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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Everyone knew that the Cubs "overpaid" at the time to try to break a hundred year curse. The Chapman trade had as much affect on the reliever market as the Counsell contract had on the manager market.
  2. sveumrules
    No one needs to talk themselves into anything. The most Devin can be realistically expected to contribute is around four wins in one season, career high of +4.09 WPA. The odds of one year of Cortes (who's averaged 3 WAR / 150 IP the last three years) plus six years of Durbin adding up to fewer than four wins is extremely low. It's just math.
  3. sveumrules
    Yeah, looking at Steamer they have Tucker tops at 148 wRC+ and 5.5 WAR, though Contreras isn't far behind at 128 wRC+ | 5.2 WAR. Somewhat interestingly Matt McClain is 3rd among NLC position players per Steamer at 117 wRC+ | 4.0 WAR just fractions ahead of Elly De La Cruz at 111 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR. Chourio is 5th at 119 wRC+ | 3.6 WAR but assuming he picks up where he left off the last four months he should add a couple two tree wins on top of that pretty easily.
  4. sveumrules
    MLBTR saying it's Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith heading back to HOU.
  5. sveumrules
    Sal was in AA/AAA at age 22 and AAA/MLB at age 23, versus Durbin in A+/AA at age 23 and AA/AAA at age 24 so the age difference has to be taken into account. Also would have to check the park factors for their respective AA/AAA parks for a little more insight. Believe BA or BPro does them every so often, but I'm not a subscriber. Just from a visual standpoint Durbin looks stockier/stronger than Sal so hopefully that bodes well for his future power production.
  6. sveumrules
    Durbin is a five foot six inch 14th round pick out of a D-III school, those guys don't make prospect lists. Most recently he won breakout player of the year in the Arizona Fall League after hitting 312/427/548 with a league record 29 SB against only 1 CS and 17 walks compared to 6 strikeouts. Over 375 PAs in AAA this past year he hit 287/396/471 with 29 SB/3 CS and 47 BB to 37 K. He has an excellent performance record and the Brewers scouts obviously see something they like, even if internet prospectors have been slow to take note.
  7. sveumrules
    Last two years Durbin put up a 127 wRC+ over 697 PAs with an 11.3 BB% and 8.3 K%. Also managed a .153 ISO over that stretch so there is some pop in there despite the stature. 67 SB / 12 CS so he's got some wheels too. Defensively versatile I'd guess he is primarily 3B and playing 2B versus LHP. Devin's max season was +4.06 WPA. Durbin should have no problem beating that value over the next six years, not to mention the one year of Cortes could do it too (5.3 rWAR in 2022).
  8. sveumrules
    Abner is a Wild Card in the truest sense of the word...as it pertains to his impact on the Brewers 2025 season, as it pertains to where any given pitch might end up, as it pertains to the mental side of the game, and even moreso than most pitchers as it pertains to staying healthy with only one season over 50 IP and a grand total of 141 IP over six seasons. I agree the arm talent is too tantalizing to give up on at this point, but a lot of moving pieces are going to need to click together for it to ever be realized for a full 162 game season (plus hopefully some playoffs).
  9. sveumrules
    Yelich, Adames, Contreras...the current iteration of the Brewers have made multiple big trades for players under long term control and they've combined for over 50 WAR and counting. Trading for Garrett Crochet would still be a couple two tree big moves short of going "all in".
  10. sveumrules
    All gonna come down to the medicals. Sounds like Kim is targeting late April early May to be ready but that could easily spill into June and then you're missing a couple two tree months waiting on him and presumably riding an Oliver Dunn / Andruw Monasterio platoon in the meantime? And there's a decent possibility Kim will need the rest of this year to get back up to speed before maybe being in a position to return to peak form in 2026? Too much uncertainty for my tastes, but if the market settles around a Hoskins one plus one kind of deal I could see the Brewers getting involved.
  11. sveumrules
    Ahem, that's INF/OF/pitcher Miguel Briceno.
  12. sveumrules
    Not a perfect one for one, but I'd say Brewers equivalent package is something like... Teel = Quero (upper level C) Meidroth = Boeve (upper level hit tool 3B) Montgomery = Payne/Yophery (lil younger, but our highest rated OF prospects) Gonzalez = Wichrowski (big stuff at AA)
  13. sveumrules
    Meidroth should be an opening day guy for the White Sox, Teel should probably start back in AAA with a midseason call up, Gonzalez should open at AAA and will likely break MLB at some point this year if healthy so three of the guys are on the cusp. Montgomery was their first round pick this year out of Texas A&M. Looks like he didn't play after the draft so probably open at A+ and finish around AA/AAA depending how things shake out.
  14. sveumrules
    Small early season samples and all that, but Brook is at +0.8 pts/100 on defense so far this year after being -6.2 last year and -8.5 two years ago so stats prove you right. AJG is -4.2 pts/100 on defense so far this year and AJJ is at -6.4 so the young guys have been making a big impact on that end of the floor along with AJG rocking a nifty .697 TS% shooting the ball.
  15. sveumrules
    Jonathan Mayo reporting the White Sox will take Shane Smith with the 1st pick.
  16. sveumrules
    Cool for Shane to get a potential express lane to MLB. Among 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP the last two years he has some pretty impressive rankings… 2.86 xFIP (2nd) | 24.3 K-BB% (3rd) | 32.4 K% (5th) | 3.03 FIP (5th) | 2.63 ERA (7th) | .193 AVG (12th)
  17. sveumrules
    ORL is #3 in the East so far and Paolo Banchero has only played five games. They entered the game with the best defense in the NBA allowing only 103.3 PPG. Granted they were without Franz Wagner tonight too so it would have been nice to have a little easier win, but the young hungry rookie contract team gave the old max contract guys a run for their money so the “these games matter” intention of the Emirates Cup was fulfilled.
  18. sveumrules
    The interesting comp for Eovaldi is Freddy. Stats are from 2021-24 with rankings in parentheses among 133 starting pitchers with at least 300 IP over that stretch... Eovaldi (606 IP | 26th) 104 K+ (54th) | 69 BB+ (18th) | 94 HR+ (49th) 88 ERA- (40th) | 86 FIP- (34th) | 111 GB+ (25th) 12.1 rWAR (28th) | 11.9 fWAR (20th) Freddy (558 IP | 37th) 132 K+ (7th) | 104 BB+ (111th) | 97 HR+ (59th) 82 ERA- (27th) | 86 FIP- (34th) | 119 FB+ (17th) 12.9 rWAR (21st) | 11.4 fWAR (21st) They get there a little different ways - Eovaldi with control and groundballs, Freddy with strikeouts and flyballs - but the FIPs are identical and the overall value is about as close as it gets. With Freddy being six years younger and $34M cheaper over the next two years that is some pretty nice surplus value. Here is how Max Fried stacks up among those same 133 starting pitchers with at least 300 IP from 2021-24... Fried (603 IP | 29th) 104 K+ (54th) | 72 BB+ (28th) | 60 HR+ (3rd) 68 ERA- (3rd) | 77 FIP- (12th) | 126 GB+ (6th) 17.8 rWAR (4th) | 13.9 fWAR (10th) The only two pitchers in the sample with a lower ERA- than Max are Woodruff (65) and Ohtani (67), so no healthy pitcher has been better at preventing runs over the last four years. He doesn't strike anybody out, but the combination of excellent control with elite home run suppression and ground ball induction has been a successful (and lucrative) one for him.
  19. sveumrules
    Cobb is just a way better pitcher than Rea. 22-24 Cobb (317 IP) 91 ERA- | 84 FIP- 4.8 rWAR | 5.8 fWAR 23-24 Rea (292 IP) 104 ERA- | 114 FIP- 3.3 rWAR | 1.7 fWAR 2025 Cobb Steamer 127 IP of 3.69 ERA 2025 Rea Steamer 135 IP of 4.72 ERA
  20. sveumrules
    Welcome to the board! The Hoskins being from Sacto angle definitely makes the idea a little more plausible, but the A's already having Brent Rooker and Tyler Soderstrom for DH/1B probably means its still a pretty big longshot.
  21. sveumrules
    They definitely have the minor league depth to trade for him, but I'm not so sure the Ricketts would pony up to extend him beyond his one year of remaining team control.
  22. sveumrules
    One year actually. Projected for $16M in Arby's then hitting free agency. If he hits around his projections this year (148 wRC+ | 5.5 WAR) he'll be entering free agency at age 29 with a wRC+ north of 140 for his career and something like 26-27 WAR. Should be the next $300M man.
  23. sveumrules
    There definitely is. Jack Flaherty, Ian Happ and Lucas Giolito all allegedly were pushing for Harry Marino (who helped minor leaguers into the union) to replace Bruce Meyer (who led talks for the 2022 CBA). Some even characterized it as an "attempted coup" or "mutiny attempt". All three were replaced as player reps on the 2024 MLBPA subcommittee. Apparently Tony Clark's contract runs through 2027.
  24. sveumrules
    Yup. MLBPA believes the market system gets their players the most money.
  25. sveumrules
    Yeah, Ortiz should pass Burnes in on-field value provided sometime this year with team control running through 2029… Ortiz 2024 2.7 bWAR | 3.1 fWAR Burnes 2024 3.4 bWAR | 3.7 fWAR | 4.4 rWAR Anything Hall turns in is essentially gravy at this point
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