins (100) Black (62) Designated Hitter Yelich (70) Contreras (42) Hoskins (25) Black (25) That would give Black ten extra starts over Bauers last year, which should get him up around 400 PAs for the year.
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Given Black's overly patient plate approach, I think keeping him in AAA with the more rigid zone any longer could be a detriment at this point. I'd plug him into the Bauers role from last year and see what he does with 400 PAs against MLB pitchers.
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Kim could be an option depending on his medicals. Might end up having to sign a one year deal to prove he’s fully healthy before hitting FA again for that big multi year contract after 2025.
