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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Think right now the hope would be he becomes something like Frelick at the plate with Perkins defense? That’d be a fine 3rd starting OF or a high end 4th OF kind of outcome. Problem is Frelick needs really good plate discipline (his 0.58 BB/K ranks 37th of 271 players min. 500 PA the last two years) and base running (+4.4 BsR | 42nd) to overcome his complete lack of power (.084 ISO | 268th). Lara hasn’t quite displayed either of those traits to the same levels Sal did in the minors… Lara MiLB 9.5 BB% | 14.9 K% 0.64 BB/K 82 SB / 31 CS Frelick MiLB 10.3 BB% | 11.8 K% 0.88 BB/K 44 SB / 14 CS Obviously the big difference is Sal was an older player farther up the ladder and Luis is still a teenager for another month so he has time on his side, but for now it looks like his offense will come down to how his hit tool shakes out which is a lot riskier without the plate discipline buttressing things.
  2. sveumrules
    Agreed. With one more year of team control over Edman at $9.5M, plus a $5M team option on Rojas coming off a 111 wRC+ | 2.8 WAR season, I’d probably put the Dodgers behind both the Giants and Braves among the potential Adames destinations.
  3. sveumrules
    There are 46 players with at least 600 innings playing third base the last two years. Monasterio has graded out at +4 DRS (17th) and -1 FRV (31st). I’d guess the Brewers internal evaluations are closer to the DRS number otherwise they wouldn’t have kept him around as the primary backup IF last year and given him 142 PAs with a 68 wRC+. McMahon has come in at +27 DRS (3rd) and +14 FRV (2nd). He’s right up there with Ke’Bryan Hayes and Matt Chapman among the games best hot corner defenders.
  4. sveumrules
    They should change it so you get points for doinks. It’s a lot harder to hit one of those skinny little poles than it is to kick it into the big empty space in between them. I’d do two points for a doink that doesn’t go through on a field goal try, and four points for doinked field goal that does go through. It would inject a fun chaos element, introduce additional gambling line items and most importantly allow for this scenario… …two seconds on the clock down three points the trailing team lines up for the game tying kick, it’s up…and it’s off the upright…but goes through for a four point doink off win.
  5. sveumrules
    League average wRC+ at 3B has gone from 100 in 2021 to 105 in 2022 to 96 in 2023 to 97 last year. McMahon has a 101 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021 so he has essentially been average as long as he doesn't face lefties (only a 71 wRC+ against southpaws).
  6. sveumrules
    At the deadline seemed like a lot of people thought the Cardinals stole Fedde giving up only Edman, but here we are now and STL went 3 W - 7 L in Fedde's 10 starts and Edman just won NLCS MVP.
  7. sveumrules
    Everyone has struggles (except John Rocker and Joe Niekro apparently). Whatever struggle Rivera experienced in the postseason was exponentially less than any player ever. Any Yankee fan still clinging to his tiny percentage of unawesome games over the five World Series titles is probably pretty miserable to be around anyway.
  8. sveumrules
    Two pitchers in postseason history have thrown at least 20 innings with a 0.00 ERA. John Rocker and Joe Niekro.
  9. sveumrules
    People complain when a couple wild cards that don’t deserve it get there like last year. People complain when the two dominant historic franchises that were both number one seeds get there. People complain.
  10. sveumrules
    141 innings with a 0.70 ERA in the postseason. Put up a zero eighty six times, allowed one earned nine times. Only gave up two earned once. Was credited with one single solitary loss versus eight wins and forty two saves (twenty nine of which were four outs or more) in ninety six appearances. His +11.38 Win Probability Added in the postseason is more than Schilling (+4.07), Smoltz (+3.35) and Pettite (+3.20) have combined in second through fourth place. Hard for me to classify that as struggles plural.
  11. sveumrules
    There are 275 relievers with at least 100 IP in the 2020's. Devin's at... 222 IP (45th) | 179 K%+ (2nd) | 139 BB%+ (244th) | 44 HR9+ (11th) | 59 AVG+ (1st) | 41 ERA- (2nd) | 53 FIP- (2nd) | 59 xFIP- (3rd) | 2.55 SIERA (6th) | 9.4 rWAR (2nd) | 7.6 fWAR (2nd) | +14.40 WPA (1st) The only real blemish to his regular season record has been missing time this year and walking too many guys. Other than that it's pretty elite across the board. Edwin Diaz has him beat in K%+ (182), FIP- (51) and xFIP- (57). Clase has him beat in ERA- (39), rWAR (9.5), and fWAR (8.5). But their combined WPA (+9.24 for Clase and +4.74 for Diaz) is still less than Devin has by himself.
  12. sveumrules
    It's kind of funny looking at Adames, Turang and Ortiz specifically... DRS says Adames (-16), Turang (+21), and Ortiz (+7) for a combined total of +12. FRV says Adames (0), Turang (+4), and Ortiz (+8) also summing up to +12. Both systems are getting to the same end result, just in drastically different ways (at least with regards to Adames and Turang).
  13. sveumrules
    Position Player Locks next year... C (2): Contreras, Haase...Quero in waiting IF (3): Hoskins, Turang, Ortiz OF (5) : Yelich, Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick, Perkins I would guess Black takes over the Bauers role, that's eleven. I'd prefer an upgrade over Monasterio, but he's lined up for twelve. Only spot I really see them devoting resources to is Adames replacement.
  14. sveumrules
    Last two years the Brewers +58 DRS and +43 FRV from their outfielders are both 2nd best in MLB. I think they prefer having multiple CFers out there for run prevention purposes. Perkins and Frelick derive most of their value from being plus OF defenders, but Mitchell hit for a 126 wRC+ last year and is at a 123 wRC+ for his career so he has plenty of bat for the other corner spot opposite Chourio when Yelich is DHing.
  15. sveumrules
    Since 2021... Adames (2,498 PAs) 242/319/452 (110 wRC+) 10.0 BB% | 26.4 K% +36.3 DEF | 15.6 WAR Chapman (2,471 PAs) 232/324/431 (112 wRC+) 11.1 BB% | 28.1 K% +35.1 DEF | 16.0 WAR No two players are exactly alike, but dang if that ain't some serious Finkle is Einhorn type stuff going on there. The Giants just extended Chapman at 6/151 before he could opt out and test free agency. Adames is two years younger and will be on the open market.
  16. sveumrules
    I don’t see the Brewers being too motivated to move an OF this offseason with Yelich and Mitchell having varying degrees of injury concerns they’ll need the depth, plus none of the trade candidates make any money yet so it wouldn’t help with payroll and there’s no one on the cusp ready to backfill the spot. Also not sure the Brewers have much of a rotation vacancy that needs addressing via trade capital. Peralta, Myers, Civale, and Rea are four spots. Woodruff and Gasser coming back from injury. Ashby and Hall will likely prepare for potential SP usage next year too. Misio, Logan Henderson, Chad Patrick, Carlos Rodriguez, KC Hunt and Shane Smith might line up as the best rotation in the International League.
  17. sveumrules
    Top Four teams in the NFL by point differential are all in the NFC North at the moment... MIN (+63) DET (+60) CHI (+47) GBP (+41)
  18. sveumrules
    Obviously he's been a little bit older, but looking at that same last two years minimum 150 IP across all levels leaderboard Shane Smith has some pretty impressive rankings too... 2.86 xFIP (2nd) | 24.3 K-BB% (3rd) | 32.4 K% (4th, tied with Misio) | 1.01 WHIP (5th) | 3.03 FIP (5th) | 2.63 ERA (7th) | .193 AVG (12th) | 77.6 LOB% (21st)
  19. sveumrules
    He’d be an easy Rule 5 pick with MLB ready stuff and command for a bullpen role. His change up is especially nasty. There are 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP across all levels of the minors the last two years. Logan ranks… 34.0 K% (1st) | 27.3 K-BB% (1st) | 0.94 WHIP (2nd) | 3.08 xFIP (5th) | .191 AVG (9th) | 78.0 LOB% (18th) | 3.04 ERA (23rd) | 6.6 BB% (46th) | 3.53 FIP (54th)
  20. sveumrules
    Jose Ramirez thru age 19 534 PAs | 6.0 BB% | 8.1 K% | .116 ISO Juan Baez thru age 19 838 PAs | 6.7 BB% | 10.9 K% | .116 ISO Pretty crazy how close they are right down to matching isolated sluggings and everything. Baez's K% is a few points higher, but the average K rate in the 2024 Carolina League was 25.3% compared to 19.5% in the 2012 Midwest League when Ramirez was a 19 year old in A ball so that is mostly contextual. Ramirez even went 29 SB | 13 CS (69.0%) thru age 19, a tick worse than Baez at 47 SB | 19 CS (71.2%) so far. And Jose has turned himself into one of the best base runners in the league with his +40.3 BSR since 2016 third highest in all of MLB behind only Trea Turner (+58.9) and Billy Hamilton (+44.3), just ahead of guys like Yelich (+37.5) and Mookie (+34.2). The big difference is that Ramirez had the platoon advantage every at bat and put up a .366 BABIP on all those balls in play resulting in a 342/383/459 (131 wRC+) line whereas Baez has only run a .321 BABIP for a 295/347/411 (107 wRC+) triple slash thus far. Obviously comparing any 19 year old to a future HOFer who is one of the greatest player development stories of all time is pure unadulterated folly, but some of the same ingredients are definitely there and it's October so here we are.
  21. sveumrules
    Were the Braun and Yelich extensions really blunders though? Braun got paid $95M once adjusting for the COVID shortened season to put up a 117 wRC+ and 8.2 WAR from 2016-20 on Brewers teams that went a combined 373 W - 336 L with three playoff trips and one just missed during what were supposed to be the early years of rebuild. Sure, from a pure dollars per win standpoint they overpaid, but Braun was still a contributing member to teams that exceeded expectations at the time. Yelich's extension started in 2022 so he has gotten paid $78M to put up a 123 wRC+ and 8.9 WAR so far. In 2023 the average price at the top of the market was around $10M per win making Yelich a slight bargain to this point.
  22. sveumrules
    Good thing Narveson has only missed a kick in four of six games then.
  23. sveumrules
    Whether no salary cap works or doesn't work is kind of immaterial at this point because the Players Association has been pretty unwaveringly against one for some time now. Besides, salary caps are Socialist and baseball is American.
  24. sveumrules
    The first guy that comes to mind for me when I think hit tool only is Donovan Solano. Since 2019 he has 1,838 PAs with an 80 BB+ | 89 K+ | 119 AVG+ | 71 ISO+ which shakes out to a 112 wRC+. His -8.5 BsR is even somewhat reminiscent of Baez too. Going back to Jean Segura upthread, from 2016-22 he put up 3,681 PAs of 69 BB+ | 63 K+ | 116 AVG+ | 82 ISO+ | 109 wRC+. Less walks and strikeouts, a little more power than Solano, so why did he get double the PAs? Defense (he was a capable SS/plus 2B) and base running (+14.1 BsR) of course. The pie in the sky it’s fun to dream is Baez discovers a power stroke and some modicum of selectivity en route to going all Jose Ramirez on the league. Absent that, I think one can squint and see an outcome where Juan ends up as something of a Segura-lite since he’ll never be SS capable and is unlikely to be a big positive on the bases. Even if he just ended up as a more defensively capable version of Solano that would still be a pretty big win all things considered.
  25. sveumrules
    Lowe makes a lot of sense in the hitting, likely availability, and cost departments, but between age, injury history, and never really being a great defender to begin with I’m not sure the Brewers would view him as an everyday 2B. Think it’d be more of a super sub type role where he maybe plays like 30-40 games each at DH, 1B, and 2B.
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