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Who is untouchable on the 25 man roster


Over the weekend, i had a discussion with a bar with a guy who is adamant that the brewers should not trade Parra for any reason, to play CF if and when GoGo is traded. That made me think who do the posters think should not be touched. I hope this isn't repetitive, but didn't really see a thread like this.

 

 

my list isn't large:

1) Blazek

2) Jungmann

3) Knebel

4) Smith

5) Nelson

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No one should be untouchable.

 

We are entering a rebuild/retool era. We should be flexible. To declare someone untouchable only limits your options. None of our players is so good or so critical to the team that we shouldn't consider moving them if the right offer came along. I'm not saying you should be eager to trade certain guys, but if you can make the team better, it's smart to consider it.

 

I love Will Smith, but if Toronto calls and offers me Daniel Norris, I'm wise to make that move.

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I would trade any of those guys in the list of 5. I don't see a single one of those guys being an All Star or high-value player, save for maybe Jungmann/Nelson taking the next step. They're all relievers save for Nelson/Jungmann, which are nice to have, but if we rebuild, will be too expensive/not around soon and all are very volatile in stats and injury.

 

To answer the question - I will stick with what others are saying - nobody is untouchable. I'd even consider trading Taylor Jungmann right now.

 

Jungmann is pitching slightly better than a certain pitcher that didn't deserve to be in the Majors last year (or ever) but had a nice "surprise the hitters" stretch of games to open his career. That pitcher was Shane Greene, and the other teams in the trade got Robbie Ray and Didi Gregorius in the deal, both of whom will add value over their control-time. Shane Greene will enjoy matching his 1.5 career minors WHIP for the next several years when the Tigers finally give up on him this year - all because the Tigers got excited by a lucky stretch of grounders that he threw for a month with the Yankees. Moral of the story is that all it takes is one silly GM to overreact to things like Jungmann's first month.

 

So, Jungmann would be the one guy I'd be skeptical of trading, but if somebody wants to pay me for a month of over-achieving after "decent" (Greene was terrible) minors production, I'll take it.

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No one is untouchable for me either. I would list players on a continuum of how likely the Brewers would be to get adequate value back in return, starting with easiest to get value for in trade:

 

Parra (almost every contending team seems to be interested - the Brewers may actually get back more than we gave up to get him, which is hard to believe)

Ramirez (trade-able, and whatever we get return will be worth more than Ramirez retiring and receiving nothing)

Cotts (very Cotts-ian year - should be valuable to someone)

Adam Lind (performing well/Brewers need to trade him before back gives out - many contending teams would have a use for him)

Carlos Gomez (would definitely be interest, but I doubt the Brewers move him in the next 10 days)

Rodriguez (would be a lot more interest without the contract length)

Smith (I still think he should be tried as a starter again, so I think his potential value is a lot higher than it is now, but someone would probably overpay for him as a reliever if they really needed a LH reliever)

Segura (probably some teams that would still give up a valuable piece)

Maldonado (probably some teams that would still give up a semi-valuable piece)

Peterson (why not?)

Fiers (intriguing trade candidate, though getting value back considering he's under control through 2019 might be tough)

Lucroy (easily the most valuable catcher that would be available for trade, but market is somewhat narrow)

Davis (trade value is pretty low coming off of injury)

Lohse (I guess if another team offered something for him...)

Hector Gomez (I guess if another team offered something for him...)

Jeffress (probably could get something, but I think the Brewers value him, maybe more than they should)

Blazek (difficult to imagine Brewers could get sufficient value back, especially if they think he can start next year)

Perez (Brewers may as well roll the dice and see if he can keep playing well throughout the rest of year)

Gennett (still recovering from sucky start to year/demotion - could rebuild value to where he'd be trade-able in the offseason)

Peralta (injured, and the Brewers need someone to soak up innings next year - a team keen on ground ball pitchers might have some interest)

Knebel (teams not going to give up a lot for someone without a lot of major league experience, at least by himself)

Broxton (anything in return is valuable, but who would trade for him?)

Jungmann (imagine the Brewers would have to be overwhelmed, though there might be something to shopping him while he's hot)

Nelson (imagine the Brewers would have to be overwhelmed, and has pitched so-so this year)

Garza (contract makes it next to impossible to get value back)

Braun (contract makes it next to impossible to get value back)

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No one is untouchable.

 

I will throw this out as a talking point, not what I am advocating: Is Jungmann the type of player that should be traded because of his sky high value right now? Like selling a stock when it surprisingly spikes to unplanned levels?

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The following group's chances of being traded over the next year are next to nil because Brewers currently value them higher than their market, because of their relatively young ages, ability to contribute in the short term, and cost effective control.

 

For that reason, I rate them untouchable.

 

Gennett (save one horrendous month has been effective offensive contributor since 2013 and more than adequate with the glove)

Perez (has earned first look as full time 3B replacement by raking since becoming a Brewer and still just 24)

Davis (current role in platoon appears temporary. Career .483 slugger in pitching dominant era)

Nelson (when on, most dominant starter on team, de-facto ace)

Peralta (at worst a very good 3rd starter, still room for growth into a 2)

Smith (only late inning lefty, also could potentially start)

Jungmann (couldn't have gotten off to better career start....jury out on where he lands in relation to Nelson/Peralta. Might pass both)

Knebel (down the road closing potential)

Blazek (either starting or relieving is big in plans)

 

 

Lucroy (2 more seasons of inexpensive control) is also untouchable due to fact they can't get enough value back and they lack an heir apparent at the position.

 

Braun is untradeable but not untouchable.

 

In theory no player is untouchable. In practice though, there are players that teams value higher than their worth in a deal. Brewers value very highly the guys on that list, more so than other teams would if they were to propose a deal for them.

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Zero. Nobody.

 

The young, controllable pitchers would be tough to trade, but not untouchable, everyone else would be easy for me to at least discuss.

 

There are good players here, and there are good contracts here, but between age, production, and dollars, there's no one on this team who can't be moved.

 

It would be tough to get an offer I'd take for guys like Nelson, Jungmann, Blazek, and Jeffress, because I'd essentially want what they already are in return.

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The following group's chances of being traded over the next year are next to nil because Brewers currently value them higher than their market, because of their relatively young ages, ability to contribute in the short term, and cost effective control.

 

For that reason, I rate them untouchable.

 

...

 

Devil's advocate (and this is mostly my opinion) - if the Brewers are hoping to do a full rebuild, what good do Davis, Gennett, Peralta do? If one believes that the timeframe is 3 years, those guys will be in their late arbitration years by the time the Brewers are good again.

 

You're right that maybe the Brewers have a higher value for them than other teams, but none of these guys have star potential(I like Gennett's platoon advantage, always was a Davis fan, etc. so I do like these players)...so if somebody wants several years of control of pretty good players and they are offering younger players, why not?

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I'm surprised anyone would label Parra untouchable when he is in fact one of the most appealing trade chips on the team for us as a potential free agent having a career year.

 

Number one, Parra is not an especially good centerfielder anyway. He's more suited for the corners. Center doesn't play to his strengths. Number two, if we trade Gomez we're obviously taking a step back and rebuilding and having a good veteran replacement available isn't a high priority.

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There are A LOT more than 5 players they shouldn't be motivated to trade. Everyone should be on the block though. It isnt like we have a Mike Trout or a younger Ryan Braun. No one on this team is that special.
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It's been stated already, but nobody should be un-touchable. With that said, I highly doubt anyone with 3 or more controllable years could be traded for a favorable return. But sure, you listen to any offer for anyone.

 

For example, Fiers is drawing interest from more than one team. It would be hard to let him go at this point- a solid starter with several controllable years left. That's exactly the type of players the Brewers need. BUT, if someone blows your doors off with an offer you take it.

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While I wouldn't say "untouchable," it's hard for me to imagine the Brewers getting sufficient value to justify a trade of Mike Fiers, whose effective without elite "stuff," already on the wrong side of 30, but still cost-controlled (including arbitration) for several seasons beyond next year.

 

If we didn't have him, it would cost a lot more to replace him as a #3-5 SP than I think the Brewers would get from any potential trade.

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I would want the doors blown off, because 3.5 controllable years is major value in itself...that said, what good is 3.5 years when you are planning 2-3 years to rebuild? A balancing point might have to be found to get great value for the controllable player while he still has the controllable asset to his name.

 

Of course, I am saying this with the assumption that Mark is willing to do a 2-3 year rebuild, which he is likely not.

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This is just a variation on what others have said, but it's a complex issue, so I'll take my shot.

 

I think when most of us say "untouchable," what we really mean is something like "highly unlikely, based on what we know about past trades, to bring sufficient value back." The trick in fleshing out that idea, of course, is assessing "value." More precisely, some kinds of players are hard to value. A top, young prospect with lots of growth potential, like Arcia, is very tough to price. Trading him even for another team's equivalent prospect would be a crap shoot of epic proportions. At that point risk aversion kicks in, and you don't trade the guy.

 

"Value" also means different things when a team is at different levels of success. An older or expiring (contract) player who's great right now is worth more to a contender than to the Brewers. A three years-away prospect is worth more to us than a contender. We all know these things. The complication is that the prospect is always harder to value, because he's developing. Thus, the team trading the reliable vet for prospects wants to price the prospects based on a conservative estimate of their value. Only a contender plugging a big need will play that game.

 

What all that means for the Brewers' 25-man roster is that our young, good, team-control guys are (a) valuable to us in their own right, and (b) relatively hard to price, along with our inherent posture of © wanting to trade for other teams' hard-to-price prospects. That makes those guys almost "untouchable" in the sense I'm understanding that term. I think that group likely includes:

 

Peralta

Nelson

Jungmann

Fiers (not young, but very good and cost-controlled)

Knebel (I don't care much about bullpen guys, but he's raw and unproven with tons of potential)

 

That category arguably also includes:

 

Lucroy (serious uncertainty for me whether he could be an asset to the next good Brewers team)

Davis (I think people underestimate the value of his power bat, and if he consolidates his plate-discipline gains, look out)

Smith (if Toby's right that he could start effectively)

Blazek (if he can start)

Jeffress (slightly over-ripe version of Knebel)

 

Again, I'm not saying "don't take calls on any of these guys." I'm saying the calls you get are highly probable not to be worth taking.

 

Braun's in a weird category by himself. He's very good, and I think he's going to age well. He's about to get very expensive. But if this team is ready to contend in, say, three years, he could still be a very useful player even at his salary. Or not. Also, teams now still want a discount on him based on The PEDs, The Lie, and The Past Two Crappy Seasons. At this point I'd probably want more for him than anyone would pay.

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the 5 players i have listed, are players the brewers shouldn't be motivated to move, but as I said, if a team wants to overpay for them, have at it.

 

Three of them are relievers. If we're going through a rebuild, we should be motivated to move three young, cost controlled relievers because some teams are likely to overpay for them.

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While I wouldn't say "untouchable," it's hard for me to imagine the Brewers getting sufficient value to justify a trade of Mike Fiers, whose effective without elite "stuff," already on the wrong side of 30, but still cost-controlled (including arbitration) for several seasons beyond next year.

 

If we didn't have him, it would cost a lot more to replace him as a #3-5 SP than I think the Brewers would get from any potential trade.

So a couple of folks said that they have a hard time imagining the Brewers getting back sufficient value to justify a trade of Fiers. But that means one of two things: 1) he has a lot of value to the Brewers, or B) he has little value to others.

 

Given that he is effective and cost-controlled for several seasons, that eliminates B) above. But if he has a lot of value to the Brewers for those reasons... wouldn't he have a lot of value to other teams as well? Isn't this a classic case of undervaluing your own players and overvaluing other team's players?

 

If you knew nothing else about a player except that he was an effective major-league starter and cost-controlled for several seasons beyond next year, wouldn't you say that player has a lot of value to any major league team? Why would the cost to the Brewers to acquire him or replace him be any more than the cost of another team to acquire him?

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While I wouldn't say "untouchable," it's hard for me to imagine the Brewers getting sufficient value to justify a trade of Mike Fiers, whose effective without elite "stuff," already on the wrong side of 30, but still cost-controlled (including arbitration) for several seasons beyond next year.

 

If we didn't have him, it would cost a lot more to replace him as a #3-5 SP than I think the Brewers would get from any potential trade.

So a couple of folks said that they have a hard time imagining the Brewers getting back sufficient value to justify a trade of Fiers. But that means one of two things: 1) he has a lot of value to the Brewers, or B) he has little value to others.

 

Given that he is effective and cost-controlled for several seasons, that eliminates B) above. But if he has a lot of value to the Brewers for those reasons... wouldn't he have a lot of value to other teams as well? Isn't this a classic case of undervaluing your own players and overvaluing other team's players?

 

If you knew nothing else about a player except that he was an effective major-league starter and cost-controlled for several seasons beyond next year, wouldn't you say that player has a lot of value to any major league team? Why would the cost to the Brewers to acquire him or replace him be any more than the cost of another team to acquire him?

 

Fiers is a number 2-3 starter but doesn't have the stuff that makes go crazy. Even here people think of him at a back end starter. So because of his perceived worth versus actual worth its difficult to see a decent deal being made for him.

 

He's the anti-Peralta, the guy who people think is a top end starter when everything he's done points to him being a #4 at best.

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