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When Does The Lockout End? Answer: March 10th, 2022


jjgott
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If you had to guess when do you think the lockout ends?

  1. Before Arb Figures Exchanged (~ middle of January)
  2. Before Spring Training (Pitchers/Catchers ~ Feb 14th)
  3. Before Start of Season (Little/no ST, all 162 games are played)
  4. After Start of Season (Fewer than 162 games are played)

Edited by jjgott
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I'd go #3, happens about a week into the regular season, early enough where they can just reschedule and still get 162 games in. Both sides are so greedy that they really won't be motivated enough to get a deal done until the reality sinks in that owners will lose revenue and players will miss checks.
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3 is my first guess, 4 is my second guess

 

No one involved cares about spring training. No one involved is in any rush whatsoever (always last minute deals).

I tried to log in on my iPad. Turns out it was an etch-a-sketch and I don't own an iPad. Also, I'm out of vodka.
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I'm going to guess that they won't risk losing another significant chunk of a season after 2020. They lost basically an entire season worth of gate revenue and 2/3 of a season of tv revenue in 2020. They lost a lot of gate revenue in 2021. In a hypothetical scenario where they lockout doesn't end until sometime into the season, they'd need a few weeks of ST to get ready, and then you're talking middle may/June to start games, so a 100 - 120 game schedule. They're just not going to allow themselves to lose that much revenue AGAIN.
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I'm going to guess that they won't risk losing another significant chunk of a season after 2020. They lost basically an entire season worth of gate revenue and 2/3 of a season of tv revenue in 2020. They lost a lot of gate revenue in 2021. In a hypothetical scenario where they lockout doesn't end until sometime into the season, they'd need a few weeks of ST to get ready, and then you're talking middle may/June to start games, so a 100 - 120 game schedule. They're just not going to allow themselves to lose that much revenue AGAIN.

 

I agree with this. I think they push it right up to when Spring Training would typically begin, maybe a week or two into that and then come to an agreement.

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I'm going to guess that they won't risk losing another significant chunk of a season after 2020. They lost basically an entire season worth of gate revenue and 2/3 of a season of tv revenue in 2020. They lost a lot of gate revenue in 2021. In a hypothetical scenario where they lockout doesn't end until sometime into the season, they'd need a few weeks of ST to get ready, and then you're talking middle may/June to start games, so a 100 - 120 game schedule. They're just not going to allow themselves to lose that much revenue AGAIN.

 

I agree with this. I think they push it right up to when Spring Training would typically begin, maybe a week or two into that and then come to an agreement.

 

But the sides are pretty far apart in negotiations, right? Not much to go on now to think sides are going to get together quickly on important topics like luxury tax, revenue sharing, arbitration/free agency, team control time, universal draft, competitive balance, etc.

Small market owners are going to have their heels dug in on some of these topics less they have even less opportunity to compete. If the Tampa model is, in essence, being attacked by the PA for using cheap, young players to compete yearly, then roughly half of the teams are going to have real issues to come to any deal where they are being forced to spend/lose more $ or trade off good players even earlier.

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Both $ide$ have too much at $take to let thi$ drag out too long.

 

The can will likely get kicked down the road until the next CBA on a number of issues that should have been addressed a couple two tree CBAs ago, but hey, at least there will still be baseball.

 

Three hour forty five minute long 3-1 game with 37 combined strikeouts, 9 walks, 3 HBP & 4 hits (2 of which are HR) on a Tuesday night baseball.

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Both $ide$ have too much at $take to let thi$ drag out too long.

 

The can will likely get kicked down the road until the next CBA on a number of issues that should have been addressed a couple two tree CBAs ago, but hey, at least there will still be baseball.

 

Three hour forty five minute long 3-1 game with 37 combined strikeouts, 9 walks, 3 HBP & 4 hits (2 of which are HR) on a Tuesday night baseball.

 

Both are going to be plenty bullheaded. Logic and reason say this will not affect the regular season, but idk. If they can cancel a WS in 94, they can start a season a few weeks later. Drops in the bucket if it means a longer term change for their benefit.

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Both $ide$ have too much at $take to let thi$ drag out too long.

 

The can will likely get kicked down the road until the next CBA on a number of issues that should have been addressed a couple two tree CBAs ago, but hey, at least there will still be baseball.

 

Three hour forty five minute long 3-1 game with 37 combined strikeouts, 9 walks, 3 HBP & 4 hits (2 of which are HR) on a Tuesday night baseball.

The problem is that both sides probably would give up 50 games to make the deal 1% better for them

I tried to log in on my iPad. Turns out it was an etch-a-sketch and I don't own an iPad. Also, I'm out of vodka.
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I was wondering about what players would actually be eligible to vote for the CBA. Do the guys who've already signed overseas get to vote? What about guys who retired recently and have signed to coach or work in front offices or haven't signed at all?

 

The MLBPA website says this:

Who is eligible for membership in the Association?

All players, managers, coaches and trainers who hold a signed contract with a Major League club are eligible for membership in the Association. In collective bargaining, the Association represents around 1,200 players, or the number of players on each club's 40-man roster, in addition to any players on the Injured List.

 

It says "hold a signed contract". To me, that means that current free agents aren't members. I also find it interesting that managers, coaches, and trainers are members. Especially since most coaches and managers are basically front office employees nowadays.

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